Asymmetric information and trade policy

Economists understand protectionism as a costly mechanism to redistribute from the average citizen to special-interest groups; yet political platforms that deviate from free trade have surprising popular appeal. I present an explanation based on heterogeneous information across citizens whose voting decision has an intensive margin. For each politician and each sector, the optimal trade-policy choice caters to the preferences of those voters who are more likely to be informed of that proposal. An overall protectionist bias emerges because in every industry producers are better informed than consumers. This asymmetry emerges in equilibrium because co-workers share industry-specific knwoledge, and because producers have greater incentives to engage in costly learning about their sector. My model implies that more widespread information about trade policy for an industry is associated with lower protection. Cross-sectoral evidence on U.S. non-tariff barriers and newspaper coverage is consistent with this prediction.

Improved smoking cessation in smokers given ultrasound photographs of their own atherosclerotic plaques.

BACKGROUND: We examined whether making smokers aware that they had developed peripheral atherosclerosis would improve smoking cessation. METHODS: Smokers selected from the general population were randomly allocated to undergo high-resolution B-mode ultrasonography of their carotid and femoral arteries. All smokers received quit-smoking counseling. Smokers with > or =1 atherosclerotic plaque were given two photographs of a plaque with a relevant explanation. Quit rates were assessed by telephone 6 months later. RESULTS: Seventy-nine smokers did not undergo ultrasonography (A). Among the 74 smokers submitted to ultrasonography, 20 had no plaque (B) and 54 had > or =1 plaque (C). Quit rates were, respectively, 6.3, 5.0, and 22.2% in groups A, B, and C. Quit rates were higher in smokers submitted to ultrasonography (B + C vs A; P = 0.031) and in those receiving photographs (C vs A + B; P = 0.003). Smoking cessation was independently associated with intervention C (OR = 6.2; 95% CI = 1.8-21) and a white-collar job but not with age or gender. CONCLUSIONS: Providing smokers with photographs demonstrating atherosclerosis on their own person was an effective adjunct to physician's advice to quit smoking. Since ultrasonography is used increasingly often in clinical practice for cardiovascular risk stratification, this can provide an additional opportunity and means to deter smokers from smoking.

Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars

This paper analyzes the relationship between ethnic fractionalization, polarization, and conflict. In recent years many authors have found empirical evidence that ethnic fractionalization has a negative effect on growth. One mechanism that can explain this nexus is the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on rent-seeking activities and the increase in potential conflict, which is negative for investment. However the empirical evidence supporting the effect of ethnic fractionalization on the incidence of civil conflicts is very weak. Although ethnic fractionalization may be important for growth, we argue that the channel is not through an increase in potential ethnic conflict. We discuss the appropriateness of indices of polarization to capture conflictive dimensions. We develop a new measure of ethnic heterogeneity that satisfies the basic properties associated with the concept of polarization. The empirical section shows that this index of ethnic polarization is a significant variable in the explanation of the incidence of civil wars. This result is robust to the presence of other indicators of ethnic heterogeneity, other sources of data for the construction of the index, and other data structures.

Downsizing, Job Insecurity, and Firm Reputation

This paper studies how firms make layoff decisions in the presence of adverse shocks. In this uncertain environment, workers' expectations about their job security affect their on-the-job performance. This productivity effect on job insecurity forces firms to strike a balance between laying off redundant workers and maintaining survivors' commitment when deciding on the amount and timing of downsizing. This framework offers an explanation of conservative employment practices (such as zero or reduced layoffs) based on firms having private information about their future profits. High retention rates and wages can signal that the firm has a bright future, boosting workers' confidence. Moreover, the model provides clear predictions about when waves of downsizing will occur as opposed to one-time massive cuts.

Le multiple evanescent white dot syndrome: une prédisposition génétique [Multiple evanescent white dot syndrome: a genetic predisposition?]

BACKGROUND: Multiple evanescent white dot syndrome (MEWDS) is a benign acquired isolated chorioretinal disorder. Symptoms include photopsia, visual blur and scotomas. Ocular examination reveals multiple white dots at the level of the deep retina. A parainfectious disorder was suggested but the exact mechanism of MEWDS is still unknown. Postulating that MEWDS might be an antigen driven inflammatory reaction, we analyzed HLA subtypes in patients with MEWDS. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixteen patients were diagnosed with MEWDS in Lausanne from 1985 to 1994. Blood was withdrawn in 9/16 patients. HLA-A, -B and -DR were sought. RESULTS: HLA-B51 was detected in 4/9 patients (44.4%). Other HLA subtypes were detected sporadically. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of HLA-B51 haplotype was found to be 3.7 times more elevated than in a normal control caucasian group. This suggests the possibility that MEWDS might be a genetically determined disorder as it is the case for other ocular diseases like Birdshot chorioretinopathy (HLA-A29), Harada's disease (HLA-DRMT3), acute anterior uveitis (HLA-B27) or Behçet's disease (HLA-B51). We have no explanation for the presence of HLA-B51 in both Behçet's disease and MEWDS. The association of HLA-B51 and MEWDS needs confirmation by further testing.

Skill, Luck, Overconfidence, and Risk Taking

In most naturally occurring situations, success depends on both skill and chance. We compare experimental market entry decisions where payoffs depend on skill alone and combinations of skill and luck. We find more risk taking with skill and luck as opposed to skill alone, particularly for males, and little overconfidence. Our data support an explanation based on differential attitudes toward luck by those whose self-assessed skills are low and high. Making luck more important induces greater optimism for the former, while the latter maintain a belief that high levels of skill are sufficient to overcome the vagaries of chance.

Nd-, O-, and H-isotopic evidence for complex, closed-system fluid evolution of the peralkaline Ilimaussaq intrusion, South Greenland

Relatively homogeneous oxygen isotope compositions of amphibole, clinopyroxene, and olivine separates (+5.2 to +5.7parts per thousand relative to VSMOW) and neodymium isotope compositions (epsilon(Nd(T)) = -0.9 to -1.8 for primary magmatic minerals and epsilon(Nd(T)) = -0.1 and -0.5 for mineral separates from late-stage pegmatites and hydrothermal veins) from the alkaline to agpaitic llimaussaq intrusion, South Greenland, indicate a closed system evolution of this igneous complex and support a mantle derivation of the magma. In contrast to the homogeneous oxygen and neodymium isotopic data, deltaD values for hand-picked amphibole separates vary between -92 and -232parts per thousand and are among the most deuterium-depleted values known from igneous amphiboles. The calculated fluid phase coexisting with these amphiboles has a homogeneous oxygen isotopic composition within the normal range of magmatic waters, but extremely heterogeneous and low D/H ratios, implying a decoupling of the oxygen- and hydrogen isotope systems. Of the several possibilities that can account for such unusually low deltaD values in amphiboles (e.g., late-stage hydrothermal exchange with meteoric water, extensive magmatic degassing, contamination with organic matter, and/or effects of Fe-content and pressure on amphibole-water fractionation) the most likely explanation for the range in deltaD values is that the amphiboles have been influenced by secondary interaction and reequilibration with D-depleted fluids obtained through late-magmatic oxidation of internally generated CH(4) and/or H(2). This interpretation is consistent with the known occurrence of abundant magmatic CH(4) in the Ilimaussaq rocks and with previous studies on the isotopic compositions of the rocks and fluids. Copyright (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

The Swiss Business Elite (1980-2000): How the Changing Composition of the Elite Explains the Decline of the Swiss Company Network

In this paper we analyse the decline of the Swiss corporate network between 1980 and 2000. We address the theoretical and methodological challenge of this transformation by the use of a combination of network analysis and multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). Based on a sample of top managers of the 110 largest Swiss companies in 1980 and 2000 we show that, beyond an adjustment to structural pressure, an explanation of the decline of the network has to include the strategies of the fractions of the business elites. We reveal that three factors contribute crucially to the decline of the Swiss corporate network: the managerialization of industrial leaders, the marginalization of law degree holders and the influx of hardly connected foreign managers.

Focal dependent pleural thickening at MDCT: pleural lesion or functional abnormality?

PURPOSE: To describe the characteristics of reversible focal pleural thickenings (PTs) mimicking real plaques, that firstly suggest asbestos exposure or pleural metastasis; to propose an imaging strategy and propose an explanation for their mechanism of formation. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective review of data from 19 patients with PTs fitting the description of pleural plaques at chest computed tomography (CT) and presenting modifications (clearance or appearance) of at least one PT at an additional chest examination in prone position. RESULTS: A total of 152 PTs were recorded on the first chest CT examinations with a range of two to 19 pleural opacities per patient. All PTs had a posterior distribution in the lower lobes. On the additional acquisitions, 144 PTs disappeared. Seventeen patients presented complete regression of PTs and two patients presented persistence of eight PTs. CONCLUSION: Additional low dose acquisition in prone position should be performed in all patients presenting with focal PT in a dependent and basal location. This may allow to exclude a pleural plaque in case of asbestos exposure but also a pleural metastasis in oncologic patients. These reversible dependent PTs could be related to physiological focal accumulation of lymphatic fluid in subpleural area.

The Role of Public Administration: A Global Perspective

From my experience with public administration in my country, Cape Verde, and through readings in the area of development administration, I have found that a distinctive role and specific societal goals are usually ascribed to public administration in developing country. In studying American public administration approaches and operation, I was stuck by the fact that the definition of roles and societal goals for public administration seems not to be a forefront concern in the field. How to do things and achieve efficiency, in a managerial and rational perspective, seemed to draw much more attention than the purpose of doing things. Somehow, the contrast with the concept of development administration seemed too sharp, and I became curious about the reasons for such disparate approaches. Historical, cultural, and environmental differences would probably not be the only explanation for that since the concept of development administration was shaped, in the late 50’s and 60’s, by American authors and institutional aid agencies, and then “offered” to developing countries. At the same time, looking to poor results of the successive prescriptions of the development administration movement, I was no sure that such a concept and the framework it establishes was worthwhile. What practical answers and arrangement did they bring to the needs and challenges of public administrations in developing countries? …

Modeling of the TCR-MHC-peptide complex.

The methodology for generating a homology model of the T1 TCR-PbCS-K(d) class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I complex is presented. The resulting model provides a qualitative explanation of the effect of over 50 different mutations in the region of the complementarity determining region (CDR) loops of the T cell receptor (TCR), the peptide and the MHC's alpha(1)/alpha(2) helices. The peptide is modified by an azido benzoic acid photoreactive group, which is part of the epitope recognized by the TCR. The construction of the model makes use of closely related homologs (the A6 TCR-Tax-HLA A2 complex, the 2C TCR, the 14.3.d TCR Vbeta chain, the 1934.4 TCR Valpha chain, and the H-2 K(b)-ovalbumine peptide), ab initio sampling of CDR loops conformations and experimental data to select from the set of possibilities. The model shows a complex arrangement of the CDR3alpha, CDR1beta, CDR2beta and CDR3beta loops that leads to the highly specific recognition of the photoreactive group. The protocol can be applied systematically to a series of related sequences, permitting the analysis at the structural level of the large TCR repertoire specific for a given peptide-MHC complex.

Large-scale evolutionary trends of Acrochordiceratidae Arthaber, 1911 (Ammonoidea, Middle Triassic) and Cope's rule

Directed evolution of life through millions of years, such as increasing adult body size, is one of the most intriguing patterns displayed by fossil lineages. Processes and causes of such evolutionary trends are still poorly understood. Ammonoids (externally shelled marine cephalopods) are well known to have experienced repetitive morphological evolutionary trends of their adult size, shell geometry and ornamentation. This study analyses the evolutionary trends of the family Acrochordiceratidae Arthaber, 1911 from the Early to Middle Triassic (251228 Ma). Exceptionally large and bed-rock-controlled collections of this ammonoid family were obtained from strata of Anisian age (Middle Triassic) in north-west Nevada and north-east British Columbia. They enable quantitative and statistical analyses of its morphological evolutionary trends. This study demonstrates that the monophyletic clade Acrochordiceratidae underwent the classical evolute to involute evolutionary trend (i.e. increasing coiling of the shell), an increase in its shell adult size (conch diameter) and an increase in the indentation of its shell suture shape. These evolutionary trends are statistically robust and seem more or less gradual. Furthermore, they are nonrandom with the sustained shift in the mean, the minimum and the maximum of studied shell characters. These results can be classically interpreted as being constrained by the persistence and common selection pressure on this mostly anagenetic lineage characterized by relatively moderate evolutionary rates. Increasing involution of ammonites is traditionally interpreted by increasing adaptation mostly in terms of improved hydrodynamics. However, this trend in ammonoid geometry can also be explained as a case of Copes rule (increasing adult body size) instead of functional explanation of coiling, because both shell diameter and shell involution are two possible paths for ammonoids to accommodate size increase.

Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

This paper explores biases in the elicitation of utilities under risk and the contribution that generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these biases. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studies, prospect theory was most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expected utility was in comparisons between a riskless and a risky prospect(riskless-risk methods). We observed no improvement over expected utility in comparisons between two risky prospects (risk-risk methods). An explanation why we found no improvement of prospect theory over expected utility in risk-risk methods may be that there was less overweighting of small probabilities in our study than has commonly been observed.

The biogeography of mitochondrial and nuclear discordance in animals.

Combining nuclear (nuDNA) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) markers has improved the power of molecular data to test phylogenetic and phylogeographic hypotheses and has highlighted the limitations of studies using only mtDNA markers. In fact, in the past decade, many conflicting geographic patterns between mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers have been identified (i.e. mito-nuclear discordance). Our goals in this synthesis are to: (i) review known cases of mito-nuclear discordance in animal systems, (ii) to summarize the biogeographic patterns in each instance and (iii) to identify common drivers of discordance in various groups. In total, we identified 126 cases in animal systems with strong evidence of discordance between the biogeographic patterns obtained from mitochondrial DNA and those observed in the nuclear genome. In most cases, these patterns are attributed to adaptive introgression of mtDNA, demographic disparities and sex-biased asymmetries, with some studies also implicating hybrid zone movement, human introductions and Wolbachia infection in insects. We also discuss situations where divergent mtDNA clades seem to have arisen in the absence of geographic isolation. For those cases where foreign mtDNA haplotypes are found deep within the range of a second taxon, data suggest that those mtDNA haplotypes are more likely to be at a high frequency and are commonly driven by sex-biased asymmetries and/or adaptive introgression. In addition, we discuss the problems with inferring the processes causing discordance from biogeographic patterns that are common in many studies. In many cases, authors presented more than one explanation for discordant patterns in a given system, which indicates that likely more data are required. Ideally, to resolve this issue, we see important future work shifting focus from documenting the prevalence of mito-nuclear discordance towards testing hypotheses regarding the drivers of discordance. Indeed, there is great potential for certain cases of mitochondrial introgression to become important natural systems within which to test the effect of different mitochondrial genotypes on whole-animal phenotypes.

Cashing by the hour: Why large law firms prefer hourly fees over contingent fees

Large law firms seem to prefer hourly fees over contingent fees. Thispaper provides a moral hazard explanation for this pattern of behavior.Contingent legal fees align the interests of the attorney with those ofthe client, but not necessarily with those of the partnership. We showthat the choice of hourly fees is a solution to an agency problem withmultiple principals, where the interests of one principal (law firm)collide with the interests of the other principal (client).