Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Proposed gravitational wave observatory based on solid elastic spheres

Spherical gravitational wave (GW) detectors offer a wealth of so far unexplored possibilities to detect gravitational radiation. We find that a sphere can be used as a powerful testbed for any metric theory of gravity, not only general relativity as considered so far, by making use of a deconvolution procedure for all the electric components of the Riemann tensor. We also find that the spheres cross section is large at two frequencies, and advantageous at higher frequencies in the sense that a single antenna constitutes a real xylophone in its own. Proposed GW networks will greatly benefit from this. The main features of a two large sphere observatory are reported.

Cross section of a resonant-mass detector for scalar gravitational waves

Gravitationally coupled scalar fields, originally introduced by Jordan, Brans and Dicke to account for a non-constant gravitational coupling, are a prediction of many non-Einsteinian theories of gravity not excluding perturbative formulations of string theory. In this paper, we compute the cross sections for scattering and absorption of scalar and tensor gravitational waves by a resonant-mass detector in the framework of the Jordan-Brans-Dicke theory. The results are then specialized to the case of a detector of spherical shape and shown to reproduce those obtained in general relativity in a certain limit. Eventually we discuss the potential detectability of scalar waves emitted in a spherically symmetric gravitational collapse.

Stochastic semiclassical fluctuations in Minkowski spacetime

The semiclassical Einstein-Langevin equations which describe the dynamics of stochastic perturbations of the metric induced by quantum stress-energy fluctuations of matter fields in a given state are considered on the background of the ground state of semiclassical gravity, namely, Minkowski spacetime and a scalar field in its vacuum state. The relevant equations are explicitly derived for massless and massive fields arbitrarily coupled to the curvature. In doing so, some semiclassical results, such as the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor to linear order in the metric perturbations and particle creation effects, are obtained. We then solve the equations and compute the two-point correlation functions for the linearized Einstein tensor and for the metric perturbations. In the conformal field case, explicit results are obtained. These results hint that gravitational fluctuations in stochastic semiclassical gravity have a non-perturbative behavior in some characteristic correlation lengths.

Pair production by and electric field in (1+1)-dimensional de Sitter space

We use the method of Bogolubov transformations to compute the rate of pair production by an electric field in (1+1)-dimensional de Sitter space. The results are in agreement with those obtained previously using the instanton methods. This is true even when the size of the instanton is comparable to the size of the de Sitter horizon.

Open inflation and the singulary boundary

The singularity in the Hawking-Turok model of open inflation has some appealing properties, such as the fact that its action is integrable. Also, if one thinks of the singularity as the boundary of spacetime, then the Gibbons-Hawking term is nonvanishing and finite. Here, we consider a model where the gravitational and scalar fields are coupled to a dynamical membrane. The singular instanton can then be obtained as the limit of a family of no-boundary solutions where both the geometry and the scalar field are regular. Using this procedure, the contribution of the singularity to the Euclidean action is just 1/3 of the Gibbons-Hawking term. Unrelated to this issue, we also point out that the singularity acts as a reflecting boundary for scalar perturbations and gravity waves. Therefore, the quantization of cosmological perturbations seems to be well posed in this background.

Large N phases, gravitational instantons and the nuts and bolts of AdS holography

Recent results in the literature concerning holography indicate that the thermodynamics of quantum gravity (at least with a negative cosmological constant) can be modeled by the large N thermodynamics of quantum field theory. We emphasize that this suggests a completely unitary evolution of processes in quantum gravity, including black hole formation and decay, and even more extreme examples involving topology change. As concrete examples which show that this correspondence holds even when the space-time is only locally asymptotically AdS, we compute the thermodynamical phase structure of the AdS-Taub-NUT and AdS-Taub-bolt spacetimes, and compare them to a (2+1)-dimensional conformal field theory (at large N) compactified on a squashed three-sphere and on the twisted plane.

Exact gravitational shockwaves and Planckian scattering on branes

We obtain a solution describing a gravitational shock wave propagating along a Randall-Sundrum brane. The interest of such a solution is twofold: on the one hand, it is the first exact solution for a localized source on a Randall-Sundrum three-brane. On the other hand, one can use it to study forward scattering at Planckian energies, including the effects of the continuum of Kaluza-Klein modes. We map out the different regimes for the scattering obtained by varying the center-of-mass energy and the impact parameter. We also discuss exact shock waves in ADD scenarios with compact extra dimensions.

Propagation in a thermal graviton background

It is well known that radiative corrections evaluated in nontrivial backgrounds lead to effective dispersion relations which are not Lorentz invariant. Since gravitational interactions increase with energy, gravity-induced radiative corrections could be relevant for the trans-Planckian problem. As a first step to explore this possibility, we compute the one-loop radiative corrections to the self-energy of a scalar particle propagating in a thermal bath of gravitons in Minkowski spacetime. We obtain terms which originate from the thermal bath and which indeed break the Lorentz invariance that possessed the propagator in the vacuum. Rather unexpectedly, however, the terms which break Lorentz invariance vanish in the high three-momentum limit. We also found that the imaginary part, which gives the rate of approach to thermal equilibrium, vanishes at one loop.

Reheating in inflationary cosmologies: Geometric coupling of the "inflaton" to quantum fields

We propose a simple geometrical prescription for coupling a test quantum scalar field to an "inflaton" (classical scalar field) in the presence of gravity. When the inflaton stems from the compactification of a Kaluza-Klein theory, the prescription leaves no arbitrariness and amounts to a dimensional reduction of the Klein-Gordon equation. We discuss the possible relevance of this coupling to "reheating" in inflationary cosmologies.

Wideband dual sphere detector of gravitational waves

We present the concept of a sensitive and broadband resonant mass gravitational wave detector. A massive sphere is suspended inside a second hollow one. Short, high-finesse Fabry-Perot optical cavities read out the differential displacements of the two spheres as their quadrupole modes are excited. At cryogenic temperatures, one approaches the standard quantum limit for broadband operation with reasonable choices for the cavity finesses and the intracavity light power. A molybdenum detector, of overall size of 2 m, would reach spectral strain sensitivities of 2x10-23Hz-1/2 between 1000 and 3000 Hz.

Tamman ternimaidon laadun määritys ominaispainon avulla

Summary: Determination of mare colostrum quality by measuring specific gravity

The First World War and coal trade geography in Latin America and the Caribbean (1890-1930)

This paper aims to illustrate the dynamics of coal trade between Latin America and its main trade partners, i.e. the USA, Great Britain and Germany, before and after the enormous disruption caused by the First World War. The coal trade was used as an indicator of modernization for Latin American countries, given that oil was at that time of secondary importance. Energy imports have determined the possibilities of each Latin American country in its process of development. Here we address this question and place special emphasis on supply channels, concluding that the trade link with main suppliers was of key significance. Although this was very clear by the end of the period, the process had started well before the First World War, at least for the majority of LA&C countries. These points are developed through a gravity model applied to the bilateral coal trade. The importance of the market supplier share is addressed through cluster methodologies.