Tracing of patients lost to follow-up and HIV transmission: Mathematical modelling study based on two large ART programmes in Malawi

OBJECTIVES: Treatment as prevention depends on retaining HIV-infected patients in care. We investigated the effect on HIV transmission of bringing patients lost to follow up (LTFU) back into care. DESIGN: Mathematical model. METHODS: Stochastic mathematical model of cohorts of 1000 HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART), based on data from two clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual mean viral loads each year) and used a mathematical relationship between viral load and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. We simulated four scenarios: 'no LTFU' (all patients stay in care); 'no tracing' (patients LTFU are not traced); 'immediate tracing' (after missed clinic appointment); and, 'delayed tracing' (after six months). RESULTS: About 440 of 1000 patients were LTFU over five years. CVL (million copies/ml per 1000 patients) were 3.7 (95% prediction interval [PrI] 2.9-4.9) for no LTFU, 8.6 (95% PrI 7.3-10.0) for no tracing, 7.7 (95% PrI 6.2-9.1) for immediate, and 8.0 (95% PrI 6.7-9.5) for delayed tracing. Comparing no LTFU with no tracing the number of new infections increased from 33 (95% PrI 29-38) to 54 (95% PrI 47-60) per 1000 patients. Immediate tracing prevented 3.6 (95% PrI -3.3-12.8) and delayed tracing 2.5 (95% PrI -5.8-11.1) new infections per 1000. Immediate tracing was more efficient than delayed tracing: 116 and to 142 tracing efforts, respectively, were needed to prevent one new infection. CONCLUSION: Tracing of patients LTFU enhances the preventive effect of ART, but the number of transmissions prevented is small.

Little-known Swiss contributions to the description, diagnosis, and surgery of lumbar disc disease before the Mixter and Barr era

The understanding of lumbar spine pathologies made substantial progress at the turn of the twentieth century. The authors review the original publication of Otto Veraguth in 1929 reporting on the successful resection of a herniated lumbar disc, published exclusively in the German language. His early report is put into the historical context, and its impact on the understanding of pathologies of the intervertebral disc (IVD) is estimated. The Swiss surgeon and Nobel Prize laureate Emil Theodor Kocher was among the first physicians to describe the traumatic rupture of the IVD in 1896. As early as 1909 Oppenheim and Krause published 2 case reports on surgery for a herniated lumbar disc. Goldthwait was the first physician to delineate the etiopathogenes is between annulus rupture, symptoms of sciatica, and neurological signs in his publication of 1911. Further publications by Middleton and Teacher in 1911 and Schmorl in 1929 added to the understanding of lumbar spinal pathologies. In 1929, the Swiss neurologist Veraguth (surgery performed by Hans Brun) and the American neurosurgeon Walter Edward Dandy both published their early experiences with the surgical therapy of a herniated lumbar disc. Veraguth's contribution, however, has not been appreciated internationally to date. The causal relationship between lumbar disc pathology and sciatica remained uncertain for some years to come. The causal relationship was not confirmed until Mixter and Barr's landmark paper in 1934 describing the association of sciatica and lumbar disc herniation, after which the surgical treatment became increasingly popular. Veraguth was among the first physicians to report on the clinical course of a patient with successful resection of a herniated lumbar disc. His observations should be acknowledged in view of the limited experience and literature on this ailment at that time.

Frequency of use and knowledge of the WHO-surgical checklist in Swiss hospitals: a cross-sectional online survey

BACKGROUND The WHO-surgical checklist is strongly recommended as a highly effective yet economically simple intervention to improve patient safety. Its use and potentially influential factors were investigated as little data exist on the current situation in Switzerland. METHODS A cross-sectional online survey with members (N = 1378) of three Swiss professional associations of invasive health care professionals was conducted in German, French, and Italian. The survey assessed use of, knowledge of and satisfaction with the WHO-surgical checklist. T-Tests and ANOVA were conducted to test for differences between professional groups. Bivariate correlations were computed to test for associations between measures of knowledge and satisfaction. RESULTS 1090 (79.1%) reported the use of a surgical checklist. 346 (25.1%) use the WHO-checklist, 532 (38.6%) use the Swiss Patient Safety Foundation recommendations to avoid Wrong Site Surgery, and 212 (15.7%) reported the use of other checklists. Satisfaction with checklist use was generally high (doctors: 71.9% satisfied, nurses: 60.8% satisfied) and knowledge was moderate depending on the use of the WHO-checklist. No association between measures of subjective and objective knowledge was found. CONCLUSIONS Implementation of a surgical checklist remains an important task for health care institutions in Switzerland. Although checklist use is present in Switzerland on a regular basis, a substantial group of health care personnel still do not use a checklist as a routine. Influential factors and the associations among themselves need to be addressed in future studies in more detail.

Environmental justice and health practices: understanding how health inequities arise at the local level

While empirical evidence continues to show that people living in low socio-economic status neighbourhoods are less likely to engage in health-enhancing behaviour, our understanding of why this is so remains less than clear. We suggest that two changes could take place to move from description to understanding in this field; (i) a move away from the established concept of individual health behaviour to a contextualised understanding of health practices; and (ii) a switch from focusing on health inequalities in outcomes to health inequities in conditions. We apply Pierre Bourdieu's theory on capital interaction but find it insufficient with regard to the role of agency for structural change. We therefore introduce Amartya Sen's capability approach as a useful link between capital interaction theory and action to reduce social inequities in health-related practices. Sen's capability theory also elucidates the importance of discussing unequal chances in terms of inequity, rather than inequality, in order to underscore the moral nature of inequalities. We draw on the discussion in social geography on environmental injustice, which also underscores the moral nature of the spatial distribution of opportunities. The article ends by applying this approach to the 'Interdisciplinary study of inequalities in smoking' framework.

Disparities in bone density measurement history and osteoporosis medication utilisation in Swiss women: results from the Swiss Health Survey 2007

BACKGROUND Although factors associated with the utilisation of bone density measurement (BDM) and osteoporosis treatment have been regularly assessed in the US and Canada, they have not been effectively analysed in European countries. This study assessed factors associated with the utilisation of BDM and osteoporosis medication (OM) in Switzerland. METHODS The Swiss Health Survey 2007 data included self-reported information on BDM and OM for women aged 40 years and older who were living in private households. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify sociodemographic, socioeconomic, healthcare-related and osteoporosis risk factors associated with BDM and OM utilisation. RESULTS The lifetime prevalence of BDM was 25.6% (95% CI: 24.3-26.9%) for women aged 40 years and older. BDM utilisation was associated with most sociodemographic factors, all the socioeconomic and healthcare-related factors, and with major osteoporosis risk factors analysed. The prevalence of current OM was 7.8% (95% CI: 7.0-8.6%) and it was associated with some sociodemographic and most healthcare-related factors but only with one socioeconomic factor. CONCLUSIONS In Swiss women, ever having had a BDM and current OM were low and utilisation disparities exist according to sociodemographic, socioeconomic and healthcare-related factors. This might foster further health inequalities. The reasons for these findings should be addressed in further studies of the elderly women, including those living in institutions.

Impact of unlinked deaths and coding changes on mortality trends in the Swiss National Cohort

BACKGROUND Results of epidemiological studies linking census with mortality records may be affected by unlinked deaths and changes in cause of death classification. We examined these issues in the Swiss National Cohort (SNC). METHODS The SNC is a longitudinal study of the entire Swiss population, based on the 1990 (6.8 million persons) and 2000 (7.3 million persons) censuses. Among 1,053,393 deaths recorded 1991-2007 5.4% could not be linked using stringent probabilistic linkage. We included the unlinked deaths using pragmatic linkages and compared mortality rates for selected causes with official mortality rates. We also examined the impact of the 1995 change in cause of death coding from version 8 (with some additional rules) to version 10 of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD), using Poisson regression models with restricted cubic splines. Finally, we compared results from Cox models including and excluding unlinked deaths of the association of education, marital status, and nationality with selected causes of death. RESULTS SNC mortality rates underestimated all cause mortality by 9.6% (range 2.4%-17.9%) in the 85+ population. Underestimation was less pronounced in years nearer the censuses and in the 75-84 age group. After including 99.7% of unlinked deaths, annual all cause SNC mortality rates were reflecting official rates (relative difference between -1.4% and +1.8%). In the 85+ population the rates for prostate and breast cancer dropped, by 16% and 21% respectively, between 1994 and 1995 coincident with the change in cause of death coding policy. For suicide in males almost no change was observed. Hazard ratios were only negligibly affected by including the unlinked deaths. A sudden decrease in breast (21% less, 95% confidence interval: 12%-28%) and prostate (16% less, 95% confidence interval: 7%-23%) cancer mortality rates in the 85+ population coincided with the 1995 change in cause of death coding policy. CONCLUSIONS Unlinked deaths bias analyses of absolute mortality rates downwards but have little effect on relative mortality. To describe time trends of cause-specific mortality in the SNC, accounting for the unlinked deaths and for the possible effect of change in death certificate coding was necessary.

Incidence and risk factors of homicide-suicide in Swiss households: National Cohort study

BACKGROUND Homicide-suicides are rare but catastrophic events. This study examined the epidemiology of homicide-suicide in Switzerland. METHODS The study identified homicide-suicide events 1991-2008 in persons from the same household in the Swiss National Cohort, which links census and mortality records. The analysis examined the association of the risk of dying in a homicide-suicide event with socio-demographic variables, measured at the individual-level, household composition variables and area-level variables. Proportional hazards regression models were calculated for male perpetrators and female victims. Results are presented as age-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS The study identified 158 deaths from homicide-suicide events, including 85 murder victims (62 women, 4 men, 19 children and adolescents) and 68 male and 5 female perpetrators. The incidence was 3 events per million households and year. Firearms were the most prominent method for both homicides and suicides. The risk of perpetrating homicide-suicide was higher in divorced than in married men (HR 3.64; 95%CI 1.56-8.49), in foreigners without permanent residency compared to Swiss citizens (HR 3.95; 1.52-10.2), higher in men without religious affiliations than in Catholics (HR 2.23; 1.14-4.36) and higher in crowded households (HR 4.85; 1.72-13.6 comparing ≥2 with <1 persons/room). There was no association with education, occupation or nationality, the number of children, the language region or degree of urbanicity. Associations were similar for female victims. CONCLUSIONS This national longitudinal study shows that living conditions associated with psychological stress and lower levels of social support are associated with homicide-suicide events in Switzerland.

Impact of recommendation updates in well-controlled patients on nonrecommended antiretroviral therapies: the Swiss HIV cohort study

BACKGROUND HIV treatment recommendations are updated as clinical trials are published. Whether recommendations drive clinicians to change antiretroviral therapy in well-controlled patients is unexplored. METHODS We selected patients with undetectable viral loads (VLs) on nonrecommended regimens containing double-boosted protease inhibitors (DBPIs), triple-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), or didanosine (ddI) plus stavudine (d4T) at publication of the 2006 International AIDS Society recommendations. We compared demographic and clinical characteristics with those of control patients with undetectable VL not on these regimens and examined clinical outcome and reasons for treatment modification. RESULTS At inclusion, 104 patients were in the DBPI group, 436 in the triple-NRTI group, and 19 in the ddI/d4T group. By 2010, 28 (29%), 204 (52%), and 1 (5%) patient were still on DBPIs, triple-NRTIs, and ddI plus d4T, respectively. 'Physician decision,' excluding toxicity/virological failure, drove 30% of treatment changes. Predictors of recommendation nonobservance included female sex [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1 to 7.26; P = 0.01] for DPBIs, and undetectable VL (aOR 3.53, 95% CI 1.6 to 7.8; P = 0.002) and lack of cardiovascular events (aOR 2.93, 95% CI 1.23 to 6.97; P = 0.02) for triple-NRTIs. All patients on DBPIs with documented diabetes or a cardiovascular event changed treatment. Recommendation observance resulted in lower cholesterol values in the DBPI group (P = 0.06), and more patients having undetectable VL (P = 0.02) in the triple-NRTI group. CONCLUSION The physician's decision is the main factor driving change from nonrecommended to recommended regimens, whereas virological suppression is associated with not switching. Positive clinical outcomes observed postswitch underline the importance of observing recommendations, even in well-controlled patients.

Effect of mannitol dry powder challenge on exhaled nitric oxide in children

BACKGROUND Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FENO), a non-invasive marker of eosinophilic airway inflammation, is increasingly used for diagnostic and therapeutic decisions in adult and paediatric asthma. Standardized guidelines for the measurement of FENO recommend performing FENO measurements before rather than after bronchial provocation tests. OBJECTIVE To investigate whether FENO levels decrease after a Mannitol dry powder (MDP) challenge in a clinical setting, and whether the extent of the decrease is influenced by number of MDP manoeuvres, baseline FENO, atopy and doctor diagnosed asthma. METHODS Children aged 6-16 years, referred for possible reactive airway disease to a respiratory outpatient clinic, performed an MDP challenge (Aridol®, Pharmaxis, Australia). FENO was measured in doublets immediately before and after the challenge test using the portable NIOX MINO® device (Aerocrine, Stockholm, Sweden). We analysed the data using Kruskal-Wallis rank tests, Wilcoxon signed rank tests and multivariable linear regressions. RESULTS One hundred and seven children completed both tests (mean±SD age 11.5±2.8 years). Overall, median (interquartile range) FENO decreased slightly by -2.5 ppb (-7.0, -0.5), from 18.5 ppb (10.5, 45.5) before the MDP challenge to 16.5 ppb thereafter (8.5, 40.5; p<0.001). In all participants, the change in FENO was smaller than one standard deviation of the baseline mean. The % fall in FENO was smaller in children with less MDP manoeuvres (e.g. higher bronchial responsiveness; p = 0.08) but was not influenced by levels of baseline FENO (p = 0.68), atopy (p = 0.84) or doctor diagnosed asthma (p = 0.93). CONCLUSION MDP challenge test influences FENO values but differences are small and clinically barely relevant.

Frequency of patient-reported infections among sicker adults in high-income countries: an international perspective

The frequency of patient-reported health care-associated infections across several high-income countries was analyzed in representative population samples based on data from "The Commonwealth Fund's 2011 International Survey of Sicker Adults in Eleven countries." Across countries, 8.9% of patients who were hospitalized and/or had surgery reported an infection, but this rate varied considerably from 5.3% in the United States to 11.9% in New Zealand. Patients who reported infection were more likely to rate the quality of medical care received as fair or poor (odds ratio [OR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.9-3.1, P < .001). Female sex (OR, 1.2; 95% CI: 1.0-1.5, P = .027), reporting 2 or more chronic conditions (OR, 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1-2.0, P = .004), poor health (OR, 1.6; 95% CI: 1.2-2.1, P < .001), and surgery (OR, 1.8; 95% CI: 1.4-2.3, P < .001) were significant predictors for health care-associated infection across countries. Being above 64 years of age (OR, 0.78; 95% CI: 0.64-0.95, P = .013) and day-surgery (OR, 0.62; 95% CI: 0.48-0.79, P < .001) decreased the likelihood for reporting infection.

Valuing the Health States Associated with Chlamydia trachomatis Infections and Their Sequelae: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations and Primary Studies

OBJECTIVES Economic evaluations of interventions to prevent and control sexually transmitted infections such as Chlamydia trachomatis are increasingly required to present their outcomes in terms of quality-adjusted life-years using preference-based measurements of relevant health states. The objectives of this study were to critically evaluate how published cost-effectiveness studies have conceptualized and valued health states associated with chlamydia and to examine the primary evidence available to inform health state utility values (HSUVs). METHODS A systematic review was conducted, with searches of six electronic databases up to December 2012. Data on study characteristics, methods, and main results were extracted by using a standard template. RESULTS Nineteen economic evaluations of relevant interventions were included. Individual studies considered different health states and assigned different values and durations. Eleven studies cited the same source for HSUVs. Only five primary studies valued relevant health states. The methods and viewpoints adopted varied, and different values for health states were generated. CONCLUSIONS Limitations in the information available about HSUVs associated with chlamydia and its complications have implications for the robustness of economic evaluations in this area. None of the primary studies could be used without reservation to inform cost-effectiveness analyses in the United Kingdom. Future debate should consider appropriate methods for valuing health states for infectious diseases, because recommended approaches may not be suitable. Unless we adequately tackle the challenges associated with measuring and valuing health-related quality of life for patients with chlamydia and other infectious diseases, evaluating the cost-effectiveness of interventions in this area will remain problematic.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, > 10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Impact of B-type natriuretic peptide on short-term clinical outcomes following transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Aims: We aimed to assess the impact of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) on short-term outcomes in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Methods and results: Of 500 consecutive patients with severe aortic stenosis undergoing TAVI at our institution, we studied 340 patients who had a BNP assessment prior to TAVI. Patients were divided into tertiles - low: BNP ≤201 pg/mL (n=114), mid: BNP 202-595 pg/mL (n=113) and high: BNP ≥596 pg/mL (n=113). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, cardiac death and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; death, major stroke and myocardial infarction) at 30 days. Compared with low tertile, high tertile patients were at higher baseline surgical risk (STS score 5.5±3.0 vs. 7.4±4.1, p=0.002). On echocardiography, high tertile patients had smaller valve areas (0.74±0.21 vs. 0.66±0.23 cm2, p=0.008), higher left ventricular (LV) mass indices (123.40±33.66 vs. 168.22±47.96 g/m2, p<0.001) and lower LV ejection fractions (61.59±7.18 vs. 42.65±15.41%, p<0.001) as compared with low tertile patients. At 30 days, a significantly higher incidence of death (hazard ratio [HR] 7.41, p=0.001) cardiac death (HR 5.82, p=0.006) and MACCE (HR 9.04, p<0.001) was observed among high as compared to low tertile patients. Conclusions: In TAVI patients, higher BNP values at baseline are associated with an increased risk for an adverse event periprocedurally and after 30 days, respectively.