Ecosystem services, biodiversity and environmental change in a tropical mountain ecosystem of south Ecuador

An interdisciplinary research unit consisting of 30 teams in the natural, economic and social sciences analyzed biodiversity and ecosystem services of a mountain rainforest ecosystem in the hotspot of the tropical Andes, with special reference to past, current and future environmental changes. The group assessed ecosystem services using data from ecological field and scenario-driven model experiments, and with the help of comparative field surveys of the natural forest and its anthropogenic replacement system for agriculture. The book offers insights into the impacts of environmental change on various service categories mentioned in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005): cultural, regulating, supporting and provisioning ecosystem services. Examples focus on biodiversity of plants and animals including trophic networks, and abiotic/biotic parameters such as soils, regional climate, water, nutrient and sediment cycles. The types of threats considered include land use and climate changes, as well as atmospheric fertilization. In terms of regulating and provisioning services, the emphasis is primarily on water regulation and supply as well as climate regulation and carbon sequestration. With regard to provisioning services, the synthesis of the book provides science-based recommendations for a sustainable land use portfolio including several options such as forestry, pasture management and the practices of indigenous peoples. In closing, the authors show how they integrated the local society by pursuing capacity building in compliance with the CBD-ABS (Convention on Biological Diversity - Access and Benefit Sharing), in the form of education and knowledge transfer for application.

Two-phase change in CO2, Antarctic temperature and global climate during Termination II

The end of the Last Glacial Maximum (Termination I), roughly 20 thousand years ago (ka), was marked by cooling in the Northern Hemisphere, a weakening of the Asian monsoon, a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and warming over Antarctica. The sequence of events associated with the previous glacial–interglacial transition (Termination II), roughly 136 ka, is less well constrained. Here we present high-resolution records of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and isotopic composition of N2—an atmospheric temperature proxy—from air bubbles in the EPICA Dome C ice core that span Termination II. We find that atmospheric CO2 concentrations and Antarctic temperature started increasing in phase around 136 ka, but in a second phase of Termination II, from 130.5 to 129 ka, the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations lagged that of Antarctic temperature unequivocally. We suggest that during this second phase, the intensification of the low-latitude hydrological cycle resulted in the development of a CO2 sink, which counteracted the CO2 outgassing from the Southern Hemisphere oceans over this period.

Immune modulation alters brain opioid activities: Evidence for a role of muramyl dipeptide in the process of neuroimmunemodulation

During the last twenty years a scientific basis for the anecdotal reports of an interaction between the brain and the immune system has established neuroimmunemodulation as a new field of study in the biomedical sciences. A means for the brain to exert a regulatory influence upon various lymphoid reactions has been well established by many investigators world wide. This dissertation was geared to test the central hypothesis that the immune system, in turn, produces signals which affect CNS functions. Specifically, it is shown through several different experiments, behavioral and electrophysiologic, that the immune modifiers interferon-alpha, gamma irradiation, cyclosporine-A and muramyl-dipeptide modify brain opioid related activities. Each agent attenuates naloxone-precipitated morphine withdrawal following either systemic or intracranial injection. Each agent also has effects upon either the acute antinociceptive or hypothermic activities of morphine. Finally, each agent modifies baseline evoked electrical activity of several brain areas of awake freely-behaving rats. Later studies demonstrate that muramyl-dipeptide modifies the unit firing rate of single neurons in the brain following either systemic or localized administration within the brain. These results suggest that the immune system produces signals which affect brain activity; and thus, support the contention of a bi-directional interaction between the brain and the immune system. ^

Does cigarette smoking modify the association between change in body mass index during young adulthood and risk of coronary mortality during middle-age in men? Twenty-five year follow-up results from the Chicago Western Electric Study

Many persons in the U.S. gain weight during young adulthood, and the prevalence of obesity has been increasing among young adults. Although obesity and physical inactivity are generally recognized as risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD), the magnitude of their effect on risk may have been seriously underestimated due to failure to adequately handle the problem of cigarette smoking. Since cigarette smoking causes weight loss, physically inactive cigarette smokers may remain relatively lean because they smoke cigarettes. We hypothesize cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain during young adulthood and risk of coronary heart disease during middle age, and that the true effect of weight gain during young adulthood on risk of CHD can be assessed only in persons who have not smoked cigarettes. Specifically, we hypothesize that weight gain during young adulthood is positively associated with risk of CHD during middle-age in nonsmokers but that the association is much smaller or absent entirely among cigarette smokers. The purpose of this study was to test this hypothesis. The population for analysis was comprised of 1,934 middle-aged, employed men whose average age at the baseline examination was 48.7 years. Information collected at the baseline examinations in 1958 and 1959 included recalled weight at age 20, present weight, height, smoking status, and other CHD risk factors. To decrease the effect of intraindividual variation, the mean values of the 1958 and 1959 baseline examinations were used in analyses. Change in body mass index ($\Delta$BMI) during young adulthood was the primary exposure variable and was measured as BMI at baseline (kg/m$\sp2)$ minus BMI at age 20 (kg/m$\sp2).$ Proportional hazards regression analysis was used to generate relative risks of CHD mortality by category of $\Delta$BMI and cigarette smoking status after adjustment for age, family history of CVD, major organ system disease, BMI at age 20, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. Adjustment was not performed for systolic blood pressure or total serum cholesterol as these were regarded as intervening variables. Vital status was known for all men on the 25th anniversary of their baseline examinations. 705 deaths (including 319 CHD deaths) occurred over 40,136 person-years of experience. $\Delta$BMI was positively associated with risk of CHD mortality in never-smokers, but not in ever-smokers (p for interaction = 0.067). For never-smokers with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 1.62, 1.61, and 2.78, respectively (p for trend = 0.010). For ever-smokers, with $\Delta$BMI of stable, low gain, moderate gain, and high gain, adjusted relative risks were 1.00, 0.74, 1.07, and 1.06, respectively (p for trend = 0.422). These results support the research hypothesis that cigarette smoking modifies the association between weight gain and CHD mortality. Current estimates of the magnitude of effect of obesity and physical inactivity on risk of coronary mortality may have been seriously underestimated due to inadequate handling of cigarette smoking. ^

How nice is good for patients and for therapy outcome? The role of confrontation in the process of psychotherapy

It is well established that the therapeutic relationship contributes about as much to therapy outcome as 'technical' intervention. Furthermore, it follows clear prescriptive concepts in the same manner as technical interventions do. 'Motive Oriented Therapeutic Relationship' is such a concept for establishing a solid basis for whatever therapeutic work the patients' problems require (Grawe, 1980, 1992; Caspar, 1996). Yet, the therapeutic relationship doesn't explain everything because other factors play a significant role too. Previous studies showed that outcome is clearly better when therapists achieved a generally high quality of a therapeutic relationship when they did not shy away from possibly threatening interventions such as confrontations. This ratio of a fruitful alliance and marginally present confrontations in the same session also showed significant correlations with patient's assessment of alliance and progress in therapy (Figlioli et al., 2009).Aim: The current state of research in the field does not give any answers to questions like how good and bad confrontations can be characterized or what role does the intensity, respectively frequency of confrontations play in the process of psychotherapy. Methods: A sample of 80 therapies of 3 sessions each representing either good or bad outcome was judged moment by moment by independent raters if and how therapists used confrontative interventions. Results: Preliminary analyses show that successful confrontations are explicitly uttered, short but intense, related to important patients goals in therapy and embedded in prior complementarity. Discussion: The results will be discussed in terms of their implications for the clinical daily work.

How nice is good for patients and for therapy outcome? The role of confrontation in the process of psychotherapy

It is well established that the therapeutic relationship contributes about as much to therapy outcome as ‘technical’ intervention. Furthermore, it follows clear prescriptive concepts in the same manner as technical interventions do. ‘Motive Oriented Therapeutic Relationship’ is such a concept for establishing a solid basis for whatever therapeutic work the patients’ problems require (Grawe, 1980, 1992; Caspar, 1996). Yet, the therapeutic relationship doesn’t explain everything because other factors play a significant role too. Previous studies showed that outcome is clearly better when therapists achieved a generally high quality of a therapeutic relationship when they did not shy away from possibly threatening interventions such as confrontations. This ratio of a fruitful alliance and marginally present confrontations in the same session also showed significant correlations with patient’s assessment of alliance and progress in therapy (Figlioli et al., 2009). These findings are also very much in line with Sachse’s metaphor of accumulating, but then also using ‘relationship credits’ and Farrelly’s ‘Provocative Therapy’ (1986), as well as the ‘Intensive Short-Term Dynamic Psychotherapy’ by Davanloo (1980).Aim: The current state of research in the field does not give any answers to questions like how good and bad confrontations can be characterized or what role does the intensity, respectively frequency of confrontations play in the process of psychotherapy.Methods: A sample of 80 therapies of 3 sessions each representing either good or bad outcome was judged moment by moment by independent raters if and how therapists used confrontative interventions. Results / Discussion: The results will be discussed in terms of their implications for the clinical daily work. Preliminary analyses show that successful confrontations are explicitly uttered, short but intense, related to important patients goals in therapy and embedded in prior complementarity.

Shifting cultivation stability and change: Contrasting pathways of land use and livelihood change in Laos

Rural areas in Laos are experiencing a rapid transformation from traditional rice-based shifting cultivation systems to more permanent and diversified market-oriented cultivation systems. The consequences of these changes for local livelihoods are not well known. This study analyzes the impact of shifting cultivation change on the livelihood of rural people in six villages in three districts of northern and central Laos. Focus group discussions and household interview questionnaires were employed for data collection. The study reveals that the shifting cultivation of rice is still important in these communities, but it is being intensified as cash crops are introduced. Changes in shifting cultivation during the past ten years vary greatly between the communities studied. In the northern study sites, it is decreasing in areas with rubber expansion and increasing in areas with maize expansion, while it is stable in the central site, where sugarcane is an important cash crop. The impacts of land use change on livelihoods are also diverse. Cash crop producers hold more agricultural land than non-cash crop producers, and rubber and sugarcane producers have fewer rice shortages than non-producers. In the future, livelihood improvements in the central study site may be replicated in the northern sites, but this depends to a large extent on the economic and agricultural settings into which cash crops and other development opportunities are introduced. Moreover, the expansion of cash crops appears to counteract Lao policies aimed at replacing shifting cultivation areas with forests.

Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.

Local Rates of Ice-Sheet Thickness Change in Greenland

The rate of ice-sheet thickness change is calculated for 10 sites in Greenland by comparing measured values of ice vertical velocity and snow-accumulation rate. Vertical velocities are derived from repeat surveys of markers using precision global positioning system techniques, and accumulation rates are determined from stratigraphic analysis of firn cores. The results apply to time-scales covered by the firn-core records, which in most cases are a few decades. A spectrum of thickness-change rates is obtained, ranging from substantial thinning to slow thickening. The sites where ice-sheet thinning is indicated are located near the ice-sheet margin or in outlet glacier catchments. Interior and high-elevation sites are predominantly in balance or thickening slowly. Uncertainties in the rates of thickness change are dominated by errors in the determination of accumulation rates. The results of this work are broadly comparable with regional estimates of mass balance obtained from the analysis of catchment input vs discharge.

Climate change in Switzerland: a review of physical, institutional, and political aspects

Climate change is clearly discernible in observed climate records in Switzerland. It impacts on natural systems, ecosystems, and economic sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and energy, and it affects Swiss livelihood in various ways. The observed and projected changes call for a response from the political system, which in Switzerland is characterized by federalism and direct democratic instruments. Swiss climate science embraces natural and social sciences and builds on institutionalized links between researchers, public, and private stakeholders. In this article, we review the physical, institutional, and political aspects of climate change in Switzerland. We show how the current state of Swiss climate science and policy developed over the past 20 years in the context of international developments and national responses. Specific to Switzerland is its topographic setting with mountain regions and lowlands on both sides of the Alpine ridge, which makes climate change clearly apparent and for some aspects (tourist sector, hydropower, and extreme events) highly relevant and better perceivable (e.g., retreating glaciers). Not surprisingly the Alpine region is of central interest in Swiss climate change studies.

The dating of dipterocarp tree rings: establishing a record of carbon cycling and climatic change in the tropics

In a first step to obtain a proxy record of past climatic events (including the El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation) in the normally aseasonal tropical environment of Sabah, a radial segment from a recently fallen dipterocarp (Shorea Superba) was radiocarbon dated and subjected to carbon isotope analysis. The high-precision radiocarbon results fell into the ambiguous modern plateau where several calibrated dates can exist for each sample. Dating was achieved by wiggle matching using a Bayesian approach to calibration. Using the defined growth characteristics of Shorea superba, probability density distributions were calculated and improbable dates rejected. It was found that the tree most likely started growing around AD 1660-1685. A total of 173 apparent growth increments were measured and, therefore, it could be determined that the tree formed one ring approximately every two years. Stable carbon isotope values were obtained from resin-extracted wholewood from each ring. Carbon cycling is evident in the `juvenile effect', resulting from the assimilation of respired carbon dioxide and lower light levels below the canopy, and in the `anthropogenic effect' caused by increased industrial activity in the late-nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This study demonstrates that palaeoenvironmental information can be obtained from trees growing in aseasonal environments, where climatic conditions prevent the formation of well-defined annual rings.