Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Why do emerging economies borrow short term?

We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaperthan borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as in these episodes therelative cost of long-term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereignbond prices, returns, and issuances at di¤erent maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher riskpremium on long-term than on short-term bonds. During crises, the di¤erence between the tworisk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument,we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk sharingproblem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk averse internationalinvestors.

Wild bids. Gambling for resurrection in procurement contracts

This paper analyzes the problem of abnormally low tenders in theprocurement process. Limited liability causes firms in a bad financialsituation to bid more aggressively than good firms in the procurementauction. Therefore, it is more likely that the winning firm is a firm infinancial difficulties with a high risk of bankruptcy. The paper analyzesthe different regulatory practices to face this problem with a specialemphasis on surety bonds used e.g. in the US. We characterize the optimalsurety bond and show that it does not coincide with the current USregulation. In particular we show that under a natural assumption the USregulation is too expensive and provides overinsurance to the problem ofabnormally low tenders.

Classification of cell death: recommendations of the Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death 2009

Different types of cell death are often defined by morphological criteria, without a clear reference to precise biochemical mechanisms. The Nomenclature Committee on Cell Death (NCCD) proposes unified criteria for the definition of cell death and of its different morphologies, while formulating several caveats against the misuse of words and concepts that slow down progress in the area of cell death research. Authors, reviewers and editors of scientific periodicals are invited to abandon expressions like 'percentage apoptosis' and to replace them with more accurate descriptions of the biochemical and cellular parameters that are actually measured. Moreover, at the present stage, it should be accepted that caspase-independent mechanisms can cooperate with (or substitute for) caspases in the execution of lethal signaling pathways and that 'autophagic cell death' is a type of cell death occurring together with (but not necessarily by) autophagic vacuolization. This study details the 2009 recommendations of the NCCD on the use of cell death-related terminology including 'entosis', 'mitotic catastrophe', 'necrosis', 'necroptosis' and 'pyroptosis'.

On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

Risk management under a two-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents several applications to interest rate risk managementbased on a two-factor continuous-time model of the term structure of interestrates previously presented in Moreno (1996). This model assumes that defaultfree discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and twofactors, the long-term interest rate and the spread (difference between thelong-term rate and the short-term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Several newmeasures of ``generalized duration" are presented and applied in differentsituations in order to manage market risk and yield curve risk. By means ofthese measures, we are able to compute the hedging ratios that allows us toimmunize a bond portfolio by means of options on bonds. Focusing on thehedging problem, it is shown that these new measures allow us to immunize abond portfolio against changes (parallel and/or in the slope) in the yieldcurve. Finally, a proposal of solution of the limitations of conventionalduration by means of these new measures is presented and illustratednumerically.

Comunidade política, imigração e coesão social: o caso português

O presente trabalho é um contributo para entender em que medida a existência de múltiplas pertenças étnico-culturais na comunidade política é conciliável com a manutenção de uma comunidade socialmente coesa e politicamente unitária. Tendo em conta a realidade imigratória em Portugal, procurou-se saber quais os laços que ligam os imigrantes à comunidade política e em que medida eles podem ser mobilizados para a integração dos imigrantes num projecto comum de vivência em território nacional. Metodologicamente, este trabalho tem por base a análise qualitativa e quantitativa das políticas e medidas adoptados em Portugal em matéria de imigração, bem como, os resultados do trabalho empírico por nós realizado junto de dois grupos de imigrantes (brasileiros e cabo-verdianos) residentes na área metropolitana de Lisboa, assim como os resultados de um questionário enviado às associações de imigrantes. Os resultados da pesquisa apontam para a existência de uma certa ambivalência política no processo de integração dos imigrantes, a qual se reflecte de algum modo na forma como os nacionais e os imigrantes valorizam o contributo dos imigrantes para a sociedade portuguesa, sobressaindo uma ideia difusa generalizada de que os custos da imigração não compensam os seus benefícios, o que provavelmente afectará o relacionamento recíproco. Apesar de situações objectivas de desigualdade social e económica e da percepção de discriminação existente entre os imigrantes, é possível identificar uma progressiva universalização da cidadania e a aceitação formal das tradições religiosas e culturais dos imigrantes, mesmo não sendo o parlamento português representativo dessa diversidade. Deste modo, afigura-se ser possível assegurar direitos específicos de protecção das minorias étnicas e culturais sem que seja necessária a etnicização ou a culturalização da representação política e os princípios gerais que estruturam a comunidade política nacional poderão ser suficientes para assegurar essa protecção. No entanto, existem indícios que sugerem que o acesso dos imigrantes à esfera pública poderá não ser fácil, o que se poderá traduzir na visibilidade e na discussão pública das suas reivindicações, com consequências a nível do tipo de políticas de integração adoptadas em Portugal.

A two-mean reverting-factor model of the term structure of interest rates

This paper presents a two--factor model of the term structure ofinterest rates. We assume that default free discount bond prices aredetermined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long--term interestrate and the spread (difference between the long--term rate and theshort--term (instantaneous) riskless rate). Assuming that both factorsfollow a joint Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process, a general bond pricing equationis derived. We obtain a closed--form expression for bond prices andexamine its implications for the term structure of interest rates. We alsoderive a closed--form solution for interest rate derivatives prices. Thisexpression is applied to price European options on discount bonds andmore complex types of options. Finally, empirical evidence of the model'sperformance is presented.

Transformations in Deuteronomistic and Biblical Historiography. On "Book-Finding" and other Literary Strategies

L'a. cherche à dater l'historiographie deutéronomiste et à établir une transformation à l'intérieur de cette historiographie. Les écrits de propagande de l'époque de Josias (Rois, Deutéronome, Josué, Exode et Nombres) ont été changés après la catastrophe de 597/87 en récit historique prenant une distance et présentant la Tora prenant la relève de l'autorité perdue du Temple. L'A. peut ainsi pencher pour une rédaction de ce courant historiographique datant de l'époque post-éxilique.

Infrastructure Annual Status Report - DOT

Per legislative requirement, attached is the Iowa Department of Transportation’s summary of project status for infrastructure projects that have been appropriated revenue from various funds including Rebuild Iowa Infrastructure, Health Restricted Capitals, Bridge Safety, and Revenue Bonds Capitals. If you have any questions, please contact Stuart Anderson at 515-239-1661 or stuart.anderson@dot.iowa.gov.

Executive Order Number Twenty-One, February 1, 2010

Orders that the Executive Director of the Iowa Finance Authority, shall serve as the Governor’s designee related to the issuance of Qualified Midwestern Disaster Area Bonds.

Iowa Department of Transportation’s summary of project status for infrastructure projects

Per legislative requirement, attached is the Iowa Department of Transportation’s summary of project status for infrastructure projects that have been appropriated revenue from various funds including Rebuild Iowa Infrastructure, Health Restricted Capitals, Bridge Safety, Revenue Bonds Capitals, and Revenue Bonds Capitals II. Although a status report for the Bridge Safety Fund was already submitted to the directors of LSA and DOM, a status report on those projects is also included within this attachment for consistency with last year’s reporting. In addition, per request from LSA, status reports for the FY 2011 passenger rail appropriation from the Underground Storage Tank Fund and the FY 2010 Commercial Service Vertical Infrastructure appropriation from the General Fund are also listed in this report.

Recherche de l'iridium à la limite Permien-Trias du site de Meishan, Changhsing (R. P. Chine).

La forte teneur en elements siderophiles des sediments de la limite Cretace-Tertiaire suggere que les principaJes disparitions d'especes ont ete provoquees par des catastrophes cosmiques. Cette hypothese pourrait etre confirmee par la decouverte d'une anomaJie similaire it la limite Permien-Trias, caracterisee par la plus grave crise biologique du Phanerozoique. L'etude du site de Meishan, en Republique populaire de Chine, n'apporte aucune confirmation de ce scenario. Aucune trace d'iridium, Ie meilleur traceur de la matiere extraterrestre, n'a ete trouvee dans les 18 echantillons preleves au voisinage de la transition Permien-Trias. Toute relation entre la crise biologique du Permien-Trias et une catastrophe cosmique doit donc, pour l'instant, etre consideree comme hypothetique. The presence of siderophile-enriched material at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary suggests that the major extinctions of living species could result from cosmic catastrophes. The finding of the same kind of material at the Permian-Triassic boundary would be important to confirm the influence of cosmic phenomena on extinctions. The study of the M eishan section, in China, does not provide any support to this view. Iridium, the best tracer of cosmic material, has not been detected in any of the 18 samples collected around the boundary. A relation between the Permian-Triassic extinction and a cosmic collision therefore remains hypothetical.

Modifications in the Si valence band after ion-beam-induced oxidation

The changes undergone by the Si surface after oxygen bombardment have special interest for acquiring a good understanding of the Si+-ion emission during secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) analysis. For this reason a detailed investigation on the stoichiometry of the builtup surface oxides has been carried out using in situ x-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS). The XPS analysis of the Si 2p core level indicates a strong presence of suboxide chemical states when bombarding at angles of incidence larger than 30°. In this work a special emphasis on the analysis and interpretation of the valence band region was made. Since the surface stoichiometry or degree of oxidation varies with the angle of incidence, the respective valence band structures also differ. A comparison with experimentally measured and theoretically derived Si valence band and SiO2 valence band suggests that the new valence bands are formed by a combination of these two. This arises from the fact that Si¿Si bonds are present on the Si¿suboxide molecules, and therefore the corresponding 3p-3p Si-like subband, which extends towards the Si Fermi level, forms the top of the respective new valence bands. Small variations in intensity and energy position for this subband have drastic implications on the intensity of the Si+-ion emission during sputtering in SIMS measurements. A model combining chemically enhanced emission and resonant tunneling effects is suggested for the variations observed in ion emission during O+2 bombardment for Si targets.

Model for the emission of Si+ ions during oxygen bombardment of Si(100) surfaces

The variation in the emission of Si+ ions from ion-beam-induced oxidized silicon surfaces has been studied. The stoichiometry and the electronic structure of the altered layer has been characterized using x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The XPS analysis of the Si 2p core level indicates the strong presence of suboxide chemical states when bombarding at angles of incidence larger than 30 °. Since the surface stoichiometry or degree of oxidation varies with the angle of incidence, the corresponding valence-band structures also differ among each other. A comparison between experimental measurements and theoretically calculated Si and SiO2 valence bands indicates that the valence bands for the altered layers are formed by a combination of those two. Since Si-Si bonds are present in the suboxide molecules, the top of the respective new valence bands are formed by the corresponding 3p-3p Si-like subbands, which extend up to the Si Fermi level. The changes in stoichiometry and electronic structure have been correlated with the emission of Si+ ions from these surfaces. From the results a general model for the Si+ ion emission is proposed combining the resonant tunneling and local-bond-breaking models.