Efficient estimation using the characteristic function : theory and applications with high frequency data

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Mental illness in modern and contemporary theatre : An analysis of representations of mental illness in a selection of plays, accompanied by a new play about schizophrenia

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Choix de portefeuille de grande taille et mesures de risque pour preneurs de décision pessimistes

Cette thèse de doctorat consiste en trois chapitres qui traitent des sujets de choix de portefeuilles de grande taille, et de mesure de risque. Le premier chapitre traite du problème d’erreur d’estimation dans les portefeuilles de grande taille, et utilise le cadre d'analyse moyenne-variance. Le second chapitre explore l'importance du risque de devise pour les portefeuilles d'actifs domestiques, et étudie les liens entre la stabilité des poids de portefeuille de grande taille et le risque de devise. Pour finir, sous l'hypothèse que le preneur de décision est pessimiste, le troisième chapitre dérive la prime de risque, une mesure du pessimisme, et propose une méthodologie pour estimer les mesures dérivées. Le premier chapitre améliore le choix optimal de portefeuille dans le cadre du principe moyenne-variance de Markowitz (1952). Ceci est motivé par les résultats très décevants obtenus, lorsque la moyenne et la variance sont remplacées par leurs estimations empiriques. Ce problème est amplifié lorsque le nombre d’actifs est grand et que la matrice de covariance empirique est singulière ou presque singulière. Dans ce chapitre, nous examinons quatre techniques de régularisation pour stabiliser l’inverse de la matrice de covariance: le ridge, spectral cut-off, Landweber-Fridman et LARS Lasso. Ces méthodes font chacune intervenir un paramètre d’ajustement, qui doit être sélectionné. La contribution principale de cette partie, est de dériver une méthode basée uniquement sur les données pour sélectionner le paramètre de régularisation de manière optimale, i.e. pour minimiser la perte espérée d’utilité. Précisément, un critère de validation croisée qui prend une même forme pour les quatre méthodes de régularisation est dérivé. Les règles régularisées obtenues sont alors comparées à la règle utilisant directement les données et à la stratégie naïve 1/N, selon leur perte espérée d’utilité et leur ratio de Sharpe. Ces performances sont mesurée dans l’échantillon (in-sample) et hors-échantillon (out-of-sample) en considérant différentes tailles d’échantillon et nombre d’actifs. Des simulations et de l’illustration empirique menées, il ressort principalement que la régularisation de la matrice de covariance améliore de manière significative la règle de Markowitz basée sur les données, et donne de meilleurs résultats que le portefeuille naïf, surtout dans les cas le problème d’erreur d’estimation est très sévère. Dans le second chapitre, nous investiguons dans quelle mesure, les portefeuilles optimaux et stables d'actifs domestiques, peuvent réduire ou éliminer le risque de devise. Pour cela nous utilisons des rendements mensuelles de 48 industries américaines, au cours de la période 1976-2008. Pour résoudre les problèmes d'instabilité inhérents aux portefeuilles de grandes tailles, nous adoptons la méthode de régularisation spectral cut-off. Ceci aboutit à une famille de portefeuilles optimaux et stables, en permettant aux investisseurs de choisir différents pourcentages des composantes principales (ou dégrées de stabilité). Nos tests empiriques sont basés sur un modèle International d'évaluation d'actifs financiers (IAPM). Dans ce modèle, le risque de devise est décomposé en deux facteurs représentant les devises des pays industrialisés d'une part, et celles des pays émergents d'autres part. Nos résultats indiquent que le risque de devise est primé et varie à travers le temps pour les portefeuilles stables de risque minimum. De plus ces stratégies conduisent à une réduction significative de l'exposition au risque de change, tandis que la contribution de la prime risque de change reste en moyenne inchangée. Les poids de portefeuille optimaux sont une alternative aux poids de capitalisation boursière. Par conséquent ce chapitre complète la littérature selon laquelle la prime de risque est importante au niveau de l'industrie et au niveau national dans la plupart des pays. Dans le dernier chapitre, nous dérivons une mesure de la prime de risque pour des préférences dépendent du rang et proposons une mesure du degré de pessimisme, étant donné une fonction de distorsion. Les mesures introduites généralisent la mesure de prime de risque dérivée dans le cadre de la théorie de l'utilité espérée, qui est fréquemment violée aussi bien dans des situations expérimentales que dans des situations réelles. Dans la grande famille des préférences considérées, une attention particulière est accordée à la CVaR (valeur à risque conditionnelle). Cette dernière mesure de risque est de plus en plus utilisée pour la construction de portefeuilles et est préconisée pour compléter la VaR (valeur à risque) utilisée depuis 1996 par le comité de Bâle. De plus, nous fournissons le cadre statistique nécessaire pour faire de l’inférence sur les mesures proposées. Pour finir, les propriétés des estimateurs proposés sont évaluées à travers une étude Monte-Carlo, et une illustration empirique en utilisant les rendements journaliers du marché boursier américain sur de la période 2000-2011.

The psychophysics of decision making in a two-direction random dot motion target selection task

La tâche de kinématogramme de points aléatoires est utilisée avec le paradigme de choix forcé entre deux alternatives pour étudier les prises de décisions perceptuelles. Les modèles décisionnels supposent que les indices de mouvement pour les deux alternatives sont encodés dans le cerveau. Ainsi, la différence entre ces deux signaux est accumulée jusqu’à un seuil décisionnel. Cependant, aucune étude à ce jour n’a testé cette hypothèse avec des stimuli contenant des mouvements opposés. Ce mémoire présente les résultats de deux expériences utilisant deux nouveaux stimuli avec des indices de mouvement concurrentiels. Parmi une variété de combinaisons d’indices concurrentiels, la performance des sujets dépend de la différence nette entre les deux signaux opposés. De plus, les sujets obtiennent une performance similaire avec les deux types de stimuli. Ces résultats supportent un modèle décisionnel basé sur l’accumulation des indices de mouvement net et suggèrent que le processus décisionnel peut intégrer les signaux de mouvement à partir d’une grande gamme de directions pour obtenir un percept global de mouvement.

AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK FOR SONAR TARGET DETECTION

Neural Network has emerged as the topic of the day. The spectrum of its application is as wide as from ECG noise filtering to seismic data analysis and from elementary particle detection to electronic music composition. The focal point of the proposed work is an application of a massively parallel connectionist model network for detection of a sonar target. This task is segmented into: (i) generation of training patterns from sea noise that contains radiated noise of a target, for teaching the network;(ii) selection of suitable network topology and learning algorithm and (iii) training of the network and its subsequent testing where the network detects, in unknown patterns applied to it, the presence of the features it has already learned in. A three-layer perceptron using backpropagation learning is initially subjected to a recursive training with example patterns (derived from sea ambient noise with and without the radiated noise of a target). On every presentation, the error in the output of the network is propagated back and the weights and the bias associated with each neuron in the network are modified in proportion to this error measure. During this iterative process, the network converges and extracts the target features which get encoded into its generalized weights and biases.In every unknown pattern that the converged network subsequently confronts with, it searches for the features already learned and outputs an indication for their presence or absence. This capability for target detection is exhibited by the response of the network to various test patterns presented to it.Three network topologies are tried with two variants of backpropagation learning and a grading of the performance of each combination is subsequently made.

Packaging materials for shrimp, fish and fish products, their properties, selection and effect of different packaging materials on their shelf life

Packaging is important not only in extending the shellife of fish and fishery products but also improving their marketability. In the recent years, significant development have taken place in the packaging industry. During the past decade in India, there is almost a packaging revolution with the availability of variety packaging materials, thus generating better packaging consciousness in other producer/manufacturing industries. But unfortunately, such realisation is not forthcoming in the fisheries sector and packaging techniques for local and export trade continues to be on traditional lines with their inherent drawbacks and limitations. Better packaging ensures improved quality and presentation of the products and ensures higher returns to the producer. Among several packaging materials used in fishery industry, ISI specifications had been formulated only for corrugated fibre board boxes for export of seafoods and froglegs. This standard was formulated before containersiation came into existance in the export of marine products. Before containerisation, the standards were stringent in view of the rough handling, transportation and storage. Two of the common defects reported in the master cartons exported from India are low mechanical strength and tendency to get wet. They are weakened by the deposits of moisture caused by temperature fluctuations during loading, unloading and other handling stages. It is necessary to rectify the above defects in packaging aquatic products and hence in the present study extensive investigations are carried out to find out the reasons for the damage of master cartons, to evolve code of practice for the packaging oi frozen shrimp for exports, development of alternative style of packaging for the shipping container, development of suitable consumer packaging materials for fish soup powder, cured dried mackeral, fish pickles in oil and frozen shrimp. For the development of suitable packaging materials, it is absolutely essential to know the properties of packaging materials, effect of different packaging materials on theirshelf life and their suitability for food contact applications.

Materials for Fish Nets-Their Properties, Selection and Preservation

The properties of synthetic fibres vary with thc inherent physical characteristics of the basic raw materials used mode of preparation of yarns and method of construction of twines. Since the synthetic fibres as maufactured from polymers which are synthesized from simple chemical units, the qualities of man-made fibres can he influenced by the process of manufacture and certain modifications can even be introduced at the processing stage to meet any specific requirement to a certain extent. Hence, an elaborate study of the properties of fish not twines produced has been taken up with a view to determining their suitability for various types of fishing gear with particular reference to conditions prevailing in India.

FEATURE SELECTION AND COMPARISON OF TWO NAÏVE BAYES CLASSIFICATION METHODS IN THE CONTEXT OF SPAM FILTERING

Treating e-mail filtering as a binary text classification problem, researchers have applied several statistical learning algorithms to email corpora with promising results. This paper examines the performance of a Naive Bayes classifier using different approaches to feature selection and tokenization on different email corpora

Applying Data mining using Statistical Techniques for Career Selection

For years, choosing the right career by monitoring the trends and scope for different career paths have been a requirement for all youngsters all over the world. In this paper we provide a scientific, data mining based method for job absorption rate prediction and predicting the waiting time needed for 100% placement, for different engineering courses in India. This will help the students in India in a great deal in deciding the right discipline for them for a bright future. Information about passed out students are obtained from the NTMIS ( National technical manpower information system ) NODAL center in Kochi, India residing in Cochin University of science and technology

Selection of Marine Yeasts for the Generation of Single Cell Protein from Prawn-shell Waste

Marine yeasts (33 strains) were isolated from the coastal and offshore waters off Cochin. The isolates were identified and then characterized for the utilization of starch, gelatin, lipid, cellulose, urea, pectin, lignin, chitin and prawn-shell waste. Most of the isolates were Candida species. Based on the biochemical characterization, four potential strains were selected and their optimum pH and NaCI concentration for growth were determined. These strains were then inoculated into prawn-shell waste and SCP (single cell protein) generation was noted in terms of the increase in protein content of the final product.

User Profile Management and Selection in Context-Aware Service Platforms for Networks Beyond 3G

In recent years, progress in the area of mobile telecommunications has changed our way of life, in the private as well as the business domain. Mobile and wireless networks have ever increasing bit rates, mobile network operators provide more and more services, and at the same time costs for the usage of mobile services and bit rates are decreasing. However, mobile services today still lack functions that seamlessly integrate into users’ everyday life. That is, service attributes such as context-awareness and personalisation are often either proprietary, limited or not available at all. In order to overcome this deficiency, telecommunications companies are heavily engaged in the research and development of service platforms for networks beyond 3G for the provisioning of innovative mobile services. These service platforms are to support such service attributes. Service platforms are to provide basic service-independent functions such as billing, identity management, context management, user profile management, etc. Instead of developing own solutions, developers of end-user services such as innovative messaging services or location-based services can utilise the platform-side functions for their own purposes. In doing so, the platform-side support for such functions takes away complexity, development time and development costs from service developers. Context-awareness and personalisation are two of the most important aspects of service platforms in telecommunications environments. The combination of context-awareness and personalisation features can also be described as situation-dependent personalisation of services. The support for this feature requires several processing steps. The focus of this doctoral thesis is on the processing step, in which the user’s current context is matched against situation-dependent user preferences to find the matching user preferences for the current user’s situation. However, to achieve this, a user profile management system and corresponding functionality is required. These parts are also covered by this thesis. Altogether, this thesis provides the following contributions: The first part of the contribution is mainly architecture-oriented. First and foremost, we provide a user profile management system that addresses the specific requirements of service platforms in telecommunications environments. In particular, the user profile management system has to deal with situation-specific user preferences and with user information for various services. In order to structure the user information, we also propose a user profile structure and the corresponding user profile ontology as part of an ontology infrastructure in a service platform. The second part of the contribution is the selection mechanism for finding matching situation-dependent user preferences for the personalisation of services. This functionality is provided as a sub-module of the user profile management system. Contrary to existing solutions, our selection mechanism is based on ontology reasoning. This mechanism is evaluated in terms of runtime performance and in terms of supported functionality compared to other approaches. The results of the evaluation show the benefits and the drawbacks of ontology modelling and ontology reasoning in practical applications.

Farmers’ desired traits and selection criteria for maize varieties and their implications for maize breeding: A case study from KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa

Adoption of hybrids and improved varieties has remained low in the smallholder farming sector of South Africa, despite maize being the staple food crop for the majority of households. The objective of this study was to establish preferred maize characteristics by farmers which can be used as selection criteria by maize breeders in crop improvement. Data were collected from three villages of a selected smallholder farming area in South Africa using a survey covering 300 households and participatory rural appraisal methodology. Results indicated a limited selection of maize varieties grown by farmers in the area compared to other communities in Africa. More than 97% of the farmers grew a local landrace called Natal-8-row or IsiZulu. Hybrids and improved open pollinated varieties were planted by less than 40% of the farmers. The Natal-8-row landrace had characteristics similar to landraces from eastern and southern Africa and closely resembled Hickory King, a landrace still popular in Southern Africa. The local landrace was preferred for its taste, recycled seed, tolerance to abiotic stresses and yield stability. Preferred characteristics of maize varieties were high yield and prolificacy, disease resistance, early maturity, white grain colour, and drying and shelling qualities. Farmers were willing to grow hybrids if the cost of seed and other inputs were affordable and their preferences were considered. Our results show that breeding opportunities exist for improving the farmers’ local varieties and maize breeders can take advantage of these preferred traits and incorporate them into existing high yielding varieties.

Attentional Selection in Object Recognition

A key problem in object recognition is selection, namely, the problem of identifying regions in an image within which to start the recognition process, ideally by isolating regions that are likely to come from a single object. Such a selection mechanism has been found to be crucial in reducing the combinatorial search involved in the matching stage of object recognition. Even though selection is of help in recognition, it has largely remained unsolved because of the difficulty in isolating regions belonging to objects under complex imaging conditions involving occlusions, changing illumination, and object appearances. This thesis presents a novel approach to the selection problem by proposing a computational model of visual attentional selection as a paradigm for selection in recognition. In particular, it proposes two modes of attentional selection, namely, attracted and pay attention modes as being appropriate for data and model-driven selection in recognition. An implementation of this model has led to new ways of extracting color, texture and line group information in images, and their subsequent use in isolating areas of the scene likely to contain the model object. Among the specific results in this thesis are: a method of specifying color by perceptual color categories for fast color region segmentation and color-based localization of objects, and a result showing that the recognition of texture patterns on model objects is possible under changes in orientation and occlusions without detailed segmentation. The thesis also presents an evaluation of the proposed model by integrating with a 3D from 2D object recognition system and recording the improvement in performance. These results indicate that attentional selection can significantly overcome the computational bottleneck in object recognition, both due to a reduction in the number of features, and due to a reduction in the number of matches during recognition using the information derived during selection. Finally, these studies have revealed a surprising use of selection, namely, in the partial solution of the pose of a 3D object.

Comparing Support Vector Machines with Gaussian Kernels to Radial Basis Function Classifiers

The Support Vector (SV) machine is a novel type of learning machine, based on statistical learning theory, which contains polynomial classifiers, neural networks, and radial basis function (RBF) networks as special cases. In the RBF case, the SV algorithm automatically determines centers, weights and threshold such as to minimize an upper bound on the expected test error. The present study is devoted to an experimental comparison of these machines with a classical approach, where the centers are determined by $k$--means clustering and the weights are found using error backpropagation. We consider three machines, namely a classical RBF machine, an SV machine with Gaussian kernel, and a hybrid system with the centers determined by the SV method and the weights trained by error backpropagation. Our results show that on the US postal service database of handwritten digits, the SV machine achieves the highest test accuracy, followed by the hybrid approach. The SV approach is thus not only theoretically well--founded, but also superior in a practical application.