Nonparametric bounds on the returns to language skills

This paper applies the theoretical literature on nonparametric bounds ontreatment effects to the estimation of how limited English proficiency (LEP)affects wages and employment opportunities for Hispanic workers in theUnited States. I analyze the identifying power of several weak assumptionson treatment response and selection, and stress the interactions between LEPand education, occupation and immigration status. I show that thecombination of two weak but credible assumptions provides informative upperbounds on the returns to language skills for certain subgroups of thepopulation. Adding age at arrival as a monotone instrumental variable alsoprovides informative lower bounds.

Selection of artificial hosts for oviposition by wild Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart) (Diptera, Tephritidae): influence of adult food and effect of experience

Several factors influence the selection of oviposition substrates by insects. The aim of the present work was to find answers to the following questions related to the oviposition behavior of Anastrepha obliqua. Can carbohydrates (glucose or sucrose) present in the adult diet have influence on the female preference for an oviposition substrate with similar composition? Can the previous experience with a host containing one of mentioned carbohydrates interfere in further selection of oviposition substrates? The results showed that the kind of carbohydrate present in the adult diet did not affect the female preference for an artificial oviposition substrate, neither when it was presented by itself nor in combination with brewer's yeast. The effect of experience in the oviposition behavior was observed when there was a previous contact with artificial oviposition substrates containing yeast and sucrose. The data are discussed in terms of the behavioral plasticity presented by this species in relation to feeding and oviposition behaviors.

Dynamic adverse selection and debt

This paper argues that the strategic use of debt favours the revelationof information in dynamic adverse selection problems. Our argument is basedon the idea that debt is a credible commitment to end long term relationships.Consequently, debt encourages a privately informed party to disclose itsinformation at early stages of a relationship. We illustrate our pointwith the financing decision of a monopolist selling a good to a buyerwhose valuation is private information. A high level of (renegotiable)debt, by increasing the scope for liquidation, may induce the highvaluation buyer to buy early at a high price and thus increase themonopolist's expected payoff. By affecting the buyer's strategy, it mayreduce the probability of excessive liquidation. We investigate theconsequences of good durability and we examine the way debt mayalleviate the ratchet effect.

Long-run selection and the work ethic

That individuals contribute in social dilemma interactions even when contributing is costly is a well-established observation in the experimental literature. Since a contributor is always strictly worse off than a non-contributor the question is raised if an intrinsic motivation to contribute can survive in an evolutionary setting. Using recent results on deterministic approximation of stochastic evolutionary dynamics we give conditions for equilibria with a positive number of contributors to be selected in the long run.

Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).

Optimal contracts, adverse selection and social preferences: An experiment

It has long been standard in agency theory to search for incentive-compatible mechanisms on the assumption that people care only about their own material wealth. However, this assumption is clearly refuted by numerous experiments, and we feel that it may be useful to consider nonpecuniary utility in mechanism design and contract theory. Accordingly, we devise an experiment to explore optimal contracts in an adverse-selection context. A principal proposes one of three contract menus, each of which offers a choice of two incentive-compatible contracts, to two agents whose types are unknown to the principal. The agents know the set of possible menus, and choose to either accept one of the two contracts offered in the proposed menu or to reject the menu altogether; a rejection by either agent leads to lower (and equal) reservation payoffs for all parties. While all three possible menus favor the principal, they do so to varying degrees. We observe numerous rejections of the more lopsided menus, and approach an equilibrium where one of the more equitable contract menus (which one depends on the reservation payoffs) is proposed and agents accept a contract, selecting actions according to their types. Behavior is largely consistent with all recent models of social preferences, strongly suggesting there is value in considering nonpecuniary utility in agency theory.

KIT mutations and dose selection for imatinib in patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumours.

A recent randomized EORTC phase III trial, comparing two doses of imatinib in patients with advanced gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs), reported dose dependency for progression-free survival. The current analysis of that study aimed to assess if tumour mutational status correlates with clinical response to imatinib. Pre-treatment samples of GISTs from 377 patients enrolled in phase III study were analyzed for mutations of KIT or PDGFRA by combination of D-HPLC and direct sequencing of tumour genomic DNA. Mutation types were correlated with patients' survival data. The presence of exon 9-activating mutations in KIT was the strongest adverse prognostic factor for response to imatinib, increasing the relative risk of progression by 171% (P<0.0001) and the relative risk of death by 190% (P<0.0001) when compared with KIT exon 11 mutants. Similarly, the relative risk of progression was increased by 108% (P<0.0001) and the relative risk of death by 76% (P=0.028) in patients without detectable KIT or PDGFRA mutations. In patients whose tumours expressed an exon 9 KIT oncoprotein, treatment with the high-dose regimen resulted in a significantly superior progression-free survival (P=0.0013), with a reduction of the relative risk of 61%. We conclude that tumour genotype is of major prognostic significance for progression-free survival and overall survival in patients treated with imatinib for advanced GISTs. Our findings suggest the need for differential treatment of patients with GISTs, with KIT exon 9 mutant patients benefiting the most from the 800 mg daily dose of the drug.

Adaptive model selection using empirical complexities

Given $n$ independent replicates of a jointly distributed pair $(X,Y)\in {\cal R}^d \times {\cal R}$, we wish to select from a fixed sequence of model classes ${\cal F}_1, {\cal F}_2, \ldots$ a deterministic prediction rule $f: {\cal R}^d \to {\cal R}$ whose risk is small. We investigate the possibility of empirically assessingthe {\em complexity} of each model class, that is, the actual difficulty of the estimation problem within each class. The estimated complexities are in turn used to define an adaptive model selection procedure, which is based on complexity penalized empirical risk.The available data are divided into two parts. The first is used to form an empirical cover of each model class, and the second is used to select a candidate rule from each cover based on empirical risk. The covering radii are determined empirically to optimize a tight upper bound on the estimation error. An estimate is chosen from the list of candidates in order to minimize the sum of class complexity and empirical risk. A distinguishing feature of the approach is that the complexity of each model class is assessed empirically, based on the size of its empirical cover.Finite sample performance bounds are established for the estimates, and these bounds are applied to several non-parametric estimation problems. The estimates are shown to achieve a favorable tradeoff between approximation and estimation error, and to perform as well as if the distribution-dependent complexities of the model classes were known beforehand. In addition, it is shown that the estimate can be consistent,and even possess near optimal rates of convergence, when each model class has an infinite VC or pseudo dimension.For regression estimation with squared loss we modify our estimate to achieve a faster rate of convergence.

Expression of apoptosis and survival genes in human memory T cell populations

RESUME Introduction: Les cellules T mémoires humaines sont classées en trois sous-populations sur la base de l'expression d'un marqueur de surface cellulaire, CD45RA, et du récepteur aux chimiokines, CCR7. Ces sous-populations, nommées cellules mémoires centrales (TcM), mémoires effectrices (TEM) et mémoires effectrices terminales (ITEM), ont des rôles fonctionnels distincts, ainsi que des capacités de prolifération et de régénération différentes. Cependant, la génération de ces différences reste encore mal comprise et on ignore les mécanismes moléculaires impliqués. Matériaux et Méthodes: Des cellules mononucléaires humaines du sang périphérique ont été séparées par cytométrie de flux selon leur expression de CD4, CD8, CD45RA et CCR7 en sous-populations de cellules CD4+ ou CD8+ naïves, TcM, TEM ou ITEM. Dans chacune de ces sous-populations, 14 gènes impliqués dans l'apoptose, la survie ou la capacité proliférative des cellules T ont été quantifiés par RT-PCR en temps réel, relativement à l'expression d'un gène de référence endogène. L'ARN provenant de 450 cellules T a été utilisé par gène et par sous-population. Les gènes analysés (cibles) comprenaient des gènes de survie (BAFF, APRIL, BAFF-R, BCMA, TACI, IL-15Rα, IL-7Rα), des gènes anti-apoptotiques (Bcl-2, BclxL, FLIP), des gènes pro-apoptotiques (Bad, Bax, Fast) et le gène anti-prolifératif, Tob. A l'aide de la méthode comparative delta-delta-CT, le taux d'expression des gènes cibles de chaque sous-population des cellules T mémoires CD4+ et CD8+, à été comparée à leur taux d'expression dans les cellules T naïves CD4+ et CD8+. Résultats: Dans les cellules CD8+, les gènes pro-apoptotiques Bax et Fast étaient surexprimés dans toutes les sous-populations mémoires, tandis que l'expression des facteurs anti-apoptotiques et de survie comme Bcl-2, APRIL et BAFF-R, étaient diminués. Ces deux tendances étaient particulièrement accentuées dans les sous-groupes des cellules mémoires TEM et TTEM. A noter que malgré le fait que leur expression était également diminuée dans les autres cellules mémoires, le facteur de survie IL-7Ra, était sélectivement surexprimé dans la sous-population de cellules TcM et l'expression d'IL-15Ra était sélectivement augmentée dans les TEM. Dans les cellules CD4+, le taux d'expression des gènes analysés était plus variable entre les sujets étudiés que dans les cellules CD8+, ne permettant pas de définir un profil d'expression spécifique. L'expression du gène de survie BAFF par contre, a été significativement augmentée dans toutes les sous-populations mémoire CD4+. Il en va de même pour l'expression d' APRIL et de BAFF-R, bien que dans moindre degré. A remarquer que l'expression du facteur anti-apoptotique Fast a été observée uniquement dans la souspopulation des TTEM. Discussion et Conclusions: Cette étude montre une nette différence entre les cellules CD8+ et CD4+, en ce qui concerne les profils d'expression des gènes impliqués dans la survie et l'apoptose des cellules T mémoires. Ceci pourrait impliquer une régulation cellulaire homéostatique distincte dans ces deux compartiments de cellules T mémoires. Dans les cellules CD8+ l'expression d'un nombre de gènes impliqués dans la survie et la protection de l'apoptose semblerait être diminuée dans les populations TEM et TTEM en comparaison à celle des sous-populations naïves et TEM, tandis que l'expression des gènes pro-apoptotiques semblerait être augmentée. Comme ceci paraît être plus accentué dans les TTEM, cela pourrait indiquer une plus grande disposition à l'apopotose dans les populations CCR7- (effectrices) et une perte de survie parallèlement à l'acquisition de capacités effectrices. Ceci parlerait en faveur d'un modèle de différentiation linéaire dans les cellules CD8+. De plus, l'augmentation sélective de l'expression d'IL-7Ra observée dans le sous-groupe de cellules mémoires TEM, et d'IL-15Ra dans celui des TEM, pourrait indiquer un moyen de sélection pour des réponses immunitaires mémoires à long terme par une réponse distincte à ces cytokines. Dans les cellules CD4+ par contre, aucun profil d'expression n'a pu être déterminé; les résultats suggèrent même une résistance relative à l'apoptose de la part des cellules mémoires. Ceci pourrait favoriser l'existence d'un modèle de différentiation plus flexible avec des possibilités d'interaction multiples. Ainsi, la surexpression sélective de BAFF, APRIL et BAFF-R dans les sous-populations individuelles des cellules mémoires pourrait être un indice de l'interaction de ces sous-groupes avec des cellules B. ABSTRACT Introduction: Based on their surface expression of the CD45 isoform and of the CCR7 chemokine receptor, memory T cells have been divided into the following three subsets: central memory (TAM), effector memory (TEM) and terminal effector memory (ITEM). Distinct functional roles and different proliferative and regenerative capacities have been attributed to each one of these subpopulations. The molecular mechanisms underlying these differences; however, remain poorly understood. Materials and Methods: According to their expression of CD4, CD8, CD45RA and CCR7, human peripheral blood mononuclear cells were sorted by flow-cytometry into CD4+ or CD8+ naïve, TAM, TEM and ITEM subsets. Using real-time PCR, the expression of 14 genes known to be involved in apoptotis, survival or proliferation of T cells was quantified separately in each individual subset, relative to an endogenous reference gene. The RNA equivalent of 450 T cells was used for each gene and subset. The target gene panel included the survival genes BAFF, APRIL, BAFF-R, BCMA, TACI, IL-15Rα and IL-7Rα, the anti-apoptotic genes Bcl2, Bcl-xL and FLIP, the pro-apoptotic genes Bad, Bax and Fast, as well as the antiproliferative gene Tob. Using the comparative CT-method, the expression of the target genes in the three memory T cell subsets of both CD4+ and CD8+ T cell populations was compared to their expression in the naïve T cells. Results: In CD8+ cells, the pro-apoptotic factors Bax and Fast were found to be upregulated in all memory T cell subsets, whereas the survival and anti-apoptotic factors Bcl-2, APRIL and BAFF-R were downregulated. These tendencies were most accentuated in TEM and TTEM subsets. Even though the survival factor IL-7Rα was also downregulated in these subsets, interestingly, it was selectively upregulated in the CD8+ TAM subset. Similarly, IL-15Rαexpression was shown to be selectively upregulated in the CD8+ TEM subset. In CD4+ cells, the expression levels of the analyzed genes showed a greater inter-individual variability than in CD8+ cells, thus suggesting the absence of any particular expression pattern for CD4+ memory T cells. However, the survival factor BAFF was found to be significantly upregulated in all CD4+ memory T cell subsets, as was also the expression of APRIL and BAFF-R, although to a lesser extent. Furthermore, it was noted that the pro-apoptotic gene Fast was only expressed in the TTEM CD4+ subset. Discussion and Conclusions: Genes involved in apoptosis and survival in human memory T cells have been shown to be expressed differently in CD8+ cells as compared to CD4+ cells, suggesting a distinct regulation of cell homeostasis in these two memory T cell compartments. The present study suggests that, in CD8+ T cells, the expression of various survival and antiapoptotic genes is downregulated in TEM and TTEM subsets, while the expression of proapoptotic genes is upregulated in comparison to the naïve and the TAM populations. These characteristics, potentially translating to a greater susceptibility to apoptosis in the CCR7- (effector) memory populations, are accentuated in the TTEM population, suggesting a loss of survival in parallel to the acquisition of effector capacities. This speaks in favour of a linear differentiation model in CD8+ T memory cells. Moreover, the observed selectively increased expression of IL-7Rα in CD8+ TAM cells - as that of IL-15Rα in CD8+ TEM cells -suggest that differential responsiveness to cytokines could confer a selection bias for distinct long-term memory cell responses. Relative to the results for CD8+ T cells, those for CD4+ T cells seem to indicate a certain resistance of the memory subsets to apoptosis, suggesting the possibility of a more flexible differentiation model with multiple checkpoints and potential interaction of CD4+ memory cells with other cells. Thus, the selective upregulation of BAFF, APRIL and BAFF-R in individual memory subsets could imply an interaction of these subsets with B cells.

Revealed preference and indifferent selection

It is shown that preferences can be constructed from observed choice behavior in a way that is robust to indifferent selection (i.e., the agent is indifferent between two alternatives but, nevertheless, is only observed selecting one of them). More precisely, a suggestion by Savage (1954) to reveal indifferent selection by considering small monetary perturbations of alternatives is formalized and generalized to a purely topological framework: references over an arbitrary topological space can be uniquely derived from observed behavior under the assumptions that they are continuous and nonsatiated and that a strictly preferred alternative is always chosen, and indifferent selection is then characterized by discontinuity in choice behavior. Two particular cases are then analyzed: monotonic preferences over a partially ordered set, and preferences representable by a continuous pseudo-utility function.

Local selection rules that can determine specific pathways of DNA unknotting by type II DNA topoisomerases.

We performed numerical simulations of DNA chains to understand how local geometry of juxtaposed segments in knotted DNA molecules can guide type II DNA topoisomerases to perform very efficient relaxation of DNA knots. We investigated how the various parameters defining the geometry of inter-segmental juxtapositions at sites of inter-segmental passage reactions mediated by type II DNA topoisomerases can affect the topological consequences of these reactions. We confirmed the hypothesis that by recognizing specific geometry of juxtaposed DNA segments in knotted DNA molecules, type II DNA topoisomerases can maintain the steady-state knotting level below the topological equilibrium. In addition, we revealed that a preference for a particular geometry of juxtaposed segments as sites of strand-passage reaction enables type II DNA topoisomerases to select the most efficient pathway of relaxation of complex DNA knots. The analysis of the best selection criteria for efficient relaxation of complex knots revealed that local structures in random configurations of a given knot type statistically behave as analogous local structures in ideal geometric configurations of the corresponding knot type.

A model of collateral, investment and adverse selection

This paper characterizes the relationship between entrepreneurial wealth and aggregate investmentunder adverse selection. Its main finding is that such a relationship need not bemonotonic. In particular, three results emerge from the analysis: (i) pooling equilibria, in whichinvestment is independent of entrepreneurial wealth, are more likely to arise when entrepreneurialwealth is relatively low; (ii) separating equilibria, in which investment is increasing inentrepreneurial wealth, are most likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively highand; (iii) for a given interest rate, an increase in entrepreneurial wealth may generate a discontinuousfall in investment.

Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Granulomatosis-associated common variable immunodeficiency disorder: a case-control study versus sarcoidosis.

The aim of the present study was to investigate to what extent interstitial lung disease (ILD) in common variable immunodeficiency disorder (CVID)-associated granulomatous disease (GD) is similar to pulmonary sarcoidosis 20 patients with CVID/GD were included in a retrospective study conducted by the Groupe Sarcoïdose Francophone. Medical records were centralised. Patients were compared with 60 controls with sarcoidosis. Clinical examination showed more frequent crackles in patients than controls (45% versus 1.7%, respectively; p<0.001). On thoracic computed tomography scans, nodules (often multiple and with smooth margins), air bronchograms and halo signs were more frequent in patients than controls (80% versus 42%, respectively; p=0.004) as well as bronchiectasis (65% versus 23%, respectively; p<0.001). The micronodule distribution was perilymphatic in 100% of controls and in 42% of patients (p<0.001). Bronchoalveolar lavage analysis showed lower T-cell CD4/CD8 ratios in patients than in controls (mean±sd 1.6±1.1 versus 5.3±4, respectively; p<0.01). On pathological analysis, nodules and consolidations corresponded to granulomatous lesions with or without lymphocytic disorders in most cases. Mortality was higher in patients than controls (30% versus 0%, respectively) and resulted from common variable immunodeficiency complications. ILD in CVID/GD presents a specific clinical picture and evolution that are markedly different from those of sarcoidosis.

Variable phenotypic expressivity in a Swiss family with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa due to a T494M mutation in the PRPF3 gene.

PURPOSE: To characterize the clinical, psychophysical, and electrophysiological phenotypes in a five-generation Swiss family with dominantly inherited retinitis pigmentosa caused by a T494M mutation in the Precursor mRNA-Processing factor 3 (PRPF3) gene, and to relate the phenotype to the underlying genetic mutation. METHODS: Eleven affected patients were ascertained for phenotypic and genotypic characterization. Ophthalmologic evaluations included color vision testing, Goldmann perimetry, and digital fundus photography. Some patients had autofluorescence imaging, Optical Coherence Tomography, and ISCEV-standard full-field electroretinography. All affected patients had genetic testing. RESULTS: The age of onset of night blindness and the severity of the progression of the disease varied between members of the family. Some patients reported early onset of night blindness at age three, with subsequent severe deterioration of visual acuity, which was 0.4 in the best eye after their fifties. The second group of patients had a later onset of night blindness, in the mid-twenties, with a milder disease progression and a visual acuity of 0.8 at age 70. Fundus autofluorescence imaging and electrophysiological and visual field abnormalities also showed some degree of varying phenotypes. The autofluorescence imaging showed a large high-density ring bilaterally. Myopia (range: -0.75 to -8) was found in 10/11 affected subjects. Fundus findings showed areas of atrophy along the arcades. A T494M change was found in exon 11 of the PRPF3 gene. The change segregates with the disease in the family. CONCLUSIONS: A mutation in the PRPF3 gene is rare compared to other genes causing autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa (ADRP). Although a T494M change has been reported, the family in our study is the first with variable expressivity. Mutations in the PRPF3 gene can cause a variable ADRP phenotype, unlike in the previously described Danish, English, and Japanese families. Our report, based on one of the largest affected pedigree, provides a better understanding as to the phenotype/genotype description of ADRP caused by a PRPF3 mutation.