Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme.

Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions on timescales of 1 day to 1 year

There are no direct observational methods for determining the total rate at which energy is extracted from the solar wind by the magnetosphere. In the absence of such a direct measurement, alternative means of estimating the energy available to drive the magnetospheric system have been developed using different ionospheric and magnetospheric indices as proxies for energy consumption and dissipation and thus the input. The so-called coupling functions are constructed from the parameters of the interplanetary medium, as either theoretical or empirical estimates of energy transfer, and the effectiveness of these coupling functions has been evaluated in terms of their correlation with the chosen index. A number of coupling functions have been studied in the past with various criteria governing event selection and timescale. The present paper contains an exhaustive survey of the correlation between geomagnetic activity and the near-Earth solar wind and two of the planetary indices at a wide variety of timescales. Various combinations of interplanetary parameters are evaluated with careful allowance for the effects of data gaps in the interplanetary data. We show that the theoretical coupling, P�, function first proposed by Vasyliunas et al. is superior at all timescales from 1-day to 1-year.

Large-scale fields and flows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system

Advances in our understanding of the large-scale electric and magnetic fields in the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system are reviewed. The literature appearing in the period January 1991–June 1993 is sorted into 8 general areas of study. The phenomenon of substorms receives the most attention in this literature, with the location of onset being the single most discussed issue. However, if the magnetic topology in substorm phases was widely debated, less attention was paid to the relationship of convection to the substorm cycle. A significantly new consensus view of substorm expansion and recovery phases emerged, which was termed the ‘Kiruna Conjecture’ after the conference at which it gained widespread acceptance. The second largest area of interest was dayside transient events, both near the magnetopause and the ionosphere. It became apparent that these phenomena include at least two classes of events, probably due to transient reconnection bursts and sudden solar wind dynamic pressure changes. The contribution of both types of event to convection is controversial. The realisation that induction effects decouple electric fields in the magnetosphere and ionosphere, on time scales shorter than several substorm cycles, calls for broadening of the range of measurement techniques in both the ionosphere and at the magnetopause. Several new techniques were introduced including ionospheric observations which yield reconnection rate as a function of time. The magnetospheric and ionospheric behaviour due to various quasi-steady interplanetary conditions was studied using magnetic cloud events. For northward IMF conditions, reverse convection in the polar cap was found to be predominantly a summer hemisphere phenomenon and even for extremely rare prolonged southward IMF conditions, the magnetosphere was observed to oscillate through various substorm cycles rather than forming a steady-state convection bay.

Investigation of the accuracy of historical irradiance products and interannual variability of solar irradiance using Met Office ground data

Met Office station data from 1980 to 2012 has been used to characterise the interannual variability of incident solar irradiance across the UK. The same data are used to evaluate four popular historical irradiance products to determine which are most suitable for use by the UK PV industry for site selection and system design. The study confirmed previous findings that interannual variability is typically 3–6% and weighted average probability of a particular percentage deviation from the mean at an average site in the UK was calculated. This weighted average showed that fewer than 2% of site-years could be expected to fall below 90% of the long-term site mean. The historical irradiance products were compared against Met Office station data from the input years of each product. This investigation has found that all products perform well. No products have a strong spatial trend. Meteonorm 7 is most conservative (MBE = −2.5%), CMSAF is most optimistic (MBE = +3.4%) and an average of all four products performs better than any one individual product (MBE = 0.3%)

SPARE-ICE: synergistic Ice Water Path from passive operational sensors

This article presents SPARE-ICE, the Synergistic Passive Atmospheric Retrieval Experiment-ICE. SPARE-ICE is the first Ice Water Path (IWP) product combining infrared and microwave radiances. By using only passive operational sensors, the SPARE-ICE retrieval can be used to process data from at least the NOAA 15 to 19 and MetOp satellites, obtaining time series from 1998 onward. The retrieval is developed using collocations between passive operational sensors (solar, terrestrial infrared, microwave), the CloudSat radar, and the CALIPSO lidar. The collocations form a retrieval database matching measurements from passive sensors against the existing active combined radar-lidar product 2C-ICE. With this retrieval database, we train a pair of artificial neural networks to detect clouds and retrieve IWP. When considering solar, terrestrial infrared, and microwave-based measurements, we show that any combination of two techniques performs better than either single-technique retrieval. We choose not to include solar reflectances in SPARE-ICE, because the improvement is small, and so that SPARE-ICE can be retrieved both daytime and nighttime. The median fractional error between SPARE-ICE and 2C-ICE is around a factor 2, a figure similar to the random error between 2C-ICE ice water content (IWC) and in situ measurements. A comparison of SPARE-ICE with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Pathfinder Atmospheric Extended (PATMOS-X), and Microwave Surface and Precipitation Products System (MSPPS) indicates that SPARE-ICE appears to perform well even in difficult conditions. SPARE-ICE is available for public use.

The combined influences of westerly phase of the quasi biennial oscillation and 11-year solar maximum conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation

The combined influences of the westerly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO-W) and solar maximum (Smax) conditions on the Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter circulation are investigated using reanalysis data and Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations. The composite analysis for the reanalysis data indicates strengthened polar vortex in December followed by weakened polar vortex in February–March for QBO-W during Smax (QBO-W/Smax) conditions. This relationship need not be specific to QBO-W/Smax conditions but may just require strengthened vortex in December, which is more likely under QBO-W/Smax. Both the reanalysis data and CCM simulations suggest that dynamical processes of planetary wave propagation and meridional circulation related to QBO-W around polar vortex in December are similar in character to those related to Smax; furthermore, both processes may work in concert to maintain stronger vortex during QBO-W/Smax. In the reanalysis data, the strengthened polar vortex in December is associated with the development of north–south dipole tropospheric anomaly in the Atlantic sector similar to the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) during December–January. The structure of the north–south dipole anomaly has zonal wavenumber 1 (WN1) component, where the longitude of anomalous ridge overlaps with that of climatological ridge in the North Atlantic in January. This implies amplification of the WN1 wave and results in the enhancement of the upward WN1 propagation from troposphere into stratosphere in January, leading to the weakened polar vortex in February–March. Although WN2 waves do not play a direct role in forcing the stratospheric vortex evolution, their tropospheric response to QBO-W/Smax conditions appears to be related to the maintenance of the NAO-like anomaly in the high-latitude troposphere in January. These results may provide a possible explanation for the mechanisms underlying the seasonal evolution of wintertime polar vortex anomalies during QBO-W/Smax conditions and the role of troposphere in this evolution.

Modeling hourly and daily fractions of UV, PAR and NIR to global solar radiation under various sky conditions at Botucatu, Brazil

In this analysis, using available hourly and daily radiometric data performed at Botucatu, Brazil, several empirical models relating ultraviolet (UV), photosynthetically active (PAR) and near infrared (NIR) solar global components with solar global radiation (G) are established. These models are developed and discussed through clearness index K(T) (ratio of the global-to-extraterrestrial solar radiation). Results obtained reveal that the proposed empirical models predict hourly and daily values accurately. Finally. the overall analysis carried Out demonstrates that the sky conditions are more important in developing correlation models between the UV component and the global solar radiation. The linear regression models derived to estimate PAR and NIR components may be obtained without sky condition considerations within a maximum variation of 8%. In the case of UV, not taking into consideration the sky condition may cause a discrepancy of up to 18% for hourly values and 15% for daily values. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near-infrared integral field spectroscopy of the Homunculus nebula around eta Carinae using Gemini/CIRPASS

This work presents the first integral field spectroscopy of the Homunculus nebula around eta Carinae in the near-infrared spectral region (J band). We confirmed the presence of a hole on the polar region of each lobe, as indicated by previous near-IR long-slit spectra and mid-IR images. The holes can be described as a cylinder of height (i.e. the thickness of the lobe) and diameter of 6.5 and 6.0 x 10(16) cm, respectively. We also mapped the blue-shifted component of He I lambda 10830 seen towards the NW lobe. Contrary to previous works, we suggested that this blue-shifted component is not related to the Paddle but it is indeed in the equatorial disc. We confirmed the claim of N. Smith and showed that the spatial extent of the Little Homunculus matches remarkably well the radio continuum emission at 3 cm, indicating that the Little Homunculus can be regarded as a small H II region. Therefore, we used the optically thin 1.3 mm radio flux to derive a lower limit for the number of Lyman-continuum photons of the central source in eta Car. In the context of a binary system, and assuming that the ionizing flux comes entirely from the hot companion star, the lower limit for its spectral type and luminosity class ranges from O5.5 III to O7 I. Moreover, we showed that the radio peak at 1.7 arcsec NW from the central star is in the same line-of-sight of the `Sr-filament` but they are obviously spatially separated, while the blue-shifted component of He I lambda 10830 may be related to the radio peak and can be explained by the ultraviolet radiation from the companion star.

THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF MAGNETIZED WINDS OF SOLAR-LIKE STARS

By means of self-consistent three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) numerical simulations, we analyze magnetized solar-like stellar winds and their dependence on the plasma-beta parameter (the ratio between thermal and magnetic energy densities). This is the first study to perform such analysis solving the fully ideal three-dimensional MHD equations. We adopt in our simulations a heating parameter described by gamma, which is responsible for the thermal acceleration of the wind. We analyze winds with polar magnetic field intensities ranging from 1 to 20 G. We show that the wind structure presents characteristics that are similar to the solar coronal wind. The steady-state magnetic field topology for all cases is similar, presenting a configuration of helmet streamer-type, with zones of closed field lines and open field lines coexisting. Higher magnetic field intensities lead to faster and hotter winds. For the maximum magnetic intensity simulated of 20 G and solar coronal base density, the wind velocity reaches values of similar to 1000 km s(-1) at r similar to 20r(0) and a maximum temperature of similar to 6 x 10(6) K at r similar to 6r(0). The increase of the field intensity generates a larger ""dead zone"" in the wind, i.e., the closed loops that inhibit matter to escape from latitudes lower than similar to 45 degrees extend farther away from the star. The Lorentz force leads naturally to a latitude-dependent wind. We show that by increasing the density and maintaining B(0) = 20 G the system recover back to slower and cooler winds. For a fixed gamma, we show that the key parameter in determining the wind velocity profile is the beta-parameter at the coronal base. Therefore, there is a group of magnetized flows that would present the same terminal velocity despite its thermal and magnetic energy densities, as long as the plasma-beta parameter is the same. This degeneracy, however, can be removed if we compare other physical parameters of the wind, such as the mass-loss rate. We analyze the influence of gamma in our results and we show that it is also important in determining the wind structure.

Substitutional Impurities in PPV Crystals: An Intrinsic Donor-Acceptor System for High V(oc) Photovoltaic Devices

Defects are usually present in organic polymer films and are commonly invoked to explain the low efficiency obtained in organic-based optoelectronic devices. We propose that controlled insertion of substitutional impurities may, on the contrary, tune the optoelectronic properties of the underivatized organic material and, in the case studied here, maximize the efficiency of a solar cell. We investigate a specific oxygen-impurity substitution, the keto-defect -(CH(2)-C=O)- in underivatized crystalline poly(p-phenylenevinylene) (PPV), and its impact on the electronic structure of the bulk film, through a combined classical (force-field) and quantum mechanical (DFT) approach. We find defect states which suggest a spontaneous electron hole separation typical of a donor acceptor interface, optimal for photovoltaic devices. Furthermore, the inclusion of oxygen impurities does not introduce defect states in the gap and thus, contrary to standard donor-acceptor systems, should preserve the intrinsic high open circuit voltage (V(oc)) that may be extracted from PPV-based devices.

New treatment of cellulite with infrared-LED illumination applied during high-intensity treadmill training

Phototherapy improves cellular activation which is an important factor for the treatment of cellulite. The objective of this research was to develop and evaluate the effects of a new (noninvasive and nonpharmacological) clinical procedure to improve body aesthetics: infrared-LED (850 nm) plus treadmill training. Twenty women (25-55 years old) participated in this study. They were separated in two groups: the control group, which carried out only the treadmill training (n = 10), and the LED group, with phototherapy during the treadmill training (n - 10). The training was performed for 45 minutes twice a week over 3 months at intensities between 85% and 90% maximal heart rate (HR(max)). The irradiation parameters were 39 mW/cm(2) and a fluence of 106 J/cm(2). The treatment was evaluated by interpreting body composition parameters, photographs and thermography. This was primarily a treatment for cellulite with a reduction of saddlebag and thigh circumference. At the same time, the treadmill training prevented an increase of body fat, as well as the loss of lean mass. Moreover, thermal images of the temperature modification of the thighs are presented. These positive effects can result in a further improvement of body aesthetics using infrared-LED together with treadmill training.

Preparation and characterization of new glassy system As2P2S8-Ga2S3

Glasses having the composition (100 - x)As2P2S8-xGa(2)S(3) with x ranging from 0 to 50% were investigated to determine the compositional effect on properties and local structure. The glass transition temperature (T-g) and the stability parameter against crystallization (T-x - T-g) increased with the addition of Ga2S3. The structure of these glasses was probed by Raman scattering, Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) and P-31 nuclear magnetic resonance. On the basis of the observed vibrations and the strength of the P-31-P-31 homonuclear magnetic dipolar coupling, two scenarios can be proposed for the structural evolution induced by the addition of Ga2S3. For x <= 20% we may have the formation of GaS4E- groups (E = nonbonding electron), and for x >= 30% we have depolymerization of the As2P2S8 units and the formation of a network of GaPS4 units with each PS4/2 unit (Q(4)) species carrying a single positive formal charge.

Structural-electronic aspects related to the near-infrared light emission of Fe-doped silicon films

The need of efficient (fast and low consumption) optoelectronic devices has always been the driving force behind the investigation of materials with new or improved properties. To be commercially attractive, however, these materials should be compatible with our current micro-electronics industry and/or telecommunications system. Silicon-based compounds, with their matured processing technology and natural abundance, partially comply with such requirements-as long as they emit light. Motivated by these issues, this work reports on the optical properties of amorphous Si films doped with Fe. The films were prepared by sputtering a Si+Fe target and were investigated by different spectroscopic techniques. According to the experimental results, both the Fe concentration and the thermal annealing of the samples induce changes in their atomic structure and optical-electronic properties. In fact, after thermal annealing at similar to 750 degrees C, the samples partially crystallize with the development of Si and/or beta-FeSi(2) crystallites. In such a case, certain samples present light emission at similar to 1500 nm that depends on the presence of beta-FeSi(2) crystallites and is very sensitive to the annealing conditions. The most likely reasons for the light emission (or absence of it) in the considered Fe-doped Si samples are presented and discussed in view of their main structural-electronic characteristics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Synthesis, Infrared Spectroscopy and Crystal Structure Determination of a New Decavanadate

Synthesis, infrared spectroscopy and crystal structure of a new potassium decavanadate decahydrate, K(6)[V(10)O(28)] 10H(2)O, has been reported The infrared spectrum is dominated by decavanadate polyanion and water bands The X-ray crystallography analysis found the compound crystallizes in a triclinic system with the parameters a = 10 5334 (4) angstrom, b = 10 6600 (4) angstrom, c = 17 7351 (5) angstrom, alpha = 76 940 (2)degrees, beta = 75 836 (2)degrees, gamma = 64 776 (2)degrees, V = 1,729 86 (11) A(3), Z = 2, space group P (1) over bar The polyanion consists of ten [VO(6)] octahedra sharing edges, in which the V-O distances are in good agreement with those reported for other decavanadates The crystal structure is stabilized by potassium cations and water molecules forming a complex pattern of hydrogen bonding and short contact ionic interactions

Development of a heavy metal sorption system through the P=S functionalization of coconut (Cocos nucifera) fibers

Lignocellulosic residues are interesting materials for the production of heavy metal adsorbents for aquatic systems. Whole fibers taken from coconut (Cocos nucifera) husks were functionalized with the thiophosphoryl (P=S) group by means of the direct reaction with CI(3)P=S, (CH(3)O)(2)CIP=S or (CH(3)CH(2)O)(2)CIP=S in order to obtain an adsorptive system for `soft` metal ions, particularly Cd(2+). These functionalized fibers (FFs) were characterized by means of elemental analysis, infrared spectroscopy, thermal analysis and acid-base titration. Adsorption isotherms for Cd(2+) fitted the Langmuir model, with binding capacities of 0.2-5 mmol g(-1) of FF at 25 degrees C. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.