Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios

Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological–economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (1) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social–ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways.

Experimental and Modelling Studies of the Thermodynamics and Kinetics of Phase and Structural Transformations in a Gamma TiAl-based Alloy

This work combines microscopy, synchrotron radiation X-ray diffraction, differential scanning calorimetry and thermodynamic calculations in the characterisation of phase transformation behaviour of a Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy upon continuous heating at constant rates. It has been found that the Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy after being forged at 1200 °C without further treatment has a duplex microstructure consisting of fine equiaxed and lamellar ? grains with a small amount of a2 plates and particles and about 1 wt.% B2 phase. Differential scanning calorimetry revealed reproducibly several thermal effects upon heating of the as-forged alloy. These thermal effects are related to the equilibration and homogenisation of the sample, change of phase ratios between a2, ? and B2 phases in particular the increase of B2 in respect to a2 and ?, and the following five phase transformations: a2 + ? + B2 a + ? + B2, a + ? + B2 a + ?, ? + a a, a a + ß, a + ß a + ß + L. The observation of these transformations by differential scanning calorimetry is largely in agreement with literature phase diagrams and thermodynamic calculations, though care is needed to consider the different alloy compositions. Kinetics of the ? + a a phase transformation in the Ti–46Al–1.9Cr–3Nb alloy has been quantitatively derived from the calorimetry data, giving phase compositions at any point during the transformation upon continuous heating.

The Agent-Rule-Class Framework for Multi-Agent Systems

Multi-agent systems have become increasingly mature, but their appearance does not make the traditional OO approach obsolete. On the contrary, OO methodologies can benefit from the principles and tools designed for agent systems. The Agent-Rule-Class (ARC) framework is proposed as an approach that builds agents upon traditional OO system components and makes use of business rules to dictate agent behaviour with the aid of OO components. By modelling agent knowledge in business rules, the proposed paradigm provides a straightforward means to develop agent-oriented systems based on the existing object-oriented systems and offers features that are otherwise difficult to achieve in the original OO systems. The main outcome of using ARC is the achievement of adaptivity. The framework is supported by a tool that ensures agents implement up-to-date requirements from business people, reflecting desired current behaviour, without the need for frequent system rebuilds. ARC is illustrated with a rail track example.

Revised age estimate of the Mjauvotn tephra A on the Faroe Islands based on Bayesian modelling of C-14 dates from two lake sequences

Tephra horizons are potentially perfect time markers for dating and cross-correlation among diverse Holocene palaeoenvironmental records such as ice cores and marine and terrestrial sequences, but we need to trust their age. Here we present a new age estimate of the Holocene Mjauvotn tephra A using accelerator mass spectrometry C-14 dates from two lakes on the Faroe Islands. With Bayesian age modelling it is dated to 6668-6533 cal. a BP (68.2% confidence interval) - significantly older and better constrained than the previous age. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.