The Persistence of Inflation in OECDCountries: a Fractionally Integrated Approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

The Economic Effects of Christian Moralities

This article examines the different influences that Catholicism and Protestantism exert on economically relevant values. It argues that Catholic theology and practice facilitate personal transactions while Protestantism favors values and types of moral and legal enforcement better adapted for impersonal trade. Protestantism may thus be more conducive to economic growth through anonymous exchange while Catholicism may provide better support for personal contracting. Several components of this hypothesis are confirmed using statistical models with data from the 1998 ISSP international survey on religion. These show that Protestants are more trusting of anonymous counter parties, develop more reliable institutions for legal enforcement and are more willing to spend resources on monitoring and punishing other members of the community. Catholicism is more protective of the family and small-group relationships, and provides more tolerant and less motivating beliefs. Relatively smaller and less consistent differences appear in terms of worldly personal success and incentives.

Treatment of postoperative Crohn's disease.

At 1 year after a first resection, up to 80% of patients show an endoscopic recurrence, 10-20% have clinical relapse, and 5% have surgical recurrence. Smoking is one of the most important risk factors for postoperative recurrence. Preoperative disease activity and the severity of endoscopic lesions in the neoterminal ileum within the first postoperative year are predictors of symptomatic recurrence. Mesalamine is generally the first-line treatment used in the postoperative setting but still provokes considerable controversy as to its efficacy, in spite of the results of a meta-analysis. Immunosuppressive treatment (azathioprine, 6-MP) is based on scant evidence but is currently used as a second-line treatment in postsurgical patients at high risk for recurrence, with symptoms or with early endoscopic lesions in the neoterminal ileum. Nitroimidazole antibiotics (metronidazole, ornidazole) are also effective in the control of active Crohn's disease in the postoperative setting. Given their known toxicity, they may be used as a third-line treatment as initial short-term prevention therapy rather than for long-term use. Conventional corticosteroids, budesonide or probiotics have no proven role in postoperative prophylaxis. Infliximab has not as yet been studied for use in the prevention of relapse after surgery.

Drama i espectacle operístic : la dialèctica entre espai i temps en el Parsifal de Herheim i el ritus com a obra d’art del futur

Parsifal és, segons la manera en què es mire, l’excepció dins el llistat de drames musicals wagnerians pel tractament sense precedents que fa de motius catòlics en un lloc i un moment com la recentment unificada Alemanya, on la construcció de la identitat nacional passava per un model social i cultural concret i, per tant, també religiós. Però una òptica diferent ens pot apropar a una ingent quantitat de paral·lelismes entre el model artístic expressat per Wagner en els seus escrits teòrics de joventut i alguns dels elements estètics i ideològics de la seua darrera obra. L’espectacle operístic en l’actualitat continua sent fruit de la societat en què es gesta i per això Stefan Herheim utilitza una visió diacrònica de la recepció d’aquesta obra wagneriana com a un dels motius principals sobre els quals construirà una dramatúrgia densa i meditada en què es durà a terme fins a les seues últimes conseqüències una revisió en clau contemporània del concepte d’obra d’art del futur.

Discursos de gènere, nacionalisme i respostes col•lectives de les dones a Catalunya i Irlanda

El projecte realitzat se situa en el marc de la història contemporània, i s’ha centrat en primer lloc, en l’anàlisi, des d’una perspectiva comparativa, del desenvolupament dels discursos de gènere a Catalunya durant la Dictadura Franquista i a la Irlanda postcolonial. Mitjançant l’anàlisi del discurs, s’han estudiat els models de feminitat imposats pel Franquisme i les seves bases ideològiques com són el valors catòlics i l’antindividualisme. En el cas irlandès, s’ha analitzat com, a través de determinades institucions gestionades per l’Església Catòlica, es controlaven aquelles dones que es desviaven del model de gènere que propugnava l’Estat Irlandès, molt similar al proposat pel Franquisme i també basat en els catolicisme. De la mateix manera, s’ha estudiat com el feminisme Català i irlandès dels anys 1970 i 1980 van contrarestar aquests models de gènere imposats, a través de l’anàlisi d’un conjunt d’expressions culturals produïdes per ambdós moviments feministes. La perspectiva comparativa del projecte ha permès: El coneixement dels mecanismes culturals de repressió de les dones així com la seva institucionalització. Revelant els paral•lelismes pel que fa a les polítiques de gènere entre els dos casos estudiats malgrat diferències significatives entre els dos contextos (Catalunya es troba sota una dictadura, Irlanda és un Estat democràtic). La importància de l’agència de les dones i les seves diverses estratègies de resistència, especialment a través d’expressions culturals més efímeres o considerades frívoles que, malgrat el poc reconeixement que han obtingut, són molt eficaces en la deconstrucció de discursos de gènere repressius envers les dones. Ha posat de manifest, també, la importància de l’experiència i les pràctiques personals i íntimes com a pràctiques de resistència. Així mateix, ha visibilitzat les dinàmiques pròpies de moviments feministes.

Bartók i els seus dos últims concerts

La idea inicial d’aquest projecte rau en el meu interès per aprofundir en dues obres: una, escrita per a viola, i l’altra, per a piano. La controvèrsia musicològica sobre l’autenticitat del Concert per a viola de Bartók, una obra cabdal dins del repertori d’aquest instrument, i la coincidència cronològica que aquest concert manté amb el Concert per a piano núm. 3 d’aquest mateix compositor han estat, finalment, el focus central de Bartók i els seus dos últims concerts. Mitjançant la informació extreta de llibres sobre el compositor, articles, tesis i partitures, les pàgines següents són el reflex del meu apropament als últims anys de la vida de Bartók, a la història que s’amaga darrere d’ambdues obres i als paral·lelismes que conté aquesta música.

Appartenances en fête: entre l'ordinaire et le spectaculaire

Résumé Alors que les pratiques religieuses régulières diminuent et que les groupes religieux majoritaires perdent des membres formellement enregistrés, une évènementisation de l'appartenance religieuse peut être observée depuis environ deux décennies. Dans un premier exemple, l'auteure montre que le réseau transnational de la confrérie soufie des Mourides resserre les liens entre adeptes dans un contexte migratoire qui tend à fragiliser les relations sociales. La confrérie y fait face à travers une spectacularisation de la pratique religieuse, occupant l'espace public à Harlem ou, dans une moindre mesure, à Paris. Le second exemple traite du pèlerinage aux Saintes et Saints d'Afrique dans la ville valaisanne de Saint Maurice. Ce dernier fut inventé par l'Église catholique suisse afin d'attirer des migrants africains, mais aussi afin de redynamiser une pratique religieuse ordinaire en perte de vitesse. L'évènement a lieu en même temps que le pèlerinage de Namugongo en Ouganda, réunissant plus d'un demi-million de personnes. Les communautés évènementielles ainsi créées sont-elles durables ou plutôt liquides ? Abstract While regular religious practice is decreasing and the major religious groups are losing formally registered members, a 'spectacularization' of religious belonging can be observed over the last two decades. The author presents two examples to support this argument. In the first, the transnational network of the Murids, a Sufi brotherhood, has tried to reinforce the relations between its members, which become fragile during migration. The brotherhood occupies a public space in Harlem, and, to a lesser extent, in Paris, in a spectacularization of religious belonging, in order to remain attractive to migrants. The second example deals with the pilgrimage dedicated to African Saints in the Swiss town of Saint Maurice. This event was invented by the missionary service of the Swiss Catholic Church in order to attract African migrants, but also in order to make ordinary religious practice more appealing. The event takes place at the same time as the Ugandan pilgrimage of Namugongo, which assembles more than half a million people. However, are these 'event communities' sustainable or ephemeral?

Banks and development: Jewish communities in the Italian Renaissance and current economic performance

Are differences in local banking development long-lasting? Do they affect long-term economic performance?I answer these questions by relying on an historical development that occurred in Italian cities during the 15thcentury. A sudden change in the Catholic doctrine had driven the Jews toward money lending. Cities thatwere hosting Jewish communities developed complex banking institutions for two reasons: first, the Jews werethe only people in Italy who were allowed to lend for a profit and, second, the Franciscan reaction to Jewishusury led to the creation of charity lending institutions, the Monti di Pietà, that have survived until today andhave become the basis of the Italian banking system. Using Jewish demography in 1500 as an instrument, Iprovide evidence of (1) an extraordinary persistence in the level of banking development across Italian cities (2)large effects of current local banking development on per-capita income. Additional firm-level analyses suggestthat well-functioning local banks exert large effects on aggregate productivity by reallocating resources towardmore efficient firms. I exploit the expulsion of the Jews from the Spanish territories in Italy in 1541 to arguethat my results are not driven by omitted institutional, cultural and geographical characteristics. In particular,I show that, in Central Italy, the difference in current income between cities that hosted Jewish communitiesand cities that did not exists only in those regions that were not Spanish territories in the 16th century.

Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components

This paper discusses the role of deterministic components in the DGP and in the auxiliaryregression model which underlies the implementation of the Fractional Dickey-Fuller (FDF) test for I(1) against I(d) processes with d [0, 1). This is an important test in many economic applications because I(d) processess with d < 1 are mean-reverting although, when 0.5 = d < 1, like I(1) processes, they are nonstationary. We show how simple is the implementation of the FDF in these situations, and argue that it has better properties than LM tests. A simple testing strategy entailing only asymptotically normally distributedtests is also proposed. Finally, an empirical application is provided where the FDF test allowing for deterministic components is used to test for long-memory in the per capita GDP of several OECD countries, an issue that has important consequences to discriminate between growth theories, and on which there is some controversy.

Pre-play communication and credibility: A test of Aumann's conjecture

The effectiveness of pre-play communication in achieving efficientoutcomes has long been a subject of controversy. In some environments,cheap talk may help to achieve coordination. However, Aumannconjectures that, in a variant of the Stag Hunt game, a signal forefficient play is not self-enforcing and concludes that an "agreementto play [the efficient outcome] conveys no information about what theplayers will do." Harsanyi and Selten (1988) cite this example as anillustration of risk-dominance vs. payoff-dominance. Farrell and Rabin(1996) agree with the logic, but suspect that cheap talk willnonetheless achieve efficiency. The conjecture is tested with one-waycommunication. When the sender first chooses a signal and then anaction, there is impressive coordination: a 94% probability for thepotentially efficient (but risky) play, given a signal for efficientplay. Without communication, efforts to achieve efficiency wereunsuccessful, as the proportion of B moves is only 35%. I also test ahypothesis that the order of the action and the signal affects theresults, finding that the decision order is indeed important. WhileAumann s conjecture is behaviorally disconfirmed when the signal isdetermined initially, the signal s credibility seems to be much moresuspect when the sender is known to have first chosen an action, andthe results are not statistically distinguishable from those whenthere is no signal. Some applications and issues in communication andcoordination are discussed.

Spanish auditors and the 'true and fair view'

In 1990 a new Spanish 'Plan General de Contabilidad' (PGC) implementedthe requirements of the EU 4th and 7th Directives in Spain. Included in the PGC is the requirement, derived from the 4th Directive, that accounts should present a 'true and fair view', in Spanish 'imagen fiel'. Where the term has been used in English speaking jurisdictions it has proved to have a variety of shades of meaning, and to have had strikingly different impact in different countries. Within the European Union the term has been seen as a 'Trojan horse', inserted into the 4th Directive to inject an Anglo-Saxon approach of flexibility and judgement dependent accounting into a Continental European accounting tradition of detailed prescription and uniformity. In this paper we report on a survey of the views and experience of Spanish auditors relating to 'imagen fiel'. Specifically, we:1) Review the English language literature on 'true and fair view' to identify the key areas of controversy.2) Consider the significance of the 'true and fair view' within the EU 4th Directive.3) Report on the experience of Spanish auditors in working with this concept, their views on the value of the term, and their experience in use of the true and fair view 'override'.

The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach

The statistical properties of inflation and, in particular, its degree of persistence and stability over time is a subject of intense debate and no consensus has been achieved yet. The goal of this paper is to analyze this controversy using a general approach, with the aim of providing a plausible explanation for the existing contradictory results. We consider the inflation rates of 21 OECD countries which are modelled as fractionally integrated (FI) processes. First, we show analytically that FI can appear in inflation rates after aggregating individual prices from firms that face different costs of adjusting their prices. Then, we provide robust empirical evidence supporting the FI hypothesis using both classical and Bayesian techniques. Next, we estimate impulse response functions and other scalar measures of persistence, achieving an accurate picture of this property and its variation across countries. It is shown that the application of some popular tools for measuring persistence, such as the sum of the AR coefficients, could lead to erroneous conclusions if fractional integration is present. Finally, we explore the existence of changes in inflation inertia using a novel approach. We conclude that the persistence of inflation is very high (although non-permanent) in most post-industrial countries and that it has remained basically unchanged over the last four decades.

Specialization and rent-seeking in moral enforcement: The case of confession

Moral codes are produced and enforced by more or less specialized means and are subject to standard economic forces. This paper argues that the intermediary role played by the Catholic Church between God and Christians, a key difference from Protestantism, faces the standard trade-off of specialization benefits and agency costs. It applies this trade-off hypothesis to confession of sins to priests, an institution that epitomizes such intermediation, showing that this hypothesis fits cognitive, historical and econometric evidence better than a simpler rent-seeking story. In particular, Catholics who confess more often are observed to comply more with the moral code; however, no relationship is observed between mass attendance and moral compliance. The data also links the current decline in confession to the rise in education, which makes moral self-enforcement less costly, and to the productivity gap suffered by confession services, given its necessarily interpersonal nature.

Globalization and culture shaping the gender gap: A comparative analysis of urban Latin America and East Asia (1970 - 2000)

In this paper we present: 1. The available data on comparative gender inequality at themacroeconomic level and 2. Gender inequality measures at the microeconomic and case studylevel. We see that market openness has a significant effect on the narrowing of the human capitalgender gap. Globalization and market openness stand as factors that improve both the humancapital endowments of women and their economic position. But we also see that the effects ofculture and religious beliefs are very different. While Catholicism has a statistically significantinfluence on the improvement of the human capital gender gap, Muslim and Buddhist religiousbeliefs have the opposite effect and increase human capital gender differences.In the second global era, some Catholic Latin American countries benefited from market opennessin terms of the human capital and income gender gap, whereas we find the opposite impact inBuddhist and Muslim countries like China and South Korea where women s economic positionhas worsened in terms of human capital and wage inequality.

Attitudes towards morphine use among Swiss nurses and physicians

Background: There is little information regarding risk perception and attitudes on morphine use in Switzerland. Objectives: We aimed at assessing such attitudes in a sample of health professionals in the French-speaking part of Switzerland. Study design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: five non-university hospitals of the French-speaking canton of Valais, Switzerland. Methods: 431 nurses and 40 physicians (age range: 20-63). Risk perception and attitudes towards morphine use were assessed using a validated questionnaire. Results: Over half of participants showed a negative attitude regarding most adverse events related to morphine, while less than one third showed a similar attitude regarding other statements. On bivariate analyses, participants working in geriatrics showed a more negative attitude towards use of morphine than participants working in medicine and surgery. Non-Swiss participants also showed a more negative attitude than Swiss regarding use of morphine. Conversely, no differences were found between genders, profession (nurses or physicians), years of experience (<=14 and >14) and religion (catholic vs. others/no religion). These findings were further confirmed by multivariate adjustment. Limitations: possible selection bias due to responders only. Results limited to French speaking participants. Conclusion: Attitudes regarding morphine uses are mainly driven by its potential adverse effects and vary according to specialty and nationality. Educational measures directed at health professionals working in geriatrics or coming from abroad might reduce the high morphinophobia levels observed in these groups.