Estudo comparativo entre métodos de contrôle quantitativo da produção leiteira

This paper deals with the estimation of milk production by means of weekly, biweekly, bimonthly observations and also by method known as 6-5-8, where one observation is taken at the 6th week of lactation, another at 5th month and a third one at the 8th month. The data studied were obtained from 72 lactations of the Holstein Friesian breed of the "Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (Piracicaba), S. Paulo, Brazil), being 6 calvings on each month of year and also 12 first calvings, 12 second calvings, and so on, up to the sixth. The authors criticize the use of "maximum error" to be found in papers dealing with this subject, and also the use of mean deviation. The former is completely supersed and unadvisable and latter, although equivalent, to a certain extent, to the usual standard deviation, has only 87,6% of its efficiency, according to KENDALL (9, pp. 130-131, 10, pp. 6-7). The data obtained were compared with the actual production, obtained by daily control and the deviations observed were studied. Their means and standard deviations are given on the table IV. Inspite of BOX's recent results (11) showing that with equal numbers in all classes a certain inequality of varinces is not important, the autors separated the methods, before carrying out the analysis of variance, thus avoiding to put together methods with too different standard deviations. We compared the three first methods, to begin with (Table VI). Then we carried out the analysis with the four first methods. (Table VII). Finally we compared the two last methods. (Table VIII). These analysis of variance compare the arithmetic means of the deviations by the methods studied, and this is equivalent to compare their biases. So we conclude tht season of calving and order of calving do not effect the biases, and the methods themselves do not differ from this view point, with the exception of method 6-5-8. Another method of attack, maybe preferrable, would be to compare the estimates of the biases with their expected mean under the null hypothesis (zero) by the t-test. We have: 1) Weekley control: t = x - 0/c(x) = 8,59 - 0/ = 1,56 2) Biweekly control: t = 11,20 - 0/6,21= 1,80 3) Monthly control: t = 7,17 - 0/9,48 = 0,76 4) Bimonthly control: t = - 4,66 - 0/17,56 = -0,26 5) Method 6-5-8 t = 144,89 - 0/22,41 = 6,46*** We denote above by three asterisks, significance the 0,1% level of probability. In this way we should conclude that the weekly, biweekly, monthly and bimonthly methods of control may be assumed to be unbiased. The 6-5-8 method is proved to be positively biased, and here the bias equals 5,9% of the mean milk production. The precision of the methods studied may be judged by their standard deviations, or by intervals covering, with a certain probability (95% for example), the deviation x corresponding to an estimate obtained by cne of the methods studied. Since the difference x - x, where x is the mean of the 72 deviations obtained for each method, has a t distribution with mean zero and estimate of standard deviation. s(x - x) = √1+ 1/72 . s = 1.007. s , and the limit of t for the 5% probability, level with 71 degrees of freedom is 1.99, then the interval to be considered is given by x ± 1.99 x 1.007 s = x ± 2.00. s The intervals thus calculated are given on the table IX.

Report upon United States Geographical surveys west of the one hundredth meridian,

v. 5

Streblidae from Yemen, with description of one subspecies of Ascodipteron (Diptera)

v.39:no.17(1958)

Differences on allocation of available resources, in growth, reproduction, and survival, in an exotic gastropod of Physidae compared to an endemic one

Physa acuta Draparnaud, 1805 is an invasive gastropod that can affect local species. In Argentina, it is widespread and abundant, even in environments inhabited by the native species Stenophysa marmorata Guilding, 1828. Its predominance raises the question whether this could be explained by a more successful energy allocation in functional requirements (growth, reproduction and survival) compared to S. marmorata. This study was aimed at comparing growth rates, as well as survival and fecundity, between both species under laboratory conditions. Individuals born on the same day were grouped in four per aquaria and kept under controlled conditions of food, light, and temperature. Snails were weekly measured (maximum shell length), and growth rates were calculated using the Von Bertalanffy's equation. The number of eggs and survivors were grouped by week. Stenophysa marmorata was larger at birth than Physa acuta and invested more energy in growth, delaying sexual maturity. This resulted in a disadvantage in fecundity and survival compared to P. acuta, which had a lower growth rate but matured earlier and survived longer. Furthermore, the growth of P. acuta was not affected by reproduction, its reproductive period was longer, consequently with more eggs laid than S. marmorata.

Modelagem de ocorrência e densidade de juvenis de Callinectes sapidus (Decapoda, Portunidae) em dois estuários do Rio Grande do Sul, com dados zero-inflacionados

Dados de contagem de juvenis de siri-azul (Callinectes sapidus Rathbun, 1896) coletados em dois estuários do Rio Grande do Sul são objeto do presente estudo. Por se encontrarem zero-inflacionados, esses dados motivaram a formulação de modelos hierárquicos, que quantificam o efeito das covariáveis categóricas mês e local sobre a probabilidade de ocorrência e densidade dessas populações, levando em conta a detecção imperfeita. Foram também desenvolvidos modelos não-hierárquicos para comparação. Uma abordagem Bayesiana foi adotada para a estimação dos parâmetros dos modelos por simulação Monte Carlo com Cadeias de Markov (MCMC). A comparação entre modelos foi feita com o Critério de Informação da Deviância (DIC). Os modelos hierárquicos apresentaram ajustes melhores que os modelos convencionais, mitigaram o problema do excesso de zeros e permitiram analisar simultaneamente as probabilidades de ocorrência e a densidade de juvenis de siri-azul. No estuário da Lagoa dos Patos, a probabilidade de ocorrência de juvenis na Classe 2 aumenta com a distância da desembocadura, enquanto em Tramandaí os pontos intermediários apresentam as maiores probabilidades. Em ambos os estuários a ocorrência é mais provável nos meses de verão e de inverno. A densidade de juvenis da Classe 2 apresenta marcada variação em relação aos meses do ano sendo, em geral, maior no estuário de Tramandaí.

Uma estação biológica para o estudo dos mosquitos e dos outros animaes silvestres relacionados com a febre amarela

The outbreak of the jungle or forest yellow fever, through the adapta¬tion, quite recently of the yellow fever virus o the forest mosquitoes, brou¬ght the necessity of ecological researches on hese mosquitoes, as well as on the wild animals they bite, some of them being susceptible to the desease. This has been done by the special yellow fever Service of the State of Sao Paulo, in a special Biological Station in Perús, São Paulo, which has been built in the midst of the jungle. This station was made with plain materials, and covered with straw, but was confortable enough for the technical work, i nthe early months of 1938. During the months in which the investigations were being carried on, the following interesting results were obtained: 1. As we have already pointed out in other places, the forest mosquitoes biting us during daytime, are always new born insects, having not yet sucked blood, as it is the general rule with all mosquitoes, and therefore also, with the anopheles and stegomyia, and this explains why nobody gets malaria or yellow fever, transmitted by anofeles or by aedes aegypti during the day. We think therefore, the jungle yellow fever, got during daytime is not due to the infected jungle or forest mosquito biting, but to infection through the human skin coming into close contact with tre virus, which the forest mosquitoes lay with their dejections, on the leaves of the trees where they remain sitting du¬ring the day. 2. As it is the rule with anopheles, stegomyia and other mosquitoes, the insects once having sucked blood, take nocturnal habits and, therefore, bite us, only during the night, so it happens with the forest mosquito, and insects with developped eggs and blood in stomach have been caught within the sta¬tion house, during the night. During the day, these mosquitoes do not bite, but remain quite still on the leaves of the trees, in the damp parts of the woods. 3. Jungle or forest mosquitoes can easely bite wild animals, some with more avidity then ethers, as it has bee npointed out to the opossum (didei-phis) and other animals. They also bite birds having very thin skin and only exceptionally, cold bloods animals. 5. Is has hot been possible to ascertain how forest mosquitoes are able to live, from onde season to another, through winter, when temperature drops near and even below zero. They have not been found in holes of the terrain, of trees and of animals, as it is the rule in cold countries. During winter, in the forest, it is possible to find larvs in the holes of bambus and trees full of water. As wild animals do not harbour the yellow fever virus for a long time in their body, it is diffcult to explain how the desease lasts from one season to another. Many ecological features on the mosquito, remains yet to be explained and therefore it in necessary to go on with the investigations, in bio¬logical stations, such as that one built up in Perús, São Paulo.

Subsídio ao melhor conhecimento do tifo exantemático neotrópico no Brasil: presença do virus no leite

In articles, already published, we have proved that the strain V. B. of Brazilian virus, goes through the placenta (Macacus rhesus) (1) and the apparently normal gastro-intestinal tube (1934-1937) (Canis familiaris) (2). Today we present the idea that the Brazilian virus can reach the milk of an animal even when the latter has only the unapparent disease. In former articles (**), we have shown that the goat (Capra hircus) can be an excellent reservoir of Brazilian virus, having the strain V. B. in its blood and presenting a Weil Felix reaction high and in “group”, with the disease unapparent. When the goats are bred in the laboratory, and even in some foci of the disease, they give a negative Weil Felix, being zero for all the nine strains of Proteus. In the interior of Brazil, in many localities, goats substitute cows, in supplying milk for children and adults, and in some districts goat’s milk is considered superior to cow’s milk, possessing marvellous qualities for men, women an children. Having proved, now, that goat’s milk can contain the virus even when the animal presents nothing clinically, and having also shown that this virus goes through the digestive tube apparently sound, it is easy to understand how infants-in-arms, that is, only a few months old, living in strictly domestic surroundings, can contract the disease; we have many such cases on record. Protocol of the experiments: Goat nº 2, white, January 1948. This animal had been inoculated with the V. B. strain of the Brazilian virus in June 1947, via intra-peritoneal, presenting nothing then, not even a feverish reaction. On that occasion it was not possible to isolate the virus of the blood, although the Weil Felix reaction was positive, high and in “group”. Now January 17, 1948, seven months later, the same animal was reinoculated with a semple of virus V. B. in the same manner (intra-peritoneal) two days after bringing forth two sturdy kids. The virus V. B. was obtained from guinea-pig n. 7170 whose thermic graph was as follows: Temperatura – 38,8 – 39,1 – 39,5 – 39,4 –39,8 – 40,4 – 40,2 – 40,1 - + Necropsy – Typical lesions. The spleen weighed 5 grammes. With 3c.c. of emulsion from the nervous system of this guinea-pig, we inoculated not only the goat, as also two guineapigs, number 14 and number 5. The following is the thermic graph of one: - Guinea-pig n. 14 – 38,9 – 39,1 – 39,2 – 39.2 – 40,7 – 41,0 – 40,5 – 40,4 – 40,1 - + Typical lesions. Guinea-pig n. 2 presented the following thermic graph after the infective inoculation: - 39,5 – 39,7 – 39,7 – 39,7 – 39,5 – 39,3 – 39,5 – 39,5 – 39,5 – etc. Clinically, this animal presented nothing unusual, feeding well and suckling the kids normally. The Weil Felix reaction was positive, in “group” high very similar to the reaction obtained in June 1947, with the first infective inoculation. On the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh day after the infective inoculation, we took milk from the goat and inoculated male guinea-pigs via intra-celular and via intra-peritoneal, giving 5 c.c. to each animal. Guinea-pig n. 4663, inoculated with 5 c.c. of milk, via intra-muscular, taken on the third day of the infectaive inoculation, presented the following thermic graph: - 38.8 (*) – 39,1 – 39,0 – 39,1 – 40,1 – 40,1 – 40,8 (**) – 40,8 – Killed – Typical deisions (***). The virus V. B. of this goat, circulated naturally in the blood up to the third day, having passed into the milk, producing nothing in the kids, on account of the natural resistance of these animals to the disease. The Weil Felix reaction and that of Widal for the Burcellas suis, abortus and militensis were negative for the goat and the kids. It is remarkable that, even with inoculation of the living virus after a period of seven months we cannot get a real and absolute immunity of sensitive animals. We shall return to this subject later. The hart Mazama simplicicornis may be a carrier of the virus in Brasil. The experimental serum against the virus of Exanthematic neotropical typhus has not protected guinea-pigs.

Periodic orbits near a heteroclinic loop formed by one dimensional orbit and a 2-dimensional manifold: application to the charged collinear 3-body problem

The paper is devoted to the study of a type of differential systems which appear usually in the study of some Hamiltonian systems with 2 degrees of freedom. We prove the existence of infinitely many periodic orbits on each negative energy level. All these periodic orbits pass near the total collision. Finally we apply these results to study the existence of periodic orbits in the charged collinear 3–body problem.

How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility and volatility. Narrower bands should give less scope for the exchange rate to fluctuate but may make agents perceive a larger probability of realignment which by itself should increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We build a model where this trade-off is made explicit. The model is used to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most EMS countries after their target zones were widened on August 1993. As a natural extension, the model also rationalizes the existence of non-official, implicit target zones (or fear of floating), suggested by some authors.

Are one factor logarithmic volatility models useful to fit the features of financial data? An application to microsoft data.

This paper provides empirical evidence that continuous time models with one factor of volatility, in some conditions, are able to fit the main characteristics of financial data. It also reports the importance of the feedback factor in capturing the strong volatility clustering of data, caused by a possible change in the pattern of volatility in the last part of the sample. We use the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) by Gallant and Tauchen (1996) to estimate logarithmic models with one and two stochastic volatility factors (with and without feedback) and to select among them.