Empirical investigation of interactive highway safety design model accident prediction algorithm : Rural intersections

One major gap in transportation system safety management is the ability to assess the safety ramifications of design changes for both new road projects and modifications to existing roads. To fulfill this need, FHWA and its many partners are developing a safety forecasting tool, the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The tool will be used by roadway design engineers, safety analysts, and planners throughout the United States. As such, the statistical models embedded in IHSDM will need to be able to forecast safety impacts under a wide range of roadway configurations and environmental conditions for a wide range of driver populations and will need to be able to capture elements of driving risk across states. One of the IHSDM algorithms developed by FHWA and its contractors is for forecasting accidents on rural road segments and rural intersections. The methodological approach is to use predictive models for specific base conditions, with traffic volume information as the sole explanatory variable for crashes, and then to apply regional or state calibration factors and accident modification factors (AMFs) to estimate the impact on accidents of geometric characteristics that differ from the base model conditions. In the majority of past approaches, AMFs are derived from parameter estimates associated with the explanatory variables. A recent study for FHWA used a multistate database to examine in detail the use of the algorithm with the base model-AMF approach and explored alternative base model forms as well as the use of full models that included nontraffic-related variables and other approaches to estimate AMFs. That research effort is reported. The results support the IHSDM methodology.

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) - genotyping of Community Acquired Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus, including the subtyping of PVL toxin producers using Real-Time PCR

Staphylococcus aureus is a common pathogen that causes a variety of infections including soft tissue infections, impetigo, septicemia toxic shock and scalded skin syndrome. Traditionally, Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) was considered a Hospital-Acquired (HA) infection. It is now recognised that the frequency of infections with MRSA is increasing in the community, and that these infections are not originating from hospital environments. A 2007 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated that Staphylococcus aureus is the most important cause of serious and fatal infections in the USA. Community-Acquired MRSA (CA-MRSA) are genetically diverse and distinct, meaning they are able to be identified and tracked by way of genotyping. Genotyping of MRSA using Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is a rapid and robust method for monitoring MRSA, specifically ST93 (Queensland Clone) dissemination in the community. It has been shown that a large proportion of CA-MRSA infections in Queensland and New South Wales are caused by ST93. The rationale for this project was that SNP analysis of MLST genes is a rapid and cost-effective method for genotyping and monitoring MRSA dissemination in the community. In this study, 16 different sequence types (ST) were identified with 41% of isolates identified as ST93 making it the predominate clone. Males and Females were infected equally with an average patient age of 45yrs. Phenotypically, all of the ST93 had an identical antimicrobial resistance pattern. They were resistant to the β-lactams – Penicillin, Flu(di)cloxacillin and Cephalothin but sensitive to all other antibiotics tested. Virulence factors play an important role in allowing S. aureus to cause disease by way of colonising, replication and damage to the host. One virulence factor of particular interest is the toxin Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL), which is composed of two separate proteins encoded by two adjacent genes. PVL positive CA-MRSA are shown to cause recurrent, chronic or severe skin and soft tissue infections. As a result, it is important that PVL positive CA-MRSA is genotyped and tracked. Especially now that CA-MRSA infections are more prevalent than HA-MRSA infections and are now deemed endemic in Australia. 98% of all isolates in this study tested positive for the PVL toxin gene. This study showed that PVL is present in many different community based ST, not just ST93, which were all PVL positive. With this toxin becoming entrenched in CA-MRSA, genotyping would provide more accurate data and a way of tracking the dissemination. PVL gene can be sub-typed using an allele-specific Real-Time PCR (RT-PCR) followed by High resolution meltanalysis. This allows the identification of PVL subtypes within the CA-MRSA population and allow the tracking of these clones in the community.

Modeling, stability analysis and control of microgrid

With the increase in the level of global warming, renewable energy based distributed generators (DGs) will increasingly play a dominant role in electricity production. Distributed generation based on solar energy (photovoltaic and solar thermal), wind, biomass, mini-hydro along with use of fuel cells and micro turbines will gain considerable momentum in the near future. A microgrid consists of clusters of load and distributed generators that operate as a single controllable system. The interconnection of the DG to the utility/grid through power electronic converters has raised concern about safe operation and protection of the equipments. Many innovative control techniques have been used for enhancing the stability of microgrid as for proper load sharing. The most common method is the use of droop characteristics for decentralized load sharing. Parallel converters have been controlled to deliver desired real power (and reactive power) to the system. Local signals are used as feedback to control converters, since in a real system, the distance between the converters may make the inter-communication impractical. The real and reactive power sharing can be achieved by controlling two independent quantities, frequency and fundamental voltage magnitude. In this thesis, an angle droop controller is proposed to share power amongst converter interfaced DGs in a microgrid. As the angle of the output voltage can be changed instantaneously in a voltage source converter (VSC), controlling the angle to control the real power is always beneficial for quick attainment of steady state. Thus in converter based DGs, load sharing can be performed by drooping the converter output voltage magnitude and its angle instead of frequency. The angle control results in much lesser frequency variation compared to that with frequency droop. An enhanced frequency droop controller is proposed for better dynamic response and smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes of operation. A modular controller structure with modified control loop is proposed for better load sharing between the parallel connected converters in a distributed generation system. Moreover, a method for smooth transition between grid connected and islanded modes is proposed. Power quality enhanced operation of a microgrid in presence of unbalanced and non-linear loads is also addressed in which the DGs act as compensators. The compensator can perform load balancing, harmonic compensation and reactive power control while supplying real power to the grid A frequency and voltage isolation technique between microgrid and utility is proposed by using a back-to-back converter. As utility and microgrid are totally isolated, the voltage or frequency fluctuations in the utility side do not affect the microgrid loads and vice versa. Another advantage of this scheme is that a bidirectional regulated power flow can be achieved by the back-to-back converter structure. For accurate load sharing, the droop gains have to be high, which has the potential of making the system unstable. Therefore the choice of droop gains is often a tradeoff between power sharing and stability. To improve this situation, a supplementary droop controller is proposed. A small signal model of the system is developed, based on which the parameters of the supplementary controller are designed. Two methods are proposed for load sharing in an autonomous microgrid in rural network with high R/X ratio lines. The first method proposes power sharing without any communication between the DGs. The feedback quantities and the gain matrixes are transformed with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ratio. The second method involves minimal communication among the DGs. The converter output voltage angle reference is modified based on the active and reactive power flow in the line connected at point of common coupling (PCC). It is shown that a more economical and proper power sharing solution is possible with the web based communication of the power flow quantities. All the proposed methods are verified through PSCAD simulations. The converters are modeled with IGBT switches and anti parallel diodes with associated snubber circuits. All the rotating machines are modeled in detail including their dynamics.

Corneal confocal microscopy : a novel means to detect nerve fibre damage in idiopathic small fibre neuropathy

Patients with idiopathic small fibre neuropathy (ISFN) have been shown to have significant intraepidermal nerve fibre loss and an increased prevalence of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT). It has been suggested that the dysglycemia of IGT and additional metabolic risk factors may contribute to small nerve fibre damage in these patients. Twenty-five patients with ISFN and 12 aged-matched control subjects underwent a detailed evaluation of neuropathic symptoms, neurological deficits (Neuropathy deficit score (NDS); Nerve Conduction Studies (NCS); Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST) and Corneal Confocal Microscopy (CCM)) to quantify small nerve fibre pathology. Eight (32%) patients had IGT. Whilst all patients with ISFN had significant neuropathic symptoms, NDS, NCS and QST except for warm thresholds were normal. Corneal sensitivity was reduced and CCM demonstrated a significant reduction in corneal nerve fibre density (NFD) (Pb0.0001), nerve branch density (NBD) (Pb0.0001), nerve fibre length (NFL) (Pb0.0001) and an increase in nerve fibre tortuosity (NFT) (Pb0.0001). However these parameters did not differ between ISFN patients with and without IGT, nor did they correlate with BMI, lipids and blood pressure. Corneal confocal microscopy provides a sensitive non-invasive means to detect small nerve fibre damage in patients with ISFN and metabolic abnormalities do not relate to nerve damage.

Examination of pencil beam predictions of small-field dose using dosimetry film and Monte Carlo simulations

The iPlan treatment planning sys-tem uses a pencil beam algorithm, with density cor-rections, to predict the doses delivered by very small (stereotactic) radiotherapy fields. This study tests the accuracy of dose predictions made by iPlan, for small-field treatments delivered to a planar solid wa-ter phantom and to heterogeneous human tissue using the BrainLAB m3 micro-multileaf collimator.

Optimization of long rural feeders using a genetic algorithm

This paper describes the optimization of conductor size and the voltage regulator location & magnitude of long rural distribution lines. The optimization minimizes the lifetime cost of the lines, including capital costs and losses while observing voltage drop and operational constraints using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The GA optimization is applied to a real Single Wire Earth Return (SWER) network in regional Queensland and results are presented.

Property damage crash equivalency factors to solve crash frequency-severity dilemma: Case study on South Korean rural roads

Safety interventions (e.g., median barriers, photo enforcement) and road features (e.g., median type and width) can influence crash severity, crash frequency, or both. Both dimensions—crash frequency and crash severity—are needed to obtain a full accounting of road safety. Extensive literature and common sense both dictate that crashes are not created equal, with fatalities costing society more than 1,000 times the cost of property damage crashes on average. Despite this glaring disparity, the profession has not unanimously embraced or successfully defended a nonarbitrary severity weighting approach for analyzing safety data and conducting safety analyses. It is argued here that the two dimensions (frequency and severity) are made available by intelligently and reliably weighting crash frequencies and converting all crashes to property-damage-only crash equivalents (PDOEs) by using comprehensive societal unit crash costs. This approach is analogous to calculating axle load equivalents in the prediction of pavement damage: for instance, a 40,000-lb truck causes 4,025 times more stress than does a 4,000-lb car and so simply counting axles is not sufficient. Calculating PDOEs using unit crash costs is the most defensible and nonarbitrary weighting scheme, allows for the simple incorporation of severity and frequency, and leads to crash models that are sensitive to factors that affect crash severity. Moreover, using PDOEs diminishes the errors introduced by underreporting of less severe crashes—an added benefit of the PDOE analysis approach. The method is illustrated with rural road segment data from South Korea (which in practice would develop PDOEs with Korean crash cost data).

A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.

Expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections in South Korea

Understanding the expected safety performance of rural signalized intersections is critical for (a) identifying high-risk sites where the observed safety performance is substantially worse than the expected safety performance, (b) understanding influential factors associated with crashes, and (c) predicting the future performance of sites and helping plan safety-enhancing activities. These three critical activities are routinely conducted for safety management and planning purposes in jurisdictions throughout the United States and around the world. This paper aims to develop baseline expected safety performance functions of rural signalized intersections in South Korea, which to date have not yet been established or reported in the literature. Data are examined from numerous locations within South Korea for both three-legged and four-legged configurations. The safety effects of a host of operational and geometric variables on the safety performance of these sites are also examined. In addition, supplementary tables and graphs are developed for comparing the baseline safety performance of sites with various geometric and operational features. These graphs identify how various factors are associated with safety. The expected safety prediction tables offer advantages over regression prediction equations by allowing the safety manager to isolate specific features of the intersections and examine their impact on expected safety. The examination of the expected safety performance tables through illustrated examples highlights the need to correct for regression-to-the-mean effects, emphasizes the negative impacts of multicollinearity, shows why multivariate models do not translate well to accident modification factors, and illuminates the need to examine road safety carefully and methodically. Caveats are provided on the use of the safety performance prediction graphs developed in this paper.

Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Load frequency control for rural distributed generation

In rural low-voltage networks, distribution lines are usually highly resistive. When many distributed generators are connected to such lines, power sharing among them is difficult when using conventional droop control, as the real and reactive power have strong coupling with each other. A high droop gain can alleviate this problem but may lead the system to instability. To overcome4 this, two droop control methods are proposed for accurate load sharing with frequency droop controller. The first method considers no communication among the distributed generators and regulates the output voltage and frequency, ensuring acceptable load sharing. The droop equations are modified with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ration for this purpose. The second proposed method, with minimal low bandwidth communication, modifies the reference frequency of the distributed generators based on the active and reactive power flow in the lines connected to the points of common coupling. The performance of these two proposed controllers is compared with that of a controller, which includes an expensive high bandwidth communication system through time-domain simulation of a test system. The magnitude of errors in power sharing between these three droop control schemes are evaluated and tabulated.

Effect of optical aberrations on the color appearance of small defocused lights

We investigated influences of optics and surround area on color appearance of defocused, small narrow band photopic lights (1’ arc diameter, λmax 510 - 628 nm) centered within a black annulus and surrounded by a white field. Participants included seven normal trichromats with L- or M-cone biased ratios. We controlled chromatic aberration with elements of a Powell achromatizing lens and corrected higher-order aberrations with an adaptive-optics system. Longitudinal chromatic aberrations, but not monochromatic aberrations, are involved in changing appearance of small lights with defocus. Surround field structure is important because color changes were not observed when lights were presented on a uniform white surround.

How does small business impact on utilization of industry-led supply chain innovation capacity

This research uses confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling to examine how organizational size - made up of four dimensions - control, resources, trust and complexity - impacts on utilization of industry-led supply chain innovation capacity in a traditional agribusiness industry, the Australian beef industry. It confirms small business rather than larger business accords greater importance to exploiting supply chain dynamic capabilities, particularly in relation to utilizing industry –led supply chain innovation capacity. For small business in Australian beef supply chains, being agile and able to adapt and align their business practices with supply chain partners is integral to ensuring these businesses remain relevant and competitive in this market. In theoretical terms this is supported by authors in the dynamic capabilities literature as they argue these types of capabilities enable organizations to innovate faster (or better), often leading to the creation of newer sources of competitive advantage.