Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Model-based estimates of future uncertainty are generally based on the in-sample fit of the model, as when Box-Jenkins prediction intervals are calculated. However, this approach will generate biased uncertainty estimates in real time when there are data revisions. A simple remedy is suggested, and used to generate more accurate prediction intervals for 25 macroeconomic variables, in line with the theory. A simulation study based on an empirically-estimated model of data revisions for US output growth is used to investigate small-sample properties.

Validation of a priori CME arrival predictions made using real-time heliospheric imager observations

Between December 2010 and March 2013, volunteers for the Solar Stormwatch (SSW) Citizen Science project have identified and analyzed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the near real-time Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory Heliospheric Imager observations, in order to make “Fearless Forecasts” of CME arrival times and speeds at Earth. Of the 60 predictions of Earth-directed CMEs, 20 resulted in an identifiable Interplanetary CME (ICME) at Earth within 1.5–6 days, with an average error in predicted transit time of 22 h, and average transit time of 82.3 h. The average error in predicting arrival speed is 151 km s−1, with an average arrival speed of 425km s−1. In the same time period, there were 44 CMEs for which there are no corresponding SSW predictions, and there were 600 days on which there was neither a CME predicted nor observed. A number of metrics show that the SSW predictions do have useful forecast skill; however, there is still much room for improvement. We investigate potential improvements by using SSW inputs in three models of ICME propagation: two of constant acceleration and one of aerodynamic drag. We find that taking account of interplanetary acceleration can improve the average errors of transit time to 19 h and arrival speed to 77 km s−1.

Detection of hantaviruses in Brazilian rodents by SYBR-Green-based real-time RT-PCR

Current knowledge of the pathogenic hantavirus indicates that wild rodents are its primary natural reservoir. Specific primers to detect the presence of viral genomes were developed using an SYBR-Green-based real-time RT-PCR protocol. One hundred sixty-four rodents native to the Atlantic Forest biome were captured in So Paulo State, Brazil, and their tissues were tested. The presence of hantavirus RNA was detected in sixteen rodents: three specimens of Akodon montensis, three of Akodon cursor, two of Necromys lasiurus, one of Juliomys sp., one of Thaptomys nigrita, five of Oligoryzomys nigripes, and one of Oryzomys sp. This SYBR Green real-time RT-PCR method for detection of hantavirus may be useful for surveying hantaviruses in Brazil.

A real-time polymerase chain reaction assay for the identification and quantification of American Leishmania species on the basis of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase

A real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test was developed on the basis of the Leishmania glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase locus that enables identification and quantification of parasites. Using two independent pairs of primers in SYBR-Green assays, the test identified etiologic agents of cutaneous leishmaniasis belonging to both subgenera, Leishmania (Viannia) and Leishmania (Leishmania) in the Americas. Furthermore, use of TaqMan probes enables distinction between L. (V.) braziliensis or L. (V.) peruviania from the other L. (Viannia) species. All assays were negative with DNA of related trypanosomatids, humans, and mice. The parasite burden was estimated by normalizing the number of organisms per total amount of DNA in the sample or per host glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase copies. The real-time PCR assay for L. (Leishmania) subgenus showed a good linear correlation with quantification on the basis of a limiting dilution assay in experimentally infected mice. The test successfully identifies and quantifies Leishmania in human biopsy specimens and represents a new tool to study leishmaniasis.

Light-induced lens analysis in photorefractive crystals employing phase-shifting real-time holographic interferometry

The purpose of this work is to study the potentialities of phase-shifting real-time holographic interferometry for the analysis of light-induced lens in photoreffactive and nonlinear optical materials. We show that this technique can be used for quantitative evaluation of the phase distribution of a wavefront changed by a light-induced lens and, consequently, the refractive index changes in these materials. The basic principle of this technique combines real-time holographic interferometry with phase-shifting technique for interferogram analysis. This method is demonstrated with in situ visualization, monitoring and analysis in real-time and uses a Bi(12)SiO(20) crystal as the holographic medium and a Bi(12)TiO(20) as the test sample. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simple telemedicine for developing regions: Camera phones and paper-based microfluidic devices for real-time, off-site diagnosis

This article describes a prototype system for quantifying bioassays and for exchanging the results of the assays digitally with physicians located off-site. The system uses paper-based microfluidic devices for running multiple assays simultaneously, camera phones or portable scanners for digitizing the intensity of color associated with each colorimetric assay, and established communications infrastructure for transferring the digital information from the assay site to an off-site laboratory for analysis by a trained medical professional; the diagnosis then can be returned directly to the healthcare provider in the field. The microfluidic devices were fabricated in paper using photolithography and were functionalized with reagents for colorimetric assays. The results of the assays were quantified by comparing the intensities of the color developed in each assay with those of calibration curves. An example of this system quantified clinically relevant concentrations of glucose and protein in artificial urine. The combination of patterned paper, a portable method for obtaining digital images, and a method for exchanging results of the assays with off-site diagnosticians offers new opportunities for inexpensive monitoring of health, especially in situations that require physicians to travel to patients (e.g., in the developing world, in emergency management, and during field operations by the military) to obtain diagnostic information that might be obtained more effectively by less valuable personnel.

Development of a Real-time Formative Feedback Student Response System

This paper is focusing IT-supported real-time formative feedback in a classroom context. The development of a Student and Teacher Response System (STRS) is described. Since there are a number of obstacles for effective interaction in large classes, IT can be used to support the teachers aim to find out if students understand the lecture and accordingly adjust the content and design of the lecture. The system can be used for formative assessment before, during, and after a lecture. It is also possible for students to initiate interaction during lectures by posing questions anonymously. The main contributions of the paper are a) the description of the interactive real-time system and b) the development process behind it.

Real time video segmentation for recognising paint marks on bad wooden railway sleepers

Wooden railway sleeper inspections in Sweden are currently performed manually by a human operator; such inspections are based on visual analysis. Machine vision based approach has been done to emulate the visual abilities of human operator to enable automation of the process. Through this process bad sleepers are identified, and a spot is marked on it with specific color (blue in the current case) on the rail so that the maintenance operators are able to identify the spot and replace the sleeper. The motive of this thesis is to help the operators to identify those sleepers which are marked by color (spots), using an “Intelligent Vehicle” which is capable of running on the track. Capturing video while running on the track and segmenting the object of interest (spot) through this vehicle; we can automate this work and minimize the human intuitions. The video acquisition process depends on camera position and source light to obtain fine brightness in acquisition, we have tested 4 different types of combinations (camera position and source light) here to record the video and test the validity of proposed method. A sequence of real time rail frames are extracted from these videos and further processing (depending upon the data acquisition process) is done to identify the spots. After identification of spot each frame is divided in to 9 regions to know the particular region where the spot lies to avoid overlapping with noise, and so on. The proposed method will generate the information regarding in which region the spot lies, based on nine regions in each frame. From the generated results we have made some classification regarding data collection techniques, efficiency, time and speed. In this report, extensive experiments using image sequences from particular camera are reported and the experiments were done using intelligent vehicle as well as test vehicle and the results shows that we have achieved 95% success in identifying the spots when we use video as it is, in other method were we can skip some frames in pre-processing to increase the speed of video but the segmentation results we reduced to 85% and the time was very less compared to previous one. This shows the validity of proposed method in identification of spots lying on wooden railway sleepers where we can compromise between time and efficiency to get the desired result.

An Agent-Based Approach to Real-Time Patient Identification for Clinical Trials

Patient recruitment for clinical trials is expensive and has been a significant challenge, with many trials not achieving their recruitment goals. One method that shows promise for improving recruitment is the use of interactive prompts that inform practitioners of patient eligibility for clinical trials during consultation. This paper presents the ePCRN-IDEA recruitment system, which utilises an agent-based infrastructure to enable real-time recruitment of patients. In essence, whenever patients enter a clinic, the system compares their details against eligibility criteria, which define the requirements of active clinical trials. If a patient is found to be eligible, a prompt is raised to notify the user. In this way, it becomes possible for recruitment to take place quickly in a cost effective manner, whilst maintaining patient trust through the involvement of their own health care practitioner.

Real-Time Control Of Floods Along The Demer River, Belgium, By Means Of MPC In Combination With GA And A Fast Conceptual River Model

Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

Application Of Real-Time Control Strategy To Improve Nitrogen Removal In Wastewater Treatment

Biological nitrogen removal is an important task in the wastewater treatment. However, the actual removal of total nitrogen (TN) in the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) is often unsatisfactory due to several causes, one of which is the insufficient availability of carbon source. One possible approach to improve the nitrogen removal therefore is addition of external carbon source, while the amount of which is directly related to operation cost of a WWTP. It is obviously necessary to determine the accurate amount of addition of external carbon source according to the demand depending on the influent wastewater quality. This study focused on the real-time control of external carbon source addition based on the on-line monitoring of influent wastewater quality. The relationship between the influent wastewater quality (specifically the concentration of COD and ammonia) and the demand of carbon source was investigated through experiments on a pilot-scale A/O reactor (1m3) at the Nanjing WWTP, China. The minimum doses of carbon source addition at different situations of influent wastewater quality were determined to ensure the effluent wastewater quality meets the discharge standard. The obtained relationship is expected to be applied in the full-scale WWTPs. .

Um metamodelo da linguagem de modelagem real time UML, de suporte à criação de dicionário de dados para ferramentas de modelagem de sistema tempo real, visando a verificação de consistência dos modelos

A computação de tempo real é uma das áreas mais desafiadoras e de maior demanda tecnológica da atualidade. Está diretamente ligada a aplicações que envolvem índices críticos de confiabilidade e segurança. Estas características, inerentes a esta área da computação, vêm contribuindo para o aumento da complexidade dos sistemas tempo real e seu conseqüente desenvolvimento. Isto fez com que mecanismos para facilitar especificação, delimitação e solução de problemas passem a ser itens importantes para tais aplicações. Este trabalho propõe mecanismos para atuarem no desenvolvimento de sistemas de tempo real, com o objetivo de serem empregados como ferramenta de apoio no problema da verificação de presença de inconsistências, que podem vir a ocorrer nos vários modelos gerados partir da notação da linguagem de modelagem gráfica para sistemas de tempo real - UML-RT(Unified Modeling Language for Real Time). Estes mecanismos foram projetados através da construção de um metamodelo dos conceitos presentes nos diagramas de classe, de objetos, de seqüência, de colaboração e de estados. Para construir o metamodelo, utiliza-se a notação do diagrama de classes da UML (Unified Modeling Language). Contudo, por intermédio das representações gráficas do diagrama de classes não é possível descrever toda a semântica presente em tais diagramas. Assim, regras descritas em linguagem de modelagem OCL (Object Constraint Language) são utilizadas como um formalismo adicional ao metamodelo. Com estas descrições em OCL será possível a diminuição das possíveis ambigüidades e inconsistências, além de complementar as limitações impostas pelo caráter gráfico da UML. O metamodelo projetado é mapeado para um modelo Entidade&Relacionamento. A partir deste modelo, são gerados os scripts DDL (Data Definition Language) que serão usados na criação do dicionário de dados, no banco de dados Oracle. As descrições semânticas escritas através de regras em OCL são mapeadas para triggers, que disparam no momento em que o dicionário de dados é manipulado. O MET Editor do SiMOO-RT é a ferramenta diagramática que faz o povoamento dos dados no dicionário de dados. SiMOO-RT é uma ferramenta orientada a objetos para a modelagem, simulação e geração automática de código para sistemas de tempo real.

Uma Abordagem de escalonamento adaptativo no ambiente Real-Time CORBA

CORBA vem se tornando o middleware padrão no desenvolvimento de aplicações distribuídas, tornando-as independentes de plataforma e linguagem. Ele tem sido utilizado também em aplicações de tempo real através de sua extensão para tempo real, o RT-CORBA. Apesar desta extensão ter conseguido reduzir vários dos problemas do CORBA no que se refere ao não-determinismo e falta de garantias temporais, ainda há muito estudo na área de mecanismos de escalonamento utilizados. Assim, este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar uma proposta de escalonamento adaptativo no ambiente Real-Time CORBA. Nesta proposta o período das tarefas é controlado, variando dentro de uma faixa pré-estabelecida com o propósito de reduzir o atraso médio das tarefas da aplicação.

Inexpensive solution for real-time video and image stitching

Image stitching is the process of joining several images to obtain a bigger view of a scene. It is used, for example, in tourism to transmit to the viewer the sensation of being in another place. I am presenting an inexpensive solution for automatic real time video and image stitching with two web cameras as the video/image sources. The proposed solution relies on the usage of several markers in the scene as reference points for the stitching algorithm. The implemented algorithm is divided in four main steps, the marker detection, camera pose determination (in reference to the markers), video/image size and 3d transformation, and image translation. Wii remote controllers are used to support several steps in the process. The built‐in IR camera provides clean marker detection, which facilitates the camera pose determination. The only restriction in the algorithm is that markers have to be in the field of view when capturing the scene. Several tests where made to evaluate the final algorithm. The algorithm is able to perform video stitching with a frame rate between 8 and 13 fps. The joining of the two videos/images is good with minor misalignments in objects at the same depth of the marker,misalignments in the background and foreground are bigger. The capture process is simple enough so anyone can perform a stitching with a very short explanation. Although real‐time video stitching can be achieved by this affordable approach, there are few shortcomings in current version. For example, contrast inconsistency along the stitching line could be reduced by applying a color correction algorithm to every source videos. In addition, the misalignments in stitched images due to camera lens distortion could be eased by optical correction algorithm. The work was developed in Apple’s Quartz Composer, a visual programming environment. A library of extended functions was developed using Xcode tools also from Apple.