Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

The role of alliance in the relationship between therapist competence and outcome in brief psychodynamic psychotherapy.

Therapist competence is a key variable for psychotherapy research. Empirically, the relationship between competence and therapeutic outcome has shown contradictory results and needs to be clarified, especially with regard to possible variables influencing this relationship. A total of 78 outpatients were treated by 15 therapists in a very brief 4-session format, based on psychoanalytic theory. Data were analyzed by means of a nested design using hierarchical linear modeling. No direct link between therapist competence and outcome has been found, however, results corroborated the importance of alliance patterns as moderator in the relationship between therapist competence and outcome. Only in dyads with alliance change over the course of treatment was it clear that competence is positively related to outcome. These findings are discussed with regard to the importance for outcome of therapist competence and alliance construction processes.

A new accelerometric method to assess the daily walking practice.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a method to obtain a profile of the duration and intensity (speed) of walking periods over 24 hours in women under free-living conditions. DESIGN: A new method based on accelerometry was designed for analyzing walking activity. In order to take into account inter-individual variability of acceleration, an individual calibration process was used. Different experiments were performed to highlight the variability of acceleration vs walking speed relationship, to analyze the speed prediction accuracy of the method, and to test the assessment of walking distance and duration over 24-h. SUBJECTS: Twenty-eight women were studied (mean+/-s.d.) age: 39.3+/-8.9 y; body mass: 79.7+/-11.1 kg; body height: 162.9+/-5.4 cm; and body mass index (BMI) 30.0+/-3.8 kg/m(2). RESULTS: Accelerometer output was significantly correlated with speed during treadmill walking (r=0.95, P<0.01), and short unconstrained walks (r=0.86, P<0.01), although with a large inter-individual variation of the regression parameters. By using individual calibration, it was possible to predict walking speed on a standard urban circuit (predicted vs measured r=0.93, P<0.01, s.e.e.=0.51 km/h). In the free-living experiment, women spent on average 79.9+/-36.0 (range: 31.7-168.2) min/day in displacement activities, from which discontinuous short walking activities represented about 2/3 and continuous ones 1/3. Total walking distance averaged 2.1+/-1.2 (range: 0.4-4.7) km/day. It was performed at an average speed of 5.0+/-0.5 (range: 4.1-6.0) km/h. CONCLUSION: An accelerometer measuring the anteroposterior acceleration of the body can estimate walking speed together with the pattern, intensity and duration of daily walking activity.

The nonlinear relaxation time and quasideterministic-theory approaches to characterize the decay of unestable states

We present the relationship between nonlinear-relaxation-time (NLRT) and quasideterministic approaches to characterize the decay of an unstable state. The universal character of the NLRT is established. The theoretical results are applied to study the dynamical relaxation of the Landau model in one and n variables and also a laser model.

Etat des lieux et potentiel de l'agriculture urbaine en Suisse : analyse de deux projets d'agriculture urbaine sous l'angle des régimes institutionnels des ressources naturelles

Ce travail de recherche dresse un panorama de l'état du développement des pratiques d'agriculture urbaine en Suisse et analyse le potentiel que celles-ci pourraient y développer, compte tenu des particularités du contexte national. La démarche adoptée suit une logique allant du général au particulier, de la théorie à la pratique, du descriptif vers l'analytique. Dans un premier temps, l'agriculture urbaine est abordée sous un angle conceptuel, comprenant un retour historique sur la relation ville-campagne et sur l'apparition récente du terme d'agriculture urbaine, un tour d'horizon de la littérature sur le sujet, une revue de ses diverses approches scientifiques et la circonscription des enjeux de sa définition. Dans un deuxième temps, l'agriculture urbaine est envisagée sous sa forme pratique, en Suisse comme à l'étranger. En ressort un inventaire étendu de ses différents types de mises en application, auquel correspond un panel d'atouts identifiés selon les trois versants du développement durable : social, écologique et économique. En troisième lieu les spécificités du contexte helvétique sont étudiées afin de comprendre quel est le cadre dans lequel le potentiel de l'agriculture urbaine pourrait se développer. Finalement, ce sont deux cas concrets d'agriculture urbaine qui sont analysés et évalués dans les détails, selon l'approche dite des régimes institutionnels des ressources naturelles (RIRN): le « plantage » lausannois du quartier de la Bourdonnette et le Stadiongarten dans le quartier Kreis 5 à Zurich. Au fil de cette recherche, il apparaît que l'agriculture urbaine révèle toute une série d'avantages en termes de développement durable, alors même que les villes suisses sont unanimement reconnues comme présentant un déficit dans ce domaine. De même, malgré les bienfaits importants que présentent ses diverses pratiques, l'agriculture urbaine reste encore très peu répandue en Suisse, le concept lui-même n'apparaissant que très rarement dans le discours des pouvoirs publics. Le principal frein à l'agriculture en ville est identifié comme étant le manque d'espace disponible dans les agglomérations, contrainte pourtant largement surmontable en y regardant de plus près. De par sa configuration topographique, le territoire suisse est particulièrement sujet à une étroite proximité entre espaces urbains et étendues agricoles, accroissant de ce fait la problématique de l'étalement urbain et du mitage du paysage. Parmi les enjeux de la lutte contre ces phénomènes concomitants, l'agriculture urbaine aurait un rôle important à jouer. En conclusion, une série de recommandations sont proposées afin que les projets d'agriculture urbaine puissent se développer et perdurer en Suisse. Abstract : This research paper provides an overview of the state of development of urban agriculture practices in Switzerland. It analyzes their potential of expansion while taking into account the particularities of the national context. The method follows a general to particular, theory to practice and descriptive to analytical reasoning. Firstly, urban agriculture is approached through a conceptual view, including a historical overview of the relationship between town and country and of the recent appearance of the term "urban agriculture". An outline of the literature on the subject, an examination of its various scientific approaches and riding issues of its definition are elaborated as well. In a second step, urban agriculture is considered in its practical form, both in Switzerland and abroad. From this we created an extensive inventory of various types of implementations which corresponds to a panel of assets identified according to the three aspects of sustainable development: social, ecology and economics. Thirdly the specificities of Swiss context are studied in order to understand the frame in which the potential of urban agriculture could be developed. Finally, two case studies of urban agriculture are analyzed and evaluated in detail, according to the so-called institutional regimes of natural resources (RIRN) approach: the "plantage" of the Bourdonnette neighborhood in Lausanne and the "Stadiongarten" in the Kreis 5 neighborhood in Zurich. Throughout this research, urban agriculture reveals a number of advantages in terms of sustainable development, even though the Swiss cities are unanimously recognized as having a deficit in this area. As well, despite the significant benefits that are its various practices, urban agriculture is still very uncommon in Switzerland, the concept itself appearing only rarely in public debates. The main obstacle to city agriculture is identified as the lack of available space in urban areas, however this constraint can easily be surpassed. By its topographical configuration, Switzerland is particularly prone to a close proximity between urban and agricultural spaces, thereby increasing the problems of urban sprawl. Among the stakes in the struggle against these interrelated phenomena, urban agriculture could play an important role. In conclusion, a series of recommendations are proposed so that urban agriculture projects can grow and persist in Switzerland.

On the relationship between connections and the asymptotic properties of predictive distributions

In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

The relationship between cognitive errors and interpersonal patterns in depressed women.

Individuals with depression process information in an overly negative or biased way (e.g., Henriques & Leitenberg, 2002) and demonstrate significant interpersonal dysfunction (e.g., Zlotnick, Kohn, Keitner, & Della Grotta, 2000). This study examined the relationship between cognitive errors (CEs) and interpersonal interactions in early psychotherapy sessions of 25 female patients with major depression. Transcripts were rated for CEs using the Cognitive Error Rating Scale (Drapeau, Perry, & Dunkley, 2008). Interpersonal patterns were assessed using the Structural Analysis of Social Behavior (Benjamin, 1974). Significant associations were found between CEs and markers of interpersonal functioning in selected contexts. The implications of these findings in bridging the gap between research and practice, enhancing treatment outcome, and improving therapist training are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Prevalence, awareness and control of diabetes in the Seychelles and relationship with excess body weight.

BACKGROUND: The evidence for a "diabesity" epidemic is accumulating worldwide but population-based data are still scarce in the African region. We assessed the prevalence, awareness and control of diabetes (DM) in the Seychelles, a rapidly developing country in the African region. We also examined the relationship between body mass index, fasting serum insulin and DM. METHODS: Examination survey in a sample representative of the entire population aged 25-64 of the Seychelles, attended by 1255 persons (participation rate of 80.2%). An oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in individuals with fasting blood glucose between 5.6 and 6.9 mmol/l. Diabetes mellitus (DM), impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) were defined along criteria of the ADA. Prevalence estimates were standardized for age. RESULTS: The prevalence of DM was 11.5% and 54% of persons with DM were aware of having DM. Less than a quarter of all diabetic persons under treatment were well controlled for glycemia (HbA1c), blood pressure or LDL-cholesterol. The prevalence of IGT and IFG were respectively 10.4% and 24.2%. The prevalence of excess weight (BMI > or = 25 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI > or = 30 kg/m2) was respectively 60.1% and 25.0%. Half of all DM cases in the population could be attributed to excess weight. CONCLUSION: We found a high prevalence of DM and pre-diabetes in a rapidly developing country in the African region. The strong association between overweight and DM emphasizes the importance of weight control measures to reduce the incidence of DM in the population. High rates of diabetic persons not aware of having DM in the population and insufficient cardiometabolic control among persons treated for DM stress the need for intensifying health care for diabetes.

Machine learning for spatial environmental data. Theory, applications and software

The book presents the state of the art in machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks of different architectures, support vector machines, etc.) as applied to the classification and mapping of spatially distributed environmental data. Basic geostatistical algorithms are presented as well. New trends in machine learning and their application to spatial data are given, and real case studies based on environmental and pollution data are carried out. The book provides a CD-ROM with the Machine Learning Office software, including sample sets of data, that will allow both students and researchers to put the concepts rapidly to practice.

Debating the centre : the theory of principal qualificand (mukhyavisesya) in classical Indian philosophy

The theory of language has occupied a special place in the history of Indian thought. Indian philosophers give particular attention to the analysis of the cognition obtained from language, known under the generic name of śābdabodha. This term is used to denote, among other things, the cognition episode of the hearer, the content of which is described in the form of a paraphrase of a sentence represented as a hierarchical structure. Philosophers submit the meaning of the component items of a sentence and their relationship to a thorough examination, and represent the content of the resulting cognition as a paraphrase centred on a meaning element, that is taken as principal qualificand (mukhyaviśesya) which is qualified by the other meaning elements. This analysis is the object of continuous debate over a period of more than a thousand years between the philosophers of the schools of Mimāmsā, Nyāya (mainly in its Navya form) and Vyākarana. While these philosophers are in complete agreement on the idea that the cognition of sentence meaning has a hierarchical structure and share the concept of a single principal qualificand (qualified by other meaning elements), they strongly disagree on the question which meaning element has this role and by which morphological item it is expressed. This disagreement is the central point of their debate and gives rise to competing versions of this theory. The Mïmāmsakas argue that the principal qualificand is what they call bhāvanā ̒bringing into being̒, ̒efficient force̒ or ̒productive operation̒, expressed by the verbal affix, and distinct from the specific procedures signified by the verbal root; the Naiyāyikas generally take it to be the meaning of the word with the first case ending, while the Vaiyākaranas take it to be the operation expressed by the verbal root. All the participants rely on the Pāninian grammar, insofar as the Mimāmsakas and Naiyāyikas do not compose a new grammar of Sanskrit, but use different interpretive strategies in order to justify their views, that are often in overt contradiction with the interpretation of the Pāninian rules accepted by the Vaiyākaranas. In each of the three positions, weakness in one area is compensated by strength in another, and the cumulative force of the total argumentation shows that no position can be declared as correct or overall superior to the others. This book is an attempt to understand this debate, and to show that, to make full sense of the irreconcilable positions of the three schools, one must go beyond linguistic factors and consider the very beginnings of each school's concern with the issue under scrutiny. The texts, and particularly the late texts of each school present very complex versions of the theory, yet the key to understanding why these positions remain irreconcilable seems to lie elsewhere, this in spite of extensive argumentation involving a great deal of linguistic and logical technicalities. Historically, this theory arises in Mimāmsā (with Sabara and Kumārila), then in Nyāya (with Udayana), in a doctrinal and theological context, as a byproduct of the debate over Vedic authority. The Navya-Vaiyākaranas enter this debate last (with Bhattoji Dïksita and Kaunda Bhatta), with the declared aim of refuting the arguments of the Mïmāmsakas and Naiyāyikas by bringing to light the shortcomings in their understanding of Pāninian grammar. The central argument has focused on the capacity of the initial contexts, with the network of issues to which the principal qualificand theory is connected, to render intelligible the presuppositions and aims behind the complex linguistic justification of the classical and late stages of this debate. Reading the debate in this light not only reveals the rationality and internal coherence of each position beyond the linguistic arguments, but makes it possible to understand why the thinkers of the three schools have continued to hold on to three mutually exclusive positions. They are defending not only their version of the principal qualificand theory, but (though not openly acknowledged) the entire network of arguments, linguistic and/or extra-linguistic, to which this theory is connected, as well as the presuppositions and aims underlying these arguments.

Preemptive treatment approach to cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection in solid organ transplant patients: relationship between compliance with the guidelines and prevention of CMV morbidity.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) remains a major cause of morbidity in solid organ transplant patients. In order to reduce CMV morbidity, we designed a program of routine virological monitoring that included throat and urine CMV shell vial culture, along with peripheral blood leukocyte (PBL) shell vial quantitative culture for 12 weeks post-transplantation, as well as 8 weeks after treatment for acute rejection. The program also included preemptive ganciclovir treatment for those patients with the highest risk of developing CMV disease, i.e., with either high-level viremia (>10 infectious units [IU]/106 PBL) or low-level viremia (<10 IU/106 PBL) and either D+/R- CMV serostatus or treatment for graft rejection. During 1995-96, 90 solid organ transplant recipients (39 kidneys, 28 livers, and 23 hearts) were followed up. A total of 60 CMV infection episodes occurred in 45 patients. Seventeen episodes were symptomatic. Of 26 episodes managed according to the program, only 4 presented with CMV disease and none died. No patient treated preemptively for asymptomatic infection developed disease. In contrast, among 21 episodes managed in non-compliance with the program (i.e., the monitoring was not performed or preemptive treatment was not initiated despite a high risk of developing CMV disease), 12 episodes turned into symptomatic infection (P=0.0048 compared to patients treated preemptively), and 2 deaths possibly related to CMV were recorded. This difference could not be explained by an increased proportion of D+/R- patients or an increased incidence of rejection among patients with episodes treated in non-compliance with the program. Our data identify compliance with guidelines as an important factor in effectively reducing CMV morbidity through preemptive treatment, and suggest that the complexity of the preemptive approach may represent an important obstacle to the successful prevention of CMV morbidity by this approach in the regular healthcare setting.

Investigating the relationship between pollination strategies and the size-advantage model in zoophilous plants using the reproductive biology of Arum cylindraceum and other European Arum species as case studies

The size-advantage model (SAM) explains the temporal variation of energetic investment on reproductive structures (i.e. male and female gametes and reproductive organs) in long-lived hermaphroditic plants and animals. It proposes that an increase in the resources available to an organism induces a higher relative investment on the most energetically costly sexual structures. In plants, pollination interactions are known to play an important role in the evolution of floral features. Because the SAM directly concerns flower characters, pollinators are expected to have a strong influence on the application of the model. This hypothesis, however, has never been tested. Here, we investigate whether the identity and diversity of pollinators can be used as a proxy to predict the application of the SAM in exclusive zoophilous plants. We present a new approach to unravel the dynamics of the model and test it on several widespread Arum (Araceae) species. By identifying the species composition, abundance and spatial variation of arthropods trapped in inflorescences, we show that some species (i.e. A. cylindraceum and A. italicum) display a generalist reproductive strategy, relying on the exploitation of a low number of dipterans, in contrast to the pattern seen in the specialist A. maculatum (pollinated specifically by two fly species only). Based on the model presented here, the application of the SAM is predicted for the first two and not expected in the latter species, those predictions being further confirmed by allometric measures. We here demonstrate that while an increase in the female zone occurs in larger inflorescences of generalist species, this does not happen in species demonstrating specific pollinators. This is the first time that this theory is both proposed and empirically tested in zoophilous plants. Its overall biological importance is discussed through its application in other non-Arum systems.