Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A model-framed evaluation of elephant effects on tree and fire dynamics in African savannas

There is a concern that high densities of elephants in southern Africa could lead to the overall reduction of other forms of biodiversity. We present a grid-based model of elephant-savanna dynamics, which differs from previous elephant-vegetation models by accounting for woody plant demographics, tree-grass interactions, stochastic environmental variables (fire and rainfall), and spatial contagion of fire and tree recruitment. The model projects changes in height structure and spatial pattern of trees over periods of centuries. The vegetation component of the model produces long-term tree-grass coexistence, and the emergent fire frequencies match those reported for southern African savannas. Including elephants in the savanna model had the expected effect of reducing woody plant cover, mainly via increased adult tree mortality, although at an elephant density of 1.0 elephant/km2, woody plants still persisted for over a century. We tested three different scenarios in addition to our default assumptions. (1) Reducing mortality of adult trees after elephant use, mimicking a more browsing-tolerant tree species, mitigated the detrimental effect of elephants on the woody population. (2) Coupling germination success (increased seedling recruitment) to elephant browsing further increased tree persistence, and (3) a faster growing woody component allowed some woody plant persistence for at least a century at a density of 3 elephants/km2. Quantitative models of the kind presented here provide a valuable tool for exploring the consequences of management decisions involving the manipulation of elephant population densities. © 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dynamic agent composition for large-scale agent-based models

PURPOSE: This paper describes dynamic agent composition, used to support the development of flexible and extensible large-scale agent-based models (ABMs). This approach was motivated by a need to extend and modify, with ease, an ABM with an underlying networked structure as more information becomes available. Flexibility was also sought after so that simulations are set up with ease, without the need to program. METHODS: The dynamic agent composition approach consists in having agents, whose implementation has been broken into atomic units, come together at runtime to form the complex system representation on which simulations are run. These components capture information at a fine level of detail and provide a vast range of combinations and options for a modeller to create ABMs. RESULTS: A description of the dynamic agent composition is given in this paper, as well as details about its implementation within MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model), a software framework which is applied to the planning of the electricity distribution network. Illustrations of the implementation of the dynamic agent composition are consequently given for that domain throughout the paper. It is however expected that this approach will be beneficial to other problem domains, especially those with a networked structure, such as water or gas networks. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic agent composition has many advantages over the way agent-based models are traditionally built for the users, the developers, as well as for agent-based modelling as a scientific approach. Developers can extend the model without the need to access or modify previously written code; they can develop groups of entities independently and add them to those already defined to extend the model. Users can mix-and-match already implemented components to form large-scales ABMs, allowing them to quickly setup simulations and easily compare scenarios without the need to program. The dynamic agent composition provides a natural simulation space over which ABMs of networked structures are represented, facilitating their implementation; and verification and validation of models is facilitated by quickly setting up alternative simulations.

Using viewer’s facial expression and heart rate for sports video highlights detection

Viewer interests, evoked by video content, can potentially identify the highlights of the video. This paper explores the use of facial expressions (FE) and heart rate (HR) of viewers captured using camera and non-strapped sensor for identifying interesting video segments. The data from ten subjects with three videos showed that these signals are viewer dependent and not synchronized with the video contents. To address this issue, new algorithms are proposed to effectively combine FE and HR signals for identifying the time when viewer interest is potentially high. The results show that, compared with subjective annotation and match report highlights, ‘non-neutral’ FE and ‘relatively higher and faster’ HR is able to capture 60%-80% of goal, foul, and shot-on-goal soccer video events. FE is found to be more indicative than HR of viewer’s interests, but the fusion of these two modalities outperforms each of them.

Which values?: Matching Schwartz's ten values constructs with the Nine Values for Australian Schooling

This study set out to determine which values are represented in the National Framework for Values Education in Australian Schools by matching Schwartz's ten values constructs to the Nine Values for Australian Schooling and examining the values orientations of contemporary young people, specifically Grade 8 girls from one State High School in South East Queensland. This was achieved by using the Schwartz Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ) as well as thematic analysis. Key findings were that there was a match between the Grade 8 girls values and some of the Nine Values however not others. Also, that not all of Schwartz's values are represented in the Nine Values for Australian Schooling, and certain values could be said to be omitted from the Framework and certain privileged.

GABAergic inhibition in the fear conditioning circuit of the lateral amygdala is potentiated by dopamine D1 agonists

Auditory fear conditioning is dependent on auditory signaling from the medial geniculate (MGm) and the auditory cortex (TE3) to principal neurons of the lateral amygdala (LA). Local circuit GABAergic interneurons are known to inhibit LA principal neurons via fast and slow IPSP's. Stimulation of MGm and TE3 produces excitatory post-synaptic potentials in both LA principal and interneurons, followed by inhibitory post-synaptic potentials. Manipulations of D1 receptors in the lateral and basal amygdala modulate the retrieval of learned association between an auditory CS and foot shock. Here we examined the effects of D1 agonists on GABAergic IPSP's evoked by stimulation of MGm and TE3 afferents in vitro. Whole cell patch recordings were made from principal neurons of the LA, at room temperature, in coronal brain slices using standard methods. Stimulating electrodes were placed on the fiber tracts medial to the LA and at the external capsule/layer VI border dorsal to the LA to activate (0.1-0.2mA) MGm and TE3 afferents respectively. Neurons were held at -55.0 mV by positive current injection to measure the amplitude of the fast IPSP. Changes in input resistance and membrane potential were measured in the absence of current injection. Stimulation of MGm or TE3 afferents produced EPSP's in the majority of principal neurons and in some an EPSP/IPSP sequence. Stimulation of MGm afferents produced IPSP's with amplitudes of -2.30 ± 0.53 mV and stimulation of TE3 afferents produced IPSP's with amplitudes of -1.98 ± 1.26 mV. Bath application of 20μM SKF38393 increased IPSP amplitudes to -5.94 ± 1.62 mV (MGm, n=3) and-5.46 ± 0.31 mV (TE3, n=3). Maximal effect occurred <10mins. A small increase in resting membrane potential and decrease in input resistance were observed. These data suggest that DA modulates both the auditory thalamic and auditory cortical inputs to the LA fear conditioning circuit via local GABAergic circuits. Supported by NIMH Grants 00956, 46516, and 58911.

Structural complexity in structural health monitoring: Preliminary experimental modal testing and analysis

Many researchers in the field of civil structural health monitoring have developed and tested their methods on simple to moderately complex laboratory structures such as beams, plates, frames, and trusses. Field work has also been conducted by many researchers and practitioners on more complex operating bridges. Most laboratory structures do not adequately replicate the complexity of truss bridges. This paper presents some preliminary results of experimental modal testing and analysis of the bridge model presented in the companion paper, using the peak picking method, and compares these results with those of a simple numerical model of the structure. Three dominant modes of vibration were experimentally identified under 15 Hz. The mode shapes and order of the modes matched those of the numerical model; however, the frequencies did not match.

Automatic image scaling for place recognition in changing environments

Robustness to variations in environmental conditions and camera viewpoint is essential for long-term place recognition, navigation and SLAM. Existing systems typically solve either of these problems, but invariance to both remains a challenge. This paper presents a training-free approach to lateral viewpoint- and condition-invariant, vision-based place recognition. Our successive frame patch-tracking technique infers average scene depth along traverses and automatically rescales views of the same place at different depths to increase their similarity. We combine our system with the condition-invariant SMART algorithm and demonstrate place recognition between day and night, across entire 4-lane-plus-median-strip roads, where current algorithms fail.

The subcortical confinement hypothesis: A neurological model for schizotypal hallucinations

Introduction Different types of hallucinations are symptomatic of different conditions. Schizotypal hallucinations are unique in that they follow existing delusional narrative patterns: they are often bizarre, they are generally multimodal, and they are particularly vivid (the experience of a newsreader abusing you personally over the TV is both visual and aural. Patients who feel and hear silicone chips under their skin suffer from haptic hallucinations as well as aural ones, etc.) Although there are a number of hypotheses for hallucinations, few cogently grapple the sheer bizarreness of the ones experienced in schizotypal psychosis. Methods A review-based hypothesis, traversing theory from the molecular level to phenomenological expression as a distinct and recognizable symptomatology. Conclusion Hallucinations appear to be caused by a two-fold dysfunction in the mesofrontal dopamine pathway, which is considered here to mediate attention of different types: in the anterior medial frontal lobe, the receptors (largely D1 type) mediate declarative awareness, whereas the receptors in the striatum (largely D2 type) mediate latent awareness of known schemata. In healthy perception, most of the perceptual load is performed by the latter: by the top-down predictive and mimetic engine, with the bottom-up mechanism being used as a secondary tool to bring conscious deliberation to stimuli that fails to match up against expectations. In schizophrenia, the predictive mode is over-stimulated, while the bottom-up feedback mechanism atrophies. The dysfunctional distribution pattern effectively confines dopamine activity to the striatum, thereby stimulating the structural components of thought and behaviour: well-learned routines, narrative structures, lexica, grammar, schemata, archetypes, and other procedural resources. Meanwhile, the loss of activity in the frontal complex reduces the capacity for declarative awareness and for processing anything that fails to meet expectations.

De-risking development of medium density housing to improve housing affordability and boost supply

Housing price inflation is a national concern given the serious decline in the number of low and middle income households able to purchase housing. In addition housing supply lags well behind demand. In Melbourne, urban consolidation policies explicitly seek intensification to promote housing supply but planning regulation is often criticised for being a significant cost driver for medium density housing. It is assumed that easing supply constraints will improve affordability. We suggest that laissez-faire planning exacerbates affordability issues because this approach fails to address the basic economic problem: the current inability of the market to efficiently match supply and demand in order to progress an orderly and de-risked development process. The role of “exchange” one of the four housing market sub-systems identified by Burke (2012) has until recently generally been ignored but our examination reveals significant economic transaction costs that manifest as development risks that impact on affordability. Fortunately these can be mitigated, but only if there is a more consumer driven supply response.

Automation of underground truck haulage

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in the automation of underground truck haulage. Past attempts at automating LHDs and haul trucks are described and their particular strengths and weaknesses are listed. We argue that the simple auto-tramming systems currently being commercialised, that follow rail-type guides placed along the back, cannot match the performance, flexibility and reliability of systems based on modern mobile robotic principles. In addition, the lack of collision detection research in the underground environment is highlighted.

Structural identification of a laboratory-based steel through truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS)

Structural identification (St-Id) can be considered as the process of updating a finite element (FE) model of a structural system to match the measured response of the structure. This paper presents the St-Id of a laboratory-based steel through-truss cantilevered bridge with suspended span. There are a total of 600 degrees of freedom (DOFs) in the superstructure plus additional DOFs in the substructure. The St-Id of the bridge model used the modal parameters from a preliminary modal test in the objective function of a global optimisation technique using a layered genetic algorithm with patternsearch step (GAPS). Each layer of the St-Id process involved grouping of the structural parameters into a number of updating parameters and running parallel optimisations. The number of updating parameters was increased at each layer of the process. In order to accelerate the optimisation and ensure improved diversity within the population, a patternsearch step was applied to the fittest individuals at the end of each generation of the GA. The GAPS process was able to replicate the mode shapes for the first two lateral sway modes and the first vertical bending mode to a high degree of accuracy and, to a lesser degree, the mode shape of the first lateral bending mode. The mode shape and frequency of the torsional mode did not match very well. The frequencies of the first lateral bending mode, the first longitudinal mode and the first vertical mode matched very well. The frequency of the first sway mode was lower and that of the second sway mode was higher than the true values, indicating a possible problem with the FE model. Improvements to the model and the St-Id process will be presented at the upcoming conference and compared to the results presented in this paper. These improvements will include the use of multiple FE models in a multi-layered, multi-solution, GAPS St-Id approach.

Automatic clustering of white matter fibers in brain diffusion mri with an application to genetics

To understand factors that affect brain connectivity and integrity, it is beneficial to automatically cluster white matter (WM) fibers into anatomically recognizable tracts. Whole brain tractography, based on diffusion-weighted MRI, generates vast sets of fibers throughout the brain; clustering them into consistent and recognizable bundles can be difficult as there are wide individual variations in the trajectory and shape of WM pathways. Here we introduce a novel automated tract clustering algorithm based on label fusion - a concept from traditional intensity-based segmentation. Streamline tractography generates many incorrect fibers, so our top-down approach extracts tracts consistent with known anatomy, by mapping multiple hand-labeled atlases into a new dataset. We fuse clustering results from different atlases, using a mean distance fusion scheme. We reliably extracted the major tracts from 105-gradient high angular resolution diffusion images (HARDI) of 198 young normal twins. To compute population statistics, we use a pointwise correspondence method to match, compare, and average WM tracts across subjects. We illustrate our method in a genetic study of white matter tract heritability in twins.

Uncovering misconceptions through text analysis

Assessing students’ conceptual understanding of technical content is important for instructors as well as students to learn content and apply knowledge in various contexts. Concept inventories that identify possible misconceptions through validated multiple-choice questions are helpful in identifying a misconception that may exist, but do not provide a meaningful assessment of why they exist or the nature of the students’ understanding. We conducted a case study with undergraduate students in an electrical engineering course by testing a validated multiple-choice response concept inventory that we augmented with a component for students to provide written explanations for their multiple-choice selection. Results revealed that correctly chosen multiple-choice selections did not always match correct conceptual understanding for question testing a specific concept. The addition of a text-response to multiple-choice concept inventory questions provided an enhanced and meaningful assessment of students’ conceptual understanding and highlighted variables associated with current concept inventories or multiple choice questions.

Effect of different surface profile on wear of rail steel (AS1085.1) used in Australian heavy-haul railways

The extreme diversity of conditions acting on railways necessitates a variety of experimental approaches to study the critical wear mechanisms that present themselves at the contact interface. This work investigates the effects of contact pressure and geometry in rolling-contact wear tests by using discs with different radii of curvature to simulate the varying contact conditions that may be typically found in the field. It is commonly adapted to line contact interface as it has constant contact pressure. But practical scenario of the rail wheel interface, the contact area increase and contact pressure change as tracks worn off. The tests were conducted without any significant amount of traction, but micro slip was still observed due to contact deformation. Moreover, variation of contact pressure was observed due to contact patch elongation and diameter reduction. Rolling contact fatigue, adhesive and sliding wear were observed on the curved contact interface. The development of different wear regimes and material removal phenomena were analysed using microscopic images in order to broaden the understanding of the wear mechanisms occurring in the rail-wheel contact.