Statistical evidences of cyclic changes in volcanic gas chemistry composition by inverse modelling

The identification of compositional changes in fumarolic gases of active and quiescent volcanoes is one of the mostimportant targets in monitoring programs. From a general point of view, many systematic (often cyclic) and randomprocesses control the chemistry of gas discharges, making difficult to produce a convincing mathematical-statisticalmodelling.Changes in the chemical composition of volcanic gases sampled at Vulcano Island (Aeolian Arc, Sicily, Italy) fromeight different fumaroles located in the northern sector of the summit crater (La Fossa) have been analysed byconsidering their dependence from time in the period 2000-2007. Each intermediate chemical composition has beenconsidered as potentially derived from the contribution of the two temporal extremes represented by the 2000 and 2007samples, respectively, by using inverse modelling methodologies for compositional data. Data pertaining to fumarolesF5 and F27, located on the rim and in the inner part of La Fossa crater, respectively, have been used to achieve theproposed aim. The statistical approach has allowed us to highlight the presence of random and not random fluctuations,features useful to understand how the volcanic system works, opening new perspectives in sampling strategies and inthe evaluation of the natural risk related to a quiescent volcano

Impact of Balanced or Unbalanced Karyotype At Diagnosis On Prognosis of CML: Long-Term Observation From 1346 Patients of the Randomized CML Study IV

Introduction: Acquired genetic instability in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a consequence of the translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11) and the resulting BCR-ABL fusion causes the continuous acquisition of additional chromosomal aberrations and mutations and thereby progression to accelerated phase (AP) and blast crisis (BC). At least 10% of patients in chronic phase (CP) CML show additional alterations at diagnosis. This proportion rises during the course of the disease up to 80% in BC. Acquisition of chromosomal changes during treatment is considered as a poor prognostic indicator, whereas the impact of chromosomal aberrations at diagnosis depends on their type. Patients with major route additional chromosomal alterations (major ACA: +8, i(17)(q10), +19, +der(22)t(9;22)(q34;q11) have a worse outcome whereas patients with minor route ACA show no difference in overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) compared to patients with the standard translocation, a variant translocation or the loss of the Y chromosome (Fabarius et al., Blood 2011). However, the impact of balanced vs. unbalanced (gains or losses of chromosomes or chromosomal material) karyotypes at diagnosis on prognosis of CML is not clear yet. Patients and methods: Clinical and cytogenetic data of 1346 evaluable out of 1544 patients with Philadelphia and BCR-ABL positive CP CML randomized until December 2011 to the German CML-Study IV, a randomized 5-arm trial to optimize imatinib therapy by combination, or dose escalation and stem cell transplantation were investigated. There were 540 females (40%) and 806 males (60%). Median age was 53 years (range, 16-88). The impact of additional cytogenetic aberrations in combination with an unbalanced or balanced karyotype at diagnosis on time to complete cytogenetic and major molecular remission (CCR, MMR), PFS and OS was investigated. Results: At diagnosis 1174/1346 patients (87%) had the standard t(9;22)(q34;q11) only and 75 patients (6%) had a variant t(v;22). In 64 of 75 patients with t(v;22), only one further chromosome was involved in the translocation; In 8 patients two, in 2 patients three, and in one patient four further chromosomes were involved. Ninety seven patients (7%) had additional cytogenetic aberrations. Of these, 44 patients (3%) lacked the Y chromosome (-Y) and 53 patients (4%) had major or minor ACA. Thirty six of the 53 patients (2.7%) had an unbalanced karyotype (including all patients with major route ACA and patients with other unbalanced alterations like -X, del(1)(q21), del(5)(q11q14), +10, t(15;17)(p10;p10), -21), and 17 (1.3%) a balanced karyotype with reciprocal translocations [e.g. t(1;21); t(2;16); t(3;12); t(4;6); t(5;8); t(15;20)]. After a median observation time of 5.6 years for patients with t(9;22), t(v;22), -Y, balanced and unbalanced karyotype with ACA median times to CCR were 1.05, 1.05, 1.03, 2.58 and 1.51 years, to MMR 1.31, 1.51, 1.65, 2.97 and 2.07 years. Time to CCR and MMR was longer in patients with balanced karyotypes (data statistically not significant). 5-year PFS was 89%, 78%, 87%, 94% and 69% and 5-year OS 91%, 87%, 89%, 100% and 73%, respectively. In CML patients with unbalanced karyotype PFS (p<0.001) and OS (p<0.001) were shorter than in patients with standard translocation (or balanced karyotype; p<0.04 and p<0.07, respectively). Conclusion: We conclude that the prognostic impact of additional cytogenetic alterations at diagnosis of CML is heterogeneous and consideration of their types may be important. Not only patients with major route ACA at diagnosis of CML but also patients with unbalanced karyotypes identify a group of patients with shorter PFS and OS as compared to all other patients. Therefore, different therapeutic options such as intensive therapy with the most potent tyrosine kinase inhibitors or stem cell transplantation are required.

Assessment of liver tumor response by high-field (3T) MRI after radiofrequency ablation: Short- and mid-term evolution of diffusion parameters within the ablation zone.

PURPOSE: To compare the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of malignant liver lesions on diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI) before and after successful radiofrequency ablation (RF ablation). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty-two patients with 43 malignant liver lesions (23/20: metastases/hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC)) underwent liver MRI (3.0T) before (<1month) and after RF ablation (at 1, 3 and 6months) using T2-, gadolinium-enhanced T1- and DWI-weighted MR sequences. Jointly, two radiologists prospectively measured ADCs for each lesion by means of two different regions of interest (ROIs), first including the whole lesion and secondly the area with the visibly most restricted diffusion (MRDA) on ADC map. Changes of ADCs were evaluated with ANOVA and Dunnett tests. RESULTS: Thirty-one patients were successfully treated, while one patient was excluded due to focal recurrence. In metastases (n=22), the ADC in the whole lesion and in MRDA showed an up-and-down evolution. In HCC (n=20), the evolution of ADC was more complex, but with significantly higher values (p=0.013) at 1 and 6months after RF ablation. CONCLUSION: The ADC values of malignant liver lesions successfully treated by RF ablation show a predictable evolution and may help radiologists to monitor tumor response after treatment.

Morphologic and electroretinographic phenotype of SR-BI knockout mice after a long-term atherogenic diet.

PURPOSE: To evaluate functional and ultrastructural changes in the retina of scavenger receptor B1 (SR-BI) knockout (KO) mice consuming a high fat cholate (HFC) diet. METHODS: Three-month-old male KO and wild-type (WT) mice were fed an HFC diet for 30 weeks. After diet supplementation, plasma cholesterol levels and electroretinograms were analyzed. Neutral lipids were detected with oil red O, and immunohistochemistry was performed on cryostat ocular tissue sections. The retina, Bruch's membrane (BM), retinal pigment epithelium (RPE), and choriocapillaris (CC) were analyzed by transmission electron microscopy. RESULTS: Using the WT for reference, ultrastructural changes were recorded in HFC-fed SR-BI KO mice, including lipid inclusions, a patchy disorganization of the photoreceptor outer segment (POS) and the outer nuclear layer (ONL), and BM thickening with sparse sub-RPE deposits. Within the CC, there was abnormal disorganization of collagen fibers localized in ectopic sites with sparse and large vacuolization associated with infiltration of macrophages in the subretinal space, reflecting local inflammation. These lesions were associated with electroretinographic abnormalities, particularly increasing implicit time in a- and b-wave scotopic responses. Abnormal vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) staining was detected in the outer nuclear layer. CONCLUSIONS: HFC-fed SR-BI KO mice thus presented sub-RPE lipid-rich deposits and functional and morphologic alterations similar to some features observed in dry AMD. The findings lend further support to the hypothesis that atherosclerosis causes retinal and subretinal damage that increases susceptibility to some forms of AMD.

Spatio-temporal micromeasurements of the oxygen uptake in the developing chick embryo.

A method has been developed for the determination of the oxygen uptake of small areas (0.01 mm2) in an entire chick embryo cultured in vitro under defined metabolic conditions. It is based on the recordings of the spectral changes of the hemoglobin used as oxygen source for the respiring tissue (Barzu and Borza, 1967). Rapid scanning of the hemoglobin absorbance over the preparation allows a comparison of the O2 uptake of various regions. Values of the order of 10(-2) 1 O2 . min-2 are measured in less than 10 sec with a spatial resolution of 100 micron. The differentiation of embryonic tissue is not disturbed by the measurements. The O2 diffusion in the media and in the tissue has been analyzed by digital simulation. The O2 uptake of the Hensen's node was measured from embryos starting at the stage of definitive primitive streak (stage 4) up to the stage of 10 somites. It increases from 0.6 to 1.1 nl . h-1 with a marked acceleration between stages 4 and 5. The values corrected for the protein content of the Hensen's node at stage 4, 5, 6 and 8 are 32, 30 and 28 microliter . mg-1 . h-1 respectively. The first scanning results show different patterns of the O2 utake at the level of the Hensen's node and of the neural plate. At stage 6-7, the corrected O2 uptake is 30 microliter . mg-1 . h-1 for . the former and 43 microliter . mg-1 . h-1 for the latter.

Biodiversity and global change in Mediterranean benthic communities: perspectives over large spatial and long temporal scales

Many terrestrial and marine systems are experiencing accelerating decline due to the effects of global change. This situation has raised concern about the consequences of biodiversity losses for ecosystem function, ecosystem service provision, and human well-being. Coastal marine habitats are a main focus of attention because they harbour a high biological diversity, are among the most productive systems of the world and present high anthropogenic interaction levels. The accelerating degradation of many terrestrial and marine systems highlights the urgent need to evaluate the consequence of biodiversity loss. Because marine biodiversity is a dynamic entity and this study was interested global change impacts, this study focused on benthic biodiversity trends over large spatial and long temporal scales. The main aim of this project was to investigate the current extent of biodiversity of the high diverse benthic coralligenous community in the Mediterranean Sea, detect its changes, and predict its future changes over broad spatial and long temporal scales. These marine communities are characterized by structural species with low growth rates and long life spans; therefore they are considered particularly sensitive to disturbances. For this purpose, this project analyzed permanent photographic plots over time at four locations in the NW Mediterranean Sea. The spatial scale of this study provided information on the level of species similarity between these locations, thus offering a solid background on the amount of large scale variability in coralligenous communities; whereas the temporal scale was fundamental to determine the natural variability in order to discriminate between changes observed due to natural factors and those related to the impact of disturbances (e.g. mass mortality events related to positive thermal temperatures, extreme catastrophic events). This study directly addressed the challenging task of analyzing quantitative biodiversity data of these high diverse marine benthic communities. Overall, the scientific knowledge gained with this research project will improve our understanding in the function of marine ecosystems and their trajectories related to global change.

Effects of amygdala-hippocampal stimulation on interictal epileptic discharges.

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of different nuclei is being evaluated as a treatment for epilepsy. While encouraging results have been reported, the effects of changes in stimulation parameters have been poorly studied. Here the effects of changes of pulse waveform in high frequency DBS (130Hz) of the amygdala-hippocampal complex (AH) are presented. These effects were studied on interictal epileptic discharge rates (IEDRs). AH-DBS was implemented with biphasic versus pseudo monophasic charge balanced pulses, in two groups of patients: six with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) associated with hippocampal sclerosis (HS) and six with non lesional (NLES) temporal epilepsy. In patients with HS, IEDRs were significantly reduced with AH-DBS applied with biphasic pulses in comparison with monophasic pulse. IEDRs were significantly reduced in only two patients with NLES independently to stimulus waveform. Comparison to long-term seizure outcome suggests that IEDRs could be used as a neurophysiological marker of chronic AH-DBS and they suggest that the waveform of the electrical stimuli can play a major role in DBS. We concluded that biphasic stimuli are more efficient than pseudo monophasic pulses in AH-DBS in patients with HS. In patients with NLES epilepsy, other parameters relevant for efficacy of DBS remain to be determined.

Temporal diffeomorphic free-form deformation: application to motion and strain estimation from 3D echocardiography

This paper presents a new registration algorithm, called Temporal Di eomorphic Free Form Deformation (TDFFD), and its application to motion and strain quanti cation from a sequence of 3D ultrasound (US) images. The originality of our approach resides in enforcing time consistency by representing the 4D velocity eld as the sum of continuous spatiotemporal B-Spline kernels. The spatiotemporal displacement eld is then recovered through forward Eulerian integration of the non-stationary velocity eld. The strain tensor iscomputed locally using the spatial derivatives of the reconstructed displacement eld. The energy functional considered in this paper weighs two terms: the image similarity and a regularization term. The image similarity metric is the sum of squared di erences between the intensities of each frame and a reference one. Any frame in the sequence can be chosen as reference. The regularization term is based on theincompressibility of myocardial tissue. TDFFD was compared to pairwise 3D FFD and 3D+t FFD, bothon displacement and velocity elds, on a set of synthetic 3D US images with di erent noise levels. TDFFDshowed increased robustness to noise compared to these two state-of-the-art algorithms. TDFFD also proved to be more resistant to a reduced temporal resolution when decimating this synthetic sequence. Finally, this synthetic dataset was used to determine optimal settings of the TDFFD algorithm. Subsequently, TDFFDwas applied to a database of cardiac 3D US images of the left ventricle acquired from 9 healthy volunteers and 13 patients treated by Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT). On healthy cases, uniform strain patterns were observed over all myocardial segments, as physiologically expected. On all CRT patients, theimprovement in synchrony of regional longitudinal strain correlated with CRT clinical outcome as quanti ed by the reduction of end-systolic left ventricular volume at follow-up (6 and 12 months), showing the potential of the proposed algorithm for the assessment of CRT.

Language acquisition during a stay abroad period following formal instruction: temporal effects on oral fluency development

This study investigates the development of fluency in 30 advanced L2 learners of English over a period of 15 months. In order to measure fluency, several temporal variables and hesitation phenomena are analyzed and compared. Oral competence is assessed by means of an oral interview carried out by the learners. Data collection takes place at three different times: before (T1) and after (T2) a six-month period of FI (80 hours) in the home university, and after a three-month SA term (T3). The data is analyzed quantitatively. Developmental gains in fluency are measured for the whole period, adopting a view of complementarity between the two learning contexts. From these results, a group of high fluency speakers is identified. Correlations between fluency gains and individual and contextual variables are executed and a more qualitative analysis is performed for high fluency speakers' performance and behavior. Results show an overall development of students' oral fluency during a period of 15 months favored by the combination of a period of FI at home followed by a 3-months SA.

SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.

Age-specific fitness components and their temporal variation in the barn owl.

Theory predicts that temporal variability plays an important role in the evolution of life histories, but empirical studies evaluating this prediction are rare. In constant environments, fitness can be measured by the population growth rate lambda, and the sensitivity of lambda to changes in fitness components estimates selection on these traits. In variable environments, fitness is measured by the stochastic growth rate lambda(S), and stochastic sensitivities estimate selection pressure. Here we examine age-specific schedules for reproduction and survival in a barn owl population (Tyto alba). We estimated how temporal variability affected fitness and selection, accounting for sampling variance. Despite large sample sizes of old individuals, we found no strong evidence for senescence. The most variable fitness components were associated with reproduction. Survival was less variable. Stochastic simulations showed that the observed variation decreased fitness by about 30%, but the sensitivities of lambda and lambda(S) to changes in all fitness components were almost equal, suggesting that temporal variation had negligible effects on selection. We obtained these results despite high observed variability in the fitness components and relatively short generation time of the study organism, a situation in which temporal variability should be particularly important for natural selection and early senescence is expected.

Long-term cerebral plasticity-related gene expression : a study of the respective role of CBP and CRTC1 in CREB transcriptional activation

1.1 AbstractThe treatment of memory disorders and cognitive deficits in various forms of mental retardation may greatly benefit from a better understanding of the molecular and cellular mechanisms of memory formation. Different forms of memory have distinct molecular requirements.Short-term memory (STM) is thought to be mediated by covalent modifications of existing synaptic molecules, such as phosphorylation or dephosphorylation of enzymes, receptors or ion channels. In contrast, long-term memoiy (LTM) is thought to be mediated by growth of new synapses and restructuring of existing synapses. There is extensive evidence that changes in gene expression and de novo protein synthesis are key processes for LTM formation. In this context, the transcription factor CREB (cAMP-response element-binding protein) was shown to be crucial. Activation of CREB requires phosphorylation of a serine residue (Ser-133), and the subsequent recruitment of a coactivator called CREB-binding protein (CBP). Moreover, we have recently shown that another coactivator called CREB Regulated Transcription Coactivator 1 (CRTC1) functions as a calcium- and cAMP-sensitive coincidence detector in neurons, and is involved in hippocampal long-term synaptic plasticity. Given the importance of cAMP and calcium signaling for plasticity-related gene expression in neurons and in astrocytes, we sought to determine the respective involvement of the CREB coactivators CBP and CRTC1 in CREB-mediated transcription.We developed various strategies to selectively interfere with these CREB coactivators in mouse primary neurons and in astrocytes in vitro. However, despite several pieces of evidence implicating CBP and/or CRTC1 in the regulation of neuronal plasticity genes, we could not clearly determine the respective requirement of these coactivators for the activation of these genes. Nevertheless, we showed that calcineurin activity, which is important for CRTC1 nuclear translocation, is necessary for the expression of some CREB-regulated plasticity genes. We associated this phenomena to physiopathological conditions observed in Down's syndrome. In addition, we demonstrated that in astrocytes, noradrenaline stimulates CREB-target gene expression through β-adrenergic receptor activation, intracellular cAMP pathway activation, and CRTC-induced CREB transactivation.Defining the respective role of CREB and its coactivators CBP and CRTC1 in neuronal and astrocytic cultures in vitro sets the stage for future in vivo studies and for the possible development of new therapeutic strategies to improve the treatment of memoiy and cognitive disorders.1.2 RésuméUne meilleure connaissance des mécanismes moléculaires et cellulaires responsables de la formation de la mémoire pourrait grandement améliorer le traitement des troubles de la mémoire ainsi que des déficits cognitifs observés dans différentes formes de pathologies psychiatriques telles que le retard mental. Les différentes formes de mémoire dépendent de processus moléculaires différents.La mémoire à court terme (STM) semble prendre forme suite à des modifications covalentes de molécules synaptiques préexistantes, telles que la phosphorylation ou la déphosphorylation d'enzymes, de récepteurs ou de canaux ioniques. En revanche, la mémoire à long terme (LTM) semble être due à la génération de nouvelles synapses et à la restructuration des synapses existantes. De nombreuses études ont permis de démontrer que les changements dans l'expression des gènes et la synthèse de protéine de novo sont des processus clés pour la formation de la LTM. Dans ce contexte, le facteur de transcription CREB (cAMP-response element-binding protein) s'est avéré être un élément crucial. L'activation de CREB nécessite la phosphorylation d'un résidu sérine (Ser-133), et le recrutement d'un coactivateur nommé CBP (CREB binding protein). En outre, nous avons récemment démontré qu'un autre coactivateur de CREB nommé CRTC1 (CREB Regulated Transcription Coactivator 1) agit comme un détecteur de coïncidence de l'AMP cyclique (AMPc) et du calcium dans les neurones et qu'il est impliqué dans la formation de la plasticité synaptique à long terme dans l'hippocampe. Etant donné l'importance des voies de l'AMPc et du calcium dans l'expression des gènes impliqués dans la plasticité cérébrale, nous voulions déterminer le rôle respectif des coactivateurs de CREB, CBP et CRTC1.Nous avons développé diverses stratégies pour interférer de façon sélective avec les coactivateurs de CREB dans les neurones et dans les astrocytes chez la souris in vitro. Nos résultats indiquent que CBP et CRTC1 sont tous deux impliqués dans la transcription dépendante de CREB induite par l'AMPc et le calcium dans les neurones. Cependant, malgré plusieurs évidences impliquant CBP et/ou CRTC1 dans l'expression de gènes de plasticité neuronale, nous n'avons pas pu déterminer clairement leur nécessité respective pour l'activation de ces gènes. Toutefois, nous avons montré que l'activité de la calcineurine, dont dépend la translocation nucléaire de CRTC1, est nécessaire à l'expression de certains de ces gènes. Nous avons pu associer ce phénomène à une condition physiopathologique observée dans le syndrome de Down. Nous avons également montré que dans les astrocytes, la noradrénaline stimule l'expression de gènes cibles de CREB par une activation des récepteurs β- adrénergiques, l'activation de la voie de l'AMPc et la transactivation de CREB par les CRTCs.Définir le rôle respectif de CREB et de ses coactivateurs CBP et CRTC1 dans les neurones et dans les astrocytes in vitro permettra d'acquérir les connaissances nécessaires à de futures études in vivo et, à plus long terme d'éventuellement développer des stratégies thérapeutiques pour améliorer les traitements des troubles cognitifs.

Long-term effects of ACTH combined with angiotensin II on steroidogenesis and adrenal zona glomerulosa morphology in the rat.

To test the hypothesis that the trophic action of angiotensin II on the adrenal zona glomerulosa may allow a sustained stimulation of aldosterone by ACTH by preventing the morphological changes of the zona glomerulosa cells into zona fasciculata-like elements we investigated the effects in rats of a 6-day treatment with ACTH (100 micrograms/kg/day) alone or combined with angiotensin II (300 ng/kg/day) on corticosterone and aldosterone production and adrenal morphology. The responsiveness of both steroids to an acute ACTH dose was also studied on the last day of long-term treatment. Morphologic data showed that prolonged ACTH treatment stimulated the growth of zona glomerulosa cells, though it transformed the tubulo-lamellar cristae of mitochondria into a homogeneous population of vesicles. Angiotensin II furthered the trophic effects of ACTH but prevented the mitochondrial transformation. Despite its ability to conserve the well differentiated aspect of the zona glomerulosa cells, the administration of angiotensin II was unable to prevent the fall in the secretion of aldosterone caused by chronic ACTH treatment and its subsequent unresponsiveness to ACTH stimulation.

Secondary Accident Data Fusion for Assessing Long-Term Performance of Transportation Systems, 2007

Secondary accident statistics can be useful for studying the impact of traffic incident management strategies. An easy-to-implement methodology is presented for classifying secondary accidents using data fusion of a police accident database with intranet incident reports. A current method for classifying secondary accidents uses a static threshold that represents the spatial and temporal region of influence of the primary accident, such as two miles and one hour. An accident is considered secondary if it occurs upstream from the primary accident and is within the duration and queue of the primary accident. However, using the static threshold may result in both false positives and negatives because accident queues are constantly varying. The methodology presented in this report seeks to improve upon this existing method by making the threshold dynamic. An incident progression curve is used to mark the end of the queue throughout the entire incident. Four steps in the development of incident progression curves are described. Step one is the processing of intranet incident reports. Step two is the filling in of incomplete incident reports. Step three is the nonlinear regression of incident progression curves. Step four is the merging of individual incident progression curves into one master curve. To illustrate this methodology, 5,514 accidents from Missouri freeways were analyzed. The results show that secondary accidents identified by dynamic versus static thresholds can differ by more than 30%.

Analyse systémique et prospective des usages de l'eau dans la région de Crans-Montana-Sierre (Suisse)

Crans-Montana-Sierre is a tourist area locateci in Rhone valley in central Valais, cha-racterized by dry climate and scarce summer precipitations. More than other regions in Switzerland, this area has suffered the effects of the drought (heat wave) that affec¬ted all Western Europe during summer 2003. In the future, climate change together with societal and economic development will signicantly modify the water need of the region and, consequently, may increase the potential conflicts of interest. Within a long term planning strategy, decision-makers require precise information about the current amount of water needed in the region, with particular attention to temporal and spatial concentration, and the forecasted amount for 2050. This work therefore aims at estimating the variation of the water demand by taking into account the influence of climate change (CH2011) and socio-economic scenarios, developed in cooperation with the competent authorities. This thesis, whose aim is to study the water management and water uses is a core part of the MontanAqua project "Water management in times of scarcity and global change" mainly because of its interdisciplinary topic at the interface between water resources, land development and the socio-political structure. Results show that socio-economic development by 2050 could have a greater impact than expected climate changes (CH2011, A1B scenarios) for the same time horizon for water demand. Demography, spatial planning, tourism and economic development are just some of the factors that could significantly affect the water consumption of the Crans-Montana-Sierre region. Compared with the future water resources available, the maximal water demand forecasted by the socio-economic scenarios developed within the project MontanAqua, could not always be satisfied. This issue, like extreme climate phenomena (as it was the summer drought occurred in 2003 or in April / May 2011), could be mitigated adopting regional management policies relating to a more rational water use and preventive storage of water resource. - Crans-Montana-Sierre est une région touristique située dans la vallée du Rhône; dans le Valais central, qui se caractérise par un climat relativement pauvre en précipitations et qui plus que d'autres a subi les effets de la sécheresse qui a touché l'Europe occidentale durant l'été 2003. À l'avenir, les changements climatiques ainsi que le développement socio-économique modifieront de manière significative les besoins en eau de la région, ce qui risque de faire augmenter les rivalités d'usage concernant cette ressource. Afin de jouer à l'avance, les décideurs ont besoin d'informations précises sur la quantité d'eau nécessaire à la région, avec une attention particulière à sa concentration temporelle et spatiale, à l'heure actuelle et à l'horizon 2050. Ce travail vise donc à estimer la variation de la demande en eau en tenant compte de l'influence des changements climatiques (CH2011) et des scénarios socio-économiques, élaborés en collaboration avec les autorités compétentes. Cette thèse, qui met l'accent sur les usages de l'eau fait partie du projet Montan Aqua « Gestion de l'eau en temps de pénurie et de changement global », est à l'intersection entre les ressources hydriques, l'aménagement du territoire et son organisation socio-politique, fait qui la met, non pas par son importance, mais par son emplacement et ses interconnexions, au coeur de cette recherche. Les résultats obtenus montrent comment les développements socio-économiques d'ici à 2050 ont un impact potentiellement plus important que les changements climatiques prévus par les scénarios AlB de CH2011 pour le même horizon temporel sur la demande en eau. Démographie, aménagement du territoire et contexte économico-touristique, ne sont que quelques-uns des facteurs qui ont la capacité d'agir significativement sur les usages de l'eau en ce qui concerne les aspects qualitatif et quantitatif de la région de Crans-Montana-Sierre. Par rapport aux ressources en eau disponibles à l'avenir, la demande maximale d'eau prévue par les scénarios socio-économiques développés au sein du projet MontanAqua risque de ne pas être toujours satisfaite. Ce danger et la manifestation de phénomènes climatiques extrêmes, comme la sécheresse estivale survenue en 2003 ou celle d'avril/mai 2011, ne pourront être atténués que par l'adoption de politiques de gestion à l'échelle régionale favorisant une utilisation plus rationnelle et un stockage préventif de la ressource en eau.