997 resultados para epidemiological variables


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Phase transition and viscosity behavior of emulsified systems were studied after modifying their physicochemical formulation. Effects of concentration and nature of salts and n-alcohols, and water/oil relation on the rheological properties of emulsions were also studied. Pre-equilibrated systems were emulsified according to an agitation procedure, and the viscosity (cP) was measured at different shear rates ranging from 1 to 300 s-1. The phase behavior, as well as the emulsion type based on electrolytic conductivity, was observed. Several interpretations of the flow and viscosity curves of emulsions were made through the estimation of rheological parameters such as consistency index "k" and behavior index "n".

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The objective of this paper was to evaluate the potential of neural networks (NN) as an alternative method to the basic epidemiological approach to describe epidemics of coffee rust. The NN was developed from the intensities of coffee (Coffea arabica) rust along with the climatic variables collected in Lavras-MG between 13 February 1998 and 20 April 2001. The NN was built with climatic variables that were either selected in a stepwise regression analysis or by the Braincel® system, software for NN building. Fifty-nine networks and 26 regression models were tested. The best models were selected based on small values of the mean square deviation (MSD) and of the mean prediction error (MPE). For the regression models, the highest coefficients of determination (R²) were used. The best model developed with neural networks had an MSD of 4.36 and an MPE of 2.43%. This model used the variables of minimum temperature, production, relative humidity of the air, and irradiance 30 days before the evaluation of disease. The best regression model was developed from 29 selected climatic variables in the network. The summary statistics for this model were: MPE=6.58%, MSE=4.36, and R²=0.80. The elaborated neural networks from a time series also were evaluated to describe the epidemic. The incidence of coffee rust at four previous fortnights resulted in a model with MPE=4.72% and an MSD=3.95.

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This work quantifies two important epidemiological features of the bean (Phaseolus vulgaris)/Phaeoisariopsis griseola pathosystem. The first is the effect of the number of nights of leaf wetness on infection efficiency. Infection efficiency was below 10% when inoculated leaflets were exposed to less than two nights of leaf wetness. Optimum infection efficiencies were obtained after three to four nights of leaf wetness, at about 50%. Further nights of leaf wetness did not increase the infection efficiency. The second feature quantified is the relative rate of leaflet defoliation for varying levels of angular leaf spot severity. It increased with disease severity according to a logarithm-like curve, and a relative rate of 0.23 day-1 was estimated for a severity of 18%. The implications of these results on the disease epidemiology are discussed.

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The objectives of this study were to evaluate the progress of Ralstonia solanacearum bacterial potato wilt biovar 2 (race 3) in 14 potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) cultivars or clones, the resistance of potato clone MB 03 (selected in Brasília, Brazil) to race 1 of R. solanacearum, and the occurrence of the pathogen in tubers harvested from asymptomatic potato plants. During the spring (September to the end of November in the southern hemisphere) of 1999 and 2000, 14 cultivars or clones were grown in a field naturally infested with R. solanacearum biovar 2, in Caxias do Sul, RS. The number of wilted potato plants was recorded each week and a disease progress curve plotted, the resistance of the potato genotypes to bacterial wilt being evaluated by determining the area under the curve. Various models were evaluated to fit the curves, with the logistic model being the best fit. At the end of each growing season tubers produced by asymptomatic plants were harvested and stored until budding and then tested for the presence of R. solanacearum. Cultivar Cruza 148 and clone MB 03 were the most resistant but both showed tubers with latent infections. The epidemiological implications of the incidence of R. solanacearum biovar 2 (race 3) in potato crops, as well as the resistance of certain genotypes that may harbor latent infections, are important aspects to be considered in the integrated management of bacterial wilt.

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ABSTRACT Climatic conditions stimulates the cambial activity of plants, and cause significant changes in trunk diameter growth and wood characteristics. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate variables in the diameter growth rate of the stem and the wood density of Eucalyptus grandis trees in different classes of the basal area. A total of 25 Eucalyptus trees at 22 months of age were selected according to the basal area distribution. Dendrometer bands were installed at the height of 1.30 meters (DBH) to monitor the diameter growth every 14 days, for 26 months. After measuring growth, the trees were felled and wood discs were removed at the DBH level to determine the radial density profile through x-ray microdensitometry and then re-scale the average values every 14 days. Climatic variables for the monitoring period were obtained and grouped every 14 days. The effect of the climate variables was determined by maximum and minimum growth periods in assessing trunk growth. These growth periods were related with precipitation, average temperature and relative air humidity. The re-scaled wood density values, calculated using the radial growth of the tree trunks measured accurately with steel dendrometers, enabled the determination of the relationship of small changes in wood density and the effect of the climatic variations and growth rate of eucalyptus tree trunks. A high sensitivity of the wood density to variation in precipitation levels was found.

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The increasing demand of consumer markets for the welfare of birds in poultry house has motivated many scientific researches to monitor and classify the welfare according to the production environment. Given the complexity between the birds and the environment of the aviary, the correct interpretation of the conduct becomes an important way to estimate the welfare of these birds. This study obtained multiple logistic regression models with capacity of estimating the welfare of broiler breeders in relation to the environment of the aviaries and behaviors expressed by the birds. In the experiment, were observed several behaviors expressed by breeders housed in a climatic chamber under controlled temperatures and three different ammonia concentrations from the air monitored daily. From the analysis of the data it was obtained two logistic regression models, of which the first model uses a value of ammonia concentration measured by unit and the second model uses a binary value to classify the ammonia concentration that is assigned by a person through his olfactory perception. The analysis showed that both models classified the broiler breeder's welfare successfully.

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Thermal and air conditions inside animal facilities change during the day due to the influence of the external environment. For statistical and geostatistical analyses to be representative, a large number of points spatially distributed in the facility area must be monitored. This work suggests that the time variation of environmental variables of interest for animal production, monitored within animal facility, can be modeled accurately from discrete-time records. The aim of this study was to develop a numerical method to correct the temporal variations of these environmental variables, transforming the data so that such observations are independent of the time spent during the measurement. The proposed method approached values recorded with time delays to those expected at the exact moment of interest, if the data were measured simultaneously at the moment at all points distributed spatially. The correction model for numerical environmental variables was validated for environmental air temperature parameter, and the values corrected by the method did not differ by Tukey's test at 5% significance of real values recorded by data loggers.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the application possibility of tabular CUSUM control charts in the quality control of chemical variables in surface water. It was performed bibliographic and field research to collect water samples from 2003 to 2009, totaling 30 samples, some monthly and others semi-annual in order to observe the variables that regulate water quality. It was found that these charts may be applied to control the quality of river water; showing to be effective in the perception of changes during the process, especially for small samples (n=1) which there is no repetition as in this research. It was also concluded that the Mandurim River does not presents significant levels of pollution.

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The study of spatial variability of soil and plants attributes, or precision agriculture, a technique that aims the rational use of natural resources, is expanding commercially in Brazil. Nevertheless, there is a lack of mathematical analysis that supports the correlation of these independent variables and their interactions with the productivity, identifying scientific standards technologically applicable. The aim of this study was to identify patterns of soil variability according to the eleven physical and seven chemical indicators in an agricultural area. It was used two multivariate techniques: the hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) and the principal component analysis (PCA). According to the HCA, the area was divided into five management zones: zone 1 with 2.87ha, zone 2 with 0.8ha, zone 3 with 1.84ha, zone 4 with 1.33ha and zone 5 with 2.76ha. By the PCA, it was identified the most important variables within each zone: V% for the zone 1, CTC in the zone 2, levels of H+Al in the zone 4 and sand content and altitude in the zone 5. The zone 3 was classified as an intermediate zone with characteristics of all others. According to the results it is concluded that it is possible to separate into groups (management zones) samples with the same patterns of variability by the multivariate statistical techniques.

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The objective of this study was to evaluate the meteorological variables, water deficiency, growth, and agro-industrial yield of sugarcane varieties: RB72454, RB863129, RB867515, RB92579, RB93509, RB931003, RB951541, and RB971755, in rainfed crop in two harvests in the Rio Largo-AL region. The meteorological variables were obtained in an automatic station and water balance was done by Thornthwaite & Mather method. During the study period, the air temperature ranged from 16.6 to 35.9 ºC. In the first production cycle rained 1,806 mm and the crop evapotranspiration was 1,775 mm. In the second cycle, the rainfall totaled 1,632 mm and the crop evapotranspiration was 1,290 mm. The average water excess of two production cycles was 689 mm and the water deficit totaled 665 mm. The average agricultural productivity in the plant was 86.8 t ha-1, in the first ratoon was 75.2 t ha-1 and the agro-industrial yield average was 12.9 and 10.9 tons of sugar per hectare in the plant and first ratoon, respectively. The air temperature was not limiting to the growth of sugarcane and the rainfall was higher than the crop evapotranspiration, but due to poor distribution of the rains there was water deficit. The most productive varieties were RB93509, RB92579, and RB863129.

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ABSTRACT Precision agriculture (PA) allows farmers to identify and address variations in an agriculture field. Management zones (MZs) make PA more feasible and economical. The most important method for defining MZs is a fuzzy C-means algorithm, but selecting the variable for use as the input layer in the fuzzy process is problematic. BAZZI et al. (2013) used Moran’s bivariate spatial autocorrelation statistic to identify variables that are spatially correlated with yield while employing spatial autocorrelation. BAZZI et al. (2013) proposed that all redundant variables be eliminated and that the remaining variables would be considered appropriate on the MZ generation process. Thus, the objective of this work, a study case, was to test the hypothesis that redundant variables can harm the MZ delineation process. BAZZI This work was conducted in a 19.6-ha commercial field, and 15 MZ designs were generated by a fuzzy C-means algorithm and divided into two to five classes. Each design used a different composition of variables, including copper, silt, clay, and altitude. Some combinations of these variables produced superior MZs. None of the variable combinations produced statistically better performance that the MZ generated with no redundant variables. Thus, the other redundant variables can be discredited. The design with all variables did not provide a greater separation and organization of data among MZ classes and was not recommended.

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Pathological gambling, a form of behavioral addiction, refers to maladaptive, compulsive gambling behavior severely interfering with an individual’s normal life. The prevalence of pathological gambling has been estimated to be 1–2% in western societies. The reward deficiency hypothesis of addiction assumes that individuals that have, or are prone, to addictions have blunted mesolimbic dopamine reward signaling, which leads to compulsive reward seeking in an attempt to compensate for the malfunctioning brain reward network. In this research project, the effects of gambling were measured using brain [11C] raclopride PET during slot machine gambling and possible brain structural changes associated with pathological gambling using MRI. The subjects included pathological gamblers and healthy volunteers. In addition, impulse control disorders associated with Parkinson’s disease were investigated by using brain [18F]fluorodopa PET and conducting an epidemiological survey. The results demonstrate mesolimbic dopamine release during gambling in both pathological gamblers and healthy volunteers. Striatal dopamine was released irrespective of the gambling outcome, whether the subjects won or not. There was no difference in gambling induced dopamine release between pathological gamblers and control subjects, although the magnitude of the dopamine release correlated with gambling related symptom severity in pathological gamblers. The results also show that pathological gambling is associated with extensive abnormality of brain white matter integrity, as measured with diffusion tensor imaging, similar to substance-addictions. In Parkinson’s disease patients with impulse control disorders, enhanced brain [18F] fluorodopa uptake in the medial orbitofrontal cortex was observed, indicating increased presynaptic monoamine function in this region, which is known to influence signaling in the mesolimbic system and reward processing. Finally, a large epidemiological survey in Finnish Parkinson’s disease patients showed that compulsive behaviors are very common in Parkinson disease and they are strongly associated with depression. These findings demonstrate the role of dopamine in pathological gambling, without support for the concept of reward deficiency syndrome.

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OBJECTIVE: Show the steps of a Trauma Registry (TR) implementation in a Brazilian public hospital and evaluate the initial data from the database.METHODS: Descriptive study of the a TR implementation in João XXIII Hospital (Hospital Foundation of the state of Minas Gerais) and analysis of the initial results of the first 1,000 patients.RESULTS: The project was initiated in 2011 and from January 2013 we began collecting data for the TR. In January 2014 the registration of the first 1000 patients was completed. The greatest difficulties in the TR implementation were obtaining funds to finance the project and the lack of information within the medical records. The variables with the lowest completion percentage on the physiological conditions were: pulse, blood pressure, respiratory rate and Glasgow coma scale. Consequently, the Revised Trauma Score (RTS) could be calculated in only 31% of cases and the TRISS methodology applied to 30.3% of patients. The main epidemiological characteristics showed a predominance of young male victims (84.7%) and the importance of aggression as a cause of injuries in our environment (47.5%), surpassing traffic accidents. The average length of stay was 6 days, and mortality 13.7%.CONCLUSION: Trauma registries are invaluable tools in improving the care of trauma victims. It is necessary to improve the quality of data recorded in medical records. The involvement of public authorities is critical for the successful implementation and maintenance of trauma registries in Brazilian hospitals.

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OBJECTIVE: to determine predictive factors for prognosis of decompressive craniectomy in patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI), describing epidemiological findings and the major complications of this procedure.METHODS: we conducted a retrospective study based on analysis of clinical and neurological outcome, using the extended Glasgow outcome in 56 consecutive patients diagnosed with severe TBI scale treated in the emergency department from February 2004 to July 2012. The variables assessed were age, mechanism of injury, presence of pupillary changes, Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score on admission, CT scan findings (volume, type and association of intracranial lesions, deviation from the midline structures and classification in the scale of Marshall and Rotterdam).RESULTS: we observed that 96.4% of patients underwent unilateral decompressive craniectomy (DC) with expansion duraplasty, and the remainder to bilateral DC, 53.6% of cases being on the right 42.9% on the left, and 3.6% bilaterally, with predominance of the fourth decade of life and males (83.9%). Complications were described as transcalvarial herniation (17.9%), increased volume of brain contusions (16.1%) higroma (16.1%), hydrocephalus (10.7%), swelling of the contralateral lesions (5.3%) and CSF leak (3.6%).CONCLUSION: among the factors studied, only the presence of mydriasis with absence of pupillary reflex, scoring 4 and 5 in the Glasgow Coma Scale, association of intracranial lesions and diversion of midline structures (DML) exceeding 15mm correlated statistically as predictors of poor prognosis.

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Objective : To characterize patients with chronic subdural hematoma undergoing surgery and to identify prognostic indicators. Methods : We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients diagnosed with chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) undergoing surgical treatment. We analyzed: age, period from trauma to diagnostic imaging, pre and postoperative Glasgow coma scale, type of surgery, associated comorbidities, use of postoperative drainage and outpatient treatment. Results : The sample consisted of 176 patients, 126 male and 50 female patients (ratio 2.5 : 1), ages ranged from six months to 97 years, with an average of 59.3 years. CSDH was caused by trauma in 52% of patients, with the time from trauma to imaging averaging 25.05 days; 37.7% were hypertensive patients and 20% had a neurological disease. Eighty-five (48.3%) patients were elderly and altered consciousness was present in 63% of cases. Of the 91 (51.7%) non-elderly patients, 44% presented with headache, altered consciousness occurred in 40% and motor abnormalities in 27.5%. The CSDH was located on the right in 41%, left in 43% and bilaterally in 16% of patients. Conclusion : the change of consciousness was the most common clinical alteration in the elderly and headache in non-elderly. The most associated comorbidity was the arterial hypertension and the most frequent cause, head trauma. The trepanation with two oriffices associated with a closed drainage system was the most used operating, with high efficacy and low complication rate.