Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

A Multi-Agent System for the Solution of Fuzzy Incidents in Telecommunications

This article presents a multi-agent expert system (SMAF) , that allows the input of incidents which occur in different elements of the telecommunications area. SMAF interacts with experts and general users, and each agent with all the agents? community, recording the incidents and their solutions in a knowledge base, without the analysis of their causes. The incidents are expressed using keywords taken from natural language (originally Spanish) and their main concepts are recorded with their severities as the users express them. Then, there is a search of the best solution for each incident, being helped by a human operator using a distancenotions between them.

Some past decision theory models for euro construction model codes and for road drainage in Spain, and modest hints with multi-criteria methods for agro and environmental assurance

The authors are from UPM and are relatively grouped, and all have intervened in different academic or real cases on the subject, at different times as being of different age. With precedent from E. Torroja and A. Páez in Madrid Spain Safety Probabilistic models for concrete about 1957, now in ICOSSAR conferences, author J.M. Antón involved since autumn 1967 for euro-steel construction in CECM produced a math model for independent load superposition reductions, and using it a load coefficient pattern for codes in Rome Feb. 1969, practically adopted for European constructions, giving in JCSS Lisbon Feb. 1974 suggestion of union for concrete-steel-al.. That model uses model for loads like Gumbel type I, for 50 years for one type of load, reduced to 1 year to be added to other independent loads, the sum set in Gumbel theories to 50 years return period, there are parallel models. A complete reliability system was produced, including non linear effects as from buckling, phenomena considered somehow in actual Construction Eurocodes produced from Model Codes. The system was considered by author in CEB in presence of Hydraulic effects from rivers, floods, sea, in reference with actual practice. When redacting a Road Drainage Norm in MOPU Spain an optimization model was realized by authors giving a way to determine the figure of Return Period, 10 to 50 years, for the cases of hydraulic flows to be considered in road drainage. Satisfactory examples were a stream in SE of Spain with Gumbel Type I model and a paper of Ven Te Chow with Mississippi in Keokuk using Gumbel type II, and the model can be modernized with more varied extreme laws. In fact in the MOPU drainage norm the redacting commission acted also as expert to set a table of return periods for elements of road drainage, in fact as a multi-criteria complex decision system. These precedent ideas were used e.g. in wide Codes, indicated in symposia or meetings, but not published in journals in English, and a condensate of contributions of authors is presented. The authors are somehow involved in optimization for hydraulic and agro planning, and give modest hints of intended applications in presence of agro and environment planning as a selection of the criteria and utility functions involved in bayesian, multi-criteria or mixed decision systems. Modest consideration is made of changing in climate, and on the production and commercial systems, and on others as social and financial.

Multi-microphone recordings (EigenMike32) inside a WFS system (Iosono) through Ambisonics techniques using Matlab

El audio multicanal ha avanzado a pasos agigantados en los últimos años, y no solo en las técnicas de reproducción, sino que en las de capitación también. Por eso en este proyecto se encuentran ambas cosas: un array microfónico, EigenMike32 de MH Acoustics, y un sistema de reproducción con tecnología Wave Field Synthesis, instalado Iosono en la Jade Höchscule Oldenburg. Para enlazar estos dos puntos de la cadena de audio se proponen dos tipos distintos de codificación: la reproducción de la toma horizontal del EigenMike32; y el 3er orden de Ambisonics (High Order Ambisonics, HOA), una técnica de codificación basada en Armónicos Esféricos mediante la cual se simula el campo acústico en vez de simular las distintas fuentes. Ambas se desarrollaron en el entorno Matlab y apoyadas por la colección de scripts de Isophonics llamada Spatial Audio Matlab Toolbox. Para probar éstas se llevaron a cabo una serie de test en los que se las comparó con las grabaciones realizadas a la vez con un Dummy Head, a la que se supone el método más aproximado a nuestro modo de escucha. Estas pruebas incluían otras grabaciones hechas con un Doble MS de Schoeps que se explican en el proyecto “Sally”. La forma de realizar éstas fue, una batería de 4 audios repetida 4 veces para cada una de las situaciones garbadas (una conversación, una clase, una calle y un comedor universitario). Los resultados fueron inesperados, ya que la codificación del tercer orden de HOA quedo por debajo de la valoración Buena, posiblemente debido a la introducción de material hecho para un array tridimensional dentro de uno de 2 dimensiones. Por el otro lado, la codificación que consistía en extraer los micrófonos del plano horizontal se mantuvo en el nivel de Buena en todas las situaciones. Se concluye que HOA debe seguir siendo probado con mayores conocimientos sobre Armónicos Esféricos; mientras que el otro codificador, mucho más sencillo, puede ser usado para situaciones sin mucha complejidad en cuanto a espacialidad. In the last years the multichannel audio has increased in leaps and bounds and not only in the playback techniques, but also in the recording ones. That is the reason of both things being in this project: a microphone array, EigenMike32 from MH Acoustics; and a playback system with Wave Field Synthesis technology, installed by Iosono in Jade Höchscule Oldenburg. To link these two points of the audio chain, 2 different kinds of codification are proposed: the reproduction of the EigenMike32´s horizontal take, and the Ambisonics´ third order (High Order Ambisonics, HOA), a codification technique based in Spherical Harmonics through which the acoustic field is simulated instead of the different sound sources. Both have been developed inside Matlab´s environment and supported by the Isophonics´ scripts collection called Spatial Audio Matlab Toolbox. To test these, a serial of tests were made in which they were compared with recordings made at the time by a Dummy Head, which is supposed to be the closest method to our hearing way. These tests included other recording and codifications made by a Double MS (DMS) from Schoeps which are explained in the project named “3D audio rendering through Ambisonics techniques: from multi-microphone recordings (DMS Schoeps) to a WFS system, through Matlab”. The way to perform the tests was, a collection made of 4 audios repeated 4 times for each recorded situation (a chat, a class, a street and college canteen or Mensa). The results were unexpected, because the HOA´s third order stood under the Well valuation, possibly caused by introducing material made for a tridimensional array inside one made only by 2 dimensions. On the other hand, the codification that consisted of extracting the horizontal plane microphones kept the Well valuation in all the situations. It is concluded that HOA should keep being tested with larger knowledge about Spherical Harmonics; while the other coder, quite simpler, can be used for situations without a lot of complexity with regards to spatiality.

A Language to Formalize and to Operationalize Problem-solving Strategies of Structured Knowledge Models

This paper describes a proposal of a language called Link which has been designed to formalize and operationalize problem solving strategies. This language is used within a software environment called KSM (Knowledge Structure Manager) which helps developers in formulating and operationalizing structured knowledge models. The paper presents both its syntax and dynamics, and gives examples of well-known problem-solving strategies of reasoning formulated using this language.

An assertion language for constraint logic programs

In an advanced program development environment, such as that discussed in the introduction of this book, several tools may coexist which handle both the program and information on the program in different ways. Also, these tools may interact among themselves and with the user. Thus, the different tools and the user need some way to communicate. It is our design principie that such communication be performed in terms of assertions. Assertions are syntactic objects which allow expressing properties of programs. Several assertion languages have been used in the past in different contexts, mainly related to program debugging. In this chapter we propose a general language of assertions which is used in different tools for validation and debugging of constraint logic programs in the context of the DiSCiPl project. The assertion language proposed is parametric w.r.t. the particular constraint domain and properties of interest being used in each different tool. The language proposed is quite general in that it poses few restrictions on the kind of properties which may be expressed. We believe the assertion language we propose is of practical relevance and appropriate for the different uses required in the tools considered.

Game Theory Models for Multi-Robot Patrolling of Infraestructures

Abstract This work is focused on the problem of performing multi‐robot patrolling for infrastructure security applications in order to protect a known environment at critical facilities. Thus, given a set of robots and a set of points of interest, the patrolling task consists of constantly visiting these points at irregular time intervals for security purposes. Current existing solutions for these types of applications are predictable and inflexible. Moreover, most of the previous centralized and deterministic solutions and only few efforts have been made to integrate dynamic methods. Therefore, the development of new dynamic and decentralized collaborative approaches in order to solve the aforementioned problem by implementing learning models from Game Theory. The model selected in this work that includes belief‐based and reinforcement models as special cases is called Experience‐Weighted Attraction. The problem has been defined using concepts of Graph Theory to represent the environment in order to work with such Game Theory techniques. Finally, the proposed methods have been evaluated experimentally by using a patrolling simulator. The results obtained have been compared with previous available

The ciao prolog system

Ciao is a public domain, next generation multi-paradigm programming environment with a unique set of features: Ciao offers a complete Prolog system, supporting ISO-Prolog, but its novel modular design allows both restricting and extending the language. As a result, it allows working with fully declarative subsets of Prolog and also to extend these subsets (or ISO-Prolog) both syntactically and semantically. Most importantly, these restrictions and extensions can be activated separately on each program module so that several extensions can coexist in the same application for different modules. Ciao also supports (through such extensions) programming with functions, higher-order (with predicate abstractions), constraints, and objects, as well as feature terms (records), persistence, several control rules (breadth-first search, iterative deepening, ...), concurrency (threads/engines), a good base for distributed execution (agents), and parallel execution. Libraries also support WWW programming, sockets, external interfaces (C, Java, TclTk, relational databases, etc.), etc. Ciao offers support for programming in the large with a robust module/object system, module-based separate/incremental compilation (automatically -no need for makefiles), an assertion language for declaring (optional) program properties (including types and modes, but also determinacy, non-failure, cost, etc.), automatic static inference and static/dynamic checking of such assertions, etc. Ciao also offers support for programming in the small producing small executables (including only those builtins used by the program) and support for writing scripts in Prolog. The Ciao programming environment includes a classical top-level and a rich emacs interface with an embeddable source-level debugger and a number of execution visualization tools. The Ciao compiler (which can be run outside the top level shell) generates several forms of architecture-independent and stand-alone executables, which run with speed, efficiency and executable size which are very competive with other commercial and academic Prolog/CLP systems. Library modules can be compiled into compact bytecode or C source files, and linked statically, dynamically, or autoloaded. The novel modular design of Ciao enables, in addition to modular program development, effective global program analysis and static debugging and optimization via source to source program transformation. These tasks are performed by the Ciao preprocessor ( ciaopp, distributed separately). The Ciao programming environment also includes lpdoc, an automatic documentation generator for LP/CLP programs. It processes Prolog files adorned with (Ciao) assertions and machine-readable comments and generates manuals in many formats including postscript, pdf, texinfo, info, HTML, man, etc. , as well as on-line help, ascii README files, entries for indices of manuals (info, WWW, ...), and maintains WWW distribution sites.

Neighborhood-corrected interface discontinuity factors for multi-group pin-by-pin diffusion calculations for LWR

Performing three-dimensional pin-by-pin full core calculations based on an improved solution of the multi-group diffusion equation is an affordable option nowadays to compute accurate local safety parameters for light water reactors. Since a transport approximation is solved, appropriate correction factors, such as interface discontinuity factors, are required to nearly reproduce the fully heterogeneous transport solution. Calculating exact pin-by-pin discontinuity factors requires the knowledge of the heterogeneous neutron flux distribution, which depends on the boundary conditions of the pin-cell as well as the local variables along the nuclear reactor operation. As a consequence, it is impractical to compute them for each possible configuration; however, inaccurate correction factors are one major source of error in core analysis when using multi-group diffusion theory. An alternative to generate accurate pin-by-pin interface discontinuity factors is to build a functional-fitting that allows incorporating the environment dependence in the computed values. This paper suggests a methodology to consider the neighborhood effect based on the Analytic Coarse-Mesh Finite Difference method for the multi-group diffusion equation. It has been applied to both definitions of interface discontinuity factors, the one based on the Generalized Equivalence Theory and the one based on Black-Box Homogenization, and for different few energy groups structures. Conclusions are drawn over the optimal functional-fitting and demonstrative results are obtained with the multi-group pin-by-pin diffusion code COBAYA3 for representative PWR configurations.

Understanding phosphorus diffusion into silicon in a MOVPE environment for III-V on silicon solar cells

Dual-junction solar cells formed by a GaAsP or GaInP top cell and a silicon bottom cell seem to be attractive candidates to materialize the long sought-for integration of III?V materials on silicon for photovoltaic applications. When manufacturing a multi-junction solar cell on silicon, one of the first processes to be addressed is the development of the bottom subcell and, in particular, the formation of its emitter. In this study, we analyze, both experimentally and by simulations, the formation of the emitter as a result of phosphorus diffusion that takes place during the first stages of the epitaxial growth of the solar cell. Different conditions for the Metal-Organic Vapor Phase Epitaxy (MOVPE) process have been evaluated to understand the impact of each parameter, namely, temperature, phosphine partial pressure, time exposure and memory effects in the final diffusion profiles obtained. A model based on SSupremIV process simulator has been developed and validated against experimental profiles measured by ECV and SIMS to calculate P diffusion profiles in silicon formed in a MOVPE environment taking in consideration all these factors.