Paper 4: EUROCAT statistical monitoring: identification and investigation of ten year trends of congenital anomalies in Europe.

BACKGROUND: As part of EUROCAT's surveillance of congenital anomalies in Europe, a statistical monitoring system has been developed to detect recent clusters or long-term (10 year) time trends. The purpose of this article is to describe the system for the identification and investigation of 10-year time trends, conceived as a "screening" tool ultimately leading to the identification of trends which may be due to changing teratogenic factors.METHODS: The EUROCAT database consists of all cases of congenital anomalies including livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestational age, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Monitoring of 10-year trends is performed for each registry for each of 96 non-independent EUROCAT congenital anomaly subgroups, while Pan-Europe analysis combines data from all registries. The monitoring results are reviewed, prioritized according to a prioritization strategy, and communicated to registries for investigation. Twenty-one registries covering over 4 million births, from 1999 to 2008, were included in monitoring in 2010.CONCLUSIONS: Significant increasing trends were detected for abdominal wall anomalies, gastroschisis, hypospadias, Trisomy 18 and renal dysplasia in the Pan-Europe analysis while 68 increasing trends were identified in individual registries. A decreasing trend was detected in over one-third of anomaly subgroups in the Pan-Europe analysis, and 16.9% of individual registry tests. Registry preliminary investigations indicated that many trends are due to changes in data quality, ascertainment, screening, or diagnostic methods. Some trends are inevitably chance phenomena related to multiple testing, while others seem to represent real and continuing change needing further investigation and response by regional/national public health authorities.

The second law of thermodynamics and the global climate system : A review of the maximum entropy production principle

The long-term mean properties of the global climate system and those of turbulent fluid systems are reviewed from a thermodynamic viewpoint. Two general expressions are derived for a rate of entropy production due to thermal and viscous dissipation (turbulent dissipation) in a fluid system. It is shown with these expressions that maximum entropy production in the Earth s climate system suggested by Paltridge, as well as maximum transport properties of heat or momentum in a turbulent system suggested by Malkus and Busse, correspond to a state in which the rate of entropy production due to the turbulent dissipation is at a maximum. Entropy production due to absorption of solar radiation in the climate system is found to be irrelevant to the maximized properties associated with turbulence. The hypothesis of maximum entropy production also seems to be applicable to the planetary atmospheres of Mars and Titan and perhaps to mantle convection. Lorenz s conjecture on maximum generation of available potential energy is shown to be akin to this hypothesis with a few minor approximations. A possible mechanism by which turbulent fluid systems adjust themselves to the states of maximum entropy production is presented as a selffeedback mechanism for the generation of available potential energy. These results tend to support the hypothesis of maximum entropy production that underlies a wide variety of nonlinear fluid systems, including our planet as well as other planets and stars

States of maximum entropy production in a onedimensional vertical model with convective adjustment

We investigate the hypothesis that the atmosphere is constrained to maximize its entropy production by using a one-dimensional (1-D) vertical model. We prescribe the lapse rate in the convective layer as that of the standard troposphere. The assumption that convection sustains a critical lapse rate was absent in previous studies, which focused on the vertical distribution of climatic variables, since such a convective adjustment reduces the degrees of freedom of the system and may prevent the application of the maximum entropy production (MEP) principle. This is not the case in the radiative–convective model (RCM) developed here, since we accept a discontinuity of temperatures at the surface similar to that adopted in many RCMs. For current conditions, the MEP state gives a difference between the ground temperature and the air temperature at the surface ≈10 K. In comparison, conventional RCMs obtain a discontinuity ≈2 K only. However, the surface boundary layer velocity in the MEP state appears reasonable (≈3 m s-¹). Moreover, although the convective flux at the surface in MEP states is almost uniform in optically thick atmospheres, it reaches a maximum value for an optical thickness similar to current conditions. This additional result may support the maximum convection hypothesis suggested by Paltridge (1978)

Extremal climatic states simulated by a 2-dimensional model Part II: Different climatic scenarios

Different climatic simulations have been obtained by using a 2-Dim horizontal energy balancemodel (EBM), which has been constrained to satisfy several extremal principles on dissipationand convection. Moreover, 2 different versions of the model with fixed and variable cloud-coverhave been used. The assumption of an extremal type of behaviour for the climatic system canacquire additional support depending on the similarities found with measured data for pastconditions as well as with usual projections for possible future scenarios

Preretinal partial pressure of oxygen gradients before and after experimental pars plana vitrectomy.

PURPOSE: To evaluate preretinal partial pressure of oxygen (PO2) gradients before and after experimental pars plana vitrectomy. METHODS: Arteriolar, venous, and intervascular preretinal PO2 gradients were recorded in 7 minipigs during slow withdrawal of oxygen-sensitive microelectrodes (10-μm tip diameter) from the vitreoretinal interface to 2 mm into the vitreous cavity. Recordings were repeated after pars plana vitrectomy and balanced salt solution (BSS) intraocular perfusion. RESULTS: Arteriolar, venous, and intervascular preretinal PO2 at the vitreoretinal interface were 62.3 ± 13.8, 22.5 ± 3.3, and 17.0 ± 7.5 mmHg, respectively, before vitrectomy; 97.7 ± 19.9, 40.0 ± 21.9, and 56.3 ± 28.4 mmHg, respectively, immediately after vitrectomy; and 59.0 ± 27.4, 25.2 ± 3.0, and 21.5 ± 4.5 mmHg, respectively, 2½ hours after interruption of BSS perfusion. PO2 2 mm from the vitreoretinal interface was 28.4 ± 3.6 mmHg before vitrectomy; 151.8 ± 4.5 mmHg immediately after vitrectomy; and 34.8 ± 4.1 mmHg 2½ hours after interruption of BSS perfusion. PO2 gradients were still present after vitrectomy, with the same patterns as before vitrectomy. CONCLUSION: Preretinal PO2 gradients are not eliminated after pars plana vitrectomy. During BSS perfusion, vitreous cavity PO2 is very high. Interruption of BSS perfusion evokes progressive equilibration of vitreous cavity PO2 with concomitant progressive return of preretinal PO2 gradients to their previtrectomy patterns. This indicates that preretinal diffusion of oxygen is not altered after vitrectomy. The beneficial effect of vitrectomy in ischemic retinal diseases or macular edema may be related to other mechanisms, such as increased oxygen convection currents or removal of growth factors and cytokines secreted in the vitreous.

A noninvasive method for measuring the velocity of diffuse hydrothermal flow by tracking moving refractive index anomalies

Diffuse flow velocimetry (DFV) is introduced as a new, noninvasive, optical technique for measuring the velocity of diffuse hydrothermal flow. The technique uses images of a motionless, random medium (e.g.,rocks) obtained through the lens of a moving refraction index anomaly (e.g., a hot upwelling). The method works in two stages. First, the changes in apparent background deformation are calculated using particle image velocimetry (PIV). The deformation vectors are determined by a cross correlation of pixel intensities across consecutive images. Second, the 2-D velocity field is calculated by cross correlating the deformation vectors between consecutive PIV calculations. The accuracy of the method is tested with laboratory and numerical experiments of a laminar, axisymmetric plume in fluids with both constant and temperaturedependent viscosity. Results show that average RMS errors are ∼5%–7% and are most accurate in regions of pervasive apparent background deformation which is commonly encountered in regions of diffuse hydrothermal flow. The method is applied to a 25 s video sequence of diffuse flow from a small fracture captured during the Bathyluck’09 cruise to the Lucky Strike hydrothermal field (September 2009). The velocities of the ∼10°C–15°C effluent reach ∼5.5 cm/s, in strong agreement with previous measurements of diffuse flow. DFV is found to be most accurate for approximately 2‐D flows where background objects have a small spatial scale, such as sand or gravel

International Olympic Committee consensus statement on thermoregulatory and altitude challenges for high-level athletes.

Challenging environmental conditions, including heat and humidity, cold, and altitude, pose particular risks to the health of Olympic and other high-level athletes. As a further commitment to athlete safety, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) Medical Commission convened a panel of experts to review the scientific evidence base, reach consensus, and underscore practical safety guidelines and new research priorities regarding the unique environmental challenges Olympic and other international-level athletes face. For non-aquatic events, external thermal load is dependent on ambient temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation, while clothing and protective gear can measurably increase thermal strain and prompt premature fatigue. In swimmers, body heat loss is the direct result of convection at a rate that is proportional to the effective water velocity around the swimmer and the temperature difference between the skin and the water. Other cold exposure and conditions, such as during Alpine skiing, biathlon and other sliding sports, facilitate body heat transfer to the environment, potentially leading to hypothermia and/or frostbite; although metabolic heat production during these activities usually increases well above the rate of body heat loss, and protective clothing and limited exposure time in certain events reduces these clinical risks as well. Most athletic events are held at altitudes that pose little to no health risks; and training exposures are typically brief and well-tolerated. While these and other environment-related threats to performance and safety can be lessened or averted by implementing a variety of individual and event preventative measures, more research and evidence-based guidelines and recommendations are needed. In the mean time, the IOC Medical Commission and International Sport Federations have implemented new guidelines and taken additional steps to mitigate risk even further.

Localization and characterization of an active fault in an urbanized area in central Guatemala by means of geoelectrical imaging

The Polochic and Motagua faults define the active plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates in central Guatemala. A splay of the Polochic Fault traverses the rapidly growing city of San Miguel Uspantan that is periodically affected by destructive earthquakes. This fault splay was located using a 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey that also characterized the fault damage zone and evaluated the thickness and nature of recent deposits upon which most of the city is built. ERT images show the fault as a similar to 50 m wide, near-vertical low-resistivity anomaly, bounded within a few meters by high resistivity anomalies. Forward modeling reproduces the key aspects of the observed electrical resistivity data with remarkable fidelity thus defining the overall location, geometry, and internal structure of the fault zone as well as the affected lithologies. Our results indicate that the city is constructed on a similar to 20 m thick surficial layer consisting of poorly consolidated, highly porous, water-logged pumice. This soft layer is likely to amplify seismic waves and to liquefy upon moderate to strong ground shaking. The electrical conductivity as well as the major element chemistry of the groundwater provides evidence to suggest that the local aquifer might, at least in part, be fed by water rising along the fault. Therefore, the potential threat posed by this fault splay may not be limited to its seismic activity per se, but could be compounded its potential propensity to enhance seismic site effects by injecting water into the soft surficial sediments. The results of this study provide the basis for a rigorous analysis of seismic hazard and sustainable development of San Miguel Uspantan and illustrate the potential of ERT surveying for paleoseismic studies.

Contribution of ultrasonographic examination to the prenatal detection of trisomy 21: experience from 19 European registers.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the contribution of ultrasound scanning to the prenatal detection of trisomy 21 in a large unselected European population. Data from 19 congenital malformation registers in 11 European countries were included. The prenatal ultrasound screening programs in the countries ranged from no routine screening to three ultrasound investigations per patient. Routine serum screening was offered in four of the 11 countries and routine screening on the basis of maternal age amniocentesis in all. The results show that overall 53% of cases of trisomy 21 were detected prenatally with a range from 3% in Lithuania to 88% in Paris. Ninety-eight percent of women whose babies were diagnosed before 24 weeks gestation chose to terminate the pregnancy. Centres/countries that offer serum screening do not have a significantly higher detection rate of trisomy 21 when compared to those that offer maternal age amniocentesis and anomaly scanning only. Fifty percent of trisomy 21 cases were born to women aged 35 years or more. In conclusions, second trimester ultrasound plays an important role in the prenatal diagnosis of trisomy 21. Of those cases prenatally diagnosed, 64% of cases in women <35 years and 36% of those in women >or=35 years were detected because of an ultrasound finding. Ultrasound soft markers accounted for 84% of the scan diagnoses. There is evidence of increasing maternal age across Europe with 50% of cases of trisomy 21 born to women aged 35 years or more.

Mass conservative three-dimensional water tracer distribution from Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of time-lapse ground-penetrating radar data

Time-lapse geophysical measurements are widely used to monitor the movement of water and solutes through the subsurface. Yet commonly used deterministic least squares inversions typically suffer from relatively poor mass recovery, spread overestimation, and limited ability to appropriately estimate nonlinear model uncertainty. We describe herein a novel inversion methodology designed to reconstruct the three-dimensional distribution of a tracer anomaly from geophysical data and provide consistent uncertainty estimates using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Posterior sampling is made tractable by using a lower-dimensional model space related both to the Legendre moments of the plume and to predefined morphological constraints. Benchmark results using cross-hole ground-penetrating radar travel times measurements during two synthetic water tracer application experiments involving increasingly complex plume geometries show that the proposed method not only conserves mass but also provides better estimates of plume morphology and posterior model uncertainty than deterministic inversion results.

Mesozoic sequence of Fuerteventura (Canary Islands): Witness of Early Jurassic sea-floor spreading in the central Atlantic

The Fuerteventura Jurassic sedimentary succession consists of oceanic and elastic deposits, the latter derived from the southwestern Moroccan continental margin. Normal mid-oceanic-ridge basalt (N-MORB) flows and breccias are found at the base of the sequence and witness sea-floor spreading events in the central Atlantic. These basalts were extruded in a postrift environment (post-late Pliensbachian), We propose a Toarcian age for the Atlantic oceanic floor in this region, on the basis of the presence higher up in the sequence of the Bositra buchi filament microfacies (Aalenian-Bajocian) and of elastic deposits reflecting tectono-eustatic events (e.g,, late Toarcian to mid-Callovian erosion of the rift shoulder). The S-l sea-floor oceanic magnetic anomaly west of Fuerteventura is therefore at least Toarcian in age. The remaining sequence records Atlantic-Tethyan basinal facies (e.g., Callovian-Oxfordian red clays, Aptian-Albian black shales) alternating with elastic deposits (e.g., Kimmeridgian-Berriasian periplatform calciturbidites and a Lower Cretaceous deep-sea fan system). The Fuerteventura N-MORB outcrops represent the only Early Jurassic oceanic basement described so far in the central Atlantic. They are covered by a 1600 m, nearly continuous sedimentary sequence which extends to Upper Cretaceous facies.

Geochemical changes at the Permian-Triassic transition in Southern Alps and adjacent area: a review

Compilation of the recent literature from the Southern Alps and adjacent area confirms the geochemical variations of unusual amplitudes during the Permian-Triassic boundary interval (PTBI). A great attention has been given to the negative δ13C anomaly within the Tesero Member close to the Permian-Triassic boundary. Very detailed geochemical works have been done on the scientific Gartnerkofel core (Gk-1) and on the Slovenian sections. Major minor and rare earth elements (REE) data are reported and show a marked enrichment in alkaline metals and REE of some levels of the boundary interval. But recent studies show that the low Iridium anomalies and the Osmium and Helium isotopes anomalies lack the characteristics of a large extraterrestrial impact.

Descriptive epidemiology of Cornelia de Lange syndrome in Europe.

Cornelia de Lange syndrome (CdLS) is a multiple congenital anomaly/mental retardation syndrome consisting of characteristic dysmorphic features, microcephaly, hypertrichosis, upper limb defects, growth retardation, developmental delay, and a variety of associated malformations. We present a population-based epidemiological study of the classical form of CdLS. The data were extracted from the database of European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) database, a European network of birth defect registries which follow a standard methodology. Based on 23 years of epidemiologic monitoring (8,558,346 births in the 1980-2002 period), we found the prevalence of the classical form of CdLS to be 1.24/100,000 births or 1:81,000 births and estimated the overall CdLS prevalence at 1.6-2.2/100,000. Live born children accounted for 91.5% (97/106) of cases, fetal deaths 2.8% (3/106), and terminations of pregnancy following prenatal diagnosis 5.7% (6/106). The most frequent associated congenital malformations were limb defects (73.1%), congenital heart defects (45.6%), central nervous system malformations (40.2%), and cleft palate (21.7%). In the last 11 years, as much as 68% of cases with major malformations were not detected by routine prenatal US. Live born infants with CdLS have a high first week survival (91.4%). All patients were sporadic. Maternal and paternal age did not seem to be risk factors for CdLS. Almost 70% of patients, born after the 37th week of gestation, weighed <or=2,500 g. Low birth weight correlated with a more severe phenotype. Severe limb anomalies were significantly more often present in males.

Anomalous crossover between thermal and shot noise in macroscopic diffusive conductors

We predict the existence of an anomalous crossover between thermal and shot noise in macroscopic diffusive conductors. We first show that, besides thermal noise, these systems may also exhibit shot noise due to fluctuations of the total number of carriers in the system. Then we show that at increasing currents the crossover between the two noise behaviors is anomalous, in the sense that the low-frequency current spectral density displays a region with a superlinear dependence on the current up to a cubic law. The anomaly is due to the nontrivial coupling in the presence of the long-range Coulomb interaction among the three time scales relevant to the phenomenon, namely, diffusion, transit, and dielectric relaxation time.

Multiple roles of mouse Numb in tuning developmental cell fates.

BACKGROUND: Notch signaling regulates multiple differentiation processes and cell fate decisions during both invertebrate and vertebrate development. Numb encodes an intracellular protein that was shown in Drosophila to antagonize Notch signaling at binary cell fate decisions of certain cell lineages. Although overexpression experiments suggested that Numb might also antagonize some Notch activity in vertebrates, the developmental processes in which Numb is involved remained elusive. RESULTS: We generated mice with a homozygous inactivation of Numb. These mice died before embryonic day E11.5, probably because of defects in angiogenic remodeling and placental dysfunction. Mutant embryos had an open anterior neural tube and impaired neuronal differentiation within the developing cranial central nervous system (CNS). In the developing spinal cord, the number of differentiated motoneurons was reduced. Within the peripheral nervous system (PNS), ganglia of cranial sensory neurons were formed. Trunk neural crest cells migrated and differentiated into sympathetic neurons. In contrast, a selective differentiation anomaly was observed in dorsal root ganglia, where neural crest--derived progenitor cells had migrated normally to form ganglionic structures, but failed to differentiate into sensory neurons. CONCLUSIONS: Mouse Numb is involved in multiple developmental processes and required for cell fate tuning in a variety of lineages. In the nervous system, Numb is required for the generation of a large subset of neuronal lineages. The restricted requirement of Numb during neural development in the mouse suggests that in some neuronal lineages, Notch signaling may be regulated independently of Numb.