826 resultados para Water Distribution Networks Demand Forecasting
Resumo:
Precipitation-induced runoff and leaching from milled peat mining mires by peat types: a comparative method for estimating the loading of water bodies during peat production. This research project in environmental geology has arisen out of an observed need to be able to predict more accurately the loading of watercourses with detrimental organic substances and nutrients from already existing and planned peat production areas, since the authorities capacity for insisting on such predictions covering the whole duration of peat production in connection with evaluations of environmental impact is at present highly limited. National and international decisions regarding monitoring of the condition of watercourses and their improvement and restoration require more sophisticated evaluation methods in order to be able to forecast watercourse loading and its environmental impacts at the stage of land-use planning and preparations for peat production.The present project thus set out from the premise that it would be possible on the basis of existing mire and peat data properties to construct estimates for the typical loading from production mires over the whole duration of their exploitation. Finland has some 10 million hectares of peatland, accounting for almost a third of its total area. Macroclimatic conditions have varied in the course of the Holocene growth and development of this peatland, and with them the habitats of the peat-forming plants. Temperatures and moisture conditions have played a significant role in determining the dominant species of mire plants growing there at any particular time, the resulting mire types and the accumulation and deposition of plant remains to form the peat. The above climatic, environmental and mire development factors, together with ditching, have contributed, and continue to contribute, to the existence of peat horizons that differ in their physical and chemical properties, leading to differences in material transport between peatlands in a natural state and mires that have been ditched or prepared for forestry and peat production. Watercourse loading from the ditching of mires or their use for peat production can have detrimental effects on river and lake environments and their recreational use, especially where oxygen-consuming organic solids and soluble organic substances and nutrients are concerned. It has not previously been possible, however, to estimate in advance the watercourse loading likely to arise from ditching and peat production on the basis of the characteristics of the peat in a mire, although earlier observations have indicated that watercourse loading from peat production can vary greatly and it has been suggested that differences in peat properties may be of significance in this. Sprinkling is used here in combination with simulations of conditions in a milled peat production area to determine the influence of the physical and chemical properties of milled peats in production mires on surface runoff into the drainage ditches and the concentrations of material in the runoff water. Sprinkling and extraction experiments were carried out on 25 samples of milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peat of humification grades H 2.5 8.5 with moisture content in the range 23.4 89% on commencement of the first sprinkling, which was followed by a second sprinkling 24 hours later. The water retention capacity of the peat was best, and surface runoff lowest, with Sphagnum and Carex peat samples of humification grades H 2.5 6 in the moisture content class 56 75%. On account of the hydrophobicity of dry peat, runoff increased in a fairly regular manner with drying of the sample from 55% to 24 30%. Runoff from the samples with an original moisture content over 55% increased by 63% in the second round of sprinkling relative to the first, as they had practically reached saturation point on the first occasion, while those with an original moisture content below 55% retained their high runoff in the second round, due to continued hydrophobicity. The well-humified samples (H 6.5 8.5) with a moisture content over 80% showed a low water retention capacity and high runoff in both rounds of sprinkling. Loading of the runoff water with suspended solids, total phosphorus and total nitrogen, and also the chemical oxygen demand (CODMn O2), varied greatly in the sprinkling experiment, depending on the peat type and degree of humification, but concentrations of the same substances in the two sprinklings were closely or moderately closely correlated and these correlations were significant. The concentrations of suspended solids in the runoff water observed in the simulations of a peat production area and the direct surface runoff from it into the drainage ditch system in response to rain (sprinkling intensity 1.27 mm/min) varied c. 60-fold between the degrees of humification in the case of the Carex peats and c. 150-fold for the Sphagnum peats, while chemical oxygen demand varied c. 30-fold and c. 50-fold, respectively, total phosphorus c. 60-fold and c. 66-fold, total nitrogen c. 65-fold and c. 195-fold and ammonium nitrogen c. 90-fold and c. 30-fold. The increases in concentrations in the runoff water were very closely correlated with increases in humification of the peat. The correlations of the concentrations measured in extraction experiments (48 h) with peat type and degree of humification corresponded to those observed in the sprinkler experiments. The resulting figures for the surface runoff from a peat production area into the drainage ditches simulated by means of sprinkling and material concentrations in the runoff water were combined with statistics on the mean extent of daily rainfall (0 67 mm) during the frost-free period of the year (May October) over an observation period of 30 years to yield typical annual loading figures (kg/ha) for suspended solids (SS), chemical oxygen demand of organic matter (CODmn O2), total phosphorus (tot. P) and total nitrogen (tot. N) entering the ditches with respect to milled Carex (C) and Sphagnum (S) peats of humification grades H 2.5 8.5. In order to calculate the loading of drainage ditches from a milled peat production mire with the aid of these annual comparative values (in kg/ha), information is required on the properties of the intended production mire and its peat. Once data are available on the area of the mire, its peat depth, peat types and their degrees of humification, dry matter content, calorific value and corresponding energy content, it is possible to produce mutually comparable estimates for individual mires with respect to the annual loading of the drainage ditch system and the surrounding watercourse for the whole service life of the production area, the duration of this service life, determinations of energy content and the amount of loading per unit of energy generated (kg/MWh). In the 8 mires in the Köyhäjoki basin, Central Ostrobothnia, taken as an example, the loading of suspended solids (SS) in the drainage ditch networks calculated on the basis of the typical values obtained here and existing mire and peat data and expressed per unit of energy generated varied between the mires and horizons in the range 0.9 16.5 kg/MWh. One of the aims of this work was to develop means of making better use of existing mire and peat data and the results of corings and other field investigations. In this respect combination of the typical loading values (kg/ha) obtained here for S, SC, CS and C peats and the various degrees of humification (H 2.5 8.5) with the above mire and peat data by means of a computer program for the acquisition and handling of such data would enable all the information currently available and that deposited in the system in the future to be used for defining watercourse loading estimates for mires and comparing them with the corresponding estimates of energy content. The intention behind this work has been to respond to the challenge facing the energy generation industry to find larger peat production areas that exert less loading on the environment and to that facing the environmental authorities to improve the means available for estimating watercourse loading from peat production and its environmental impacts in advance. The results conform well to the initial hypothesis and to the goals laid down for the research and should enable watercourse loading from existing and planned peat production to be evaluated better in the future and the resulting impacts to be taken into account when planning land use and energy generation. The advance loading information available in this way would be of value in the selection of individual peat production areas, the planning of their exploitation, the introduction of water protection measures and the planning of loading inspections, in order to achieve controlled peat production that pays due attention to environmental considerations.
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In this paper, we propose a new security metric for measuring resilience of a symmetric key distribution scheme in wireless sensor network. A polynomial-based and a novel complete connectivity schemes are proposed and an analytical comparison, in terms of security and connectivity, between the schemes is shown. Motivated by the schemes, we derive general expressions for security and connectivity. A number of conclusions are made using these general expressions.
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Research on corporate responsibility has traditionally focused on the responsibilities of companies within their corporate boundaries only. Yet this view is challenged today as more and more companies face the situation in which the environmental and social performance of their suppliers, distributors, industry or other associated partners impacts on their sales performance and brand equity. Simultaneously, policy-makers have taken up the discussion on corporate responsibility from the perspective of globalisation, in particular of global supply chains. The category of selecting and evaluating suppliers has also entered the field of environmental reporting. Companies thus need to tackle their responsibility in collaboration with different partners. The aim of the thesis is to further the understanding of collaboration and corporate environmental responsibility beyond corporate boundaries. Drawing on the fields of supply chain management and industrial ecology, the thesis sets out to investigate inter-firm collaboration on three different levels, between the company and its stakeholders, in the supply chain, and in the demand network of a company. The thesis is comprised of four papers: Paper A discusses the use of different research approaches in logistics and supply chain management. Paper B introduces the study on collaboration and corporate environmental responsibility from a focal company perspective, looking at the collaboration of companies with their stakeholders, and the salience of these stakeholders. Paper C widens this perspective to an analysis on the supply chain level. The focus here is not only beyond corporate boundaries, but also beyond direct supplier and customer interfaces in the supply chain. Paper D then extends the analysis to the demand network level, taking into account the input-output, competitive and regulatory environments, in which a company operates. The results of the study broaden the view of corporate responsibility. By applying this broader view, different types of inter-firm collaboration can be highlighted. Results also show how environmental demand is extended in the supply chain regardless of the industry background of the company.
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A diffusion/replacement model for new consumer durables designed to be used as a long-term forecasting tool is developed. The model simulates new demand as well as replacement demand over time. The model is called DEMSIM and is built upon a counteractive adoption model specifying the basic forces affecting the adoption behaviour of individual consumers. These forces are the promoting forces and the resisting forces. The promoting forces are further divided into internal and external influences. These influences are operationalized within a multi-segmental diffusion model generating the adoption behaviour of the consumers in each segment as an expected value. This diffusion model is combined with a replacement model built upon the same segmental structure as the diffusion model. This model generates, in turn, the expected replacement behaviour in each segment. To be able to use DEMSIM as a forecasting tool in early stages of a diffusion process estimates of the model parameters are needed as soon as possible after product launch. However, traditional statistical techniques are not very helpful in estimating such parameters in early stages of a diffusion process. To enable early parameter calibration an optimization algorithm is developed by which the main parameters of the diffusion model can be estimated on the basis of very few sales observations. The optimization is carried out in iterative simulation runs. Empirical validations using the optimization algorithm reveal that the diffusion model performs well in early long-term sales forecasts, especially as it comes to the timing of future sales peaks.
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This paper presents a new strategy for load distribution in a single-level tree network equipped with or without front-ends. The load is distributed in more than one installment in an optimal manner to minimize the processing time. This is a deviation and an improvement over earlier studies in which the load distribution is done in only one installment. Recursive equations for the general case, and their closed form solutions for a special case in which the network has identical processors and identical links, are derived. An asymptotic analysis of the network performance with respect to the number of processors and the number of installments is carried out. Discussions of the results in terms of some practical issues like the tradeoff relationship between the number of processors and the number of installments are also presented.
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Ad hoc networks are being used in applications ranging from disaster recovery to distributed collaborative entertainment applications. Ad hoc networks have become one of the most attractive solution for rapid deployment of interconnecting large number of mobile personal devices. The user community of mobile personal devices are demanding a variety of value added multimedia entertainment services. The popularity of peer group is increasing and one or some members of the peer group need to send data to some or all members of the peer group. The increasing demand for group oriented value added services is driving for efficient multicast service over ad hoc networks. Access control mechanisms need to be deployed to provide guarantee that the unauthorized users cannot access the multicast content. In this paper, we present a topology aware key management and distribution scheme for secure overlay multicast over MANET to address node mobility related issues for multicast key management. We use overlay approach for key distribution and our objective is to keep communication overhead low for key management and distribution. We also incorporate reliability using explicit acknowledgments with the key distribution scheme. Through simulations we show that the proposed key management scheme has low communication overhead for rekeying and improves the reliability of key distribution.
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Layer-wise, distance-dependent orientational relaxation of water confined in reverse micelles (RM) is studied using theoretical and computational tools. We use both a newly constructed ``spins on a ring'' (SOR) Ising-type model (with Shore-Zwanzig rotational dynamics) and atomistic simulations with explicit water. Our study explores the effect of reverse micelle size and role of intermolecular correlations, compromised by the presence of a highly polar surface, on the distance (from the interface) dependence of water relaxation. The ``spins on a ring'' model can capture some aspects of distance dependence of relaxation, such as acceleration of orientational relaxation at intermediate layers. In atomistic simulations, layer-wise decomposition of hydrogen bond formation pattern clearly reveals that hydrogen bond arrangement of water at a certain distance away from the surface can remain frustrated due to the interaction with the polar surface head groups. This layer-wise analysis also reveals the presence of a non-monotonic slow relaxation component which can be attributed to this frustration effect and which is accentuated in small to intermediate size RMs. For large size RMs, the long time component decreases monotonically from the interface to the interior of the RMs with slowest relaxation observed at the interface. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4732095]
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Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been found to be a robust tool to model many non-linear hydrological processes. The present study aims at evaluating the performance of ANN in simulating and predicting ground water levels in the uplands of a tropical coastal riparian wetland. The study involves comparison of two network architectures, Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) trained under five algorithms namely Levenberg Marquardt algorithm, Resilient Back propagation algorithm, BFGS Quasi Newton algorithm, Scaled Conjugate Gradient algorithm, and Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm by simulating the water levels in a well in the study area. The study is analyzed in two cases-one with four inputs to the networks and two with eight inputs to the networks. The two networks-five algorithms in both the cases are compared to determine the best performing combination that could simulate and predict the process satisfactorily. Ad Hoc (Trial and Error) method is followed in optimizing network structure in all cases. On the whole, it is noticed from the results that the Artificial Neural Networks have simulated and predicted the water levels in the well with fair accuracy. This is evident from low values of Normalized Root Mean Square Error and Relative Root Mean Square Error and high values of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index and Correlation Coefficient (which are taken as the performance measures to calibrate the networks) calculated after the analysis. On comparison of ground water levels predicted with those at the observation well, FFNN trained with Fletcher Reeves Conjugate Gradient algorithm taken four inputs has outperformed all other combinations.
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We consider the problem of secure communication in mobile Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). Achieving security in WSNs requires robust encryption and authentication standards among the sensor nodes. Severe resources constraints in typical Wireless Sensor nodes hinder them in achieving key agreements. It is proved from past studies that many notable key management schemes do not work well in sensor networks due to their limited capacities. The idea of key predistribution is not feasible considering the fact that the network could scale to millions. We prove a novel algorithm that provides robust and secure communication channel in WSNs. Our Double Encryption with Validation Time (DEV) using Key Management Protocol algorithm works on the basis of timed sessions within which a secure secret key remains valid. A mobile node is used to bootstrap and exchange secure keys among communicating pairs of nodes. Analysis and simulation results show that the performance of the DEV using Key Management Protocol Algorithm is better than the SEV scheme and other related work.
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For necessary goods like water, under supply constraints, fairness considerations lead to negative externalities. The objective of this paper is to design an infinite horizon contract or relational contract (a type of long-term contract) that ensures self-enforcing (instead of court-enforced) behaviour by the agents to mitigate the externality due to fairness issues. In this contract, the consumer is induced to consume at firm-supply level using the threat of higher fair price for future time periods. The pricing mechanism, computed in this paper, internalizes the externality and is shown to be economically efficient and provides revenue sufficiency.
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An analytical solution to describe the transient temperature distribution in a geothermal reservoir in response to injection of cold water is presented. The reservoir is composed of a confined aquifer, sandwiched between rocks of different thermo-geological properties. The heat transport processes considered are advection, longitudinal conduction in the geothermal aquifer, and the conductive heat transfer to the underlying and overlying rocks of different geological properties. The one-dimensional heat transfer equation has been solved using the Laplace transform with the assumption of constant density and thermal properties of both rock and fluid. Two simple solutions are derived afterwards, first neglecting the longitudinal conductive heat transport and then heat transport to confining rocks. Results show that heat loss to the confining rock layers plays a vital role in slowing down the cooling of the reservoir. The influence of some parameters, e.g. the volumetric injection rate, the longitudinal thermal conductivity and the porosity of the porous media, on the transient heat transport phenomenon is judged by observing the variation of the transient temperature distribution with different values of the parameters. The effects of injection rate and thermal conductivity have been found to be profound on the results.
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A model has been developed to simulate the foam characteristics obtained, when chemical (water) and physical (Freon) blowing agents are used together for the formation of polyurethane foams. The model considers the rate of reaction, the consequent rise in temperature of the reaction mixture, nucleation of bubbles, and mass transfer of CO2 and Freon to them till the time of gelation. The model is able to explain the experimental results available in literature. It further predicts that the nucleation period gets reduced with increase in water (at constant Freon content), whereas with increase in Freon (at constant water) concentration nucleation period decreases marginally leading to narrower bubble-size distribution. By the use of uniform sized nuclei added initially, the model predicts that the bubble-size distribution can be made independent of the rate of homogeneous nucleation and can, thus, offer an extra parameter for its control. (C) 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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Polyurethane foams with multimodal cell distribution exhibit superior mechanical and thermal properties. A technique for generating bimodal bubble size distribution exists in the literature, but it uses supercritical conditions. In the present work, an alternative based on milder operating conditions is proposed. It is a modification of reaction injection molding (RIM), using reactants already seeded with bubbles. The number density of the seeds determines if two nucleating events can occur. A bimodal bubble size distribution is obtained when this happens A mathematical model is used to test this hypothesis by simulating water blown free rise polyurethane foams. The effects of initial concentration of bubbles, temperature of the reactants, and the weight fraction of water are studied. The study reveals that for certain concentrations of initial number of bubbles, when initial temperature and weight fraction of water are high, it is possible to obtain a second nucleation event, leading to bimodal bubble size distribution.