Keeping up with the Joneses: An international asset pricing model

We derive an international asset pricing model that assumes local investorshave preferences of the type "keeping up with the Joneses." In aninternational setting investors compare their current wealth with that oftheir peers who live in the same country. In the process of inferring thecountry's average wealth, investors incorporate information from the domesticmarket portfolio. In equilibrium, this gives rise to a multifactor CAPMwhere, together with the world market price of risk, there existscountry-speciffic prices of risk associated with deviations from thecountry's average wealth level. The model performs signifficantly better, interms of explaining cross-section of returns, than the international CAPM.Moreover, the results are robust, both for conditional and unconditionaltests, to the inclusion of currency risk, macroeconomic sources of risk andthe Fama and French HML factor.

Separated by a common currency? Evidence from the Euro changeover

We study the price convergence of goods and services in the euro area in 2001-2002. To measure the degree of convergence, we compare the prices of around 220 items in 32 European cities. The width of the border is the price di¤erence attributed to the fact that the two cities are in different countries. We find that the 2001 European borders are negative, which suggests that the markets were very integrated before the euro changeover. Moreover, we do not identify an integration effect attributable to the introduction of the euro. We then explore the determinants of the European borders. We find that different languages, wealth and population differences tend to split the markets. Historical inflation, though, tends to lead to price convergence.

Forest fires: Evaluation of government intervention measures

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between government measures, volunteer participation, climate variables and forest fires. A number of studies have related forest fires to causes of ignition, to fire history in one area, to the type of vegetation and weathercharacteristics or to community institutions, but there is little research on the relation between fire production and government prevention and extinction measures from a policy evaluation perspective.An observational approach is first applied to select forest fires in the north east of Spain. Taking a selection of fires with a certain size, a multiple regression analysis is conducted to find significant relations between policy instruments under the control of the government and the number of hectares burn in each case, controlling at the same time the effect of weather conditions and other context variables. The paper brings evidence on the effects of simultaneity and the relevance of recurring to army soldiers in specific days with extraordinary high simultaneity. The analysis also brings light on the effectiveness of twopreventive policies and of helicopters for extinction tasks.

Solving heterogeneous-agent models by projection and perturbation

The paper proposes a numerical solution method for general equilibrium models with a continuum of heterogeneous agents, which combines elements of projection and of perturbation methods. The basic idea is to solve first for the stationary solutionof the model, without aggregate shocks but with fully specified idiosyncratic shocks. Afterwards one computes a first-order perturbation of the solution in the aggregate shocks. This approach allows to include a high-dimensional representation of the cross-sectional distribution in the state vector. The method is applied to a model of household saving with uninsurable income risk and liquidity constraints. The model includes not only productivity shocks, but also shocks to redistributive taxation, which cause substantial short-run variation in the cross-sectional distribution of wealth. If those shocks are operative, it is shown that a solution method based on very few statistics of the distribution is not suitable, while the proposed method can solve the model with high accuracy, at least for the case of small aggregate shocks. Techniques are discussed to reduce the dimension of the state space such that higher order perturbations are feasible.Matlab programs to solve the model can be downloaded.

Asset pricing implications of benchmarking: A two-factor CAPM

In this paper we consider the equilibrium effects of an institutionalinvestor whose performance is benchmarked to an index. In a partialequilibrium setting, the objective of the institutional investor is modeledas the maximization of expected utility (an increasing and concave function,in order to accommodate risk aversion) of final wealth minus a benchmark.In equilibrium this optimal strategy gives rise to the two-beta CAPM inBrennan (1993): together with the market beta a new risk-factor (that wecall active management risk) is brought into the analysis. This new betais deffined as the normalized (to the benchmark's variance) covariancebetween the asset excess return and the excess return of the market overthe benchmark index. Different to Brennan, the empirical test supports themodel's predictions. The cross-section return on the active management riskis positive and signifficant especially after 1990, when institutionalinvestors have become the representative agent of the market.

Do the eealthy risk more money? An experimental comparison

Are poor people more or less likely to take money risks than wealthy folks?We find that risk attraction is more prevalent among the wealthy when theamounts of money at risk are small (not surprising, since ten dollars is asmaller amount for a wealthy person than for a poor one), but, interestingly,for the larger amounts of money at risk the fraction of the nonwealthydisplaying risk attraction exceeds that of the wealthy.We also replicate our previous finding that many people display riskattraction for small money amounts, but risk aversion for large ones. Weargue that preferences yielding risk attraction for small money amounts,together with risk aversion for larger amounts, at all levels of wealth, while contradicting the expected utility hypothesis, may be well-defined,independently of reference points, on the choice space.

How well do individuals predict the selling prices of their homes?

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this research, we study the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating sales prices utilizing the Health and Retirement Study. We find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%. More importantly, we are the first to document a strong correlation between accuracy and the economic conditions at the time of the purchase of the property (measured by the prevalent interest rate, the growth of household income, and the growth of median housing prices). While most individuals overestimate the value of their properties, those who bought during more difficult economic times tend to be more accurate, and in some cases even underestimate the value of their house. These results establish a surprisingly strong, likely permanent, and in many cases long-lived, effect of the initial conditions surrounding the purchases of properties, on how individuals value them. This cyclicality of the overestimation of house prices can provide some explanations for the difficulties currently faced by many homeowners, who were expecting large appreciations in home value to rescue them in case of increases in interest rates which could jeopardize their ability to live up to their financial commitments.

Economic and Workforce Development Task Force Report, August 2008

The 2008 disasters devastated businesses, farms, homes, schools, non-profit institutions, entire communities, and people’s lives across the state of Iowa. The Rebuild Iowa Advisory Commission (RIAC) is charged by the Governor to guide the state’s recovery and reconstruction process. The Economic and Workforce Development Task Force is respectfully submitting this report to be included and considered in the deliberations of the RIAC. While economic and workforce development are two issues that are inextricably linked and critical to Iowa’s rebuilding strategies, each also requires extraordinary attention in determining what needs to be considered in the very immediate and longer-term recovery.

Book production and the onset of modern economic growth

Endogenous growth theory suggests that human capital formation plays a significant role for the wealth and poverty of nations. In contrast to previous studies which denied the role of human capital as a crucial determinant of for really long-term growth, we confirm its importance. Indicators of human capital like literacy rates are lacking for the period of 1450-1913; hence, we use per capita book production as a proxy for advanced literacy skills. This study explains how, and to what extent, growth disparities are a function of human capital formation.

Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach

This paper surveys asset allocation methods that extend the traditional approach. An important feature of the the traditional approach is that measures the risk and return tradeoff in terms of mean and variance of final wealth. However, there are also other important features that are not always made explicit in terms of investor s wealth, information, and horizon: The investor makes a single portfolio choice based only on the mean and variance of her final financial wealth and she knows the relevant parameters in that computation. First, the paper describes traditional portfolio choice based on four basic assumptions, while the rest of the sections extend those assumptions. Each section will describe the corresponding equilibrium implications in terms of portfolio advice and asset pricing.

The marginal propensity to spend on adult children

We examine how much of an extra dollar of parental lifetime resources willultimately be passed on to adult children in the form of inter vivostransfers and bequests. We infer bequests from the stock of wealth late inlife. We use mortality rates and age specific estimates of the response oftransfers and wealth to permanent income to compute the expected presentdiscounted values of these responses to permanent income. Our estimatesimply parents pass on between 2 and 3 cents out of an extra dollar ofexpected lifetime resources in bequests and about 2 cents in transfers.The estimates increase with parental income and are smaller for nonwhites.They imply that about 15 percent of the effect of parental income onlifetime resources of adult children is through transfers and bequestsand about 85 percent is through the intergenerational correlation inearnings, although these estimates are sensitive to assumptions about theintergenerational earnings correlation, taxes, and the number of children.We compare our estimates to the implications of alternative computablebenchmark models of savings behavior in order to assess the likelyimportance of intended bequests for the wealth/income relationship.

The V-region disease hypothesis: evidence from autoimmune encephalomyelitis.

Experimental allergic encephalomyelitis has been shown to have an immunological basis. In fact, the disease can be induced by T cells specific for myelin basic protein, a molecule found in abundance in the central nervous system. In this article, Ellen Heber-Katz and Hans Acha-Orbea discuss the T-cell receptor (TCR) repertoire of the encephalitogenic T-cell response, and show that a limited V gene pool, in fact a single V beta and two V alpha families, are being used by the PL/J and B10.PL mice and by every rat strain examined, even though the antigenic determinants and the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecules are different in all cases. This extraordinary finding suggests that the TCR is involved in encephalitogenicity in a way that not only involves the recognition of antigen in association with MHC, but also as an effector molecule that results in encephalitis. If this is true, it implies that TCRs, in general, play more than one role in mammalian physiology.

A model of collateral, investment and adverse selection

This paper characterizes the relationship between entrepreneurial wealth and aggregate investmentunder adverse selection. Its main finding is that such a relationship need not bemonotonic. In particular, three results emerge from the analysis: (i) pooling equilibria, in whichinvestment is independent of entrepreneurial wealth, are more likely to arise when entrepreneurialwealth is relatively low; (ii) separating equilibria, in which investment is increasing inentrepreneurial wealth, are most likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively highand; (iii) for a given interest rate, an increase in entrepreneurial wealth may generate a discontinuousfall in investment.

Relatório de Jogos de Marketing - Evolutec-Computer

A Evolutec-Computer é uma empresa especializada em engenharia eletrônica, que recebeu um financiamento de uma firma internacional de acionistas, que decidiu entrar no mercado de produção de microcomputador. Por conseguinte, foi criada uma nova divisão de PC Marketing para prosseguir nesta oportunidade de negócio. A fim de iniciar essa divisão, a Cooporate Headquarters forneceu o capital inicial (dinheiro do investimento). O montante concedido seria usado para abrir escritórios de vendas, design das marcas e realizar atividades de pesquisas R&D para as novas tecnologias. A nossa empresa recebeu 500.000 USD nos primeiros quatro semestres e 5.000.000 USD no quinto semestre, somando um total de 7.000.000 USD. A Evolutec-Computer terá o controlo da divisão de PC para os próximos dois anos (8 semestres/períodos de decisão). Dentro desse prazo, a Coorporate Headquarters espera ver a criação de uma divisão autossuficiente. A equipa criada pela Evolutec terá que ser capaz de gerar proveito das operações e contribuir para o lucro da corporação como um todo. Dentro dos 8 semestres, espera-se obter lucro suficiente para cobrir os investimentos iniciais...The Evolutec-Computer is a company specialized in electronic engineering, which has received funding from an international firm shareholder, who decided to enter the PC production market. Therefore, a new PC Marketing Division was created to pursue this business opportunity. In order to start this division, the Corporate Headquarters provided the initial capital (investment money). The sum would be used to open sales offices, design brands and carry out R & D research activities for new technologies. Our company received $ 500,000 in the first four semesters and $ 5,000,000 in the fifth semester, for a total of $ 7,000,000. The Evolutec-Computer will control the PC division for the next two years (eight semesters/decision periods). Within that period, the Coorporate Headquarters hopes to see the creation of a selfsufficient division. The team set up by Evolutec will have to be able to generate profit from operations and contribute to the profit of the corporation as a whole. Within 8 semesters, is expected to make enough profit to cover the initial investment. The performance of our company will be measured by Headquarter through the Balanced Scorecard, which will be based on financial performance, effectiveness of the marketing plan, market performance, investments in the company's future and wealth creation.

Incremental growth of the Patagonian Torres del Paine laccolith over 90 k.y.

The Miocene Paine Granite in the Torres del Paine Intrusive Complex, southern Chile, is an extraordinary example of an upper crustal mafic and granitic intrusion. The granite intruded as a series of three sheets, each one underplating the previous sheet along the top of the basal Paine Mafic Complex. High-precision U/Pb geochronology on single zircons using isotope dilution-thermal ionization mass spectrometry yields distinct ages of 12.59 +/- 0.02 Ma and 12.50 +/- 0.02 Ma, respectively, for the first and last sheet of the laccolith. This age relationship is consistent with field observations. The zircon ages define a time frame of 90 +/- 40 k.y. for the emplacement of a >2000-m-thick granite laccollith. These precise U-Pb zircon ages permit identification of the pulses in a 20 k.y. range. The data obtained for the Paine Granite fill the gap between 100 k.y. and 100-1000 yr pulses described in the literature for crustal magma chambers.