Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Assessment of synovitis with contrast-enhanced MRI using a whole-joint semiquantitative scoring system in people with, or at high risk of, knee osteoarthritis: the MOST study

Objectives To introduce a comprehensive and reliable scoring system for the assessment of whole-knee joint synovitis based on contrast-enhanced (CE) MRI. Methods Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) is a cohort study of people with, or at high risk of, knee osteoarthritis (OA). Subjects are an unselected subset of MOST who volunteered for CE-MRI. Synovitis was assessed at 11 sites of the joint. Synovial thickness was scored semiquantitatively: grade 0 (< 2 mm), grade 1 (2-4 mm) and grade 2 (> 4 mm) at each site. Two musculoskeletal radiologists performed the readings and inter-and intrareader reliability was evaluated. Whole-knee synovitis was assessed by summing the scores from all sites. The association of Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index pain score with this summed score and with the maximum synovitis grade for each site was assessed. Results 400 subjects were included (mean age 58.8 +/- 7.0 years, body mass index 29.5 +/- 4.9 kg/m(2), 46% women). For individual sites, intrareader reliability (weighted kappa) was 0.67-1.00 for reader 1 and 0.60-1.00 for reader 2. Inter-reader agreement (kappa) was 0.67-0.92. For the summed synovitis scores, intrareader reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)) was 0.98 and 0.96 for each reader and inter-reader agreement (ICC) was 0.94. Moderate to severe synovitis in the parapatellar subregion was associated with the higher maximum pain score (adjusted OR (95% CI), 2.8 (1.4 to 5.4) and 3.1 (1.2 to 7.9), respectively). Conclusions A comprehensive semiquantitative scoring system for the assessment of whole-knee synovitis is proposed. It is reliable and identifies knees with pain, and thus is a potentially powerful tool for synovitis assessment in epidemiological OA studies.

Subchondral Cystlike Lesions Develop Longitudinally in Areas of Bone Marrow Edema-like Lesions in Patients with or at Risk for Knee Osteoarthritis: Detection with MR Imaging-The MOST Study

Purpose: To assess the association of prevalent bone marrow edema-like lesions (BMLs) and full-thickness cartilage loss with incident subchondral cyst-like lesions (SCs) in the knee to evaluate the bone contusion versus synovial fluid intrusion theories of SC formation. Materials and Methods: The Multicenter Osteoarthritis study is a longitudinal study of individuals who have or are at risk for knee osteoarthritis. The HIPAA-compliant protocol was approved by the institutional review boards of all participating centers, and written informed consent was obtained from all participants. Magnetic resonance images were acquired at baseline and 30-month follow-up and read semiquantitatively by using the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score system. The tibiofemoral and patellofemoral joints were subdivided into 14 subregions. BMLs and SCs were scored from 0 to 3. Cartilage morphology was scored from 0 to 6. The association of prevalent BMLs and full-thickness cartilage loss with incident SCs in the same subregion was assessed by using logistic regression with mutual adjustment for both predictors. Results: A total of 1283 knees were included. After adjustment for full-thickness cartilage loss, prevalent BMLs showed a strong and significant association with incident SCs in the same subregion, with an odds ratio of 12.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.9, 18.6). After adjustment for BMLs, prevalent full-thickness cartilage loss showed a significant but much less important association with incident SCs in the same subregion (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0, 2.0). There was no apparent relationship between severity of full-thickness cartilage loss at baseline and incident SCs. Conclusion: Prevalent BMLs strongly predict incident SCs in the same subregion, even after adjustment for full-thickness cartilage loss, which supports the bone contusion theory of SC formation. (C) RSNA, 2010

Short-Term Effects of Hydroxyethylstarch Resuscitation on Systemic and Regional Hemodynamics and Metabolism in a Brain-Dead Canine Model

Background. Hydroxyethylstarch (HES) is a synthetic polymer of glucose that has been suggested for therapeutic use in long-term plasma expansion. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that the infusion of a small volume of HES may provide benefits in systemic and regional hemodynamics and metabolism in a brain-dead canine model compared with large volume crystalloid resuscitation. Methods. Fourteen mongrel dogs were subjected to a brain-death protocol by consecutive insufflations of a balloon catheter in the epidural space. One hour after induction of brain-death, the animals were randomly assigned to two groups: NS (0.9% NaCl, 33mL/kg), and HES (6% HES 450/0.7, 17mL/Kg). Systemic and regional hemodynamics were evaluated using Swan-Ganz, ultrasonic flowprobes, and arterial catheters. Serial blood samples were collected for blood gas, electrolyte, and serum chemistry analysis. Systemic, hepatic, and splanchnic O(2)-derived variables were also calculated. Results. Epidural balloon insufflations induced a significant increase in mean arterial pressure, cardiac output (MAP and CO, respectively), regional blood flow, and systemic vascular resistance. Following the hyperdynamic phase, severe hypotension with normalization of systemic and regional blood flow was observed. Fluid resuscitation induced a prompt increase in MAP, CO, and portal vein blood flow, and a significant reduction in systemic and pulmonary vascular resistance. There were no differences between groups in metabolic indices, liver function tests (LFTs), or renal function tests. HES was more effective than NS in restoring cardiac performance in the first 2h after fluid resuscitation (P < 0.05). Both tested solutions partially and temporarily restored systemic and regional oxygen delivery. Conclusion. Small volumes of 6% HES 450/0.7 improved cardiovascular performance and provided the same regional hemodynamic and metabolic benefits of large volumes of isotonic crystalloid solutions. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Thyroid gland and cerebella lesions: New risk factors for sudden cardiac death in schizophrenia?

People with schizophrenia show a two to threefold increased risk to die prematurely than those without schizophrenia. Patients` life style, suicide, premature development of cardiovascular disease, high prevalence of metabolic syndrome and sudden cardiac death are well-known causes of the excess mortality. The exact pathophysiological cause of sudden death in schizophrenia is unknown, but it is likely that cardiac arrhythmia and respiratory abnormalities play potential role. Some antipsychotics may be associated with cardiovascular adverse events (e.g., QT interval prolongation) and lesions in specific brain regions, such as cerebella may be associated with respiratory abnormalities, suggesting that metabolic and brain dysfunction could lead to sudden cardiac death in patients with schizophrenia. However, exact knowledge regarding the association of these findings and schizophrenia is lacking. As subclinical hyperthyroidism has been linked with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and cerebella progressive atrophy has been observed in patients with schizophrenia, we propose in this paper that subclinical thyroid dysfunction and cerebella volume loss could be considered as new risk factor for sudden cardiac death in schizophrenia. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Serum cardiac troponin I concentration in dogs with ehrlichiosis

Background: Ehrlichiosis is a multisystemic disease with the potential to cause cardiomyocyte injury in naturally infected dogs. Hypothesis: Myocardial injury occurs in dogs infected with Ehrlichia canis. Animals: One-hundred and ninety-four dogs from Brazil with clinical and laboratory abnormalities indicative of ehrlichiosis. Sixteen healthy dogs served as controls. Methods: Electrocardiogram, echocardiogram, noninvasive blood pressure measurement, and serum cardiac troponin I (cTnI) concentrations were evaluated. Serologic assays and PCR determined the exposure and infection status for E. canis, Anaplasma spp., Babesia canis vogeli, Bartonella spp., Borrelia burgdorferi, Dirofilaria immitis, Ehrlichia chaffeensis, Ehrlichia ewingii, Leishmania chagasi, and spotted-fever group Rickettsia. Dogs were assigned to groups according to PCR status: E. canis infected, infected with other vector-borne organisms, sick dogs lacking PCR evidence for infection, and healthy controls. Results: E. canis-infected dogs had higher serum cTnI concentrations than controls (median: 0.04 ng/dL; range 0.04-9.12 ng/dL; control median: 0.04 ng/dL; range: 0.04-0.10 ng/dL; P = .012), and acute E. canis infection was associated with myocardial injury (odds ratio [OR]: 2.67, confidence interval [CI] 95%: 1.12-6.40, P = .027). Severity of anemia was correlated with increased risk of cardiomyocyte damage (r = 0.84, P < .001). Dogs with clinical signs of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) were at higher risk for myocardial injury than were other sick dogs (OR: 2.55, CI 95%: 1.31-4.95, P = .005). Conclusions and Clinical Importance: Acute infection with E. canis is a risk factor for myocardial injury in naturally infected Brazilian dogs. Severity of anemia and SIRS might contribute to the pathophysiology of myocardial damage.

Protective effects of carvedilol on systemic vascular damage induced by angiotensin II: Organ-specific effects independent of antihypertensive effects

Background: The protective effect of carvedilol on multiple organ damage induced by angiotensin II (Ang II) remains unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the protective effect of carvedilol on the heart, liver, and kidney in rats infused with Ang II. Material/Methods: Wistar rats were randomly distributed into three groups: control (no treatment), continuously infused with Ang II (150 eta g/min for 72 hr), and treated with Ang II + carvedilol (90 mg/kg/d). Histological sections of the myocardium, kidney, and liver were analyzed for the presence of necrosis. Results: Ang II induced arterial hypertension which was not affected by carvedilol treatment (tail-cuff blood pressures, control: 125 +/- 13.6, Ang II: 163 +/- 27.3, Ang II + CV: 178 +/- 39.8 mmHg, p<0.05). Also, there were perivascular inflammation and necrosis in the myocardium, kidney, and hepatocytes necrosis around the terminal vein. Carvedilol treatment fully prevented damage to the heart and kidney and attenuated liver lesions induced by the Ang II infusion. Conclusions: The protective effect of carvedilol on perivascular damage induced by Ang II infusion depended on the target organ. The prevention of heart damage occurred independently of the antihypertensive effects of carvedilol.

Risk factors associated with leptospirosis in dairy goats under tropical conditions in Brazil

Serum samples from 248 adult dairy goats from 13 flocks with lowered fertility farmed in the Rio de Janeiro region of Brazil were examined for Leptospira antibodies by MAT with 24 serovars, cut off 100. A questionnaire was completed for each herd. Antibodies were detected in 20.8% of these goats, mainly to serovar Hardjo. Risk factors associated with seroprevalence to leptospirosis were the frequency of professional veterinary supervision (OR = 2.35), climate (OR = 2.63) and grazing for more than 2 h a day. Flock factors as size, type of milking and offering of food supplementation, as well as the location and topography, the type of animal housing or the presence of silos did not significantly affect seroprevalence. We suggest that a successful control program for goat leptospirosis should include a complete investigation of herd management practices, which could influence in the occurrence of the infection. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of Bartonella spp. in neotropical felids and evaluation of risk factors and hematological abnormalities associated with infection

Although antibodies to Bartonella henselae have been described in all neotropical felid species, DNA has been detected in only one species, Leopard us wiedii. The aim of this study was to determine whether DNA of Bartonella spp. could be detected in blood of other captive neotropical felids and evaluate risk factors and hematological findings associated with infection. Blood samples were collected from 57 small felids, including 1 Leopard us geoffroyi, 17 L wiedii, 22 Leopardus tigrinus, 14 Leopardus pardalis, and 3 Puma yagouaroundi; 10 blood samples from Panthera onca were retrieved from blood banks. Complete blood counts were performed on blood samples from small felids, while all samples were evaluated by PCR. DNA extraction was confirmed by amplification of the cat GAPDH gene. Bartonella spp. were assessed by amplifying a fragment of their 16S-23S rRNA intergenic spacer region; PCR products were purified and sequenced. For the small neotropical felids, risk factors [origin (wild-caught or zoo-born), gender, felid species, and flea exposure) were evaluated using exact multiple logistic regression. Hematological findings (anemia, polycythemia/hyperproteinemia, leukocytosis and leukopenia) were tested for association with infection using Fisher`s exact test. The 635 bp product amplified from 10 samples (10/67 = 14.92%) was identified as B. henselae by sequencing. Small neotropical felid males were more likely to be positive than females (95% CI = 0.00-0.451, p = 0.0028), however other analyzed variables were not considered risk factors (p > 0.05). Hematological abnormalities were not associated with infection (p > 0.05). This is the first report documenting B. henselae detection by PCR in several species of neotropical felids. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.