Monitoring and modelling the morphodynamic evolution of a breached barrier beach system

Predicting the evolution of a coastal cell requires the identification of the key drivers of morphology. Soft coastlines are naturally dynamic but severe storm events and even human intervention can accelerate any changes that are occurring. However, when erosive events such as barrier breaching occur with no obvious contributory factors, a deeper understanding of the underlying coastal processes is required. Ideally conclusions on morphological drivers should be drawn from field data collection and remote sensing over a long period of time. Unfortunately, when the Rossbeigh barrier beach in Dingle Bay, County Kerry, began to erode rapidly in the early 2000’s, eventually leading to it breaching in 2008, no such baseline data existed. This thesis presents a study of the morphodynamic evolution of the Inner Dingle Bay coastal system. The study combines existing coastal zone analysis approaches with experimental field data collection techniques and a novel approach to long term morphodynamic modelling to predict the evolution of the barrier beach inlet system. A conceptual model describing the long term evolution of Inner Dingle Bay in 5 stages post breaching was developed. The dominant coastal processes driving the evolution of the coastal system were identified and quantified. A new methodology of long term process based numerical modelling approach to coastal evolution was developed. This method was used to predict over 20 years of coastal evolution in Inner Dingle Bay. On a broader context this thesis utilised several experimental coastal zone data collection and analysis methods such as ocean radar and grain size trend analysis. These were applied during the study and their suitability to a dynamic coastal system was assessed.

Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

Modelling and control of a floating oscillating water column

A novel numerical model of a Bent Backwards Duct Buoy (BBDB) Oscillating Water Column (OWC) Wave Energy Converter was created based on existing isolated numerical models of the different energy conversion systems utilised by an OWC. The novel aspect of this numerical model is that it incorporates the interdependencies of the different power conversion systems rather than modelling each system individually. This was achieved by accounting for the dynamic aerodynamic damping caused by the changing turbine rotational velocity by recalculating the turbine damping for each simulation sample and applying it via a feedback loop. The accuracy of the model was validated using experimental data collected during the Components for Ocean Renewable Energy Systems (CORES) EU FP-7 project that was tested in Galway Bay, Ireland. During the verification process, it was discovered that the model could also be applied as a valuable tool when troubleshooting device performance. A new turbine was developed and added to a full scale model after being investigated using Computational Fluid Dynamics. The energy storage capacity of the impulse turbine was investigated by modelling the turbine with both high and low inertia and applying three turbine control theories to the turbine using the full scale model. A single Maximum Power Point Tracking algorithm was applied to the low-inertia turbine, while both a fixed and dynamic control algorithm was applied to the high-inertia turbine. These results suggest that the highinertia turbine could be used as a flywheel energy storage device that could help minimize output power variation despite the low operating speed of the impulse turbine. This research identified the importance of applying dynamic turbine damping to a BBDB OWC numerical model, revealed additional value of the model as a device troubleshooting tool, and found that an impulse turbine could be applied as an energy storage system.

Central Algarve karst system tufa-related dynamics, Portugal.

Geomorphological mapping is a powerful instrument improving the geomorphological interpretation and understanding of the processes and forms used in landscape studies, with the ability of organizing different thematic layers in the same map. The presented map provide relevant information about the different geomorphological units of the central Algarve (i.e. the Carboniferous flysch mountains; the Barrocal, with marly and karstified subunits), where a karst system is prominent. Solution karst morphologies and large dry areas are common in the elevated areas of the Barrocal, suggesting deep circulation of groundwater. These recharge areas feed the perched aquifers of the area, where discharge is controlled by the impervious lithologies (clay-rich strata of the turbidites, marls and argilites) in the valley bottoms or other leaks in dammed aquifers. In springs related to the main aquifers tufa are actively being formed and, close coupled to spring location, different tufa depositional systems develop.

Supporting land use change modelling with automated monitoring of land use dynamics in the La Plata River Basin.

2008

Modelling UV response of biomolecules: from electronic structure to ab-initio dynamics.

The interaction of organic chromophores with light initiates ultrafast processes in the timescale of femtoseconds. An atomistic understanding of the mechanism driving such photoinduced reactions opens up the door to exploit them for our benefit. This thesis studies the interactions of ultraviolet light with the DNA/RNA molecules and the amino-acid tryptophan. Using some of the most accurate electronic structure methods and sophisticated environmental modelling, the works documented herein enable quantitative comparisons with cutting-edge experimental data. The relaxation pathways undertaken by the excited molecule are revealed through static and dynamical investigations of the excited-state potential energy surface. The profound role played by the dynamic response of the environment to guide the excitation in these timescales is addressed thoroughly.

Coastal modelling studies for forecasting and remediation solutions

The coastal area along the Emilia-Romagna (ER), in the Italian side of the northern Adriatic Sea, is considered to implement an unstructured numerical ocean model with the aim to develop innovative tools for the coastal management and a forecasting system for the storm surge risk reduction. The Adriatic Sea has been the focus of several studies because of its peculiar dynamics driven by many forcings acting at basin and local scales. The ER coast is particularly exposed to storm surge events. In particular conditions, winds, tides and seicehs may combine and contribute to the flooding of the coastal area. The global sea level rise expected in the next decades will increase even more the hazard along the ER and Adriatic coast. Reliable Adriatic and Mediterranean scale numerical ocean models are now available to allow the dynamical downscaling of very high-resolution models in limited coastal areas. In this work the numerical ocean model SHYFEM is implemented in the Goro lagoon (named GOLFEM) and along the ER coast (ShyfER) to test innovative solutions against sea related coastal hazards. GOLFEM was succesfully applied to analyze the Goro lagoon dynamics and to assess the dynamical effects of human interventions through the analysis of what-if scenarios. The assessment of storm surge hazard in the Goro lagoon was carried out through the development of an ensemble storm surge forecasting system with GOLFEM using forcing from different operational meteorological and ocean models showing the fundamental importance of the boundary conditions. The ShyfER domain is used to investigate innovative solutions against storm surge related hazard along the ER coast. The seagrass is assessed as a nature-based solution (NBS) for coastal protection under present and future climate conditions. The results show negligible effects on sea level but sensible effects in reducing bottom current velocity.

Molecular modelling of organic functional materials

The investigation of the mechanisms lying behind the (photo-)chemical processes is fundamental to address and improve the design of new organic functional materials. In many cases, dynamics simulations represent the only tool to capture the system properties emerging from complex interactions between many molecules. Despite the outstanding progresses in calculation power, the only way to carry out such computational studies is to introduce several approximations with respect to a fully quantum mechanical (QM) description. This thesis presents an approach that combines QM calculations with a classical Molecular Dynamics (MD) approach by means of accurate QM-derived force fields. It is based on a careful selection of the most relevant molecular degrees of freedom, whose potential energy surface is calculated at QM level and reproduced by the analytic functions of the force field, as well as by an accurate tuning of the approximations introduced in the model of the process to be simulated. This is made possible by some tools developed purposely, that allow to obtain and test the FF parameters through comparison with the QM frequencies and normal modes. These tools were applied in the modelling of three processes: the npi* photoisomerisation of azobenzene, where the FF description was extended to the excited state too and the non-adiabatic events were treated stochastically with Tully fewest switching algorithm; the charge separation in donors-acceptors bulk heterojunction organic solar cells, where a tight-binding Hamiltonian was carefully parametrised and solved by means of a code, also written specifically; the effect of the protonation state on the photoisomerisation quantum yield of the aryl-azoimidazolium unit of the axle molecule of a rotaxane molecular shuttle. In each case, the QM-based MD models that were specifically developed gave noteworthy information about the investigated phenomena, proving to be a fundamental key for a deeper comprehension of several experimental evidences.

Modelling, simulation and control of rotary-wing aircraft in multi-agent scenario

The topic of this thesis is the design and the implementation of mathematical models and control system algorithms for rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicles to be used in cooperative scenarios. The use of rotorcrafts has many attractive advantages, since these vehicles have the capability to take-off and land vertically, to hover and to move backward and laterally. Rotary-wing aircraft missions require precise control characteristics due to their unstable and heavy coupling aspects. As a matter of fact, flight test is the most accurate way to evaluate flying qualities and to test control systems. However, it may be very expensive and/or not feasible in case of early stage design and prototyping. A good compromise is made by a preliminary assessment performed by means of simulations and a reduced flight testing campaign. Consequently, having an analytical framework represents an important stage for simulations and control algorithm design. In this work mathematical models for various helicopter configurations are implemented. Different flight control techniques for helicopters are presented with theoretical background and tested via simulations and experimental flight tests on a small-scale unmanned helicopter. The same platform is used also in a cooperative scenario with a rover. Control strategies, algorithms and their implementation to perform missions are presented for two main scenarios. One of the main contributions of this thesis is to propose a suitable control system made by a classical PID baseline controller augmented with L1 adaptive contribution. In addition a complete analytical framework and the study of the dynamics and the stability of a synch-rotor are provided. At last, the implementation of cooperative control strategies for two main scenarios that include a small-scale unmanned helicopter and a rover.

Advanced representation of the ocean/sea ice dynamics at high latitudes

Sea ice is a fundamental element of global climate system, with numerous impacts on the polar environment. The ongoing drastic changes in the Earth’s sea ice cover highlight the necessity of monitoring the polar regions and systematically evaluating the quality of different numerical products. The main objective of this thesis is to improve our knowledge of the representation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice using comprehensive global ocean reanalyses and coupled climate models. The dissertation will explore (i) the Antarctic marginal ice zone (MIZ) and pack ice area in the ensemble mean of four global ocean reanalyses called GREP; (ii) historical representation of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice state in HighResMIP models; (iii) the future evolution of Arctic sea ice in HighResMIP models. Global ocean reanalyses and GREP are found to adequately capture interannual and seasonal variability in both pack ice and MIZ areas at hemispheric and regional scales. The advantage of the ensemble-mean approach is proved as GREP smooths the strengths and weaknesses of single systems and provides the most consistent and reliable estimates. This work is intended to encourage the use of GREP in a wide range of applications. The analysis of sea ice representation in the coupled climate models shows no systematic impact of the increased horizontal resolution. We argue that a few minor improvements in sea ice representation with the enhanced horizontal resolution are presumably not worth the major effort of costly computations. The thesis highlights the critical importance to distinguish the MIZ from consolidated pack ice both for investigating changes in sea ice distribution and evaluating the product’s performance. Considering that the MIZ is predicted to dominate the Arctic sea ice cover, the model physics parameterizations and sea ice rheology might require modifications. The results of the work can be useful for modelling community.

Urban air mobility: modelling the future transport system

The advances in the aviation field, particularly the development of electric flying vehicles, as UAV and eVTOL, paved the way for setting Urban Air Mobility (UAM) services. UAM would provide services for passengers, goods and emergencies and could offer faster trips than ground ones. It is expected that early UAM operations will be performed at Very Low-Level airspace as 0-500 m Above Ground Level. The purpose of this research is to both explore the main features of UAM and test an aerial network model, which could be integrated in a multimodal transport system where ground and aerial mobility services are provided. Analyses on UAM transport system involved two sub-systems: the transport demand sub-system, i.e., the mobility requirements, and the transport supply sub-system, i.e., the service and facilities enabling mobility. At first, the UAM demand levels and features for an Airport Shuttle service have been explored through a suitable survey, by combining Revealed and Stated Preference methodologies, and by calibrating some discrete mode choice models. Then, the focus has been on the transport supply model for UAM services, by focusing on both the ground access points (vertiports) and the aerial network model. A suitable three-dimensional urban aerial network (3D-UAN) model that could support fast aerial connections between O/D pairs has been proposed. Some tests have been implemented to verify the feasibility of the proposed model. Some flying vehicles supporting an Airport Shuttle service have been simulated on the aerial network, which has been specified in terms of both topological features and link transport costs. The preliminary results have showed that the proposed 3D-UAN model could be suitable for supporting UAM services. As for transport engineering, the UAM system framework proposed in this thesis paves the way for further research on air-ground multimodality in urban areas.

Gyrokinetic modelling of plasma transport and investigation on test particle dynamics

Turbulent plasmas inside tokamaks are modeled and studied using guiding center theory, applied to charged test particles, in a Hamiltonian framework. The equations of motion for the guiding center dynamics, under the conditions of a constant and uniform magnetic field and turbulent electrostatic field are derived by averaging over the fast gyroangle, for the first and second order in the guiding center potential, using invertible changes of coordinates such as Lie transforms. The equations of motion are then made dimensionless, exploiting temporal and spatial periodicities of the model chosen for the electrostatic potential. They are implemented numerically in Python. Fast Fourier Transform and its inverse are used. Improvements to the original Python scripts are made, notably the introduction of a power-law curve fitting to account for anomalous diffusion, the possibility to integrate the equations in two steps to save computational time by removing trapped trajectories, and the implementation of multicolored stroboscopic plots to distinguish between trapped and untrapped guiding centers. The post-processing of the results is made in MATLAB. The values and ranges of the parameters chosen for the simulations are selected based on numerous simulations used as feedback tools. In particular, a recurring value for the threshold to detect trapped trajectories is evidenced. Effects of the Larmor radius, the amplitude of the guiding center potential and the intensity of its second order term are studied by analyzing their diffusive regimes, their stroboscopic plots and the shape of guiding center potentials. The main result is the identification of cases anomalous diffusion depending on the values of the parameters (mostly the Larmor radius). The transitions between diffusive regimes are identified. The presence of highways for the super-diffusive trajectories are unveiled. The influence of the charge on these transitions from diffusive to ballistic behaviors is analyzed.

Loading and damage modelling for an integrated SHM system of a prestressed concrete railway bridge in Naples

The thesis explores recent technology developments in the field of structural health monitoring and its application to railway bridge projects. It focuses on two main topics. First, service loads and effect of environmental actions are modelled. In particular, the train moving load and its interaction with rail track is considered with different degrees of detail. Hence, results are compared with real-time experimental measurements. Secondly, the work concerns the identification, definition and modelling process of damages for a prestressed concrete railway bridge, and their implementation inside FEM models. Along with a critical interpretation of the in-field measurements, this approach results in the development of undamaged and damaged databases for the AI-aided detection of anomalies and the definition of threshold levels to prompt automatic alert interventions. In conclusion, an innovative solution for the development of the railway weight-in-motion system is proposed.

Evolution Of The Deaths Registry System In Brazil: Associations With Changes In The Mortality Profile, Under-registration Of Death Counts, And Ill-defined Causes Of Death.

This paper examines the spatial pattern of ill-defined causes of death across Brazilian regions, and its relationship with the evolution of completeness of the deaths registry and changes in the mortality age profile. We make use of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department mortality database and population censuses from 1980 to 2010. We applied demographic methods to evaluate the quality of mortality data for 137 small areas and correct for under-registration of death counts when necessary. The second part of the analysis uses linear regression models to investigate the relationship between, on the one hand, changes in death counts coverage and age profile of mortality, and on the other, changes in the reporting of ill-defined causes of death. The completeness of death counts coverage increases from about 80% in 1980-1991 to over 95% in 2000-2010 at the same time the percentage of ill-defined causes of deaths reduced about 53% in the country. The analysis suggests that the government's efforts to improve data quality are proving successful, and they will allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of health and the mortality transition.

Late Quaternary drainage dynamics in northern Brazil based on the study of a large paleochannel from southwestern Marajó Island

Marajó Island shows an abundance of paleochannels easily mapped in its eastern portion, where vegetation consists mostly of savannas. SRTM data make possible to recognize paleochannels also in western Marajó, even considering the dense forest cover. A well preserved paleodrainage network from the adjacency of the town of Breves (southwestern Marajó Island) was investigated in this work combining remote sensing and sedimentological studies. The palimpsest drainage system consists of a large meander connected to narrower tributaries. Sedimentological studies revealed mostly sharp-based, fining upward sands for the channelized features, and interbedded muds and sands for floodplain areas. The sedimentary structures and facies successions are in perfect agreement with deposition in channelized and floodplain environments, as suggested by remote sensing mapping. The present study shows that this paleodrainage was abandoned during Late Pleistocene, slightly earlier than the Holocene paleochannel systems from the east part of the island. Integration of previous studies with the data available herein supports a tectonic origin, related to the opening of the Pará River along fault lineaments. This would explain the disappearance of large, north to northeastward migrating channel systems in southwestern Marajó Island, which were replaced by the much narrower, south to southeastward flowing modern channels.