970 resultados para Univariate Analysis box-jenkins methodology


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A simplified (without phase modulator) scheme of a black box optical regenerator is proposed, where an appropriate nonlinear propagation is used to enhance regeneration. Applying semi-theoretical models the authors optimise and demonstrate feasibility of error-free long distance transmission at 40 Gbit/s.

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The best results in the application of computer science systems to automatic translation are obtained in word processing when texts pertain to specific thematic areas, with structures well defined and a concise and limited lexicon. In this article we present a plan of systematic work for the analysis and generation of language applied to the field of pharmaceutical leaflet, a type of document characterized by format rigidity and precision in the use of lexicon. We propose a solution based in the use of one interlingua as language pivot between source and target languages; we are considering Spanish and Arab languages in this case of application.

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* Work supported by the Lithuanian State Science and Studies Foundation.

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The European Union continues to exert a large influence on the direction of member states energy policy. The 2020 targets for renewable energy integration have had significant impact on the operation of current power systems, forcing a rapid change from fossil fuel dominated systems to those with high levels of renewable power. Additionally, the overarching aim of an internal energy market throughout Europe has and will continue to place importance on multi-jurisdictional co-operation regarding energy supply. Combining these renewable energy and multi-jurisdictional supply goals results in a complicated multi-vector energy system, where the understanding of interactions between fossil fuels, renewable energy, interconnection and economic power system operation is increasingly important. This paper provides a novel and systematic methodology to fully understand the changing dynamics of interconnected energy systems from a gas and power perspective. A fully realistic unit commitment and economic dispatch model of the 2030 power systems in Great Britain and Ireland, combined with a representative gas transmission energy flow model is developed. The importance of multi-jurisdictional integrated energy system operation in one of the most strategically important renewable energy regions is demonstrated.

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This paper introduces a new stochastic clustering methodology devised for the analysis of categorized or sorted data. The methodology reveals consumers' common category knowledge as well as individual differences in using this knowledge for classifying brands in a designated product class. A small study involving the categorization of 28 brands of U.S. automobiles is presented where the results of the proposed methodology are compared with those obtained from KMEANS clustering. Finally, directions for future research are discussed.

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Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPMr). To assess the predictive validity of the model, the data is split into an estimation and a prediction data set using two data splitting approaches and data preparation techniques (clustering and outlier detection) are analysed. The sensitivity analysis, being part of the identifiability analysis, showed that some model parameters were significantly more sensitive than others. The application of the determined optimal parameter values was shown to succesfully equilibrate the model biases among the individual streets and species. It was as well shown that the frequentist approach applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified.

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Les courriels Spams (courriels indésirables ou pourriels) imposent des coûts annuels extrêmement lourds en termes de temps, d’espace de stockage et d’argent aux utilisateurs privés et aux entreprises. Afin de lutter efficacement contre le problème des spams, il ne suffit pas d’arrêter les messages de spam qui sont livrés à la boîte de réception de l’utilisateur. Il est obligatoire, soit d’essayer de trouver et de persécuter les spammeurs qui, généralement, se cachent derrière des réseaux complexes de dispositifs infectés, ou d’analyser le comportement des spammeurs afin de trouver des stratégies de défense appropriées. Cependant, une telle tâche est difficile en raison des techniques de camouflage, ce qui nécessite une analyse manuelle des spams corrélés pour trouver les spammeurs. Pour faciliter une telle analyse, qui doit être effectuée sur de grandes quantités des courriels non classés, nous proposons une méthodologie de regroupement catégorique, nommé CCTree, permettant de diviser un grand volume de spams en des campagnes, et ce, en se basant sur leur similarité structurale. Nous montrons l’efficacité et l’efficience de notre algorithme de clustering proposé par plusieurs expériences. Ensuite, une approche d’auto-apprentissage est proposée pour étiqueter les campagnes de spam en se basant sur le but des spammeur, par exemple, phishing. Les campagnes de spam marquées sont utilisées afin de former un classificateur, qui peut être appliqué dans la classification des nouveaux courriels de spam. En outre, les campagnes marquées, avec un ensemble de quatre autres critères de classement, sont ordonnées selon les priorités des enquêteurs. Finalement, une structure basée sur le semiring est proposée pour la représentation abstraite de CCTree. Le schéma abstrait de CCTree, nommé CCTree terme, est appliqué pour formaliser la parallélisation du CCTree. Grâce à un certain nombre d’analyses mathématiques et de résultats expérimentaux, nous montrons l’efficience et l’efficacité du cadre proposé.

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Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.), apart from being a functional food rich in carotenoids, vitamins and minerals, is also an important source of phenolic compounds [1 ,2]. As antioxidants, these functional molecules play an important role in the prevention of human pathologies and have many applications in nutraceutical, pharmaceutical and cosmeceutical industries. Therefore, the recovery of added-value phenolic compounds from natural sources, such as tomato surplus or industrial by-products, is highly desirable. Herein, the microwave-assisted extraction of the main phenolic acids and flavonoids from tomato was optimized. A S-Ieve! full factorial Box-Behnken design was implemented and response surface methodology used for analysis. The extraction time (0-20 min), temperature (60-180 "C), ethanol percentage (0-100%), solidlliquid ratio (5-45 g/L) and microwave power (0-400 W) were studied as independent variables. The phenolic profile of the studied tomato variety was initially characterized by HPLC-DAD-ESIIMS [2]. Then, the effect of the different extraction conditions, as defined by the used experimental design, on the target compounds was monitored by HPLC-DAD, using their UV spectra and retention time for identification and a series of calibrations based on external standards for quantification. The proposed model was successfully implemented and statistically validated. The microwave power had no effect on the extraction process. Comparing with the optimal extraction conditions for flavonoids, which demanded a short processing time (2 min), a low temperature (60 "C) and solidlliquid ratio (5 g/L), and pure ethanol, phenolic acids required a longer processing time ( 4.38 min), a higher temperature (145.6 •c) and solidlliquid ratio (45 g/L), and water as extraction solvent. Additionally, the studied tomato variety was highlighted as a source of added-value phenolic acids and flavonoids.

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Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MAT-LAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/(Mentaschi et al., 2016).

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The literature clearly links the quality and capacity of a country’s infrastructure to its economic growth and competitiveness. This thesis analyses the historic national and spatial distribution of investment by the Irish state in its physical networks (water, wastewater and roads) across the 34 local authorities and examines how Ireland is perceived internationally relative to its economic counterparts. An appraisal of the current status and shortcomings of Ireland’s infrastructure is undertaken using key stakeholders from foreign direct investment companies and national policymakers to identify Ireland's infrastructural gaps, along with current challenges in how the country is delivering infrastructure. The output of these interviews identified many issues with how infrastructure decision-making is currently undertaken. This led to an evaluation of how other countries are informing decision-making, and thus this thesis presents a framework of how and why Ireland should embrace a Systems of Systems (SoS) methodology approach to infrastructure decision-making going forward. In undertaking this study a number of other infrastructure challenges were identified: significant political interference in infrastructure decision-making and delivery the need for a national agency to remove the existing ‘silo’ type of mentality to infrastructure delivery how tax incentives can interfere with the market; and their significance. The two key infrastructure gaps identified during the interview process were: the need for government intervention in the rollout of sufficient communication capacity and at a competitive cost outside of Dublin; and the urgent need to address water quality and capacity with approximately 25% of the population currently being served by water of unacceptable quality. Despite considerable investment in its national infrastructure, Ireland’s infrastructure performance continues to trail behind its economic partners in the Eurozone and OECD. Ireland is projected to have the highest growth rate in the euro zone region in 2015 and 2016, albeit that it required a bailout in 2010, and, at the time of writing, is beginning to invest in its infrastructure networks again. This thesis proposes the development and implementation of a SoS approach for infrastructure decision-making which would be based on: existing spatial and capacity data of each of the constituent infrastructure networks; and scenario computation and analysis of alternative drivers eg. Demographic change, economic variability and demand/capacity constraints. The output from such an analysis would provide valuable evidence upon which policy makers and decision makers alike could rely, which has been lacking in historic investment decisions.