Prediction of the economic cost of individual long-term care in the Spanish population

Pensions together with savings and investments during active life are key elements of retirement planning. Motivation for personal choices about the standard of living, bequest and the replacement ratio of pension with respect to last salary income must be considered. This research contributes to the financial planning by helping to quantify long-term care economic needs. We estimate life expectancy from retirement age onwards. The economic cost of care per unit of service is linked to the expected time of needed care and the intensity of required services. The expected individual cost of long-term care from an onset of dependence is estimated separately for men and women. Assumptions on the mortality of the dependent people compared to the general population are introduced. Parameters defining eligibility for various forms of coverage by the universal public social care of the welfare system are addressed. The impact of the intensity of social services on individual predictions is assessed, and a partial coverage by standard private insurance products is also explored. Data were collected by the Spanish Institute of Statistics in two surveys conducted on the general Spanish population in 1999 and in 2008. Official mortality records and life table trends were used to create realistic scenarios for longevity. We find empirical evidence that the public long-term care system in Spain effectively mitigates the risk of incurring huge lifetime costs. We also find that the most vulnerable categories are citizens with moderate disabilities that do not qualify to obtain public social care support. In the Spanish case, the trends between 1999 and 2008 need to be further explored.

Series enlazadas de empleo asalariado y rentas del trabajo regionales (RegDat versión 2.2)

I construct "homogeneous" series of salaried employment, employee compensation and total labor income for Spain and its regions covering the period 1955-2008. I also estimate labor's share in regional and national GVA and construct an indicator of the average cost of labor including both employees and non-salaried workers.

Adjuvant chemotherapy for localised resectable soft-tissue sarcoma of adults: meta-analysis of individual data

BACKGROUND: Individually, randomised trials have not shown conclusively whether adjuvant chemotherapy benefits adult patients with localised resectable soft-tissue sarcoma.METHODS: A quantitative meta-analysis of updated data from individual patients from all available randomised trials was carried out to assess whether adjuvant chemotherapy improves overall survival, recurrence-free survival, and local and distant recurrence-free intervals (RFI) and whether chemotherapy is differentially effective in patients defined by age, sex, disease status at randomisation, disease site, histology, grade, tumour size, extent of resection, and use of radiotherapy.FINDINGS: 1568 patients from 14 trials of doxorubicin-based adjuvant chemotherapy were included (median follow-up 9.4 years). Hazard ratios of 0.73 (95% CI 0.56-0.94, p = 0.016) for local RFI, 0.70 (0.57-0.85, p = 0.0003) for distant RFI, and 0.75 (0.64-0.87, p = 0.0001) for overall recurrence-free survival, correspond to absolute benefits from adjuvant chemotherapy of 6% (95% CI 1-10), 10% (5-15), and 10% (5-15), respectively, at 10 years. For overall survival the hazard ratio of 0.89 (0.76-1.03) was not significant (p = 0.12), but represents an absolute benefit of 4% (1-9) at 10 years. These results were not affected by prespecified changes in the groups of patients analysed. There was no consistent evidence that the relative effect of adjuvant chemotherapy differed for any subgroup of patients for any endpoint. However, the best evidence of an effect of adjuvant chemotherapy for survival was seen in patients with sarcomas of the extremities.INTERPRETATION: The meta-analysis provides evidence that adjuvant doxorubicin-based chemotherapy significantly improves the time to local and distant recurrence and overall recurrence-free survival. There is a trend towards improved overall survival.

Coronary heart disease in primary care: accuracy of medical history and physical findings in patients with chest pain - a study protocol for a systematic review with individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Chest pain is a common complaint in primary care, with coronary heart disease (CHD) being the most concerning of many potential causes. Systematic reviews on the sensitivity and specificity of symptoms and signs summarize the evidence about which of them are most useful in making a diagnosis. Previous meta-analyses are dominated by studies of patients referred to specialists. Moreover, as the analysis is typically based on study-level data, the statistical analyses in these reviews are limited while meta-analyses based on individual patient data can provide additional information. Our patient-level meta-analysis has three unique aims. First, we strive to determine the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for myocardial ischemia in primary care. Second, we investigate associations between study- or patient-level characteristics and measures of diagnostic accuracy. Third, we aim to validate existing clinical prediction rules for diagnosing myocardial ischemia in primary care. This article describes the methods of our study and six prospective studies of primary care patients with chest pain. Later articles will describe the main results. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis of studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing coronary heart disease in primary care. We will perform bivariate analyses to determine the sensitivity, specificity and likelihood ratios of individual symptoms and signs and multivariate analyses to explore the diagnostic value of an optimal combination of all symptoms and signs based on all data of all studies. We will validate existing clinical prediction rules from each of the included studies by calculating measures of diagnostic accuracy separately by study. DISCUSSION: Our study will face several methodological challenges. First, the number of studies will be limited. Second, the investigators of original studies defined some outcomes and predictors differently. Third, the studies did not collect the same standard clinical data set. Fourth, missing data, varying from partly missing to fully missing, will have to be dealt with.Despite these limitations, we aim to summarize the available evidence regarding the diagnostic accuracy of symptoms and signs for diagnosing CHD in patients presenting with chest pain in primary care. REVIEW REGISTRATION: Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (University of York): CRD42011001170.

Las relaciones de las teorías de Jung y el trabajo de Grotowski con sus actores

La finalidad del trabajo es demostrar que los objetivos que Grotowski pretendió en su trabajo con los actores en su primera época, ligada al teatro laboratorium, pueden ser contemplados desde el mapa conceptual de la psicología profunda o analítica creada por C.G. Jung. Este acercamiento, permite reimaginar este “proceso de autopenetración” que el creador polaco buscaba con sus actores desde esta visión psicológica concreta. Cabe afirmar, por tanto, que este trabajo actoral iba más allá de la dimensión escénica y era un método “terapéutico” de desarrollo de la personalidad del individuo-actor en su camino de transformación para llegar a ser lo que Grotowski denominó “actor santo”.

Voces del pasado, ecos del presente. la Red de Trabajo Contra la Violencia Sobre las Mujeres en Tiempos de Guerra y su labor en la sociedad japonesa

Gracias al trabajo de las redes transnacionales de defensa los marcos legales internacionales se han adaptado a las nuevas dimensiones que han alcanzado los conflictos armados en los últimos veinte años. Esta investigación estudia el papel de la Violence Against Women in War Network, Japan y del Women's Active Museum on War and Peace, como ejemplos de cómo los actores no gubernamentales pueden sensibilizar y transformar las normas nacionales e internacionales, el comportamiento de los Estados, los organismos supraestatales y a la sociedad en la que desarrollan su labor

Complete immunization against Trypanosoma cruzi verified in individual mice by complement-mediated lysis

Experimental systems to assay immunity against Trypanosoma cruzi usually demonstrate partial resistance without excluding the establishment of sub-patent infections in protected animals. To test whether Swiss mice immunized with attenuated parasites might develop complete resistance against virulent T. cruzi, experiments were performed involving challenge with low numbers of parasites, enhancement of local inflammation and the combination of natural and acquired resistance. Absence of infection was established after repeated negative parasitological tests (including xenodiagnosis and hemoculture), and lack of lytic antibody was tested by complement mediated lysis. Immunization with 10(7) attenuated epimastigotes conferred protection against the development of high levels of parasitemia after challenge with Tulahuen strain, but was unable to reduce the number of infected animals. However, when a strong, delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction was triggered at the site of infection by injecting a mixture of virulent and attenuated T. cruzi, a significant proportion of immunized animals remained totally free of virulent infection. The same result was obtained when the immunization experiment was performed in four month old Swiss mice, displaying a relatively high natural resistance and challenged with wild, vector-borne parasites. These experiments demonstrate that complete resistance against T. cruzi can be obtained in a significant proportion of animals, under conditions which replicate natural, vector delivered infection by the parasite.

Individual contributions of mutant protease and reverse transcriptase to viral infectivity, replication, and protein maturation of antiretroviral drug-resistant human immunodeficiency virus type 1.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) variants resistant to protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase (RT) inhibitors may display impaired infectivity and replication capacity. The individual contributions of mutated HIV-1 PR and RT to infectivity, replication, RT activity, and protein maturation (herein referred to as "fitness") in recombinant viruses were investigated by separately cloning PR, RT, and PR-RT cassettes from drug-resistant mutant viral isolates into the wild-type NL4-3 background. Both mutant PR and RT contributed to measurable deficits in fitness of viral constructs. In peripheral blood mononuclear cells, replication rates (means +/- standard deviations) of RT recombinants were 72.5% +/- 27.3% and replication rates of PR recombinants were 60.5% +/- 33.6% of the rates of NL4-3. PR mutant deficits were enhanced in CEM T cells, with relative replication rates of PR recombinants decreasing to 15.8% +/- 23.5% of NL4-3 replication rates. Cloning of the cognate RT improved fitness of some PR mutant clones. For a multidrug-resistant virus transmitted through sexual contact, RT constructs displayed a marked infectivity and replication deficit and diminished packaging of Pol proteins (RT content in virions diminished by 56.3% +/- 10.7%, and integrase content diminished by 23.3% +/- 18.4%), a novel mechanism for a decreased-fitness phenotype. Despite the identified impairment of recombinant clones, fitness of two of the three drug-resistant isolates was comparable to that of wild-type, susceptible viruses, suggestive of extensive compensation by genomic regions away from PR and RT. Only limited reversion of mutated positions to wild-type amino acids was observed for the native isolates over 100 viral replication cycles in the absence of drug selective pressure. These data underscore the complex relationship between PR and RT adaptive changes and viral evolution in antiretroviral drug-resistant HIV-1.

Assessing ageing of individual T lymphocytes: mission impossible?

Effector T lymphocytes are the progeny of a limited number of antigen-specific precursor cells and it has been estimated that clonotypic human T cells may expand million fold on their way reaching high cell numbers that are sufficient for immune protection. Moreover, memory T cell responses are characterized by repetitive expansion of antigen-specific T cell clonotypes, and limitations in the proliferative capacity could lead to immune senescence. Because telomeres progressively shorten as a function of cell division, telomere length is a powerful indicator of the replicative in vivo history of human T lymphocytes. In this review, we summarize observations made over the last decade on telomere length dynamics of well-defined T cell populations derived from healthy donors and patients with infectious disease or cancer. We focus on T cell differentiation, T cell ageing, and natural and vaccine induced immune responses. We also discuss the scientific evidence for in vivo replicative senescence of antigen-specific T cells, and evaluate the available methods for measuring telomere lengths and telomerase activity, and their potential and limitations to increase our understanding of T cell physiology.

Change in individual growth rate and its link to gill-net fishing in two sympatric whitefish species

Size-selective fishing is expected to affect traits such as individual growth rate, but the relationship between the fishery-linked selection differentials and the corresponding phenotypic changes is not well understood. We analysed a 25-year monitoring survey of sympatric populations of the two Alpine whitefish Coregonus albellus and C. fatioi. We determined the fishing-induced selection differentials on growth rates, the actual change of growth rates over time, and potential indicators of reproductive strategies that may change over time. We found marked declines in adult growth rate and significant selection differentials that may partly explain the observed declines. However, when comparing the two sympatric species, the selection differentials on adult growth were stronger in C. albellus while the decline in adult growth rate seemed more pronounced in C. fatioi. Moreover, the selection differential on juvenile growth was significant in C. albellus but not in C. fatioi, while a significant reduction in juvenile growth over the last 25 years was only found in C. fatioi. Our results suggest that size-selective fishing affects the genetics for individual growth in these whitefish, and that the link between selection differentials and phenotypic changes is influenced by species-specific factors.

Habitat, breeding performance, diet and individual age in Swiss barn owls (Tyto alba)

Intensification of farming over the past 50 years has homogenised the landscape structure and contributed to the decline of bird populations in Europe. To better target the conservation of the Barn Owl Tyto alba, we assessed the influence of the landscape structure on breeding performance in western Switzerland. The analyses considered a 23-year data set of breeding parameters collected in an area dominated by intensive agriculture. Using a Geographic Information System approach, landscape characteristics were described around 194 nest sites. Our analyses showed that nest-box occupancy, laying date, clutch and brood size, egg volume and probability of producing a second annual clutch were not significantly associated with any of the eight principal landscape variables (agricultural land, woodland, urban area, hedgerows, cereals, sugar beet, maize and meadow). Nevertheless, the probability that a breeding pair occupied a nest-box decreased the more roads there were surrounding the nest-box. The absence of strong associations between habitat features and breeding parameters suggests that prey availability may be relatively similar between the different breeding sites. In our study area Barn Owls can always find suitable foraging habitats around most nest-boxes.

Singling out individual inventors from patent data

An increasing number of studies have sprung up in recent years seeking to identify individual inventors from patent data. Different heuristics have been suggested to use their names and other information disclosed in patent documents in order to find out “who is who” in patents. This paper contributes to this literature by setting forth a methodology to identify them using patents applied to the European Patent Office (EPO hereafter). As in the large part of this literature, we basically follow a three-steps procedure: (1) the parsing stage, aimed at reducing the noise in the inventor’s name and other fields of the patent; (2) the matching stage, where name matching algorithms are used to group possible similar names; (3) the filtering stage, where additional information and different scoring schemes are used to filter out these potential same inventors. The paper includes some figures resulting of applying the algorithms to the set of European inventors applying to the EPO for a large period of time.