Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.

POLYCHAETE ASSEMBLAGE OF AN IMPACTED ESTUARY, GUANABARA BAY, RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL

Thirty-eight stations were sampled in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to assess the spatio-temporal diversity and biomass of sublittoral polychaetes. Samples were collected during the dry (September 2000) and rainy season (May 2001) in shallow sublittoral sediments. The polychaete spatial composition showed a heterogeneous distribution throughout the bay. A negative gradient of diversity and biomass was observed towards the inner parts of the bay and sheltered areas. A wide azoic area was found inside the bay. Some high-biomass and low-diversity spots were found near a sewage-discharge point. In these areas, the polychaete biomass increased after the rainy season. A diversified polychaete community was identified around the bay mouth, with no dramatic changes of this pattern between the two sampling periods. Deposit-feeders were dominant in the entire study area. The relative importance of carnivores and omnivores increased towards the outer sector, at stations with coarse sediment fractions. Guanabara Bay can be divided into three main zones with respect to environmental conditions and polychaete diversity and biomass patterns: A) High polychaete diversity, hydrodynamically exposed areas composed of sandy, oxidized or moderately reduced sediments with normoxic conditions in the water column. B) Low diversity and high biomass of deposit and suspension-feeding polychaete species in the middle part of the bay near continental inflows, comprising stations sharing similar proportions of silt, clay and fine sands. C) Azoic area or an impoverished polychaete community in hydrodynamically low-energy areas of silt and clay with extremely reduced sediments, high total organic matter content and hypoxic conditions in the water column, located essentially from the mid-bay towards the north sector. High total organic matter content and hypoxic conditions combined with slow water renewal in the inner bay seemed to play a key role in the polychaete diversity and biomass. Sedimentation processes and organic load coming from untreated sewage into the bay may have negatively affected the survivorship of the fauna.

Integration of spatial and temporal models to predict extreme water table depths

The objective of this work was to evaluate extreme water table depths in a watershed, using methods for geographical spatial data analysis. Groundwater spatio-temporal dynamics was evaluated in an outcrop of the Guarani Aquifer System. Water table depths were estimated from monitoring of water levels in 23 piezometers and time series modeling available from April 2004 to April 2011. For generation of spatial scenarios, geostatistical techniques were used, which incorporated into the prediction ancillary information related to the geomorphological patterns of the watershed, using a digital elevation model. This procedure improved estimates, due to the high correlation between water levels and elevation, and aggregated physical sense to predictions. The scenarios showed differences regarding the extreme levels - too deep or too shallow ones - and can subsidize water planning, efficient water use, and sustainable water management in the watershed.

Population biology and diet of the puffer fish Lagocephalus laevigatus (Tetraodontiformes: Tetraodontidae) in Caraguatatuba Bay, south-eastern Brazil

This study describes the spatio-temporal distribution, population biology, and diet of the puffer fish Lagocephalus laevigatus in Caraguatatuba Bay, south-eastern Brazil. Monthly samples were taken between August 2003 and October 2004 by trawls in two areas, south and north, at depths of 1 to 4 m. The fish were measured and their sex and reproductive stage determined. The abundance of this species was compared between areas and among months, and the items in the diet were identified and quantified. Lagocephalus laevigatus was rare in Caraguatatuba Bay, where only 199 small individuals (4.8 to 15.4 cm) were obtained in the entire study period, suggesting that this species uses the estuary as a nursery. None of the specimens of L. laevigatus captured in Caraguatatuba Bay were sexually mature. Higher densities of L. laevigatus in the bay were recorded in the south area and between October and December 2003, i.e. in the spring, suggesting that spawning may occur from late winter to spring (August through to November). The diet items consumed by L. laevigatus in Caraguatatuba Bay were, as expected from the current literature, crustaceans, mainly amphipods, and fish. However, the most-consumed item was the sea whip Leptogorgia setacea (Cnidaria). This feeding habit may be related to the presence of toxins (tetrodotoxin and saxitoxin) that are frequently found in the skin and viscera of L. laevigatus, which may be sequestered from the sea whip, which possibility still needs to be specifically evaluated.

POPULATION BIOLOGY AND DIET OF THE SOUTHERN KINGCROAKER Menticirrhus americanus (LINNAEUS, 1758) (PERCIFORMES: SCIAENIDAE) IN CARAGUATATUBA BAY, SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL

This study evaluated the spatio-temporal distribution, population biology and diet of Menticirrhus americanus in Caraguatatuba Bay. Samples were taken monthly between August 2003 and October 2004, by trawling in two previously selected areas. The northern area is more exposed to wave activity and is influenced by a river, functioning as a small estuary. In contrast, the southern area is relatively sheltered from wave energy and influenced to a lesser degree by smaller rivers. The fishes' length was measured, and the sex and gonadal stage macroscopically identified. The abundance of this species was compared between areas and among months. The diet was identified and quantified. M. americanus occurred in equal proportions in the two study areas, being most abundant in April 2004, followed by December 2003 and January 2004. The population was dominated by small immature individuals. The few individuals in maturation or mature that were captured showed no seasonal pattern of distribution. This species had a varied diet, feeding on worms (nemerteans, sipunculans and echiurans), mollusks (bivalves and cephalopods), polychaetes, crustaceans and fish. The presence of intact nematodes in the intestine suggests that these are parasites. The results demonstrated that M. americanus has a homogeneous spatial and temporal distribution in Caraguatatuba Bay, being uniformly distributed between the south and north areas as well as across the months. This species can be considered a carnivorous predator, showing a preference for consuming benthic sandy-beach species such as glycerids and other polychaetes, crustaceans, and bivalve siphons.

Population biology of Stellifer rastrifer, S. brasiliensis and S. stellifer in Caraguatatuba Bay, northern coast of São Paulo, Brazil

Ecosystems may reflect environmental changes in many respects, from the debilitation of individuals to alterations in community composition. Equally, population parameters may provide reliable indications of environmental changes. Members of the sciaenid fish genus Stellifer are usually very abundant where they occur, often with two or more species living in sympatry. Here, the population dynamics of three Stellifer species from southeastern Brazil were assessed. Sampling was carried out in shallow marine areas of Caraguatatuba Bay, from August 2003 to October 2004. The species evaluated were Stellifer rastrifer (n=3183), S. brasiliensis (n=357) and S. stellifer (n=116). The area under greater continental influence tended to support more, but smaller individuals. Size variations over time were similar among species and negatively correlated with Krel, which showed smooth fluctuations. The general length-frequency distribution was concentrated between 6.0 and 9.0 cm, and the great majority of females did not present mature gonads during the sampling period. The findings support the existence of a stratification by size for these species, indicating that the area is essential for the development of younger fish. Failure to consider these characteristics for the management of similar areas may have serious implications for these environments.

Dynamical analysis of turbulence in fusion plasmas and nonlinear waves

Turbulence is one of the key problems of classical physics, and it has been the object of intense research in the last decades in a large spectrum of problems involving fluids, plasmas, and waves. In order to review some advances in theoretical and experimental investigations on turbulence a mini-symposium on this subject was organized in the Dynamics Days South America 2010 Conference. The main goal of this mini-symposium was to present recent developments in both fundamental aspects and dynamical analysis of turbulence in nonlinear waves and fusion plasmas. In this paper we present a summary of the works presented at this mini-symposium. Among the questions to be addressed were the onset and control of turbulence and spatio-temporal chaos. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Comparison between multiplanar and rendering modes in the assessment of fetal atrioventricular valve areas by 3D/4D ultrasonography

Objective: To compare the agreement of multiplanar and rendering modes in the assessment fetal atrioventricular valves (mitral and tricuspid) areas by three-dimensional (3D) ultrasonography using the software spatio-temporal image correlation (STIC). Methods: We conducted a prospective cross-sectional study with normal pregnant women, with single fetuses, between 18-33 weeks. To measure the areas, we used the plan of four-chamber view. In the case of multiplanar, the plane was rotated on the axis "Z" form the heart to position at 9h. For rendering, the green line (region of interest - ROI) was placed from the atria of the heart perpendicular to the crux. The agreement was assessed by a Bland-Altman (limits of agreement) using the relative difference between the measures: ((rendering mode) - (multiplanar mode)) / (average). Results: 328 fetuses were evaluated. We have not identified the occurrence of systematic error between methods: the average relative difference was 1.62% (-2.07% to 5.32%, confidence interval 95%) in the mitral and 1.77% (- 1.08% to 4.62%) in the tricuspid valve. The limits of agreement between methods were -65.26% to 68.51% for the mitral and -49.91% to 53.45% for the tricuspid. Conclusions: There was no systematic error between modes and thus the observed values for the area of fetal atrioventricular valves can be used for comparisons needs to be corrected. However, relatively large variations may be observed when repeating the measurement area by different modes.

Changes in intrapopulation resource use patterns of an endangered raptor in response to a disease-mediated crash in prey abundance

1. A long-standing question in ecology is how natural populations respond to a changing environment. Emergent optimal foraging theory-based models for individual variation go beyond the population level and predict how its individuals would respond to disturbances that produce changes in resource availability. 2. Evaluating variations in resource use patterns at the intrapopulation level in wild populations under changing environmental conditions would allow to further advance in the research on foraging ecology and evolution by gaining a better idea of the underlying mechanisms explaining trophic diversity. 3. In this study, we use a large spatio-temporal scale data set (western continental Europe, 19682006) on the diet of Bonellis Eagle Aquila fasciata breeding pairs to analyse the predator trophic responses at the intrapopulation level to a prey population crash. In particular, we borrow metrics from studies on network structure and intrapopulation variation to understand how an emerging infectious disease [the rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD)] that caused the density of the eagles primary prey (rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus) to dramatically drop across Europe impacted on resource use patterns of this endangered raptor. 4. Following the major RHD outbreak, substantial changes in Bonellis Eagles diet diversity and organisation patterns at the intrapopulation level took place. Dietary variation among breeding pairs was larger after than before the outbreak. Before RHD, there were no clusters of pairs with similar diets, but significant clustering emerged after RHD. Moreover, diets at the pair level presented a nested pattern before RHD, but not after. 5. Here, we reveal how intrapopulation patterns of resource use can quantitatively and qualitatively vary, given drastic changes in resource availability. 6. For the first time, we show that a pathogen of a prey species can indirectly impact the intrapopulation patterns of resource use of an endangered predator.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Life history of three catfish species (Siluriformes: Ariidae) from southeastern Brazil

This study evaluated the spatio-temporal distribution, reproduction and diet of the catfishes Genidens genidens, G. barbus and Aspistor luniscutis in Caraguatatuba Bay. Their sizes were recorded and the sex and reproductive stage identified. The abundance was compared between areas (South and North) and among months (August 2003 - October 2004). The species had different spatial distributions, allowing them to coexist. The temporal distribution reflected their tendencies to migrate in the reproductive period, as evidenced by the dominance of small immature individuals in the bay. G. genidens tended to reproduce in winter, and A. luniscutis in spring. The diet of G. genidens consisted of crustaceans, mollusks (shells), fish scales, ostracods, and bivalve siphons. G. barbus consumed a high proportion of mysids, followed by fish (bones and scales). For A. luniscutis, the diet was based on fish scales and crustaceans. High quantities of particulate organic matter were observed in the diet of all three species, as previously known for estuarine catfishes. The consumption of fish scales may reflect a lepidophagic habit. A small overlap was observed among the diets, reflecting differences in their environments as well as in the proportions of each item ingested.

Population biology of Stellifer rastrifer, S. brasiliensis and S. stellifer in Caraguatatuba Bay, northern coast of São Paulo, Brazil

Ecosystems may reflect environmental changes in many respects, from the debilitation of individuals to alterations in community composition. Equally, population parameters may provide reliable indications of environmental changes. Members of the sciaenid fish genus Stellifer are usually very abundant where they occur, often with two or more species living in sympatry. Here, the population dynamics of three Stellifer species from southeastern Brazil were assessed. Sampling was carried out in shallow marine areas of Caraguatatuba Bay, from August 2003 to October 2004. The species evaluated were Stellifer rastrifer (n=3183), S. brasiliensis (n=357) and S. stellifer (n=116). The area under greater continental influence tended to support more, but smaller individuals. Size variations over time were similar among species and negatively correlated with Krel, which showed smooth fluctuations. The general length-frequency distribution was concentrated between 6.0 and 9.0 cm, and the great majority of females did not present mature gonads during the sampling period. The findings support the existence of a stratification by size for these species, indicating that the area is essential for the development of younger fish. Failure to consider these characteristics for the management of similar areas may have serious implications for these environments.

Population biology and diet of the southern kingcroaker Menticirrhus americanus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Perciformes: Sciaenidae) in Caraguatatuba Bay, southeastern Brazil

This study evaluated the spatio-temporal distribution, population biology and diet of Menticirrhus americanus in Caraguatatuba Bay. Samples were taken monthly between August 2003 and October 2004, by trawling in two previously selected areas. The northern area is more exposed to wave activity and is influenced by a river, functioning as a small estuary. In contrast, the southern area is relatively sheltered from wave energy and influenced to a lesser degree by smaller rivers. The fishes' length was measured, and the sex and gonadal stage macroscopically identified. The abundance of this species was compared between areas and among months. The diet was identified and quantified. M. americanus occurred in equal proportions in the two study areas, being most abundant in April 2004, followed by December 2003 and January 2004. The population was dominated by small immature individuals. The few individuals in maturation or mature that were captured showed no seasonal pattern of distribution. This species had a varied diet, feeding on worms (nemerteans, sipunculans and echiurans), mollusks (bivalves and cephalopods), polychaetes, crustaceans and fish. The presence of intact nematodes in the intestine suggests that these are parasites. The results demonstrated that M. americanus has a homogeneous spatial and temporal distribution in Caraguatatuba Bay, being uniformly distributed between the south and north areas as well as across the months. This species can be considered a carnivorous predator, showing a preference for consuming benthic sandy-beach species such as glycerids and other polychaetes, crustaceans, and bivalve siphons.

Dengue virus type 3 adaptive changes during epidemics in São Jose de Rio Preto, Brazil, 2006–2007

Global dengue virus spread in tropical and sub-tropical regions has become a major international public health concern. It is evident that DENV genetic diversity plays a significant role in the immunopathology of the disease and that the identification of polymorphisms associated with adaptive responses is important for vaccine development. The investigation of naturally occurring genomic variants may play an important role in the comprehension of different adaptive strategies used by these mutants to evade the human immune system. In order to elucidate this role we sequenced the complete polyprotein-coding region of thirty-three DENV-3 isolates to characterize variants circulating under high endemicity in the city of São José de Rio Preto, Brazil, during the onset of the 2006-07 epidemic. By inferring the evolutionary history on a local-scale and estimating rates of synonymous (dS) and nonsynonimous (dN) substitutions, we have documented at least two different introductions of DENV-3 into the city and detected 10 polymorphic codon sites under significant positive selection (dN/dS > 1) and 8 under significant purifying selection (dN/dS < 1). We found several polymorphic amino acid coding sites in the envelope (15), NS1 (17), NS2A (11), and NS5 (24) genes, which suggests that these genes may be experiencing relatively recent adaptive changes. Furthermore, some polymorphisms correlated with changes in the immunogenicity of several epitopes. Our study highlights the existence of significant and informative DENV variability at the spatio-temporal scale of an urban outbreak.