A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Current status of pharmacogenomics testing for anti-tumor drug therapies : approaches to non-melanoma skin cancer

Skin cancer is one of the most commonly occurring cancer types, with substantial social, physical, and financial burdens on both individuals and societies. Although the role of UV light in initiating skin cancer development has been well characterized, genetic studies continue to show that predisposing factors can influence an individual's susceptibility to skin cancer and response to treatment. In the future, it is hoped that genetic profiles, comprising a number of genetic markers collectively involved in skin cancer susceptibility and response to treatment or prognosis, will aid in more accurately informing practitioners' choices of treatment. Individualized treatment based on these profiles has the potential to increase the efficacy of treatments, saving both time and money for the patient by avoiding the need for extensive or repeated treatment. Increased treatment responses may in turn prevent recurrence of skin cancers, reducing the burden of this disease on society. Currently existing pharmacogenomic tests, such as those that assess variation in the metabolism of the anticancer drug fluorouracil, have the potential to reduce the toxic effects of anti-tumor drugs used in the treatment of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) by determining individualized appropriate dosage. If the savings generated by reducing adverse events negate the costs of developing these tests, pharmacogenomic testing may increasingly inform personalized NMSC treatment.

Quality of life, fatigue and activity in Australians with chronic kidney disease : a longitudinal study

Aims and objectives This study sought to determine the relationship between health related quality of life (HRQoL), fatigue and activity levels of people with anaemia secondary to chronic kidney disease (CKD) over a 12 month period following the introduction of an erythropoietin stimulating agent (ESA). Background CKD occurs in five stages and it is a complex chronic illness which severely impacts on an individual’s HRQoL, and ability to perform everyday activities. Fatigue is also a common symptom experienced by people with CKD. Design and methods Using a longitudinal repeated measures design, 28 people with CKD completed the SF-36, human activity profile and fatigue severity scale at the commencement of an ESA and then at 3, 6 and 12 months. Results Over a 12 month period, people reported a significant change in HRQoL in relation to role physical, vitality, mental health/emotional well-being and overall mental health. However activity levels did not significantly improve during that time. Both the amount of breathlessness and level of fatigue were highest at baseline and declined over time. Both fatigue and breathlessness were correlated with less reported general health over time. Conclusion Renal nurses, in dialysis units and CKD outpatient clinics, have repeated and frequent contact with people with CKD over long periods of time, and are in an ideal position to routinely assess fatigue and activity levels and to institute timely interventions. Early detection would enable timely nursing interventions to optimise HRQoL and independent activity. Relevance to Clinical Practice Drawing on rehabilitation nursing interventions could assist renal nurses to minimize the burden of fatigue and its impact on simple everyday activities and a person’s quality of life. These interventions are important for people who are living at home and could assist in lowering the burden on home support services.

Chronic kidney disease in Saudi Arabia : a nursing perspective

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health problem in Saudi Arabia. The number of people requiring kidney replacement therapy in Saudi Arabia is growing, which poses challenges for health professionals and increases the burden on the health care system. However, there is a paucity of nursing literature about CKD in the Middle Eastern region, including Saudi Arabia. The purpose of this review is to describe the epidemiology, risk factors, treatment modalities and the implications for nursing practice of CKD in Saudi Arabia. Improving nurses’ knowledge and awareness about CKD and the risk factors in Saudi Arabia will help them to determine high risk groups and provide early management to delay progression of the disease.

Postnatal depression in Central Vietnam

Postnatal depression (PND) is a significant global health issue, which not only impacts maternal wellbeing, but also infant development and family structures. Mental health disorders represent approximately 14% of global burden of disease and disability, including low and middle-income countries (LMIC), and PND has direct relevance to the Millennium Development Goals of reducing child mortality, improving maternal health, and creating global partnerships (United Nations, 2012; Guiseppe, Becker & Farmer, 2011). Emerging evidence suggests that PND in LMIC is similar to, or higher than in high-income countries (HIC), however, less than 10% of LMIC have prevalence data available (Fisher, Cabral de Mello, & Izutsu 2009; Lund et al., 2011). Whilst a small number of studies on maternal mental disorders have been published in Vietnam, only one specifically focuses on PND in a hospital-based sample. Also, community based mental health studies and information on mental health in rural areas of Vietnam is still scarce. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of PND, and its associated social determinants in postnatal women in Thua Thien Hue Province, Central Vietnam. In order to identify social determinants relevant to the Central Vietnamese context, two qualitative studies and one community survey were undertaken. Associations between maternal mental health and infant health outcomes were also explored. The study was comprised of three phases. Firstly, iterative, qualitative interviews with Vietnamese health professionals (n = 17) and postpartum women (n = 15) were conducted and analysed using Kleinman's theory of explanatory models to identify narratives surrounding PND in the Vietnamese context (Kleinman, 1978). Secondly, a participatory concept mapping exercise was undertaken with two groups of health professionals (n = 12) to explore perceived risk and protective factors for postnatal mental health. Qualitative phases of the research elucidated narratives surrounding maternal mental health in the Vietnamese context such as son preference, use of traditional medicines, and the popularity of confinement practices such as having one to three months of complete rest. The qualitative research also revealed the construct of depression was not widely recognised. Rather, postpartum changes in mood were conceptualised as a loss of 'vital strength' following childbirth or 'disappointment'. Most women managed postpartum changes in mood within the family although some sought help from traditional medicine practitioners or biomedical doctors. Thirdly, a cross-sectional study of twelve randomly selected communes (six urban, six rural) in Thua Thien Hue Province was then conducted. Overall, 465 women with infants between 4 weeks and six months old participated, and 431 questionnaires were analysed. Women from urban (n = 216) and rural (n = 215) areas participated. All eligible women completed a structured interview about their health, basic demographics, and social circumstances. Maternal depression was measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) as a continuous variable. Multivariate generalised linear regression was conducted using PASW Statistics version 18.0 (2009). When using the conventional EPDS threshold for probable depression (EPDS score ~ 13) 18.1% (n = 78) of women were depressed (Gibson, McKenzie-McHarg, Shakespeare, Price & Gray, 2009). Interestingly, 20.4% of urban women (n = 44) had EPDS scores~ 13, which was a higher proportion than rural women, where 15.8% (n = 34) had EPDS scores ~ 13, although this difference was not statistically significant: t(429) = -0.689, p = 0.491. Whilst qualitative narratives identified infant gender and family composition, and traditional confinement practices as relevant to postnatal mood, these were not statistically significant in multivariate analysis. Rather, poverty, food security, being frightened of your husband or family members, experiences of intimate partner violence and breastfeeding difficulties had strong statistical associations. PND was also associated with having an infant with diarrhoea in the past two weeks, but not infant malnutrition or acute respiratory infections. This study is the first to explore maternal mental health in Central Vietnam, and provides further evidence that PND is a universally experienced phenomenon. The independent social risk factors of depressive symptoms identified such as poverty, food insecurity, experiences of violence and powerlessness, and relationship adversity points to women in a context of social suffering which is relevant throughout the world (Kleinman, Das & Lock, 1997). The culturally specific risk factors explored such as infant gender were not statistically significant when included in a multivariable model. However, they feature prominently in qualitative narratives surrounding PND in Vietnam, both in this study and previous literature. It appears that whilst infant gender may not be associated with PND per se, the reactions of close relatives to the gender of the baby can adversely affect maternal wellbeing. This study used a community based participatory research approach (CBPR) (Israel.2005). This approach encourages the knowledge produced to be used for public health interventions and workforce training in the community in which the research was conducted, and such work has commenced. These results suggest that packages of interventions for LMIC devised to address maternal mental health and infant wellbeing could be applied in Central Vietnam. Such interventions could include training lay workers to follow up postpartum women, and incorporating mental health screening and referral into primary maternal and child health care (Pate! et al., 2011; Rahman, Malik, Sikander & Roberts, 2008). Addressing the underlying social determinants of PND through poverty reduction and violence elimination programs is also recommended.

Complex cognitive interactions in a badly designed world : Investigating the underlying causes of collisions between distinct road users

Collisions between distinct road users (e.g. drivers and riders, drivers and cyclists) make a substantial contribution to the road trauma burden. Although evidence suggests different road users interpret the same road situations contrarily, it is not clear how their situation awareness differs, nor is it clear which differences might lead to conflicts. This article presents the findings from an on-road study which was conducted to examine driver, cyclist and motorcyclist situation awareness in different road environments. The findings suggest that drivers, motorcyclists, and cyclists develop markedly different situational understandings even when operating in the same road environments. Examination of these differences indicate that they are likely to be compatible along arterial roads, shopping strips and at roundabouts, but that they may create conflicts between the different road users at intersections. The key role of road design in supporting compatible situation awareness and behaviour across different road users is discussed.

Voluntary bankruptcy

"Voluntary bankruptcy occurs where a debtor commences the process of bankruptcy against himself or herself. One of the policies underlying the modern law of bankruptcy is that a person in a hopeless financial position should be given an opportunity to start again without the burden of previous debts.1 This has long been recognised by the courts; for example as Kennedy J. stated in relation to the position in the UK..."

Changes to airborne pollen counts across Europe

A progressive global increase in the burden of allergic diseases has affected the industrialized world over the last half century and has been reported in the literature. The clinical evidence reveals a general increase in both incidence and prevalence of respiratory diseases, such as allergic rhinitis (common hay fever) and asthma. Such phenomena may be related not only to air pollution and changes in lifestyle, but also to an actual increase in airborne quantities of allergenic pollen. Experimental enhancements of carbon dioxide (CO) have demonstrated changes in pollen amount and allergenicity, but this has rarely been shown in the wider environment. The present analysis of a continental-scale pollen data set reveals an increasing trend in the yearly amount of airborne pollen for many taxa in Europe, which is more pronounced in urban than semi-rural/rural areas. Climate change may contribute to these changes, however increased temperatures do not appear to be a major influencing factor. Instead, we suggest the anthropogenic rise of atmospheric CO levels may be influential.

The life course of Australian researchers : experiences of applying for research funding

The life course of Australian researchers includes regular funding applications, which incur large personal and time costs. We previously estimated that Australian researchers spent 550 years preparing 3,727 proposals for the 2012 NHMRC Project Grant funding round, at an estimated annual salary cost of AU$66 million. Despite the worldwide importance of funding rounds, there is little evidence on what researchers think of the application process. We conducted a web-based survey of Australian researchers (May–July 2013) asking about their experience with NHMRC Project Grants. Almost all researchers (n=224 at 31 May) supported changes to the application (96%) and peer-review (88%) processes; 73% supported the introduction of shorter initial Expressions of Interest; and half (50%) provided extensive comments on the NHMRC processes. Researchers agreed preparing their proposals always took top priority over other work (97%) and personal (87%) commitments. More than half (57%) provided extensive comments on the ongoing personal impact of concurrent grant-writing and holiday seasons on family, children and other relationships. Researchers with experience on Grant Review Panels (34%) or as External Reviewers (78%) reported many sections of the proposals were rarely or never read, which suggests these sections could be cut with no impact on the quality of peer review. Our findings provide evidence on the experience of Australian researchers as applicants. The process of preparing, submitting and reviewing proposals could be streamlined to minimise the burden on applicants and peer reviewers, giving Australian researchers more time to work on actual research and be with their families.

The effects of hot and cold temperatures on emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia

As Earth's climate is rapidly changing, the impact of ambient temperature on health outcomes has attracted increasing attention in the recent time. Considerable number of excess deaths has been reported because of exposure to ambient hot and cold temperatures. However, relatively little research has been conducted on the relation between temperature and morbidity. The aim of this study was to characterize the relationship between both hot and cold temperatures and emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane, Australia, and to examine whether the relation varied by age and socioeconomic factors. It aimed to explore lag structures of temperature–morbidity association for respiratory causes, and to estimate the magnitude of emergency hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases attributable to hot and cold temperatures for the large contribution of both diseases to the total emergency hospital admissions. A time series study design was applied using routinely collected data of daily emergency hospital admissions, weather and air pollution variables in Brisbane during 1996–2005. Poisson regression model with a distributed lag non-linear structure was adopted to assess the impact of temperature on emergency hospital admissions after adjustment for confounding factors. Both hot and cold effects were found, with higher risk of hot temperatures than that of cold temperatures. Increases in mean temperature above 24.2oC were associated with increased morbidity, especially for the elderly ≥ 75 years old with the largest effect. The magnitude of the risk estimates of hot temperature varied by age and socioeconomic factors. High population density, low household income, and unemployment appeared to modify the temperature–morbidity relation. There were different lag structures for hot and cold temperatures, with the acute hot effect within 3 days after hot exposure and about 2-week lagged cold effect on respiratory diseases. A strong harvesting effect after 3 days was evident for respiratory diseases. People suffering from cardiovascular diseases were found to be more vulnerable to hot temperatures than cold temperatures. However, more patients admitted for cardiovascular diseases were attributable to cold temperatures in Brisbane compared with hot temperatures. This study contributes to the knowledge base about the association between temperature and morbidity. It is vitally important in the context of ongoing climate change. The findings of this study may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policy and strategic initiatives designed to reduce and prevent the burden of disease due to the impact of climate change.

The role of immunoglobulins and their transporters in urogenital Chlamydial infections

Chlamydia trachomatis infections of the male and female reproductive tracts are the world's leading sexually transmitted bacterial disease, and can lead to damaging pathology, scarring and infertility. The resolution of chlamydial infection requires the development of adaptive immune responses to infection, and includes cell-mediated and humoral immunity. Whilst cluster of differentiation (CD)4+ T cells are known to be essential in clearance of infection [1], they are also associated with immune cell infiltration, autoimmunity and infertility in the testes [2-3]. Conversely, antibodies are less associated with inflammation, are readily transported into the reproductive tracts, and can offer lumenal neutralization of chlamydiae prior to infection. Antibodies, or immunoglobulins (Ig), play a supportive role in the resolution of chlamydial infections, and this thesis sought to define the function of IgA and IgG, against a variety of chlamydial antigens expressed during the intracellular and extracellular stages of the chlamydial developmental cycle. Transport of IgA and IgG into the mucosal lumen is facilitated by receptor-mediated transcytosis yet the expression profile (under normal conditions and during urogenital chlamydial infection) of the polymeric immunoglobulin receptor (pIgR) and the neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) remains unknown. The expression profile of pIgR and FcRn in the murine male reproductive tract was found to be polarized to the lower and upper reproductive tract tissues respectively. This demonstrates that the two receptors have a tissue tropism, which must be considered when targeting pathogens that colonize different sites. In contrast, the expression of pIgR and FcRn in the female mouse was found to be distributed in both the upper and lower reproductive tracts. When urogenitally infected with Chlamydia muridarum, both male and female reproductive tracts up-regulated expression of pIgR and down-regulated expression of FcRn. Unsurprisingly, the up-regulation of pIgR increased the concentration of IgA in the lumen. However, down-regulation of FcRn, prevented IgG uptake and led to an increase or pooling of IgG in lumenal secretions. As previous studies have identified the importance of pIgR-mediated delivery of IgA, as well as the potential of IgA to bind and neutralize intracellular pathogens, IgA against a variety of chlamydial antigens was investigated. The protection afforded by IgA against the extracellular antigen major outer membrane protein (MOMP), was found to be dependent on pIgR expression in vitro and in vivo. It was also found that in the absence of pIgR, no protection was afforded to mice previously immunized with MOMP. The protection afforded from polyclonal IgA against the intracellular chlamydial antigens; inclusion membrane protein A (IncA), inclusion membrane proteins (IncMem) and secreted chlamydial protease-like activity factor (CPAF) were produced and investigated in vitro. Antigen-specific intracellular IgA was found to bind to the respective antigen within the infected cell, but did not significantly reduce inclusion formation (p > 0.05). This suggests that whilst IgA specific for the selected antigens was transported by pIgR to the chlamydial inclusion, it was unable to prevent growth. Similarly, immunization of male mice with intracellular chlamydial antigens (IncA or IncMem), followed by depletion CD4+ T cells, and subsequent urogenital C. muridarum challenge, provided minimal pIgR-mediated protection. Wild type male mice immunized with IncA showed a 57 % reduction (p < 0.05), and mice deficient in pIgR showed a 35 % reduction (p < 0.05) in reproductive tract chlamydial burden compared to control antigen, and in the absence of CD4+ T cells. This suggests that pIgR and secretory IgA (SIgA) were playing a protective role (21 % pIgR-mediated) in unison with another antigen-specific immune mechanism (36 %). Interestingly, IgA generated during a primary respiratory C. muridarum infection did not provide a significant amount of protection to secondary urogenital C. muridarum challenge. Together, these data suggest that IgA specific for an extracellular antigen (MOMP) can play a strong protective role in chlamydial infections, and that IgA targeting intracellular antigens is also effective but dependent on pIgR expression in tissues. However, whilst not investigated here, IgA targeting and blocking other intracellular chlamydial antigens, that are more essential for replication or type III secretion, may be more efficacious in subunit vaccines. Recently, studies have demonstrated that IgG can neutralize influenza virus by trafficking IgG-bound virus to lysosomes [4]. We sought to determine if this process could also traffic chlamydial antigens for degradation by lysosomes, despite Chlamydia spp. actively inhibiting fusion with the host endocytic pathway. As observed in pIgR-mediated delivery of anti-IncA IgA, FcRn similarly transported IgG specific for IncA which bound the inclusion membrane. Interestingly, FcRn-mediated delivery of anti-IncA IgG significantly decreased inclusion formation by 36 % (p < 0.01), and induced aberrant inclusion morphology. This suggests that unlike IgA, IgG can facilitate additional host cellular responses which affect the intracellular niche of chlamydial growth. Fluorescence microscopy revealed that IgG also bound the inclusion, but unlike influenza studies, did not induce the recruitment of lysosomes. Notably, anti-IncA IgG recruited sequestosomes to the inclusion membrane, markers of the ubiquitin/proteasome pathway and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I loading. To determine if the protection against C. muridarum infection afforded by IncA IgG in vitro translated in vivo, wild type mice and mice deficient in functional FcRn and MHC-I, were immunized, depleted of CD4+, and urogenitally infected with C. muridarum. Unlike in pIgR-deficient mice, the protection afforded from IncA immunization was completely abrogated in mice lacking functional FcRn and MHC-I/CD8+. Thus, both anti-IncA IgA and IgG can bind the inclusion in a pIgR and FcRn-mediated manner, respectively. However, only IgG mediates a higher reduction in chlamydial infection in vitro and in vivo suggesting more than steric blocking of IncA had occurred. Unlike anti-MOMP IgA, which reduced chlamydial infection of epithelial cells and male mouse tissues, IgG was found to enhance infectivity in vitro, and in vivo. Opsonization of EBs with MOMP-IgG enhanced inclusion formation of epithelial cells in a MOMP-IgG dose-dependent and FcRn-dependent manner. When MOMP-IgG opsonized EBs were inoculated into the vagina of female mice, a small but non-significant (p > 0.05) enhancement of cervicovaginal C. muridarum shedding was observed three days post infection in mice with functional FcRn. Interestingly, infection with opsonized EBs reduced the intensity of the peak of infection (day six) but protracted the duration of infection by 60 % in wild type mice only. Infection with EBs opsonized in IgG also significantly increased (p < 0.05) hydrosalpinx formation in the oviducts and induced lymphocyte infiltration uterine horns. As MOMP is an immunodominant antigen, and is widely used in vaccines, the ability of IgG specific to extracellular chlamydial antigens to enhance infection and induce pathology needs to be considered. Together, these data suggest that immunoglobulins play a dichotomous role in chlamydial infections, and are dependent on antigen specificity, FcRn and pIgR expression. FcRn was found to be highly expressed in upper male reproductive tract, whilst pIgR was dominantly expressed in the lower reproductive tract. Conversely, female mice expressed FcRn and pIgR in both the lower and upper reproductive tracts. In response to a normal chlamydial infection, pIgR is up-regulated increasing secretory IgA release, but FcRn is down-regulated preventing IgG uptake. Similarly to other studies [5-6], we demonstrate that IgA and IgG generated during primary chlamydial infections plays a minor role in recall immunity, and that antigen-specific subunit vaccines can offer more protection. We also show that both IgA and IgG can be used to target intracellular chlamydial antigens, but that IgG is more effective. Finally, IgA against the extracellular antigen MOMP can afford protection, whist IgG plays a deleterious role by increasing infectivity and inducing damaging immunopathology. Further investigations with additional antigens or combination subunit vaccines will enhance our understanding the protection afforded by antibodies against intracellular and extracellular pathogenic antigens, and help improve the development of an efficacious chlamydial vaccine.

Awesome foursome? The compatibility of situation awareness across drivers, riders, cyclists, and pedestrians

Collisions between distinct road users (e.g. drivers and motorcyclists) make a substantial contribution to the road trauma burden. Although evidence suggests distinct road users interpret the same road situations differently, it is not clear how road users’ situation awareness differs, nor is it clear which differences might lead to conflicts. This article presents the findings from an on-road study which examined driver, cyclist, motorcyclist and pedestrian situation awareness at intersections. The findings suggest that situation awareness at intersection is markedly different across the four road user groups studied, and that some of these differences may create conflicts between the different road users. The findings also suggest that the causes of the differences identified relate to road design and road user experience. In closing, the key role of road design and training in supporting safe interactions between distinct road users is discussed.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Food and Brisbane households : dietary, social and health consequences of food insecurity

Background & Aims: Access to sufficient amounts of safe and culturally-acceptable foods is a fundamental human right. Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Food insecurity therefore occurs when the availability or access to sufficient amounts of nutritionally-adequate, culturally-appropriate and safe foods, or, the ability to acquire such foods in socially-acceptable ways, is limited. Food insecurity may result in significant adverse effects for the individual and these outcomes may vary between adults and children. Among adults, food insecurity may be associated with overweight or obesity, poorer self-rated general health, depression, increased health-care utilisation and dietary intakes less consistent with national recommendations. Among children, food insecurity may result in poorer self or parent-reported general health, behavioural problems, lower levels of academic achievement and poor social outcomes. The majority of research investigating the potential correlates of food insecurity has been undertaken in the United States (US), where regular national screening for food insecurity is undertaken using a comprehensive multi-item measurement. In Australia, screening for food insecurity takes place on a three yearly basis via the use of a crude, single-item included in the National Health Survey (NHS). This measure has been shown to underestimate the prevalence of food insecurity by 5%. From 1995 – 2004, the prevalence of food insecurity among the Australian population remained stable at 5%. Due to the perceived low prevalence of this issue, screening for food insecurity was not undertaken in the most recent NHS. Furthermore, there are few Australian studies investigating the potential determinants of food insecurity and none investigating potential outcomes among adults and children. This study aimed to examine these issues by a) investigating the prevalence of food insecurity among households residing in disadvantaged urban areas and comparing prevalence rates estimated by the more comprehensive 18-item and 6-item United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Food Security Survey Module (FSSM) to those estimated by the current single-item measure used for surveillance in Australia and b) investigating the potential determinants and outcomes of food insecurity, Methods: A comprehensive literature review was undertaken to investigate the potential determinants and consequences of food insecurity among developed countries. This was followed by a cross-sectional study in which 1000 households from the most disadvantaged 5% of Brisbane areas were sampled and data collected via mail-based survey (final response rate = 53%, n = 505). Data were collected for food security status, sociodemographic characteristics (household income, education, age, gender, employment status, housing tenure and living arrangements), fruit and vegetable intakes, meat and take-away consumption, presence of depressive symptoms, presence of chronic disease and body mass index (BMI) among adults. Among children, data pertaining to BMI, parent-reported general health, days away from school and activities and behavioural problems were collected. Rasch analysis was used to investigate the psychometric properties of the 18-, 10- and 6-item adaptations of the USDA-FSSM, and McNemar's test was used to investigate the difference in the prevalence of food insecurity as measured by these three adaptations compared to the current single-item measure used in Australia. Chi square and logistic regression were used to investigate the differences in dietary and health outcomes among adults and health and behavioural outcomes among children. Results were adjusted for equivalised household income and, where necessary, for indigenous status, education and family type. Results: Overall, 25% of households in these urbanised-disadvantaged areas reported experiencing food insecurity; this increased to 34% when only households with children were analysed. The current reliance on a single-item measure to screen for food insecurity may underestimate the true burden among the Australian population, as this measure was shown to significantly underestimate the prevalence of food insecurity by five percentage points. Internationally, major potential determinants of food insecurity included poverty and indicators of poverty, such as low-income, unemployment and lower levels of education. Ethnicity, age, transportation and cooking and financial skills were also found to be potential determinants of food insecurity. Among Australian adults in disadvantaged urban areas, food insecurity was associated with a three-fold increase in experiencing poorer self-rated general health and a two-to-five-fold increase in the risk of depression. Furthermore, adults from food insecure households were twoto- three times more likely to have seen a general practitioner and/or been admitted to hospital within the previous six months, compared to their food secure counterparts. Weight status and intakes of fruits, vegetables and meat were not associated with food insecurity. Among Australian households with children, those in the lowest tertile were over 16 times more likely to experience food insecurity compared to those in the highest tertile for income. After adjustment for equivalised household income, children from food insecure households were three times more likely to have missed days away from school or other activities. Furthermore, children from food insecure households displayed a two-fold increase in atypical emotions and behavioural difficulties. Conclusions: Food insecurity is an important public health issue and may contribute to the burden on the health care system through its associations with depression and increased health care utilisation among adults and behavioural and emotional problems among children. Current efforts to monitor food insecurity in Australia do not occur frequently and use a tool that may underestimate the prevalence of food insecurity. Efforts should be made to improve the regularity of screening for food insecurity via the use of a more accurate screening measure. Most of the current strategies that aim to alleviate food insecurity do not sufficiently address the issue of insufficient financial resources for acquiring food; a factor which is an important determinant of food insecurity. Programs to address this issue should be developed in collaboration with groups at higher risk of developing food insecurity and should incorporate strategies to address the issue of low income as a barrier to food acquisition.

Validity of dietary questionnaires in Sri Lankan adults and the association of dietary intake with obesity

Traditionally, infectious diseases and under-nutrition have been considered major health problems in Sri Lanka with little attention paid to obesity and associated non-communicable diseases (NCDs). However, the recent Sri Lanka Diabetes and Cardiovascular Study (SLDCS) reported the epidemic level of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Moreover, obesity-associated NCDs is the leading cause of death in Sri Lanka and there is an exponential increase in hospitalization due to NCDs adversely affecting the development of the country. Despite Sri Lanka having a very high prevalence of NCDs and associated mortality, little is known about the causative factors for this burden. It is widely believed that the global NCD epidemic is associated with recent lifestyle changes, especially dietary factors. In the absence of sufficient data on dietary habits in Sri Lanka, successful interventions to manage these serious health issues would not be possible. In view of the current situation the dietary survey was undertaken to assess the intakes of energy, macro-nutrients and selected other nutrients with respect to socio demographic characteristics and the nutritional status of Sri Lankan adults especially focusing on obesity. Another aim of this study was to develop and validate a culturally specific food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to assess dietary risk factors of NCDs in Sri Lankan adults. Data were collected from a subset of the national SLDCS using a multi-stage, stratified, random sampling procedure (n=500). However, data collection in the SLDCS was affected by the prevailing civil war which resulted in no data being collected from Northern and Eastern provinces. To obtain a nationally representative sample, additional subjects (n=100) were later recruited from the two provinces using similar selection criteria. Ethical Approval for this study was obtained from the Ethical Review Committee, Faculty of Medicine, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka and informed consent was obtained from the subjects before data were collected. Dietary data were obtained using the 24-h Dietary Recall (24HDR) method. Subjects were asked to recall all foods and beverages, consumed over the previous 24-hour period. Respondents were probed for the types of foods and food preparation methods. For the FFQ validation study, a 7-day weight diet record (7-d WDR) was used as the reference method. All foods recorded in the 24 HDR were converted into grams and then intake of energy and nutrients were analysed using NutriSurvey 2007 (EBISpro, Germany) which was modified for Sri Lankan food recipes. Socio-demographic details and body weight perception were collected from interviewer-administrated questionnaire. BMI was calculated and overweight (BMI ≥23 kg.m-2), obesity (BMI ≥25 kg.m-2) and abdominal obesity (Men: WC ≥ 90 cm; Women: WC ≥ 80 cm) were categorized according to Asia-pacific anthropometric cut-offs. The SPSS v. 16 for Windows and Minitab v10 were used for statistical analysis purposes. From a total of 600 eligible subjects, 491 (81.8%) participated of whom 34.5% (n=169) were males. Subjects were well distributed among different socio-economic parameters. A total of 312 different food items were recorded and nutritionists grouped similar food items which resulted in a total of 178 items. After performing step-wise multiple regression, 93 foods explained 90% of the variance for total energy intake, carbohydrates, protein, total fat and dietary fibre. Finally, 90 food items and 12 photographs were selected. Seventy-seven subjects completed (response rate = 65%) the FFQ and 7-day WDR. Estimated mean energy intake (SD) from FFQ (1794±398 kcal) and 7DWR (1698±333 kcal, P<0.001) was significantly different due to a significant overestimation of carbohydrate (~10 g/d, P<0.001) and to some extent fat (~5 g/d, NS). Significant positive correlations were found between the FFQ and 7DWR for energy (r = 0.39), carbohydrate (r = 0.47), protein (r = 0.26), fat (r =0.17) and dietary fiber (r = 0.32). Bland-Altman graphs indicated fairly good agreement between methods with no relationship between bias and average intake of each nutrient examined. The findings from the nutrition survey showed on average, Sri Lankan adults consumed over 14 portions of starch/d; moreover, males consumed 5 more portions of cereal than females. Sri Lankan adults consumed on average 3.56 portions of added sugars/d. Moreover, mean daily intake of fruit (0.43) and vegetable (1.73) portions was well below minimum dietary recommendations (fruits 2 portions/d; vegetables 3 portions/d). The total fruit and vegetable intake was 2.16 portions/d. Daily consumption of meat or alternatives was 1.75 portions and the sum of meat and pulses was 2.78 portions/d. Starchy foods were consumed by all participants and over 88% met the minimum daily recommendations. Importantly, nearly 70% of adults exceeded the maximum daily recommendation for starch (11portions/d) and a considerable proportion consumed larger numbers of starch servings daily, particularly men. More than 12% of men consumed over 25 starch servings/d. In contrast to their starch consumption, participants reported very low intakes of other food groups. Only 11.6%, 2.1% and 3.5% of adults consumed the minimum daily recommended servings of vegetables, fruits, and fruits and vegetables combined, respectively. Six out of ten adult Sri Lankans sampled did not consume any fruits. Milk and dairy consumption was extremely low; over a third of the population did not consume any dairy products and less than 1% of adults consumed 2 portions of dairy/d. A quarter of Sri Lankans did not report consumption of meat and pulses. Regarding protein consumption, 36.2% attained the minimum Sri Lankan recommendation for protein; and significantly more men than women achieved the recommendation of ≥3 servings of meat or alternatives daily (men 42.6%, women 32.8%; P<0.05). Over 70% of energy was derived from carbohydrates (Male:72.8±6.4%, Female:73.9±6.7%), followed by fat (Male:19.9±6.1%, Female:18.5±5.7%) and proteins (Male:10.6±2.1%, Female:10.9±5.6%). The average intake of dietary fiber was 21.3 g/day and 16.3 g/day for males and females, respectively. There was a significant difference in nutritional intake related to ethnicities, areas of residence, education levels and BMI categories. Similarly, dietary diversity was significantly associated with several socio-economic parameters among Sri Lankan adults. Adults with BMI ≥25 kg.m-2 and abdominally obese Sri Lankan adults had the highest diet diversity values. Age-adjusted prevalence (95% confidence interval) of overweight, obesity, and abdominal obesity among Sri Lankan adults were 17.1% (13.8-20.7), 28.8% (24.8-33.1), and 30.8% (26.8-35.2), respectively. Men, compared with women, were less overweight, 14.2% (9.4-20.5) versus 18.5% (14.4-23.3), P = 0.03, less obese, 21.0% (14.9-27.7) versus 32.7% (27.6-38.2), P < .05; and less abdominally obese, 11.9% (7.4-17.8) versus 40.6% (35.1-46.2), P < .05. Although, prevalence of obesity has reached to epidemic level body weight misperception was common among Sri Lankan adults. Two-thirds of overweight males and 44.7% of females considered themselves as in "about right weight". Over one third of both male and female obese subjects perceived themselves as "about right weight" or "underweight". Nearly 32% of centrally obese men and women perceived that their waist circumference is about right. People who perceived overweight or very overweight (n = 154) only 63.6% tried to lose their body weight (n = 98), and quarter of adults seek advices from professionals (n = 39). A number of important conclusions can be drawn from this research project. Firstly, the newly developed FFQ is an acceptable tool for assessing the nutrient intake of Sri Lankans and will assist proper categorization of individuals by dietary exposure. Secondly, a substantial proportion of the Sri Lankan population does not consume a varied and balanced diet, which is suggestive of a close association between the nutrition-related NCDs in the country and unhealthy eating habits. Moreover, dietary diversity is positively associated with several socio-demographic characteristics and obesity among Sri Lankan adults. Lastly, although obesity is a major health issue among Sri Lankan adults, body weight misperception was common among underweight, healthy weight, overweight, and obese adults in Sri Lanka. Over 2/3 of overweight and 1/3 of obese Sri Lankan adults believe that they are in "right weight" or "under-weight" categories.