A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.

Reliability Assessment of 3-D Space Frame Structures Applying Stochastic Finite Element Analysis

Throughout design development of satellite structure, stress engineer is usually challenged with randomness in applied loads and material properties. To overcome such problem, a risk-based design is applied which estimates satellite structure probability of failure under static and thermal loads. Determining probability of failure can help to update initially applied factors of safety that were used during structure preliminary design phase. These factors of safety are related to the satellite mission objective. Sensitivity-based analysis is to be implemented in the context of finite element analysis (probabilistic finite element method or stochastic finite element method (SFEM)) to determine the probability of failure for satellite structure or one of its components.

Community convergence and recruitment of keystone species as performance indicators of artificial reefs

An experimental artificial reefwas constructed in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland as part of trials to regenerate damaged biogenic reefs formed by the horse mussel Modiolus modiolus. Experimental reef plots were constructed using Pecten maximus shell as cultch. Clumps of live adult M. modiolus were translocated from nearby natural reefs into cultchwith a high profile (elevated cultch), cultch with a lowprofile (flattened cultch), as well as directly into the seafloor. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that translocated mussel clumps would increase habitat complexity thus accelerating community succession and enhancing natural recruitment of M. modiolus spat. These effects were predicted to be greater on elevated cultch due to greater protection from
predators and increased accessibility to food resources. Within the artificial reef array the translocated clumps had a significant positive effect on recruitment compared to cultch without mussels with average densities of spat settled on the translocated M. modiolus clumps ranging from 100 to 200 individuals m-2 compared to 4 to 52 spat m-2 on cultch without mussels. Recruitment of M. modiolus spat was also significantly higher on translocated horse mussels when compared to natural reefs where densities of 8–36 spat m-2 were recorded.
Reef elevation appeared to provide some degree of protection from predators but differences in translocated M. modiolus survival on the different elevation treatments were not significant. In total, 223 taxa were recorded 12 months after reef construction. The presence of translocated clumps ofM. modiolus was the main driver of the increases in faunal diversity and species abundance. Application of objective criteria to assess the performance of artificial reefs suggested that translocation of M. modiolus clumps alone achieved most of the restoration objectives. Consequently this pilot study demonstrates a straightforward and realistic intervention technique that could be used to kick start the regeneration and expansion of impacted mussel and similar biogenic reefs elsewhere.

Regularized Online Mixture of Gaussians for Background Subtraction

Mixture of Gaussians (MoG) modelling [13] is a popular approach to background subtraction in video sequences. Although the algorithm shows good empirical performance, it lacks theoretical justification. In this paper, we give a justification for it from an online stochastic expectation maximization (EM) viewpoint and extend it to a general framework of regularized online classification EM for MoG with guaranteed convergence. By choosing a special regularization function, l1 norm, we derived a new set of updating equations for l1 regularized online MoG. It is shown empirically that l1 regularized online MoG converge faster than the original online MoG .

Relative role of deterministic and stochastic determinants of soil animal community: a spatially explicit analysis of oribatid mites

1. Ecologists are debating the relative role of deterministic and stochastic determinants of community structure. Although the high diversity and strong spatial structure of soil animal assemblages could provide ecologists with an ideal ecological scenario, surprisingly little information is available on these assemblages.
2. We studied species-rich soil oribatid mite assemblages from a Mediterranean beech forest and a grassland. We applied multivariate regression approaches and analysed spatial autocorrelation at multiple spatial scales using Moran's eigenvectors. Results were used to partition community variance in terms of the amount of variation uniquely accounted for by environmental correlates (e.g. organic matter) and geographical position. Estimated neutral diversity and immigration parameters were also applied to a soil animal group for the first time to simulate patterns of community dissimilarity expected under neutrality, thereby testing neutral predictions.
3. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation, the correlation between community structure and key environmental parameters disappeared: about 40% of community variation consisted of spatial patterns independent of measured environmental variables such as organic matter. Environmentally independent spatial patterns encompassed the entire range of scales accounted for by the sampling design (from tens of cm to 100 m). This spatial variation could be due to either unmeasured but spatially structured variables or stochastic drift mediated by dispersal. Observed levels of community dissimilarity were significantly different from those predicted by neutral models.
4. Oribatid mite assemblages are dominated by processes involving both deterministic and stochastic components and operating at multiple scales. Spatial patterns independent of the measured environmental variables are a prominent feature of the targeted assemblages, but patterns of community dissimilarity do not match neutral predictions. This suggests that either niche-mediated competition or environmental filtering or both are contributing to the core structure of the community. This study indicates new lines of investigation for understanding the mechanisms that determine the signature of the deterministic component of animal community assembly.

Stochastic and deterministic processes interact in the assembly of desert microbial communities on a global scale

Extreme arid regions in the worlds' major deserts are typified by quartz pavement terrain. Cryptic hypolithic communities colonize the ventral surface of quartz rocks and this habitat is characterized by a relative lack of environmental and trophic complexity. Combined with readily identifiable major environmental stressors this provides a tractable model system for determining the relative role of stochastic and deterministic drivers in community assembly. Through analyzing an original, worldwide data set of 16S rRNA-gene defined bacterial communities from the most extreme deserts on the Earth, we show that functional assemblages within the communities were subject to different assembly influences. Null models applied to the photosynthetic assemblage revealed that stochastic processes exerted most effect on the assemblage, although the level of community dissimilarity varied between continents in a manner not always consistent with neutral models. The heterotrophic assemblages displayed signatures of niche processes across four continents, whereas in other cases they conformed to neutral predictions. Importantly, for continents where neutrality was either rejected or accepted, assembly drivers differed between the two functional groups. This study demonstrates that multi-trophic microbial systems may not be fully described by a single set of niche or neutral assembly rules and that stochasticity is likely a major determinant of such systems, with significant variation in the influence of these determinants on a global scale.

Compositional divergence and convergence in arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities

In spite of the controversy that they have generated, neutral models provide ecologists with powerful tools for creating dynamic predictions about beta-diversity in ecological communities. Ecologists can achieve an understanding of the assembly rules operating in nature by noting when and how these predictions are met or not met. This is particularly valuable for those groups of organisms that are challenging to study under natural conditions (e.g., bacteria and fungi). Here, we focused on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) communities and performed an extensive literature search that allowed us to synthesize the information in 19 data sets with the minimal requisites for creating a null hypothesis in terms of community dissimilarity expected under neutral dynamics. In order to achieve this task, we calculated the first estimates of neutral parameters for several AMF communities from different ecosystems. Communities were shown either to be consistent with neutrality or to diverge or converge with respect to the levels of compositional dissimilarity expected under neutrality. These data support the hypothesis that divergence occurs in systems where the effect of limited dispersal is overwhelmed by anthropogenic disturbance or extreme biological and environmental heterogeneity, whereas communities converge when systems have the potential for niche divergence within a relatively homogeneous set of environmental conditions. Regarding the study cases that were consistent with neutrality, the sampling designs employed may have covered relatively homogeneous environments in which the effects of dispersal limitation overwhelmed minor differences among AMF taxa that would lead to environmental filtering. Using neutral models we showed for the first time for a soil microbial group the conditions under which different assembly processes may determine different patterns of beta-diversity. Our synthesis is an important step showing how the application of general ecological theories to a model microbial taxon has the potential to shed light on the assembly and ecological dynamics of communities.

Stochastic particle acceleration in the lobes of giant radio galaxies

We investigate the acceleration of particles by Alfven waves via the second-order Fermi process in the lobes of giant radio galaxies. Such sites are candidates for the accelerators of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (UHECR). We focus on the nearby Fanaroff-Riley type I radio galaxy Centaurus A. This is motivated by the coincidence of its position with the arrival direction of several of the highest energy Auger events. The conditions necessary for consistency with the acceleration time-scales predicted by quasi-linear theory are reviewed. Test particle calculations are performed in fields which guarantee electric fields with no component parallel to the local magnetic field. The results of quasi-linear theory are, to an order of magnitude, found to be accurate at low turbulence levels for non-relativistic Alfven waves and at both low and high turbulence levels in the mildly relativistic case. We conclude that for pure stochastic acceleration via Alfven waves to be plausible as the generator of UHECR in Cen A, the baryon number density would need to be several orders of magnitude below currently held upper limits.