Reactive, Slow and...Innovative? Decision-making Structures and Policy Outputs

Consensus democracies like Switzerland are generally known to have a low innovation capacity (Lijphart 1999). This is due to the high number of veto points such as perfect bicameralism or the popular referendum. These institutions provide actors opposing a policy with several opportunities to block potential policy change (Immergut 1990; Tsebelis 2002). In order to avoid a failure of a process because opposing actors activate veto points, decision-making processes in Switzerland tend to integrate a large number of actors with different - and often diverging - preferences (Kriesi and Trechsel 2008). Including a variety of actors in a decision-making process and taking into account their preferences implies important trade-offs. Integrating a large number of actors and accommodating their preferences takes time and carries the risk of resulting in lowest common denominator solutions. On the contrary, major innovative reforms usually fail or come only as a result of strong external pressures from either the international environment, economic turmoil or the public (Kriesi 1980: 635f.; Kriesi and Trechsel 2008; Sciarini 1994). Standard decision-making processes are therefore characterized as reactive, slow and capable of only marginal adjustments (Kriesi 1980; Kriesi and Trechsel 2008; Linder 2009; Sciarini 2006). This, in turn, may be at odds with the rapid developments of international politics, the flexibility of the private sector, or the speed of technological development.

Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change

Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies — not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.

Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe

The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, where voters reward or punish government at the ballot box according to economic performance. The alternative, policy-oriented hypothesis, where voters favor parties closest to their issue position, has been neglected in this literature. We explore policy voting with respect to an archetypal economic policy issue – unemployment. Voters who favor lower unemployment should tend to vote for left parties, since they “own” the issue. Examining a large time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) pool of Western European nations, we find some evidence for economic policy voting. However, it exists in a form conditioned by incumbency. According to varied tests, left incumbents actually experience a net electoral cost, if the unemployment rate climbs under their regime. Incumbency, then, serves to break any natural economic policy advantage that might accrue to the left due to the unemployment issue.

Tidal and spatial variations of DI13C and aquatic chemistry in a temperate tidal basin during winter time

Here, the pelagic carbonate system and the ?13C signature of dissolved inorganic carbonate (DIC) were investigated in a tidal basin of the southern North Sea, the Jade Bay, with respect to tidal cycles and a transect towards the North Sea in winter time (January and November, 2010). Physical parameters, major and trace elements, and nutrient concentrations were considered, too. Primary production and pelagic organic matter respiration were negligible during winter time. Both, the compositional variations on the transects as well as during the tidal cycles indicate the mixing of North Sea with fresh water. The combined spatial co-variations of different parameters indicate an introduction of fresh water that was enriched in DI12C, metabolites (e.g., ammonia), protons, and dissolved redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Mn2+). During the January campaign, the discharge via the flood gates was limited due to ice cover of the hinterland drainage ditches, allowing for an observation of tidal variations without significant mixing contributions from surface water discharges. Considering a binary mixing model with North Sea and fresh water as end-members, the extrapolated fresh water end-member composition for this campaign is estimated to contain about 3.8 mmol/kg DIC , and enhanced concentrations of NH4+, Mn2+, and protons compared to North Sea water. The fast temporal response of dissolved geochemical tracers on tidal variations in the Jade Bay indicates a continuous supply of a fresh water component. The measured composition of fresh waters entering the Jade Bay via flood gates (end of October, 2010) did not match the values estimated by the binary mixing model. Therefore, the overall fresh water component likely is a mixture between sources originating from flood gates and (in January) dominating submarine groundwater discharge entering the Jade Bay. This model is consistent with the results obtained during the November campaign, when a more important contribution from flood gates is expected and a more variable fresh water end-member is estimated. The co-variations of the concentrations and the stable carbon isotope composition of DIC are applied to evaluate possible superimposed sink-source-transformation processes in the coastal waters and a general co-variation scheme is suggested.

Astronomical time scale for Paleocene and early Eocene sediments

The astronomical-tuned time scale is rapidly extended into the Paleogene but, due to the existence of an Eocene gap, different tuning options had to be presented for the Paleocene. These options differ both in number and tuning of ~405-kyr eccentricity related cycles and are only partially consistent with recalculated 40Ar/39Ar constraints for the Cretaceous/Paleogene (K/Pg) and Paleocene/Eocene (P/E) boundaries. In this paper, we evaluate the cyclostratigraphic interpretation of records from ODP Leg 198 and 208 sites, and the Zumaia section to solve the problem of the different tuning options. We found that the interval between the K/Pg boundary and the early Late Paleocene biotic event (ELPE) comprises 17 instead of 16 * ~405-kyr eccentricity related cycles as previously proposed, while the entire Paleocene contains 25 * ~405-kyr cycles. Starting from 40Ar/39Ar age constraints for the K/Pg boundary, a new tuning to 405-kyr eccentricity is presented for the Paleocene and earliest Eocene, which results in ages of ~66.0 and ~ 56.0 Ma for the K/Pg and P/E boundaries, respectively. This tuning introduces considerable differences in age for a number of nannofossil events at ODP Sites 1209 and 1262 in the interval between 61 and 63 Ma, but eliminates large and abrupt changes in the seafloor spreading rate. The tuning seems further consistent with recalculated 40Ar/39Ar ages for ash layer -17 of early Eocene age. However, despite this apparent consistency with existing radio-isotopic constraints, an alternative 405-kyr younger or, less likely, older tuning cannot be excluded at this stage.

(Table S2) Biometric data, time of ice breakup and carbon isotopic composition of adipose tissue of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) between 1991-2007

Two global environmental issues, climate change and contamination by persistent organic pollutants, represent major concerns for arctic ecosystems. Yet, it is unclear how these two stressors interact in the Arctic. For instance, the influence of climate-associated changes in food web structure on exposure to pollutants within arctic ecosystems is presently unknown. Here, we report on recent changes in feeding ecology (1991-2007) in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from the western Hudson Bay subpopulation that have resulted in increases in the tissue concentrations of several chlorinated and brominated contaminants. Differences in timing of the annual sea ice breakup explained a significant proportion of the diet variation among years. As expected from climate change predictions, this diet change was consistent with an increase in the consumed proportions of open water-associated seal species compared to ice-associated seal species in years of earlier sea ice breakup. Our results demonstrate that climate change is a modulating influence on contaminants in this polar bear subpopulation and may pose an additional and previously unidentified threat to northern ecosystems through altered exposures to contaminants.

Biological and environmental time series obtained from Point B, Bay of Villefranche

Ecological succession provides a widely accepted description of seasonal changes in phytoplankton and mesozooplankton assemblages in the natural environment, but concurrent changes in smaller (i.e. microbes) and larger (i.e. macroplankton) organisms are not included in the model because plankton ranging from bacteria to jellies are seldom sampled and analyzed simultaneously. Here we studied, for the first time in the aquatic literature, the succession of marine plankton in the whole-plankton assemblage that spanned 5 orders of magnitude in size from microbes to macroplankton predators (not including fish or fish larvae, for which no consistent data were available). Samples were collected in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea (Bay of Villefranche) weekly during 10 months. Simultaneously collected samples were analyzed by flow cytometry, inverse microscopy, FlowCam, and ZooScan. The whole-plankton assemblage underwent sharp reorganizations that corresponded to bottom-up events of vertical mixing in the water-column, and its development was top-down controlled by large gelatinous filter feeders and predators. Based on the results provided by our novel whole-plankton assemblage approach, we propose a new comprehensive conceptual model of the annual plankton succession (i.e. whole plankton model) characterized by both stepwise stacking of four broad trophic communities from early spring through summer, which is a new concept, and progressive replacement of ecological plankton categories within the different trophic communities, as recognised traditionally.

Verification of the time-response method for heat load calculation.

"Office of the Assistant Secretary for Policy Development and Research, Dept. of Housing and Urban Development."

Peace and war, United States foreign policy, 1931-1941.

"On January 2, 1943 the Department of state released a publication entitled 'Peace and war: United States foreign policy, 1931-1941,' containing references to a number of documents concerning the conduct of the foreign relations of the United States during that ten-year period. It was stated at the time that these documents would be published later. They are accordingly published herein, together with a reprint of the publication released on January 2."--Foreword.

Work time and employment : a conference report /

Mode of access: Internet.

Quantifying ice-shelf basal melt and ice-stream dynamics using high-resolution DEM and GPS time series

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The Promise and the Price of Contact: Puyallup Indian Acculturation, Federal Indian Policy and the City of Tacoma, 1832-1909

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The relationship between diurnal type and time duration estimation at morning and evening times of day

This study investigates whether different diurnal types (morning versus evening) differ in their estimation of time duration at different times of the day. Given that the performance of morning and evening types is typically best at their preferred times of day, and assuming different diurnal trends in subjective alertness (arousal?) for morning and evening types, and adopting the attentional gate model of time duration estimation, it was predicted that morning types would tend to underestimate and be more accurate in the morning compared to evening types where the opposite pattern was expected. Nineteen morning types, 18 evening types and 18 intermediate types were drawn from a large sample (N=1175) of undergraduates administered the Early/Late Preference Scale. Groups performed a time duration estimation task using the production method for estimating 20-s unfilled intervals at two times of day: 0800/1830. The median absolute error, median directional error and frequency of under- and overestimation were analysed using repeated-measures ANOVA. While all differences were statistically non-significant, the following trends were observed: morning types performed better than evening types; participants overestimated in the morning and underestimated in the evening; and participants were more accurate later in the day. It was concluded that the trends are inconsistent with a relationship between subjective alertness and time duration estimation but consistent with a possible relationship between time duration estimation and diurnal body temperature fluctuations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space-Time Smoothing Models for Surveillance and Complex Survey Data

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06