Study on Robustness of Strehler-Mildvan Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classi cation: 62F35, 62F15

Em Algorithm for MLE of a Probit Model for Multiple Ordinal Outcomes

The correlated probit model is frequently used for multiple ordered data since it allows to incorporate seamlessly different correlation structures. The estimation of the probit model parameters based on direct maximization of the limited information maximum likelihood is a numerically intensive procedure. We propose an extension of the EM algorithm for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates for a correlated probit model for multiple ordinal outcomes. The algorithm is implemented in the free software environment for statistical computing and graphics R. We present two simulation studies to examine the performance of the developed algorithm. We apply the model to data on 121 women with cervical or endometrial cancer. Patients developed normal tissue reactions as a result of post-operative external beam pelvic radiotherapy. In this work we focused on modeling the effects of a genetic factor on early skin and early urogenital tissue reactions and on assessing the strength of association between the two types of reactions. We established that there was an association between skin reactions and polymorphism XRCC3 codon 241 (C>T) (rs861539) and that skin and urogenital reactions were positively correlated. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): G.3.

Wound healing studies and interfacial phenomena:use and relevance of the corneal model

The interaction of the wound dressing as a biomaterial with the wound bed is the central issue of this chapter. The interfacial phenomenon that encompasses the biological and biochemical consequences that arise when a biomaterial is introduced to a host biological environment is discussed. A great deal can be learned from observations arising from the behaviour of biomaterials at other body sites; one particularly relevant body site in the context of wound healing is the anterior eye. The cornea, tear film and posterior surface of the contact lens provide an informative model of the parallel interface that exists between the chronic wound bed, wound fluid and the dressing biomaterial. © 2011 Woodhead Publishing Limited All rights reserved.

A Harrod modell strukturális stabilitása (Structural stability of the Harrod model)

In this study it is shown that the nontrivial hyperbolic fixed point of a nonlinear dynamical system, which is formulated by means of the adaptive expectations, corresponds to the unstable equilibrium of Harrod. We prove that this nonlinear dynamical (in the sense of Harrod) model is structurally stable under suitable economic conditions. In the case of structural stability, small changes of the functions (C1-perturbations of the vector field) describing the expected and the true time variation of the capital coefficients do not influence the qualitative properties of the endogenous variables, that is, although the trajectories may slightly change, their structure is the same as that of the unperturbed one, and therefore these models are suitable for long-time predictions. In this situation the critique of Lucas or Engel is not valid. There is no topological conjugacy between the perturbed and unperturbed models; the change of the growth rate between two levels may require different times for the perturbed and unperturbed models.

A projektfinanszírozás egyedi jellegzetességei (The individual characteristics of project finance)

A szerző cikkében a projektfinanszírozás különleges ismertetőjegyeit kívánja bemutatni – úgymint a projektfinanszírozás fejlődését, a projektfinanszírozás és a vállalatfinanszírozás fontosabb különbségeit, valamint a sikeres projektfinanszírozás előfeltételeit. Ezen kívül foglalkozik még a projektfinanszírozás során alkalmazott pénzügyi mutatószámrendszer, e finanszírozási forma lehetséges hitel- és tőkeforrásai, továbbá a projektfinanszírozás során alkalmazott biztosítékok köre. Végezetül pedig a kivitelezési és üzemeltetési kockázatot elemzi, mint a projektfinanszírozás egyik legfontosabb kockázati tényezőjét. _____ In this article the author presents the special features of project finance, such as the development of project financing, important differences of project finance and corporate finance, as well as the preconditions for successful project financing. The author demonstrates the financial scorecards which are used in project finance, possible debt and equity sources of this financial form, and the securities which are used in the project finance. Finally, he analyzes the construction and operational risk, as one of the major risk factors for project finance.

The efficacy of the Ellison model as a retention initiative for first semester freshmen

The freshman year is the most critical year of matriculation for students in higher education. One in four freshman students drops out of higher education after the first year. In fact, the first two to six weeks of college represent a very critical transition period when students make the decision to persist or depart from the institution. Many students leave because they are unable to make a connection with the institution. Retention is often profoundly affected by student involvement in the academic environment, satisfaction with the campus climate and the institution's response to diversity. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine and evaluate an effective institutional response that promotes freshman retention and academic success. The tenets (diversity training, conflict management, and community building) of a mentoring model were applied to the freshman experience seminar class (experimental group) as a pedagogical method of instruction to determine its efficacy as a retention initiative when compared with the traditional freshman experience seminar class (comparison group). ^ The quantitative study employed a quasi-experimental research design based on Astin's (1993) I-E-O model. The model examined the relationships between the characteristics students bring with them to college, called inputs, their experiences in the environment during college, and the outcomes students achieved during matriculation. Fifty-two students enrolled in the freshman seminar class participated in the study. ^ Demographic data and input variables between groups were analyzed using chi-square, t-tests and multivariate analyses. Overall, students in the experimental group had significantly higher satisfaction (campus climate) scores than the comparison group. An analysis of the students' willingness to interact with others from diverse groups indicated a significant difference between groups, with the experimental group scoring higher than the comparison group. Students in the experimental group were significantly more involved in campus activities than students in the comparison group. No significant differences were found between groups relative to the mean grade point average and re-enrollment for fall semester 2001. ^ While the mentoring model did not directly affect re-enrollment of students, the model did promote student satisfaction with the institution, an appreciation for diversity of contact and it encouraged involvement in the campus community. These are all essential outcomes of a quality retention program. ^

Results of analysis and model simulation of the bed profiles

Bedforms such as dunes and ripples are ubiquitous in rivers and coastal seas, and commonly described as triangular shapes from which height and length are calculated to estimate hydrodynamic and sediment dynamic parameters. Natural bedforms, however, present a far more complicated morphology; the difference between natural bedform shape and the often assumed triangular shape is usually neglected, and how this may affect the flow is unknown. This study investigates the shapes of natural bedforms and how they influence flow and shear stress, based on four datasets extracted from earlier studies on two rivers (the Rio Paraná in Argentina, and the Lower Rhine in The Netherlands). The most commonly occurring morphological elements are a sinusoidal stoss side made of one segment and a lee side made of two segments, a gently sloping upper lee side and a relatively steep (6 to 21°) slip face. A non-hydrostatic numerical model, set up using Delft3D, served to simulate the flow over fixed bedforms with various morphologies derived from the identified morphological elements. Both shear stress and turbulence increase with increasing slip face angle and are only marginally affected by the dimensions and positions of the upper and lower lee side. The average slip face angle determined from the bed profiles is 14°, over which there is no permanent flow separation. Shear stress and turbulence above natural bedforms are higher than above a flat bed but much lower than over the often assumed 30° lee side angle.

Evaluation of the ECOSSE model for simulating soil organic carbon under Miscanthus and short rotation coppice-willow crops in Britain

Acknowledgements This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

Individual monitoring of immune responses in rainbow trout after cohabitation and intraperitoneal injection challenge with Yersinia ruckeri

Acknowledgements This work was funded by the National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research (NC3Rs, grant G1100675). The authors are grateful to the aquarium staff at the University of Aberdeen (Karen Massie) and Dr David Smail at Marine Scotland for valuable discussion during the establishment of the experimental design.

The Physics of the Vicsek Model

Peer reviewed

E-service quality:development of a hierarchical model

Using survey data from 358 online customers, the study finds that the e-service quality construct conforms to the structure of a third-order factor model that links online service quality perceptions to distinct and actionable dimensions, including (1) website design, (2) fulfilment, (3) customer service, and (4) security/privacy. Each dimension is found to consist of several attributes that define the basis of e-service quality perceptions. A comprehensive specification of the construct, which includes attributes not covered in existing scales, is developed. The study contrasts a formative model consisting of 4 dimensions and 16 attributes against a reflective conceptualization. The results of this comparison indicate that studies using an incorrectly specified model overestimate the importance of certain e-service quality attributes. Global fit criteria are also found to support the detection of measurement misspecification. Meta-analytic data from 31,264 online customers are used to show that the developed measurement predicts customer behavior better than widely used scales, such as WebQual and E-S-Qual. The results show that the new measurement enables managers to assess e-service quality more accurately and predict customer behavior more reliably.

Large volume metrology process model:measurability analysis with integration of metrology classification model and feature-based selection model

Aircraft manufacturing industries are looking for solutions in order to increase their productivity. One of the solutions is to apply the metrology systems during the production and assembly processes. Metrology Process Model (MPM) (Maropoulos et al, 2007) has been introduced which emphasises metrology applications with assembly planning, manufacturing processes and product designing. Measurability analysis is part of the MPM and the aim of this analysis is to check the feasibility for measuring the designed large scale components. Measurability Analysis has been integrated in order to provide an efficient matching system. Metrology database is structured by developing the Metrology Classification Model. Furthermore, the feature-based selection model is also explained. By combining two classification models, a novel approach and selection processes for integrated measurability analysis system (MAS) are introduced and such integrated MAS could provide much more meaningful matching results for the operators. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010.

The development of a semantic model for the interpretation of mathematics including the use of technology

The semantic model developed in this research was in response to the difficulty a group of mathematics learners had with conventional mathematical language and their interpretation of mathematical constructs. In order to develop the model ideas from linguistics, psycholinguistics, cognitive psychology, formal languages and natural language processing were investigated. This investigation led to the identification of four main processes: the parsing process, syntactic processing, semantic processing and conceptual processing. The model showed the complex interdependency between these four processes and provided a theoretical framework in which the behaviour of the mathematics learner could be analysed. The model was then extended to include the use of technological artefacts into the learning process. To facilitate this aspect of the research, the theory of instrumentation was incorporated into the semantic model. The conclusion of this research was that although the cognitive processes were interdependent, they could develop at different rates until mastery of a topic was achieved. It also found that the introduction of a technological artefact into the learning environment introduced another layer of complexity, both in terms of the learning process and the underlying relationship between the four cognitive processes.

Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

Nutritional status of lactating mothers and their children 6-23 months of age in pre- and post-harvest seasons in two agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia

The objective of this study was to assess seasonal variation in nutritional status and feeding practices among lactating mothers and their children 6-23 months of age in two different agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia (lowland zone and midland zone). Food availability and access are strongly affected by seasonality in Ethiopia. However, there are few published data on the effects of seasonal food fluctuations on nutritional status and dietary diversity patterns of mothers and children in rural Ethiopia. A longitudinal study was conducted among 216 mothers in two agro-ecological zones of rural Ethiopia during pre and post-harvest seasons. Data were collected on many parameters including anthropometry, blood levels of haemoglobin and ferritin and zinc, urinary iodine levels, questionnaire data regarding demographic and household parameters and health issues, and infant and young child feeding practices, 24 h food recall to determine dietary diversity scores, and household use of iodized salt. Chi-square and multivariable regression models were used to identify independent predictors of nutritional status. A wide variety of results were generated including the following highlights. It was found that 95.4% of children were breastfed, of whom 59.7% were initially breastfed within one hour of birth, 22.2% received pre-lacteal feeds, and 50.9% of children received complementary feedings by 6 months of age. Iron deficiency was found in 44.4% of children and 19.8% of mothers. Low Zinc status was found in 72.2% of children and 67.3% of mothers. Of the study subjects, 52.5% of the children and 19.1% of the mothers were anaemic, and 29.6% of children and 10.5% of mothers had iron deficiency anaemia. Among the mothers with low serum iron status, 81.2% and 56.2% of their children had low serum zinc and iron, respectively. Similarly, among the low serum zinc status mothers, 75.2% and 45.3% of their children had low serum in zinc and iron, respectively. There was a strong correlation between the micronutrient status of the mothers and the children for ferritin, zinc and haemoglobin (P <0.001). There was also statistically significant difference between agro-ecological zones for micronutrient deficiencies among the mothers (p<0.001) but not for their children. The majority (97.6%) of mothers in the lowland zone were deficient in at least one micronutrient biomarker (zinc or ferritin or haemoglobin). Deficiencies in one, two, or all three biomarkers of micronutrient status were observed in 48.1%, 16.7% and 9.9% of mothers and 35.8%, 29.0%, and 23.5%, of children, respectively. Additionally, about 42.6% of mothers had low levels of urinary iodine and 35.2% of lactating mothers had goitre. Total goitre prevalence rates and urinary iodine levels of lactating mothers were not significantly different across agro-ecological zones. Adequately iodised salt was available in 36.6% of households. The prevalence of anaemia increased from post-harvest (21.8%) to pre-harvest seasons (40.9%) among lactating mothers. Increases were from 8.6% to 34.4% in midland and from 34.2% to 46.3% in lowland agro-ecological zones. Fifteen percent of mothers were anaemic during both seasons. Predictors of anaemia were high parity of mother and low dietary diversity. The proportion of stunted and underweight children increased from 39.8% and 27% in post-harvest season to 46.0% and 31.8% in pre-harvest season, respectively. However, wasting in children decreased from 11.6% to 8.5%. Major variations in stunting and underweight were noted in midland compared to lowland agroecological zones. Anthropometric measurements in mothers indicated high levels of undernutrition. The prevalence of undernutrition in mothers (BMI <18.5kg/m2) increased from 41.7 to 54.7% between post- and pre-harvest seasons. The seasonal effect was generally higher in the midland community for all forms of malnutrition. Parity, number of children under five years and regional variation were predictors of low BMI among lactating mothers. There were differences in minimum meal frequency, minimum acceptable diet and dietary diversity in children in pre-harvest and post-harvest seasons and these parameters were poor in both seasons. Dietary diversity among mothers was higher in lowland zone but was poor in both zones across the seasons. In conclusion, malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are very prevalent among lactating mothers and their children 6-23 months old in the study areas. There are significant seasonal variations in malnutrition and dietary diversity, in addition to significant differences between lowland and midland agro-ecological zones. These findings suggest a need to design effective preventive public health nutrition programs to address both the mothers’ and children’s needs particularly in the preharvest season.