Micro-family-owned business : transitory survival mechanism or long term wealth creator?

Principal Topic: Entrepreneurship is key to employment, innovation and growth (Acs & Mueller, 2008), and as such, has been the subject of tremendous research in both the economic and management literatures since Solow (1957), Schumpeter (1934, 1943), and Penrose (1959). The presence of entrepreneurs in the economy is a key factor in the success or failure of countries to grow (Audretsch and Thurik, 2001; Dejardin, 2001). Further studies focus on the conditions of existence of entrepreneurship, influential factors invoked are historical, cultural, social, institutional, or purely economic (North, 1997; Thurik 1996 & 1999). Of particular interest, beyond the reasons behind the existence of entrepreneurship, are entrepreneurial survival and good ''performance'' factors. Using cross-country firm data analysis, La Porta & Schleifer (2008) confirm that informal micro-businesses provide on average half of all economic activity in developing countries. They find that these are utterly unproductive compared to formal firms, and conclude that the informal sector serves as a social security net ''keep[ing] millions of people alive, but disappearing over time'' (abstract). Robison (1986), Hill (1996, 1997) posit that the Indonesian government under Suharto always pointed to the lack of indigenous entrepreneurship , thereby motivating the nationalisation of all industries. Furthermore, the same literature also points to the fact that small businesses were mostly left out of development programmes because they were supposed less productive and having less productivity potential than larger ones. Vial (2008) challenges this view and shows that small firms represent about 70% of firms, 12% of total output, but contribute to 25% of total factor productivity growth on average over the period 1975-94 in the industrial sector (Table 10, p.316). ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: A review of the empirical literature points at several under-researched questions. Firstly, we assess whether there is, evidence of small family-business entrepreneurship in Indonesia. Secondly, we examine and present the characteristics of these enterprises, along with the size of the sector, and its dynamics. Thirdly, we study whether these enterprises underperform compared to the larger scale industrial sector, as it is suggested in the literature. We reconsider performance measurements for micro-family owned businesses. We suggest that, beside productivity measures, performance could be appraised by both the survival probability of the firm, and by the amount of household assets formation. We compare micro-family-owned and larger industrial firms' survival probabilities after the 1997 crisis, their capital productivity, then compare household assets of families involved in business with those who do not. Finally, we examine human and social capital as moderators of enterprises' performance. In particular, we assess whether a higher level of education and community participation have an effect on the likelihood of running a family business, and whether it has an impact on households' assets level. We use the IFLS database compiled and published by RAND Corporation. The data is a rich community, households, and individuals panel dataset in four waves: 1993, 1997, 2000, 2007. We now focus on the waves 1997 and 2000 in order to investigate entrepreneurship behaviours in turbulent times, i.e. the 1997 Asian crisis. We use aggregate individual data, and focus on households data in order to study micro-family-owned businesses. IFLS data covers roughly 7,600 households in 1997 and over 10,000 households in 2000, with about 95% of 1997 households re-interviewed in 2000. Households were interviewed in 13 of the 27 provinces as defined before 2001. Those 13 provinces were targeted because accounting for 83% of the population. A full description of the data is provided in Frankenberg and Thomas (2000), and Strauss et alii (2004). We deflate all monetary values in Rupiah with the World Development Indicators Consumer Price Index base 100 in 2000. ---------- Results and Implications: We find that in Indonesia, entrepreneurship is widespread and two thirds of households hold one or several family businesses. In rural areas, in 2000, 75% of households run one or several businesses. The proportion of households holding both a farm and a non farm business is higher in rural areas, underlining the reliance of rural households on self-employment, especially after the crisis. Those businesses come in various sizes from very small to larger ones. The median business production value represents less than the annual national minimum wage. Figures show that at least 75% of farm businesses produce less than the annual minimum wage, with non farm businesses being more numerous to produce the minimum wage. However, this is only one part of the story, as production is not the only ''output'' or effect of the business. We show that the survival rate of those businesses ranks between 70 and 82% after the 1997 crisis, which contrasts with the 67% survival rate for the formal industrial sector (Ter Wengel & Rodriguez, 2006). Micro Family Owned Businesses might be relatively small in terms of production, they also provide stability in times of crisis. For those businesses that provide business assets figures, we show that capital productivity is fairly high, with rates that are ten times higher for non farm businesses. Results show that households running a business have larger family assets, and households are better off in urban areas. We run a panel logit model in order to test the effect of human and social capital on the existence of businesses among households. We find that non farm businesses are more likely to appear in households with higher human and social capital situated in urban areas. Farm businesses are more likely to appear in lower human capital and rural contexts, while still being supported by community participation. The estimation of our panel data model confirm that households are more likely to have higher family assets if situated in urban area, the higher the education level, the larger the assets, and running a business increase the likelihood of having larger assets. This is especially true for non farm businesses that have a clearly larger and more significant effect on assets than farm businesses. Finally, social capital in the form of community participation also has a positive effect on assets. Those results confirm the existence of a strong entrepreneurship culture among Indonesian households. Investigating survival rates also shows that those businesses are quite stable, even in the face of a violent crisis such as the 1997 one, and as a result, can provide a safety net. Finally, considering household assets - the returns of business to the household, rather than profit or productivity - the returns of business to itself, shows that households running a business are better off. While we demonstrate that uman and social capital are key to business existence, survival and performance, those results open avenues for further research regarding the factors that could hamper growth of those businesses in terms of output and employment.

What measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality?

Hot and cold temperatures significantly increase mortality rates around the world, but which measure of temperature is the best predictor of mortality is not known. We used mortality data from 107 US cities for the years 1987–2000 and examined the association between temperature and mortality using Poisson regression and modelled a non-linear temperature effect and a non-linear lag structure. We examined mean, minimum and maximum temperature with and without humidity, and apparent temperature and the Humidex. The best measure was defined as that with the minimum cross-validated residual. We found large differences in the best temperature measure between age groups, seasons and cities, and there was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others. The strong correlation between different measures of temperature means that, on average, they have the same predictive ability. The best temperature measure for new studies can be chosen based on practical concerns, such as choosing the measure with the least amount of missing data.

3D lung and rib cage reconstruction using low dose CT scans of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis pre and post anterior thoracoscopic correction

Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) has been associated with reduced pulmonary function believed to be due to a restriction of lung volume by the deformed thoracic cavity. A recent study by our group examined the changes in lung volume pre and post anterior thoracoscopic scoliosis correction using pulmonary function testing (1), however the anatomical changes in ribcage shape and left/right lung volume after thoracoscopic surgery which govern overall respiratory capacity are unknown. The aim of this study was to use 3D rendering from CT scan data to compare lung and ribcage anatomical changes from pre to two years post thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction. The study concluded that 3D volumetric reconstruction from CT scans is a powerful means of evaluating changes in pulmonary and thoracic anatomy following surgical AIS correction. Most likely, lung volume changes following thoracoscopic scoliosis correction are multifactorial and affected by changes in height (due to residual growth), ribcage shape, diaphragm positioning, Cobb angle correction in the thoracic spine. Further analysis of the 3D reconstructions will be performed to assess how each of these factors affect lung volume in this patient cohort.

Evaluation of piezoelectric PVDF polymers for use in space environments. II. Effects of atomic oxygen and vacuum UV exposure

The effects of atomic oxygen (AO) and vacuum UV radiation simulating low Earth orbit conditions on two commercially available piezoelectric polymer films, poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) and poly(vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene) P(VDF-TrFE), have been studied. Surface erosion and pattern development are significant for both polymers. Erosion yields were determined as 2.8 � 10�24 cm3/atom for PVDF and 2.5 � 10�24 cm3/atom for P(VDF-TrFE). The piezoelectric properties of the residual material of both polymers were largely unchanged after exposure, although a slight shift in the Curie transition of the P(VDF-TrFE) was observed. A lightly cross-linked network was formed in the copolymer presumably because of penetrating vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation, while the homopolymer remained uncross-linked. These differences were attributed to varying degrees of crystallinity and potentially greater absorption, and hence damage, of VUV radiation in P(VDFTrFE) compared with PVDF.

Numerical simulation of axially loaded concrete columns under transverse impact and vulnerability assessment

With a view to assessing the vulnerability of columns to low elevation vehicular impacts, a non-linear explicit numerical model has been developed and validated using existing experimental results. The numerical model accounts for the effects of strain rate and confinement of the reinforced concrete, which are fundamental to the successful prediction of the impact response. The sensitivity of the material model parameters used for the validation is also scrutinised and numerical tests are performed to examine their suitability to simulate the shear failure conditions. Conflicting views on the strain gradient effects are discussed and the validation process is extended to investigate the ability of the equations developed under concentric loading conditions to simulate flexural failure events. Experimental data on impact force–time histories, mid span and residual deflections and support reactions have been verified against corresponding numerical results. A universal technique which can be applied to determine the vulnerability of the impacted columns against collisions with new generation vehicles under the most common impact modes is proposed. Additionally, the observed failure characteristics of the impacted columns are explained using extended outcomes. Based on the overall results, an analytical method is suggested to quantify the vulnerability of the columns.

Low moisture mud from solid bowl decanters

The high moisture content of mill mud (typically 75–80% for Australian factories) results in high transportation costs for the redistribution of mud onto cane farms. The high transportation cost relative to the nutrient value of the mill mud results in many milling companies subsidising the cost of this recycle to ensure a wide distribution across the cane supply area. An average mill would generate about 100 000 t of mud (at 75% moisture) in a crushing season. The development of mud processing facilities that will produce a low moisture mud that can be effectively incorporated into cane land with existing or modified spreading equipment will improve the cost efficiency of mud redistribution to farms; provide an economical fertiliser alternative to more farms in the supply area; and reduce the potential for adverse environmental impacts from farms. A research investigation assessing solid bowl decanter centrifuges to produce low moisture mud with low residual pol was undertaken and the results compared to the performance of existing rotary vacuum filters in factory trials. The decanters were operated on filter mud feed in parallel with the rotary vacuum filters to allow comparisons of performance. Samples of feed, mud product and filtrate were analysed to provide performance indicators. The decanter centrifuge could produce mud cakes with very low moistures and residual pol levels. Spreading trials in cane fields indicated that the dry cake could be spread easily by standard mud trucks and by trucks designed specifically to spread fertiliser.

Clarification of cane juice for fermentation

Fermentation feedstocks in the sugar industry are based on cane juice, B molasses or final molasses. Brazil has been producing ethanol by directing sugarcane juice to fermentation directly or using lower quality juice as a diluent with B molasses to prepare the fermentation broth. One issue that has received only limited interest particularly from outside Brazil is the most appropriate conditions for clarification of the juice going to fermentation. Irrespective of whether the juice supply is the total flow from the milling tandem or a diffuser station or a part of the total flow, removal of the insoluble solids is essential. However, the standard defecation process used by sugar factories around the world to clarify juice can introduce unwanted calcium ions and remove other nutrients such as phosphorus and nitrogen that are considered essential for the fermentation process. An investigation was undertaken by SRI to assess the effects on the constituents of cane juice when subjected to the typical clarification process in an Australian factory and what conditions would be needed to provide a clarified juice suitable for fermentation. Typical juices from one factory were clarified in laboratory trials under a range of pH conditions and the resulting clarified juices analysed. The results indicated that pH had a major effect on the residual concentrations of key constituents in the clarified juice and that the selected clarification conditions are determined by the nominated quality criteria of clarified juice feedstock for fermentation. Further trials were conducted in overseas factories to confirm the results obtained in Australia. It became apparent that the preferred specifications for clarified juice going to fermentation varied from country to country. Each supplier of fermentation technology had criteria applying to clarified juice feedstock that would have a major impact on the standard of clarification required to achieve compliance with the criteria.

Performance analysis of adaptive lattice filters for FM signals and alpha-stable processes

The performance of an adaptive filter may be studied through the behaviour of the optimal and adaptive coefficients in a given environment. This thesis investigates the performance of finite impulse response adaptive lattice filters for two classes of input signals: (a) frequency modulated signals with polynomial phases of order p in complex Gaussian white noise (as nonstationary signals), and (b) the impulsive autoregressive processes with alpha-stable distributions (as non-Gaussian signals). Initially, an overview is given for linear prediction and adaptive filtering. The convergence and tracking properties of the stochastic gradient algorithms are discussed for stationary and nonstationary input signals. It is explained that the stochastic gradient lattice algorithm has many advantages over the least-mean square algorithm. Some of these advantages are having a modular structure, easy-guaranteed stability, less sensitivity to the eigenvalue spread of the input autocorrelation matrix, and easy quantization of filter coefficients (normally called reflection coefficients). We then characterize the performance of the stochastic gradient lattice algorithm for the frequency modulated signals through the optimal and adaptive lattice reflection coefficients. This is a difficult task due to the nonlinear dependence of the adaptive reflection coefficients on the preceding stages and the input signal. To ease the derivations, we assume that reflection coefficients of each stage are independent of the inputs to that stage. Then the optimal lattice filter is derived for the frequency modulated signals. This is performed by computing the optimal values of residual errors, reflection coefficients, and recovery errors. Next, we show the tracking behaviour of adaptive reflection coefficients for frequency modulated signals. This is carried out by computing the tracking model of these coefficients for the stochastic gradient lattice algorithm in average. The second-order convergence of the adaptive coefficients is investigated by modeling the theoretical asymptotic variance of the gradient noise at each stage. The accuracy of the analytical results is verified by computer simulations. Using the previous analytical results, we show a new property, the polynomial order reducing property of adaptive lattice filters. This property may be used to reduce the order of the polynomial phase of input frequency modulated signals. Considering two examples, we show how this property may be used in processing frequency modulated signals. In the first example, a detection procedure in carried out on a frequency modulated signal with a second-order polynomial phase in complex Gaussian white noise. We showed that using this technique a better probability of detection is obtained for the reduced-order phase signals compared to that of the traditional energy detector. Also, it is empirically shown that the distribution of the gradient noise in the first adaptive reflection coefficients approximates the Gaussian law. In the second example, the instantaneous frequency of the same observed signal is estimated. We show that by using this technique a lower mean square error is achieved for the estimated frequencies at high signal-to-noise ratios in comparison to that of the adaptive line enhancer. The performance of adaptive lattice filters is then investigated for the second type of input signals, i.e., impulsive autoregressive processes with alpha-stable distributions . The concept of alpha-stable distributions is first introduced. We discuss that the stochastic gradient algorithm which performs desirable results for finite variance input signals (like frequency modulated signals in noise) does not perform a fast convergence for infinite variance stable processes (due to using the minimum mean-square error criterion). To deal with such problems, the concept of minimum dispersion criterion, fractional lower order moments, and recently-developed algorithms for stable processes are introduced. We then study the possibility of using the lattice structure for impulsive stable processes. Accordingly, two new algorithms including the least-mean P-norm lattice algorithm and its normalized version are proposed for lattice filters based on the fractional lower order moments. Simulation results show that using the proposed algorithms, faster convergence speeds are achieved for parameters estimation of autoregressive stable processes with low to moderate degrees of impulsiveness in comparison to many other algorithms. Also, we discuss the effect of impulsiveness of stable processes on generating some misalignment between the estimated parameters and the true values. Due to the infinite variance of stable processes, the performance of the proposed algorithms is only investigated using extensive computer simulations.

Coding speech signals at very low rates (below 1 kb/s) with high intelligibility

This thesis presents an original approach to parametric speech coding at rates below 1 kbitsjsec, primarily for speech storage applications. Essential processes considered in this research encompass efficient characterization of evolutionary configuration of vocal tract to follow phonemic features with high fidelity, representation of speech excitation using minimal parameters with minor degradation in naturalness of synthesized speech, and finally, quantization of resulting parameters at the nominated rates. For encoding speech spectral features, a new method relying on Temporal Decomposition (TD) is developed which efficiently compresses spectral information through interpolation between most steady points over time trajectories of spectral parameters using a new basis function. The compression ratio provided by the method is independent of the updating rate of the feature vectors, hence allows high resolution in tracking significant temporal variations of speech formants with no effect on the spectral data rate. Accordingly, regardless of the quantization technique employed, the method yields a high compression ratio without sacrificing speech intelligibility. Several new techniques for improving performance of the interpolation of spectral parameters through phonetically-based analysis are proposed and implemented in this research, comprising event approximated TD, near-optimal shaping event approximating functions, efficient speech parametrization for TD on the basis of an extensive investigation originally reported in this thesis, and a hierarchical error minimization algorithm for decomposition of feature parameters which significantly reduces the complexity of the interpolation process. Speech excitation in this work is characterized based on a novel Multi-Band Excitation paradigm which accurately determines the harmonic structure in the LPC (linear predictive coding) residual spectra, within individual bands, using the concept 11 of Instantaneous Frequency (IF) estimation in frequency domain. The model yields aneffective two-band approximation to excitation and computes pitch and voicing with high accuracy as well. New methods for interpolative coding of pitch and gain contours are also developed in this thesis. For pitch, relying on the correlation between phonetic evolution and pitch variations during voiced speech segments, TD is employed to interpolate the pitch contour between critical points introduced by event centroids. This compresses pitch contour in the ratio of about 1/10 with negligible error. To approximate gain contour, a set of uniformly-distributed Gaussian event-like functions is used which reduces the amount of gain information to about 1/6 with acceptable accuracy. The thesis also addresses a new quantization method applied to spectral features on the basis of statistical properties and spectral sensitivity of spectral parameters extracted from TD-based analysis. The experimental results show that good quality speech, comparable to that of conventional coders at rates over 2 kbits/sec, can be achieved at rates 650-990 bits/sec.

Advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections

During the past decade, a significant amount of research has been conducted internationally with the aim of developing, implementing, and verifying "advanced analysis" methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures. Application of these methods permits comprehensive assessment of the actual failure modes and ultimate strengths of structural systems in practical design situations, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. Advanced analysis has the potential to extend the creativity of structural engineers and simplify the design process, while ensuring greater economy and more uniform safety with respect to the ultimate limit state. The application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only members with compact cross-sections that are not subject to the effects of local buckling. This precluded the use of advanced analysis from the design of steel frames comprising a significant proportion of the most commonly used Australian sections, which are non-compact and subject to the effects of local buckling. This thesis contains a detailed description of research conducted over the past three years in an attempt to extend the scope of advanced analysis by developing methods that include the effects of local buckling in a non-linear analysis formulation, suitable for practical design of steel frames comprising non-compact sections. Two alternative concentrated plasticity formulations are presented in this thesis: the refined plastic hinge method and the pseudo plastic zone method. Both methods implicitly account for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. The accuracy and precision of the methods for the analysis of steel frames comprising non-compact sections has been established by comparison with a comprehensive range of analytical benchmark frame solutions. Both the refined plastic hinge and pseudo plastic zone methods are more accurate and precise than the conventional individual member design methods based on elastic analysis and specification equations. For example, the pseudo plastic zone method predicts the ultimate strength of the analytical benchmark frames with an average conservative error of less than one percent, and has an acceptable maximum unconservati_ve error of less than five percent. The pseudo plastic zone model can allow the design capacity to be increased by up to 30 percent for simple frames, mainly due to the consideration of inelastic redistribution. The benefits may be even more significant for complex frames with significant redundancy, which provides greater scope for inelastic redistribution. The analytical benchmark frame solutions were obtained using a distributed plasticity shell finite element model. A detailed description of this model and the results of all the 120 benchmark analyses are provided. The model explicitly accounts for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling. Its accuracy was verified by comparison with a variety of analytical solutions and the results of three large-scale experimental tests of steel frames comprising non-compact sections. A description of the experimental method and test results is also provided.

Oxygen consumption and muscle activation patterns during constant load exercise

The collective purpose of these two studies was to determine a link between the V02 slow component and the muscle activation patterns that occur during cycling. Six, male subjects performed an incremental cycle ergometer exercise test to determine asub-TvENT (i.e. 80% of TvENT) and supra-TvENT (TvENT + 0.75*(V02 max - TvENT) work load. These two constant work loads were subsequently performed on either three or four occasions for 8 mins each, with V02 captured on a breath-by-breath basis for every test, and EMO of eight major leg muscles collected on one occasion. EMG was collected for the first 10 s of every 30 s period, except for the very first 10 s period. The V02 data was interpolated, time aligned, averaged and smoothed for both intensities. Three models were then fitted to the V02 data to determine the kinetics responses. One of these models was mono-exponential, while the other two were biexponential. A second time delay parameter was the only difference between the two bi-exponential models. An F-test was used to determine significance between the biexponential models using the residual sum of squares term for each model. EMO was integrated to obtain one value for each 10 s period, per muscle. The EMG data was analysed by a two-way repeated measures ANOV A. A correlation was also used to determine significance between V02 and IEMG. The V02 data during the sub-TvENT intensity was best described by a mono-exponential response. In contrast, during supra-TvENT exercise the two bi-exponential models best described the V02 data. The resultant F-test revealed no significant difference between the two models and therefore demonstrated that the slow component was not delayed relative to the onset of the primary component. Furthermore, only two parameters were deemed to be significantly different based upon the two models. This is in contrast to other findings. The EMG data, for most muscles, appeared to follow the same pattern as V02 during both intensities of exercise. On most occasions, the correlation coefficient demonstrated significance. Although some muscles demonstrated the same relative increase in IEMO based upon increases in intensity and duration, it cannot be assumed that these muscles increase their contribution to V02 in a similar fashion. Larger muscles with a higher percentage of type II muscle fibres would have a larger increase in V02 over the same increase in intensity.