Using a Prediction and Option Generation Paradigm to Understand Decision Making

In many complex and dynamic domains, the ability to generate and then select the appropriate course of action is based on the decision maker's "reading" of the situation--in other words, their ability to assess the situation and predict how it will evolve over the next few seconds. Current theories regarding option generation during the situation assessment and response phases of decision making offer contrasting views on the cognitive mechanisms that support superior performance. The Recognition-Primed Decision-making model (RPD; Klein, 1989) and Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003) suggest that superior decisions are made by generating few options, and then selecting the first option as the final one. Long-Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; Ericsson & Kintsch, 1995), on the other hand, posits that skilled decision makers construct rich, detailed situation models, and that as a result, skilled performers should have the ability to generate more of the available task-relevant options. The main goal of this dissertation was to use these theories about option generation as a way to further the understanding of how police officers anticipate a perpetrator's actions, and make decisions about how to respond, during dynamic law enforcement situations. An additional goal was to gather information that can be used, in the future, to design training based on the anticipation skills, decision strategies, and processes of experienced officers. Two studies were conducted to achieve these goals. Study 1 identified video-based law enforcement scenarios that could be used to discriminate between experienced and less-experienced police officers, in terms of their ability to anticipate the outcome. The discriminating scenarios were used as the stimuli in Study 2; 23 experienced and 26 less-experienced police officers observed temporally-occluded versions of the scenarios, and then completed assessment and response option-generation tasks. The results provided mixed support for the nature of option generation in these situations. Consistent with RPD and TTF, participants typically selected the first-generated option as their final one, and did so during both the assessment and response phases of decision making. Consistent with LTWM theory, participants--regardless of experience level--generated more task-relevant assessment options than task-irrelevant options. However, an expected interaction between experience level and option-relevance was not observed. Collectively, the two studies provide a deeper understanding of how police officers make decisions in dynamic situations. The methods developed and employed in the studies can be used to investigate anticipation and decision making in other critical domains (e.g., nursing, military). The results are discussed in relation to how they can inform future studies of option-generation performance, and how they could be applied to develop training for law enforcement officers.

THE USE OF LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSIS TO REDUCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF MATERIALS IN MANUFACTURING

This thesis is composed of three life-cycle analysis (LCA) studies of manufacturing to determine cumulative energy demand (CED) and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). The methods proposed could reduce the environmental impact by reducing the CED in three manufacturing processes. First, industrial symbiosis is proposed and a LCA is performed on both conventional 1 GW-scaled hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H)-based single junction and a-Si:H/microcrystalline-Si:H tandem cell solar PV manufacturing plants and such plants coupled to silane recycling plants. Using a recycling process that results in a silane loss of only 17 versus 85 percent, this results in a CED savings of 81,700 GJ and 290,000 GJ per year for single and tandem junction plants, respectively. This recycling process reduces the cost of raw silane by 68 percent, or approximately $22.6 and $79 million per year for a single and tandem 1 GW PV production facility, respectively. The results show environmental benefits of silane recycling centered around a-Si:H-based PV manufacturing plants. Second, an open-source self-replicating rapid prototype or 3-D printer, the RepRap, has the potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing of polymer-based products, using distributed manufacturing paradigm, which is further minimized by the use of PV and improvements in PV manufacturing. Using 3-D printers for manufacturing provides the ability to ultra-customize products and to change fill composition, which increases material efficiency. An LCA was performed on three polymer-based products to determine the CED and GHG from conventional large-scale production and are compared to experimental measurements on a RepRap producing identical products with ABS and PLA. The results of this LCA study indicate that the CED of manufacturing polymer products can possibly be reduced using distributed manufacturing with existing 3-D printers under 89% fill and reduced even further with a solar photovoltaic system. The results indicate that the ability of RepRaps to vary fill has the potential to diminish environmental impact on many products. Third, one additional way to improve the environmental performance of this distributed manufacturing system is to create the polymer filament feedstock for 3-D printers using post-consumer plastic bottles. An LCA was performed on the recycling of high density polyethylene (HDPE) using the RecycleBot. The results of the LCA showed that distributed recycling has a lower CED than the best-case scenario used for centralized recycling. If this process is applied to the HDPE currently recycled in the U.S., more than 100 million MJ of energy could be conserved per annum along with significant reductions in GHG. This presents a novel path to a future of distributed manufacturing suited for both the developed and developing world with reduced environmental impact. From improving manufacturing in the photovoltaic industry with the use of recycling to recycling and manufacturing plastic products within our own homes, each step reduces the impact on the environment. The three coupled projects presented here show a clear potential to reduce the environmental impact of manufacturing and other processes by implementing complimenting systems, which have environmental benefits of their own in order to achieve a compounding effect of reduced CED and GHG.

Development of Vapor Deposited Silica Sol-Gel Particles for a Bioactive Materials System to Direct Osteoblast Behavior

Tissue engineering and regenerative medicine have emerged in an effort to generate replacement tissues capable of restoring native tissue structure and function, but because of the complexity of biologic system, this has proven to be much harder than originally anticipated. Silica based bioactive glasses are popular as biomaterials because of their ability to enhance osteogenesis and angiogenesis. Sol-gel processing methods are popular in generating these materials because it offers: 1) mild processing conditions; 2) easily controlled structure and composition; 3) the ability to incorporate biological molecules; and 4) inherent biocompatibility. The goal of this work was to develop a bioactive vaporization system for the deposition of silica sol-gel particles as a means to modify the material properties of a substrate at the nano- and micro- level to better mimic the instructive conditions of native bone tissue, promoting appropriate osteoblast attachment, proliferation, and differentiation as a means for supporting bone tissue regeneration. The size distribution, morphology and degradation behavior of the vapor deposited sol-gel particles developed here were found to be dependent upon formulation (H2O:TMOS, pH, Ca/P incorporation) and manufacturing (substrate surface character, deposition time). Additionally, deposition of these particles onto substrates can be used to modify overall substrate properties including hydrophobicity, roughness, and topography. Deposition of Ca/P sol particles induced apatite-like mineral formation on both two- and three-dimensional materials when exposed to body fluids. Gene expression analysis suggests that Ca/P sol particles induce upregulation osteoblast gene expression (Runx2, OPN, OCN) in preosteoblasts during early culture time points. Upon further modification-specifically increasing particle stability-these Ca/P sol particles possess the potential to serve as a simple and unique means to modify biomaterial surface properties as a means to direct osteoblast differentiation.

Intravenous immunoglobulin contains a broad repertoire of anticarbohydrate antibodies that is not restricted to the IgG2 subclass

BACKGROUND: Specificities for carbohydrate IgG antibodies, thought to be predominantly of the IgG2 subclass, have never been broadly examined in healthy human subjects. OBJECTIVE: To examine commercial intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) preparations for their ability to recognize a wide range of glycans and to determine the contribution of IgG2 to the binding pattern observed. METHODS: We used a glycan microarray to evaluate IVIG preparations and a control mix of similar proportions of human myeloma IgG1 and IgG2 for binding to 377 glycans, courtesy of the Consortium for Functional Glycomics Core H. Glycans recognized were categorized using public databases for their likely cellular sources. IgG2 was depleted from IVIG by using immunoaffinity chromatography, and depletion was confirmed by using nephelometry and surface plasmon resonance. RESULTS: Nearly half of the glycans bound IgG. Some of the glycans with the greatest antibody binding can be found in structures of human pathogenic bacteria (eg, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Vibrio cholera) and nonpathogenic bacteria, including LPS and lipoteichoic acid, capsular polysaccharides, and exopolysaccharides. Surprisingly, depletion of IgG2 had only a modest effect on anticarbohydrate recognition patterns compared with the starting IVIG preparation. Little to no binding activity was detected to human endogenous glycans, including tumor-associated antigens. CONCLUSIONS: This novel, comprehensive analysis provides evidence that IVIG contains a much wider range than previously appreciated of anticarbohydrate IgG antibodies, including those recognizing both pathogenic and non-pathogen-associated prokaryotic glycans.

Endothelial cell activation leads to neutrophil transmigration as supported by the sequential roles of ICAM-2, JAM-A, and PECAM-1

Leukocyte transmigration is mediated by endothelial cell (EC) junctional molecules, but the associated mechanisms remain unclear. Here we investigate how intercellular adhesion molecule-2 (ICAM-2), junctional adhesion molecule-A (JAM-A), and platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule (PECAM-1) mediate neutrophil transmigration in a stimulus-dependent manner (eg, as induced by interleukin-1beta [IL-1beta] but not tumor necrosis factor-alpha [TNF-alpha]), and demonstrate their ability to act in sequence. Using a cell-transfer technique, transmigration responses of wild-type and TNF-alpha p55/p75 receptor-deficient leukocytes (TNFR(-/-)) through mouse cremasteric venules were quantified by fluorescence intravital microscopy. Whereas wild-type leukocytes showed a normal transmigration response to TNF-alpha in ICAM-2(-/-), JAM-A(-/-), and PECAM-1(-/-) recipient mice, TNFR(-/-) leukocytes exhibited a reduced transmigration response. Hence, when the ability of TNF-alpha to directly stimulate neutrophils is blocked, TNF-alpha-induced neutrophil transmigration is rendered dependent on ICAM-2, JAM-A, and PECAM-1, suggesting that the stimulus-dependent role of these molecules is governed by the target cell being activated. Furthermore, analysis of the site of arrest of neutrophils in inflamed tissues from ICAM-2(-/-), JAM-A(-/-), and PECAM-1(-/-) mice demonstrated that these molecules act sequentially to mediate transmigration. Collectively, the findings provide novel insights into the mechanisms of action of key molecules implicated in leukocyte transmigration.

Species-specific stomatal response of trees to drought - a link to vegetation dynamics?

Question: Is stomatal regulation specific for climate and tree species, and does it reveal species-specific responses to drought? Is there a link to vegetation dynamics? Location: Dry inner alpine valley, Switzerland Methods: Stomatal aperture (θE) of Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pubescens, Juniperus communis and Picea abies were continuously estimated by the ratio of measured branch sap flow rates to potential transpiration rates (adapted Penman-Monteith single leaf approach) at 10-min intervals over four seasons. Results: θE proved to be specific for climate and species and revealed distinctly different drought responses: Pinus stomata close disproportionately more than neighbouring species under dry conditions, but has a higher θE than the other species when weather was relatively wet and cool. Quercus keeps stomata more open under drought stress but has a lower θE under humid conditions. Juniperus was most drought-tolerant, whereas Picea stomata close almost completely during summer. Conclusions: The distinct microclimatic preferences of the four tree species in terms of θE strongly suggest that climate (change) is altering tree physiological performances and thus species-specific competitiveness. Picea and Pinus currently live at the physiological limit of their ability to withstand increasing temperature and drought intensities at the sites investigated, whereas Quercus and Juniperus perform distinctly better. This corresponds, at least partially, with regional vegetation dynamics: Pinus has strongly declined, whereas Quercus has significantly increased in abundance in the past 30 years. We conclude that θE provides an indication of a species' ability to cope with current and predicted climate.

Immune response of horses to vaccination with the recombinant Hc domain of botulinum neurotoxin types C and D

Botulinum neurotoxins, predominantly serotypes C and D, cause equine botulism through forage poisoning. The C-terminal part of the heavy chain of botulinum neurotoxin types C and D (HcBoNT/C and D) was expressed in Escherichia coli and evaluated as a recombinant mono- and bivalent vaccine in twelve horses in comparison to a commercially available toxoid vaccine. A three-dose subcutaneous immunization of adult horses elicited robust serum antibody response in an ELISA using the immunogen as a capture antigen. Immune sera showed dose-dependent high potency in neutralizing specifically the active BoNT/C and D in the mouse protection assay. The aluminium hydroxide based mono- and bivalent recombinant HcBoNT/C and D vaccines were characterized by good compatibility and the ability to elicit protective antibody titers similar or superior to the commercially available toxoid vaccine.

Investigations into Velocity and Distance Perception Based on Different Types of Moving Sound Sources with Respect to Auditory Virtual Environments

The characteristics of moving sound sources have strong implications on the listener's distance perception and the estimation of velocity. Modifications of the typical sound emissions as they are currently occurring due to the tendency towards electromobility have an impact on the pedestrian's safety in road traffic. Thus, investigations of the relevant cues for velocity and distance perception of moving sound sources are not only of interest for the psychoacoustic community, but also for several applications, like e.g. virtual reality, noise pollution and safety aspects of road traffic. This article describes a series of psychoacoustic experiments in this field. Dichotic and diotic stimuli of a set of real-life recordings taken from a passing passenger car and a motorcycle were presented to test subjects who in turn were asked to determine the velocity of the object and its minimal distance from the listener. The results of these psychoacoustic experiments show that the estimated velocity is strongly linked to the object's distance. Furthermore, it could be shown that binaural cues contribute significantly to the perception of velocity. In a further experiment, it was shown that - independently of the type of the vehicle - the main parameter for distance determination is the maximum sound pressure level at the listener's position. The article suggests a system architecture for the adequate consideration of moving sound sources in virtual auditory environments. Virtual environments can thus be used to investigate the influence of new vehicle powertrain concepts and the related sound emissions of these vehicles on the pedestrians' ability to estimate the distance and velocity of moving objects.

A survey of paediatric HIV programmatic and clinical management practices in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa--the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA)

INTRODUCTION There are limited data on paediatric HIV care and treatment programmes in low-resource settings. METHODS A standardized survey was completed by International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS paediatric cohort sites in the regions of Asia-Pacific (AP), Central Africa (CA), East Africa (EA), Southern Africa (SA) and West Africa (WA) to understand operational resource availability and paediatric management practices. Data were collected through January 2010 using a secure, web-based software program (REDCap). RESULTS A total of 64,552 children were under care at 63 clinics (AP, N=10; CA, N=4; EA, N=29; SA, N=10; WA, N=10). Most were in urban settings (N=41, 65%) and received funding from governments (N=51, 81%), PEPFAR (N=34, 54%), and/or the Global Fund (N=15, 24%). The majority were combined adult-paediatric clinics (N=36, 57%). Prevention of mother-to-child transmission was integrated at 35 (56%) sites; 89% (N=56) had access to DNA PCR for infant diagnosis. African (N=40/53) but not Asian sites recommended exclusive breastfeeding up until 4-6 months. Regular laboratory monitoring included CD4 (N=60, 95%), and viral load (N=24, 38%). Although 42 (67%) sites had the ability to conduct acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smears, 23 (37%) sites could conduct AFB cultures and 18 (29%) sites could conduct tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing. Loss to follow-up was defined as >3 months of lost contact for 25 (40%) sites, >6 months for 27 sites (43%) and >12 months for 6 sites (10%). Telephone calls (N=52, 83%) and outreach worker home visits to trace children lost to follow-up (N=45, 71%) were common. CONCLUSIONS In general, there was a high level of patient and laboratory monitoring within this multiregional paediatric cohort consortium that will facilitate detailed observational research studies. Practices will continue to be monitored as the WHO/UNAIDS Treatment 2.0 framework is implemented.

New approach to direct stenting using a novel "all-in-one" coronary stent system via 5 French diagnostic catheters: a pilot study

OBJECTIVES We sought to evaluate the strategy success and short term clinical outcomes of direct stenting via 5 French (F) diagnostic catheters using a novel bare metal stent with integrated delivery system (IDS) (Svelte Medical Systems, New Providence, NJ) and compare the results to a conventionally treated matched group. METHODS Fifteen consecutive patients with lesions deemed suitable for direct stenting using a bare metal stent were included. The primary endpoint was the strategy success defined as the ability to successfully treat a target lesion via a 5 F diagnostic catheter with a good angiographic result (TIMI III flow, residual stenosis ≤20%). Procedure and fluoroscopy times, contrast agent use, cost, and short-term clinical outcomes were compared to a matched group treated via conventional stenting. RESULTS The primary endpoint was reached in 14/15 patients (93%). There were no significant differences in procedural (58.6 min ± 12.7 vs. 57.4 min ± 14.2) or fluoroscopy times (10.0 min ± 4.3 vs.10.1 min ± 3.9) or contrast agent use (193.7 ml ± 54.8 vs. 181.4 ml ± 35.6). However, there were significant reductions in materials used in the study group compared to the control group equating to cost savings of almost US $600 per case (US $212.44 ± 258.09 vs. US $804.69 ± 468.11; P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Direct stenting using a novel bare metal stent with an IDS via 5 F diagnostic catheters is a viable alternative to conventional stenting in selected patients and is associated with significant cost savings.

Expanding the cone location and magnitude index to include corneal thickness and posterior surface information for the detection of keratoconus

PURPOSE To extend the capabilities of the Cone Location and Magnitude Index algorithm to include a combination of topographic information from the anterior and posterior corneal surfaces and corneal thickness measurements to further improve our ability to correctly identify keratoconus using this new index: ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X. DESIGN Retrospective case-control study. METHODS Three independent data sets were analyzed: 1 development and 2 validation. The AnteriorCornealPower index was calculated to stratify the keratoconus data from mild to severe. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm was applied to all tomography data collected using a dual Scheimpflug-Placido-based tomographer. The ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X formula, resulting from analysis of the Development set, was used to determine the logistic regression model that best separates keratoconus from normal and was applied to all data sets to calculate PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X. The sensitivity/specificity of PercentProbabilityKeratoconus_X was compared with the original PercentProbabilityKeratoconus, which only uses anterior axial data. RESULTS The AnteriorCornealPower severity distribution for the combined data sets are 136 mild, 12 moderate, and 7 severe. The logistic regression model generated for ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X produces complete separation for the Development set. Validation Set 1 has 1 false-negative and Validation Set 2 has 1 false-positive. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for the logistic model produced using the ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X algorithm are 99.4% and 99.6%, respectively. The overall sensitivity/specificity results for using the original ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm are 89.2% and 98.8%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex_X provides a robust index that can detect the presence or absence of a keratoconic pattern in corneal tomography maps with improved sensitivity/specificity from the original anterior surface-only ConeLocationMagnitudeIndex algorithm.

A systematic approach to analyse the sequelae of LCPD

The analysis and treatment of hips with healed Legg-Calvé-Perthes disease (LCPD) differs substantially from the treatment in the acute phase of the disease. More specifically, the treating orthopaedic surgeon is often faced with a complex three-dimensional pathomorphology of the hip that is difficult to understand and correct. To date, none of the current classification systems provide a useful decision-making algorithm with regards to the type of surgical intervention necessary to improve hip function in patients with sequelae of LCPD. The conceptual recognition of the femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) and the ability to safely dislocate the hip have revolutionised our diagnostic and therapeutic algorithm for joint-preserving surgery of hips with structural residuals of LCPD. We present a systematic approach to analyse femoral and acetabular pathomorphologic features. The resulting pathomechanisms and the surgical treatment options are presented.

From Complex to Stochastic Potential: Heavy Quarkonia in the Quark-Gluon Plasma

The in-medium physics of heavy quarkonium is an ideal proving ground for our ability to connect knowledge about the fundamental laws of physics to phenomenological predictions. One possible route to take is to attempt a description of heavy quark bound states at finite temperature through a Schrödinger equation with an instantaneous potential. Here we review recent progress in devising a comprehensive approach to define such a potential from first principles QCD and extract its, in general complex, values from non-perturbative lattice QCD simulations. Based on the theory of open quantum systems we will show how to interpret the role of the imaginary part in terms of spatial decoherence by introducing the concept of a stochastic potential. Shortcomings as well as possible paths for improvement are discussed.

Prospective memory, executive functions and metacognitive control: An empirical approach to their structural interrelations in young elementary school children

Introduction Prospective memory (PM), the ability to remember to perform intended activities in the future (Kliegel & Jäger, 2007), is crucial to succeed in everyday life. PM seems to improve gradually over the childhood years (Zimmermann & Meier, 2006), but yet little is known about PM competences in young school children in general, and even less is known about factors influencing its development. Currently, a number of studies suggest that executive functions (EF) are potentially influencing processes (Ford, Driscoll, Shum & Macaulay, 2012; Mahy & Moses, 2011). Additionally, metacognitive processes (MC: monitoring and control) are assumed to be involved while optimizing one’s performance (Krebs & Roebers, 2010; 2012; Roebers, Schmid, & Roderer, 2009). Yet, the relations between PM, EF and MC remain relatively unspecified. We intend to empirically examine the structural relations between these constructs. Method A cross-sectional study including 119 2nd graders (mage = 95.03, sdage = 4.82) will be presented. Participants (n = 68 girls) completed three EF tasks (stroop, updating, shifting), a computerised event-based PM task and a MC spelling task. The latent variables PM, EF and MC that were represented by manifest variables deriving from the conducted tasks, were interrelated by structural equation modelling. Results Analyses revealed clear associations between the three cognitive constructs PM, EF and MC (rpm-EF = .45, rpm-MC = .23, ref-MC = .20). A three factor model, as opposed to one or two factor models, appeared to fit excellently to the data (chi2(17, 119) = 18.86, p = .34, remsea = .030, cfi = .990, tli = .978). Discussion The results indicate that already in young elementary school children, PM, EF and MC are empirically well distinguishable, but nevertheless substantially interrelated. PM and EF seem to share a substantial amount of variance while for MC, more unique processes may be assumed.

Communication Across Cultures - Use of Video to Promote Culturally Competent Patient Management

Diverse belief systems exist among dental and medical patients related to health, healing and wellness. Culturally competent health care may be defined as the ability to provide care to patients with diverse values, beliefs and behaviors, including modifying delivery of care to meet patients’ social and cultural needs. [See PDF for complete abstract]