Characterisation of Bolivian savanna ecosystems by their modern pollen rain and implications for fossil pollen records

The majority of vegetation reconstructions from the Neotropics are derived from fossil pollen records extracted from lake sediments. However, the interpretation of these records is restricted by limited knowledge of the contemporary relationships between the vegetation and pollen rain of Neotropical ecosystems, especially for more open vegetation such as savannas. This research aims to improve the interpretation of these records by investigating the vegetation and modern pollen rain of different savanna ecosystems in Bolivia using vegetation inventories, artificial pollen traps and surface lake sediments. Two types of savanna were studied, upland savannas (cerrado), occurring on well drained soils, and seasonally-inundated savannas occurring on seasonally water-logged soils. Quantitative vegetation data are used to identify taxa that are floristically important in the different savanna types and to allow modern pollen/vegetation ratios to be calculated. Artificial pollen traps from the upland savanna site are dominated by Moraceae (35%), Poaceae (30%), Alchornea (6%) and Cecropia (4%). The two seasonally-inundated savanna sites are dominated by Moraceae (37%), Poaceae (20%), Alchornea (8%) and Cecropia (7%), and Moraceae (25%), Cyperaceae (22%), Poaceae (19%) and Cecropia (9%), respectively. The modern pollen rain of seasonally-inundated savannas from surface lake sediments is dominated by Cyperaceae (35%), Poaceae (33%), Moraceae (9%) and Asteraceae (5%). Upland and seasonally-flooded savannas were found to be only subtly distinct from each other palynologically. All sites have a high proportion of Moraceae pollen due to effective wind dispersal of this pollen type from areas of evergreen forest close to the study sites. Modern pollen/vegetation ratios show that many key woody plant taxa are absent/under-represented in the modern pollen rain (e.g., Caryocar and Tabebuia). The lower-than-expected percentages of Poaceae pollen, and the scarcity of savanna indicators, in the modern pollen rain of these ecosystems mean that savannas could potentially be overlooked in fossil pollen records without consideration of the full pollen spectrum available.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea-ice free Arctic

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

An overview of interactive visual data mining techniques for knowledge discovery

n the past decade, the analysis of data has faced the challenge of dealing with very large and complex datasets and the real-time generation of data. Technologies to store and access these complex and large datasets are in place. However, robust and scalable analysis technologies are needed to extract meaningful information from these datasets. The research field of Information Visualization and Visual Data Analytics addresses this need. Information visualization and data mining are often used complementary to each other. Their common goal is the extraction of meaningful information from complex and possibly large data. However, though data mining focuses on the usage of silicon hardware, visualization techniques also aim to access the powerful image-processing capabilities of the human brain. This article highlights the research on data visualization and visual analytics techniques. Furthermore, we highlight existing visual analytics techniques, systems, and applications including a perspective on the field from the chemical process industry.

Predicting long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement: the unique contributions of motivation and cognitive strategies

This research examined how motivation (perceived control, intrinsic motivation, and extrinsic motivation), cognitive learning strategies (deep and surface strategies), and intelligence jointly predict long-term growth in students' mathematics achievement over 5 years. Using longitudinal data from six annual waves (Grades 5 through 10; Mage = 11.7 years at baseline; N = 3,530), latent growth curve modeling was employed to analyze growth in achievement. Results showed that the initial level of achievement was strongly related to intelligence, with motivation and cognitive strategies explaining additional variance. In contrast, intelligence had no relation with the growth of achievement over years, whereas motivation and learning strategies were predictors of growth. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and learning strategies in facilitating adolescents' development of mathematical competencies.

Observations of diurnal and spatial variability of radiative forcing by equatorial deep convective clouds

From geostationary satellite observations of equatorial Africa and the equatorial east Atlantic during May and June 2000 we explore the radiative forcing by deep convective cloud systems in these regions. Deep convective clouds (DCCs) are associated with a mean radiative forcing relative to non–deep convective areas of −39 W m−2 over the Atlantic Ocean and of +13 W m−2 over equatorial Africa (±10 W m−2 in both cases). We show that over land the timing of the daily cycle of convection relative to the daily cycle in solar illumination and surface temperature significantly affects the mean radiative forcing by DCCs. Displacement of the daily cycle of DCC coverage by 2 hours changes their overall radiative effect by ∼10 W m−2, with implications for the simulation of the radiative balance in this region. The timing of the minimum DCC cover over land, close to noon local time, means that the mean radiative forcing is nearly maximized.

Exploring the climatic impact of the continental vegetation on the Mezosoic atmospheric CO2 and climate history

In this contribution, we continue our exploration of the factors defining the Mesozoic climatic history. We improve the Earth system model GEOCLIM designed for long term climate and geochemical reconstructions by adding the explicit calculation of the biome dynamics using the LPJ model. The coupled GEOCLIM-LPJ model thus allows the simultaneous calculation of the climate with a 2-D spatial resolution, the coeval atmospheric CO2, and the continental biome distribution. We found that accounting for the climatic role of the continental vegetation dynamics (albedo change, water cycle and surface roughness modulations) strongly affects the reconstructed geological climate. Indeed the calculated partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 over the Mesozoic is twice the value calculated when assuming a uniform constant vegetation. This increase in CO2 is triggered by a global cooling of the continents, itself triggered by a general increase in continental albedo owing to the development of desertic surfaces. This cooling reduces the CO2 consumption through silicate weathering, and hence results in a compensating increase in the atmospheric CO2 pressure. This study demonstrates that the impact of land plants on climate and hence on atmospheric CO2 is as important as their geochemical effect through the enhancement of chemical weathering of the continental surface. Our GEOCLIM-LPJ simulations also define a climatic baseline for the Mesozoic, around which exceptionally cool and warm events can be identified.

Mg/Ca partitioning between aqueous solution and aragonite mineral: a molecular dynamics study

We have calculated the concentrations of Mg in the bulk and surfaces of aragonite CaCO3 in equilibrium with aqueous solution, based on molecular dynamics simulations and grand-canonical statistical mechanics. Mg is incorporated in the surfaces, in particular in the (001) terraces, rather than in the bulk of aragonite particles. However, the total Mg content in the bulk and surface of aragonite particles was found to be too small to account for the measured Mg/Ca ratios in corals. We therefore argue that most Mg in corals is either highly metastable in the aragonite lattice, or is located outside the aragonite phase of the coral skeleton, and we discuss the implications of this finding for Mg/Ca paleothermometry.

A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing

Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Our goal is to assess current observational capabilities and identify uncertainties in the aerosol direct forcing through comparisons of different methods with independent sources of uncertainties. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth (τ), direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical depth (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.03±0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21%±7% is contributed by human activities, as estimated by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multi-angle MISR derives an annual average AOD of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ~20% or ±0.05. These high-accuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global the ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2 Wm-2 (median ± standard error from various methods) over the global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination of the satellite derived aerosol field will reduce the TOA DRE to -5.0 Wm-2. Because of a lack of measurements of aerosol absorption and difficulty in characterizing land surface reflection, estimates of DRE over land and at the ocean surface are currently realized through a combination of satellite retrievals, surface measurements, and model simulations, and are less constrained. Over the oceans the surface DRE is estimated to be -8.8±0.7 Wm-2. Over land, an integration of satellite retrievals and model simulations derives a DRE of -4.9±0.7 Wm-2 and -11.8±1.9 Wm-2 at the TOA and surface, respectively. CTM simulations derive a wide range of DRE estimates that on average are smaller than the measurement-based DRE by about 30-40%, even after accounting for thin cirrus and cloud contamination. A number of issues remain. Current estimates of the aerosol direct effect over land are poorly constrained. Uncertainties of DRE estimates are also larger on regional scales than on a global scale and large discrepancies exist between different approaches. The characterization of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution remains challenging. The aerosol direct effect in the thermal infrared range and in cloudy conditions remains relatively unexplored and quite uncertain, because of a lack of global systematic aerosol vertical profile measurements. A coordinated research strategy needs to be developed for integration and assimilation of satellite measurements into models to constrain model simulations. Enhanced measurement capabilities in the next few years and high-level scientific cooperation will further advance our knowledge.

A multimodel assessment of the influence of regional anthropogenic emission reductions on aerosol direct radiative forcing and the role of intercontinental transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). DRF at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface is estimated based on AOD results from the HTAP models and AOD-normalized DRF (NDRF) from a chemical transport model. The multimodel results show that, on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD (all-sky TOA DRF) by 9.2% (9.0%), 3.5% (3.0%), and 9.4% (10.0%) for sulfate, particulate organic matter (POM), and black carbon (BC), respectively. Global annual average TOA all-sky forcing efficiency relative to particle or gaseous precursor emissions from the four regions (expressed as multimodel mean ± one standard deviation) is  ±3.5 ±0.8,  ±4.0 ±1.7, and 29.5 ±18.1mWm ±2 per Tg for sulfate (relative to SO2), POM, and BC, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport (ICT). On an annual basis, ICT accounts for 11 ±5% to 31 ±9% of AOD and DRF in a receptor region at continental or subcontinental scale, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. For sulfate AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 31 ±9% occurs in South Asia, which is dominated by the emissions from Europe. For BC AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 28 ±18% occurs in North America, which is dominated by the emissions from East Asia. The large spreads among models highlight the need to improve aerosol processes in models, and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Modelling of urban sensible heat flux at multiple spatial scales : a demonstration using airborne hyperspectral imagery of Shanghai and a temperature–emissivity separation approach

Urbanization related alterations to the surface energy balance impact urban warming (‘heat islands’), the growth of the boundary layer, and many other biophysical processes. Traditionally, in situ heat flux measures have been used to quantify such processes, but these typically represent only a small local-scale area within the heterogeneous urban environment. For this reason, remote sensing approaches are very attractive for elucidating more spatially representative information. Here we use hyperspectral imagery from a new airborne sensor, the Operative Modular Imaging Spectrometer (OMIS), along with a survey map and meteorological data, to derive the land cover information and surface parameters required to map spatial variations in turbulent sensible heat flux (QH). The results from two spatially-explicit flux retrieval methods which use contrasting approaches and, to a large degree, different input data are compared for a central urban area of Shanghai, China: (1) the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS) and (2) an Aerodynamic Resistance Method (ARM). Sensible heat fluxes are determined at the full 6 m spatial resolution of the OMIS sensor, and at lower resolutions via pixel aggregation and spatial averaging. At the 6 m spatial resolution, the sensible heat flux of rooftop dominated pixels exceeds that of roads, water and vegetated areas, with values peaking at ∼ 350 W m− 2, whilst the storage heat flux is greatest for road dominated pixels (peaking at around 420 W m− 2). We investigate the use of both OMIS-derived land surface temperatures made using a Temperature–Emissivity Separation (TES) approach, and land surface temperatures estimated from air temperature measures. Sensible heat flux differences from the two approaches over the entire 2 × 2 km study area are less than 30 W m− 2, suggesting that methods employing either strategy maybe practica1 when operated using low spatial resolution (e.g. 1 km) data. Due to the differing methodologies, direct comparisons between results obtained with the LUMPS and ARM methods are most sensibly made at reduced spatial scales. At 30 m spatial resolution, both approaches produce similar results, with the smallest difference being less than 15 W m− 2 in mean QH averaged over the entire study area. This is encouraging given the differing architecture and data requirements of the LUMPS and ARM methods. Furthermore, in terms of mean study QH, the results obtained by averaging the original 6 m spatial resolution LUMPS-derived QH values to 30 and 90 m spatial resolution are within ∼ 5 W m− 2 of those derived from averaging the original surface parameter maps prior to input into LUMPS, suggesting that that use of much lower spatial resolution spaceborne imagery data, for example from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) is likely to be a practical solution for heat flux determination in urban areas.

An urban parameterization for a global climate model. Part I: Formulation and evaluation for two cities

Urbanization, the expansion of built-up areas, is an important yet less-studied aspect of land use/land cover change in climate science. To date, most global climate models used to evaluate effects of land use/land cover change on climate do not include an urban parameterization. Here, the authors describe the formulation and evaluation of a parameterization of urban areas that is incorporated into the Community Land Model, the land surface component of the Community Climate System Model. The model is designed to be simple enough to be compatible with structural and computational constraints of a land surface model coupled to a global climate model yet complex enough to explore physically based processes known to be important in determining urban climatology. The city representation is based upon the “urban canyon” concept, which consists of roofs, sunlit and shaded walls, and canyon floor. The canyon floor is divided into pervious (e.g., residential lawns, parks) and impervious (e.g., roads, parking lots, sidewalks) fractions. Trapping of longwave radiation by canyon surfaces and solar radiation absorption and reflection is determined by accounting for multiple reflections. Separate energy balances and surface temperatures are determined for each canyon facet. A one-dimensional heat conduction equation is solved numerically for a 10-layer column to determine conduction fluxes into and out of canyon surfaces. Model performance is evaluated against measured fluxes and temperatures from two urban sites. Results indicate the model does a reasonable job of simulating the energy balance of cities.

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.

The biosurfactant viscosin produced by Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 aids spreading motility and plant growth promotion

Food security depends on enhancing production and reducing loss to pests and pathogens. A promising alternative to agrochemicals is the use of plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR), which are commonly associated with many, if not all, plant species. However, exploiting the benefits of PGPRs requires knowledge of bacterial function and an in-depth understanding of plant-bacteria associations. Motility is important for colonization efficiency and microbial fitness in the plant environment, but the mechanisms employed by bacteria on and around plants are not well understood. We describe and investigate an atypical mode of motility in Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 that was revealed only after flagellum production was eliminated by deletion of the master regulator fleQ. Our results suggest that this ‘spidery spreading’ is a type of surface motility. Transposon mutagenesis of SBW25ΔfleQ (SBW25Q) produced mutants, defective in viscosin production, and surface spreading was also abolished. Genetic analysis indicated growth-dependency, production of viscosin, and several potential regulatory and secretory systems involved in the spidery spreading phenotype. Moreover, viscosin both increases efficiency of surface spreading over the plant root and protects germinating seedlings in soil infected with the plant pathogen Pythium. Thus, viscosin could be a useful target for biotechnological development of plant growth promotion agents.

The impacts of European and Asian anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on Sahel rainfall

In this study, the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art climate model (HadGEM2-ES) has been used to investigate the impacts of regional anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions on boreal summer Sahel rainfall. The study focuses on the transient response of the West African monsoon (WAM) to a sudden change in regional anthropogenic sulphur dioxide emissions, including land surface feedbacks, but without sea surface temperature (SST) feedbacks. The response occurs in two distinct phases: 1) fast adjustment of the atmosphere on a time scale of days to weeks (up to 3 weeks) through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions with weak hydrological cycle changes and surface feedbacks. 2) adjustment of the atmosphere and land surface with significant local hydrological cycle changes and changes in atmospheric circulation (beyond 3 weeks). European emissions lead to an increase in shortwave (SW) scattering by increased sulphate burden, leading to a decrease in surface downward SW radiation which causes surface cooling over North Africa, a weakening of the Saharan heat low and WAM, and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. In contrast, Asian emissions lead to very little change in sulphate burden over North Africa, but they induce an adjustment of the Walker Circulation which leads again to a weakening of the WAM and a decrease in Sahel precipitation. The responses to European and Asian emissions during the second phase exhibit similar large scale patterns of anomalous atmospheric circulation and hydrological variables, suggesting a preferred response. The results support the idea that sulphate aerosol emissions contributed to the observed decline in Sahel precipitation in the second half of the twentieth century.

A DFT study of the structures, stabilities and redox behaviour of the major surfaces of magnetite Fe3O4

The renewed interest in magnetite (Fe3O4) as a major phase in different types of catalysts has led us to study the oxidation–reduction behaviour of its most prominent surfaces. We have employed computer modelling techniques based on the density functional theory to calculate the geometries and surface free energies of a number of surfaces at different compositions, including the stoichiometric plane, and those with a deficiency or excess of oxygen atoms. The most stable surfaces are the (001) and (111), leading to a cubic Fe3O4 crystal morphology with truncated corners under equilibrium conditions. The scanning tunnelling microscopy images of the different terminations of the (001) and (111) stoichiometric surfaces were calculated and compared with previous reports. Under reducing conditions, the creation of oxygen vacancies in the surface leads to the formation of reduced Fe species in the surface in the vicinity of the vacant oxygen. The (001) surface is slightly more prone to reduction than the (111), due to the higher stabilisation upon relaxation of the atoms around the oxygen vacancy, but molecular oxygen adsorbs preferentially at the (111) surface. In both oxidized surfaces, the oxygen atoms are located on bridge positions between two surface iron atoms, from which they attract electron density. The oxidised state is thermodynamically favourable with respect to the stoichiometric surfaces under ambient conditions, although not under the conditions when bulk Fe3O4 is thermodynamically stable with respect to Fe2O3. This finding is important in the interpretation of the catalytic properties of Fe3O4 due to the presence of oxidised species under experimental conditions.