The utility of convection-permitting ensembles for the prediction of stationary convective bands

This study examines convection-permitting numerical simulations of four cases of terrain-locked quasi-stationary convective bands over the UK. For each case, a 2.2-km grid-length 12-member ensemble and 1.5-km grid-length deterministic forecast are analyzed, each with two different initialization times. Object-based verification is applied to determine whether the simulations capture the structure, location, timing, intensity and duration of the observed precipitation. These verification diagnostics reveal that the forecast skill varies greatly between the four cases. Although the deterministic and ensemble simulations captured some aspects of the precipitation correctly in each case, they never simultaneously captured all of them satisfactorily. In general, the models predicted banded precipitation accumulations at approximately the correct time and location, but the precipitating structures were more cellular and less persistent than the coherent quasi-stationary bands that were observed. Ensemble simulations from the two different initialization times were not significantly different, which suggests a potential benefit of time-lagging subsequent ensembles to increase ensemble size. The predictive skill of the upstream larger-scale flow conditions and the simulated precipitation on the convection-permitting grids were strongly correlated, which suggests that more accurate forecasts from the parent ensemble should improve the performance of the convection-permitting ensemble nested within it.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949-2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing observation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14 °C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

Sole infection by human metapneumovirus among children with radiographically diagnosed community-acquired pneumonia in a tropical region

Background Limited information is available on the role of human metapneumovirus (HMPV) as the unique pathogen among children hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in a tropical region. Objective We aimed to describe HMPV infection among children with CAP investigating bacterial and viral co-infections. Patients and methods A prospective study was carried out in Salvador, North-East Brazil. Overall, 268 children aged <5 years hospitalized for CAP were enrolled. Human metapneumovirus RNA was detected in nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Sixteen other bacterial and viral pathogens were investigated by an expanded panel of laboratory methods. Chest X-ray taken on admission was read by an independent paediatric radiologist unaware of clinical information or the established aetiology. Results Human metapneumovirus RNA was detected in NPAs of 11 (4.1%) children, of which 4 (36%) had sole HMPV infection. The disease was significantly shorter among patients with sole HMPV infection in comparison with patients with mixed infection (4 +/- 1 versus 7 +/- 2 days, P = 0.03). Three of those four patients had alveolar infiltrates. Conclusion Sole HMPV infection was detected in children with CAP in Salvador, North-East Brazil. HMPV may play a role in the childhood CAP burden.

A bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data: local influence and residual analysis

The use of bivariate distributions plays a fundamental role in survival and reliability studies. In this paper, we consider a location scale model for bivariate survival times based on the proposal of a copula to model the dependence of bivariate survival data. For the proposed model, we consider inferential procedures based on maximum likelihood. Gains in efficiency from bivariate models are also examined in the censored data setting. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the bivariate regression model for matched paired survival data. Sensitivity analysis methods such as local and total influence are presented and derived under three perturbation schemes. The martingale marginal and the deviance marginal residual measures are used to check the adequacy of the model. Furthermore, we propose a new measure which we call modified deviance component residual. The methodology in the paper is illustrated on a lifetime data set for kidney patients.

The log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data

In interval-censored survival data, the event of interest is not observed exactly but is only known to occur within some time interval. Such data appear very frequently. In this paper, we are concerned only with parametric forms, and so a location-scale regression model based on the exponentiated Weibull distribution is proposed for modeling interval-censored data. We show that the proposed log-exponentiated Weibull regression model for interval-censored data represents a parametric family of models that include other regression models that are broadly used in lifetime data analysis. Assuming the use of interval-censored data, we employ a frequentist analysis, a jackknife estimator, a parametric bootstrap and a Bayesian analysis for the parameters of the proposed model. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influences on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes and present some ways to assess global influences. Furthermore, for different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulations are performed; in addition, the empirical distribution of some modified residuals are displayed and compared with the standard normal distribution. These studies suggest that the residual analysis usually performed in normal linear regression models can be straightforwardly extended to a modified deviance residual in log-exponentiated Weibull regression models for interval-censored data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hypotheses testing for structural calibration model

The main objective of this paper is to discuss maximum likelihood inference for the comparative structural calibration model (Barnett, in Biometrics 25:129-142, 1969), which is frequently used in the problem of assessing the relative calibrations and relative accuracies of a set of p instruments, each designed to measure the same characteristic on a common group of n experimental units. We consider asymptotic tests to answer the outlined questions. The methodology is applied to a real data set and a small simulation study is presented.

Log-Burr XII regression models with censored data

In survival analysis applications, the failure rate function may frequently present a unimodal shape. In such case, the log-normal or log-logistic distributions are used. In this paper, we shall be concerned only with parametric forms, so a location-scale regression model based on the Burr XII distribution is proposed for modeling data with a unimodal failure rate function as an alternative to the log-logistic regression model. Assuming censored data, we consider a classic analysis, a Bayesian analysis and a jackknife estimator for the parameters of the proposed model. For different parameter settings, sample sizes and censoring percentages, various simulation studies are performed and compared to the performance of the log-logistic and log-Burr XII regression models. Besides, we use sensitivity analysis to detect influential or outlying observations, and residual analysis is used to check the assumptions in the model. Finally, we analyze a real data set under log-Buff XII regression models. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Results of Joint Experiments and other IAEA activities on research using small tokamaks

This paper presents an overview of the results obtained during the Joint Experiments organized in the framework of the IAEA Coordinated Research Project on `Joint Research Using Small Tokamaks` that have been carried out on the tokamaks CASTOR at IPP Prague, Czech Republic (2005), T-10 at RRC `Kurchatov Institute`, Moscow, Russia (2006), and the most recent one at ISTTOK at IST, Lisbon, Portugal, in 2007. Experimental programmes were aimed at diagnosing and characterizing the core and the edge plasma turbulence in a tokamak in order to investigate correlations between the occurrence of transport barriers, improved confinement, electric fields and electrostatic turbulence using advanced diagnostics with high spatial and temporal resolution. On CASTOR and ISTTOK, electric fields were generated by biasing an electrode inserted into the edge plasma and an improvement of the global particle confinement induced by the electrode positive biasing has been observed. Geodesic acoustic modes were studied using heavy ion beam diagnostics on T-10 and ISTTOK and correlation reflectometry on T-10. ISTTOK is equipped with a gallium jet injector and the technical feasibility of gallium jets interacting with plasmas has been investigated in pulsed and ac operation. The first Joint Experiments have clearly demonstrated that small tokamaks are suitable for broad international cooperation to conduct dedicated joint research programmes. Other activities within the IAEA Coordinated Research Project on Joint Research Using Small Tokamaks are also overviewed.

Recurrence quantification analysis of electrostatic fluctuations in fusion plasmas

We have investigated plasma turbulence at the edge of a tokamak plasma using data from electrostatic potential fluctuations measured in the Brazilian tokamak TCABR. Recurrence quantification analysis has been used to provide diagnostics of the deterministic content of the series. We have focused our analysis on the radial dependence of potential fluctuations and their characterization by recurrence-based diagnostics. Our main result is that the deterministic content of the experimental signals is most pronounced at the external part of the plasma column just before the plasma radius. Since the chaoticity of the signals follows the same trend, we have concluded that the electrostatic plasma turbulence at the tokamak plasma edge can be partially explained by means of a deterministic nonlinear system. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three-dimensional description and mathematical characterization of the parasellar internal carotid artery in human infants

Inside the `cavernous sinus` or `parasellar region` the human internal carotid artery takes the shape of a siphon that is twisted and torqued in three dimensions and surrounded by a network of veins. The parasellar section of the internal carotid artery is of broad biological and medical interest, as its peculiar shape is associated with temperature regulation in the brain and correlated with the occurrence of vascular pathologies. The present study aims to provide anatomical descriptions and objective mathematical characterizations of the shape of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery in human infants and its modifications during ontogeny. Three-dimensional (3D) computer models of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery of infants were generated with a state-of-the-art 3D reconstruction method and analysed using both traditional morphometric methods and novel mathematical algorithms. We show that four constant, demarcated bends can be described along the infant parasellar section of the internal carotid artery, and we provide measurements of their angles. We further provide calculations of the curvature and torsion energy, and the total complexity of the 3D skeleton of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery, and compare the complexity of this in infants and adults. Finally, we examine the relationship between shape parameters of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery in infants, and the occurrence of intima cushions, and evaluate the reliability of subjective angle measurements for characterizing the complexity of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery in infants. The results can serve as objective reference data for comparative studies and for medical imaging diagnostics. They also form the basis for a new hypothesis that explains the mechanisms responsible for the ontogenetic transformation in the shape of the parasellar section of the internal carotid artery.

Pseudo-nonlinear and athermal lensing effects on transverse properties of Cr(3+) based solid-state lasers

Several experiments (time-resolved Z-scan experiments based on pulsed and CW pump lasers, time-resolved divergence diagnostics) have been performed to examine and clarify the question of the converging or diverging population lensing effect occurring in a Cr(3+):Al(2)O(3) ruby laser. The dynamics of the laser far-field divergence of such a laser indeed indicated initially a diverging effect while Z-scan measurements conclude to a converging one. The origin of this discrepancy is thus analysed and elucidated here by introducing the general concept of correlation collapse between the centre and the wings of a laser beam having some clipping. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inference and local influence assessment in skew-normal null intercept measurement error model

In this article, we discuss inferential aspects of the measurement error regression models with null intercepts when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew normal distribution. We examine first the maximum-likelihood approach to estimation via the EM algorithm by exploring statistical properties of the model considered. Then, the marginal likelihood, the score function and the observed information matrix of the observed quantities are presented allowing direct inference implementation. In order to discuss some diagnostics techniques in this type of models, we derive the appropriate matrices to assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated considering part of a real data set used by Hadgu and Koch [1999, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 9, 161-178].

Local influence in estimating equations

Local influence diagnostics based on estimating equations as the role of a gradient vector derived from any fit function are developed for repeated measures regression analysis. Our proposal generalizes tools used in other studies (Cook, 1986: Cadigan and Farrell, 2002), considering herein local influence diagnostics for a statistical model where estimation involves an estimating equation in which all observations are not necessarily independent of each other. Moreover, the measures of local influence are illustrated with some simulated data sets to assess influential observations. Applications using real data are presented. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Local influence for Student-t partially linear models

In this paper we extend partial linear models with normal errors to Student-t errors Penalized likelihood equations are applied to derive the maximum likelihood estimates which appear to be robust against outlying observations in the sense of the Mahalanobis distance In order to study the sensitivity of the penalized estimates under some usual perturbation schemes in the model or data the local influence curvatures are derived and some diagnostic graphics are proposed A motivating example preliminary analyzed under normal errors is reanalyzed under Student-t errors The local influence approach is used to compare the sensitivity of the model estimates (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Size and power properties of some tests in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model

The Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions, up to order n(-1/2) and under a sequence of Pitman alternatives, for the non-null distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the Birnbaum-Saunders regression model. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters and for testing the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation is presented in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests. We also present two empirical applications. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.