Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

A System Dynamics-Based Simulation Experiment for Testing Mental Model and Performance Effects of Using the Balanced Scorecard

This study develops a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the balanced scorecard approach by means of a system dynamics and feedback learning perspective. Presumably, the balanced scorecard leads to a better understanding of context, allowing managers to externalize and improve their mental models. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of the balanced scorecard approach on mental models and performance. A test based on a simulation experiment that uses a system dynamics model is performed. The experiment included three types of parameters: financial indicators; balanced scorecard indicators; and balanced scorecard indicators with the aid of a strategy map review. Two out of the three hypotheses were confirmed. It was concluded that a strategy map review positively influences mental model similarity, and mental model similarity positively influences performance.

Capacity Enhancement Using MIMO Antenna Arrays in Realistic Macro-Cellular Urban Environment

In MIMO systems the antenna array configuration in the BS and MS has a large influence on the available channel capacity. In this paper, we first introduce a new Frequency Selective (FS) MIMO framework for macro-cells in a realistic urban environment. The MIMO channel is built over a previously developed directional channel model, which considers the terrain and clutter information in the cluster, line-of-sight and link loss calculations. Next, MIMO configuration characteristics are investigated in order to maximize capacity, mainly the number of antennas, inter-antenna spacing and SNR impact. Channel and capacity simulation results are presented for the city of Lisbon, Portugal, using different antenna configurations. Two power allocations schemes are considered, uniform distribution and FS spatial water-filling. The results suggest optimized MIMO configurations, considering the antenna array size limitations, specially at the MS side.

A study on security grade assignment model for mobile users in urban computing

The relation between the information/knowledge expression and the physical expression can be involved as one of items for an ambient intelligent computing [2],[3]. Moreover, because there are so many contexts around user/spaces during a user movement, all appplcation which are using AmI for users are based on the relation between user devices and environments. In these situations, it is possible that the AmI may output the wrong result from unreliable contexts by attackers. Recently, establishing a server have been utilizes, so finding secure contexts and make contexts of higher security level for save communication have been given importance. Attackers try to put their devices on the expected path of all users in order to obtain users informationillegally or they may try to broadcast their SPAMS to users. This paper is an extensionof [11] which studies the Security Grade Assignment Model (SGAM) to set Cyber-Society Organization (CSO).

A sensitivity study of the WRF model in wind simulation for an area of high wind energy

The performance of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model in wind simulation was evaluated under different numerical and physical options for an area of Portugal, located in complex terrain and characterized by its significant wind energy resource. The grid nudging and integration time of the simulations were the tested numerical options. Since the goal is to simulate the near-surface wind, the physical parameterization schemes regarding the boundary layer were the ones under evaluation. Also, the influences of the local terrain complexity and simulation domain resolution on the model results were also studied. Data from three wind measuring stations located within the chosen area were compared with the model results, in terms of Root Mean Square Error, Standard Deviation Error and Bias. Wind speed histograms, occurrences and energy wind roses were also used for model evaluation. Globally, the model accurately reproduced the local wind regime, despite a significant underestimation of the wind speed. The wind direction is reasonably simulated by the model especially in wind regimes where there is a clear dominant sector, but in the presence of low wind speeds the characterization of the wind direction (observed and simulated) is very subjective and led to higher deviations between simulations and observations. Within the tested options, results show that the use of grid nudging in simulations that should not exceed an integration time of 2 days is the best numerical configuration, and the parameterization set composed by the physical schemes MM5–Yonsei University–Noah are the most suitable for this site. Results were poorer in sites with higher terrain complexity, mainly due to limitations of the terrain data supplied to the model. The increase of the simulation domain resolution alone is not enough to significantly improve the model performance. Results suggest that error minimization in the wind simulation can be achieved by testing and choosing a suitable numerical and physical configuration for the region of interest together with the use of high resolution terrain data, if available.

Severity and exposure associated with tsunami actions in urban waterfronts: the case of Lisbon, Portugal

The Tagus estuary is bordered by the largest metropolitan area in Portugal, the Lisbon capital city council. It has suffered the impact of several major tsunamis in the past, as shown by a recent revision of the catalogue of tsunamis that struck the Portuguese coast over the past two millennia. Hence, the exposure of populations and infrastructure established along the riverfront comprises a critical concern for the civil protection services. The main objectives of this work are to determine critical inundation areas in Lisbon and to quantify the associated severity through a simple index derived from the local maximum of momentum flux per unit mass and width. The employed methodology is based on the mathematical modelling of a tsunami propagating along the estuary, resembling the one occurred on the 1 November of 1755 that followed the 8.5 M-w Great Lisbon Earthquake. The employed simulation tool was STAV-2D, a shallow-flow solver coupled with conservation equations for fine solid phases, and now featuring the novelty of discrete Lagrangian tracking of large debris. Different sets of initial conditions were studied, combining distinct tidal, atmospheric and fluvial scenarios, so that the civil protection services were provided with comprehensive information to devise public warning and alert systems and post-event mitigation intervention. For the most severe scenario, the obtained results have shown a maximum inundation extent of 1.29 km at the AlcA cent ntara valley and water depths reaching nearly 10 m across Lisbon's riverfront.

Urban land use and land cover change analysis and modeling a case study area Malatya, Turkey

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe: towards understanding social unrest in Europe

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

A spatial multicriteria model for urban accessibility mapping

Accessibility is nowadays an important issue for the development of cities. It is seen as a priority in order toguarantee equal access to fundamental rights, to improve the quality of life of citizens and to ensure that everyone, regardless of age, mobility or ability, have equal access to all the resources and benefits cities have to offer. Consequently, factors closely related to the accessibility have gained a higher relevance for identifying and assessing the location of urban facilities. The main goal of the paper is to present an accessibility evaluation model applied in Santarém, in Brazil, a city located midway between the larger cities of Belem and Manaus. The research instruments, sampling method and data analysis proposed for mapping urban accessibility are described. Daily activities were used to identify and group key destinations. The model was implemented within a geographic information system and integrates the individualâ s perspective through the definition of each key destination weight, reflecting their significance for daily activities in the urban area. Accessibility to key destinations was mapped over 24 districts of the city of Santarém. The results of this model application can support city administration decision-making for new investments in order to improve urban quality of life.

Copper toxicity for Scinax ruber and Rhinella granulosa (Amphibia: Anura) of the Amazon: Potential of Biotic Ligand Model to predict toxicity in urban streams

In the last years many populations of anurans have declined and extinctions have been recorded. They were related to environmental pollution, changes of land use and emerging diseases. The main objective of this study was to determine copper sensitivity of the anuran of the Amazon Rhinella granulosa and Scinax ruber tadpoles at stage 25 and Scinax ruber eggs exposed for 96 h to copper concentrations ranging from 15 µg Cu L-1 to 94 µg Cu L-1. LC50 at 96 h of Rhinella granulosa Gosner 25, Scinax ruber Gosner 25 and Scinax ruber eggs in black water of the Amazon were 23.48, 36.37 and 50.02 µg Cu L-1, respectively. The Biotic Ligand Model was used to predict the LC50 values for these species and it can be considered a promising tool for these tropical species and water conditions. Copper toxicity depends on water physical-chemical composition and on the larval stage of the tadpoles. The Gosner stage 19-21 (related to the appearance of external gills) is the most vulnerable and the egg stage is the most resistant. In case of contamination by copper, the natural streams must have special attention, since copper is more bioavailable.

An integrated model for simulation of construction phasing of arch concrete dams

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Civil Engineering

Modelo de Gestion Intersectorial para la formalización de villas, a partir de la revisión de normativa urbana, marco jurídico-político, y la innovación tecnológica de los recursos. Intersectorial management model for the formality of the illegal growth settles beginning from the revision of the urban norm, political - juridical, and the technological innovation of the resources.

El Proyecto que se presenta en esta convocatoria está relacionado con el diseño y desarrollo de procesos de gestión intersectorial para la reconversión formal del hábitat en asentamientos de crecimiento espontáneo e ilegal a partir de la la revisión de marcos legales y normativos respecto del derecho al uso de suelo urbano y la seguridad jurídica en la tenencia (regulación dominial) bajo un enfoque sustentable de los Derechos Humanos (DDHH) como así también a partir de la innovación tecnológica de los recursos para el mejoramiento habitacional en el marco de los aportes relacionados con la Responsabilidad Social Empresarial (RSE) .La originalidad, en este caso, se basa en la exploración de nuevos procesos de gestión mixta en los que intervienen diversos actores: ESTADO, SOCIEDAD, EMPRESA y COMUNIDAD CIENTIFICA, configurando un circuito intersectorial de gestión, capacitación y producción de hábitat que respondan al fortalecimiento del desarrollo comunitario, entendido como desarrollo económico con inclusión social y urbana.Los objetivos están relacionados con el fortalecimiento de la producción integral del hábitat social procurando el desarrollo genuino de las comunidades a partir de la expansión de sus capacidades y sus derechos.El presente proyecto de investigación explorará la producción de hábitat y de ciudad informal procurando reconvertirla hacia un modelo de gestión sustentable (normativo y tecnológico), basado en la necesidad de producir ciudadanía digna a partir de la construcción formal de hábitat.La propuesta del proyecto supone la participación intersectorial en la planificación formal y en la toma de decisiones para una inclusión social y económica, en el marco de un modelo de desarrollo de génesis inclusor, constituyéndose en un avance de conocimientos del propio campo disciplinar (hábitat) como así también de otros campos afines a los mismos (jurídico- social - económico- productivo- político ).

vertex effect in polycrystalline materials : simulation, a macroscopic model, and structural application

Polycrystal Plasticity, Yield-Vertex, Corner, Vertex-Effect, Microscale, Macroscale, Multiaxial, Torsional Buckling, Cruciform Column

Reduced model for flow simulation in the burner region of lime shaft kilns

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2010