A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.

Introducing standardized protocols for anthropological measurement of virtual subadult crania using computed tomography

Objectives This study introduces and assesses the precision of a standardized protocol for anthropometric measurement of the juvenile cranium using three-dimensional surface rendered models, for implementation in forensic investigation or paleodemographic research. Materials and methods A subset of multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) DICOM datasets (n=10) of modern Australian subadults (birth—10 years) was accessed from the “Skeletal Biology and Forensic Anthropology Virtual Osteological Database” (n>1200), obtained from retrospective clinical scans taken at Brisbane children hospitals (2009–2013). The capabilities of Geomagic Design X™ form the basis of this study; introducing standardized protocols using triangle surface mesh models to (i) ascertain linear dimensions using reference plane networks and (ii) calculate the area of complex regions of interest on the cranium. Results The protocols described in this paper demonstrate high levels of repeatability between five observers of varying anatomical expertise and software experience. Intra- and inter-observer error was indiscernible with total technical error of measurement (TEM) values ≤0.56 mm, constituting <0.33% relative error (rTEM) for linear measurements; and a TEM value of ≤12.89 mm2, equating to <1.18% (rTEM) of the total area of the anterior fontanelle and contiguous sutures. Conclusions Exploiting the advances of MSCT in routine clinical assessment, this paper assesses the application of this virtual approach to acquire highly reproducible morphometric data in a non-invasive manner for human identification and population studies in growth and development. The protocols and precision testing presented are imperative for the advancement of “virtual anthropology” into routine Australian medico-legal death investigation.

Voltage unbalance improvement in low voltage residential feeders with rooftop PVs using custom power devices

Voltage unbalance is a major power quality problem in low voltage residential feeders due to the random location and rating of single-phase rooftop photovoltaic cells (PV). In this paper, two different improvement methods based on the application of series (DVR) and parallel (DSTATCOM) custom power devices are investigated to improve the voltage unbalance problem in these feeders. First, based on the load flow analysis carried out in MATLAB, the effectiveness of these two custom power devices is studied vis-à-vis the voltage unbalance reduction in urban and semi-urban/rural feeders containing rooftop PVs. Their effectiveness is studied from the installation location and rating points of view. Later, a Monte Carlo based stochastic analysis is carried out to investigate their efficacy for different uncertainties of load and PV rating and location in the network. After the numerical analyses, a converter topology and control algorithm is proposed for the DSTATCOM and DVR for balancing the network voltage at their point of common coupling. A state feedback control, based on pole-shift technique, is developed to regulate the voltage in the output of the DSTATCOM and DVR converters such that the voltage balancing is achieved in the network. The dynamic feasibility of voltage unbalance and profile improvement in LV feeders, by the proposed structure and control algorithm for the DSTATCOM and DVR, is verified through detailed PSCAD/EMTDC simulations.

A feasibility study of multislice x-ray CT imaging of gel dosimeters using the “zero scan” method

This study extends the ‘zero scan’ method for CT imaging of polymer gel dosimeters to include multi-slice acquisitions. Multi slice CT images consisting of 24 slices of 1.2 mm thickness were acquired of an irradiated polymer gel dosimeter, and processed with the zero scan technique. The results demonstrate that zero scan based gel readout can be successfully applied to generate a three dimensional image of the irradiated gel field. Compared to the raw CT images the processed figures and cross gel profiles demonstrated reduced noise and clear visibility of the penumbral region. Moreover these improved results further highlight the suitability of this method in volumetric reconstruction with reduced CT data acquisition per slice. This work shows that 3D volumes of irradiated polymer gel dosimeters can be acquired and processed with x-ray CT.

Performance-driven live migration of multiple virtual machines in datacenters

Live migration of multiple Virtual Machines (VMs) has become an indispensible management activity in datacenters for application performance, load balancing, server consolidation. While state-of-the-art live VM migration strategies focus on the improvement of the migration performance of a single VM, little attention has been given to the case of multiple VMs migration. Moreover, existing works on live VM migration ignore the inter-VM dependencies, and underlying network topology and its bandwidth. Different sequences of migration and different allocations of bandwidth result in different total migration times and total migration downtimes. This paper concentrates on developing a multiple VMs migration scheduling algorithm such that the performance of migration is maximized. We evaluate our proposed algorithm through simulation. The simulation results show that our proposed algorithm can migrate multiple VMs on any datacenter with minimum total migration time and total migration downtime.

Structuring acyclic process models

This article studies the problem of transforming a process model with an arbitrary topology into an equivalent well-structured process model. While this problem has received significant attention, there is still no full characterization of the class of unstructured process models that can be transformed into well-structured ones, nor an automated method for structuring any process model that belongs to this class. This article fills this gap in the context of acyclic process models. The article defines a necessary and sufficient condition for an unstructured acyclic process model to have an equivalent well-structured process model under fully concurrent bisimulation, as well as a complete structuring method. The method has been implemented as a tool that takes process models captured in the BPMN and EPC notations as input. The article also reports on an empirical evaluation of the structuring method using a repository of process models from commercial practice.

Generalized aggregate Quality of Service computation for composite services

This article addresses the problem of estimating the Quality of Service (QoS) of a composite service given the QoS of the services participating in the composition. Previous solutions to this problem impose restrictions on the topology of the orchestration models, limiting their applicability to well-structured orchestration models for example. This article lifts these restrictions by proposing a method for aggregate QoS computation that deals with more general types of unstructured orchestration models. The applicability and scalability of the proposed method are validated using a collection of models from industrial practice.

Structuring acyclic process models

This paper addresses the problem of transforming a process model with an arbitrary topology into an equivalent well-structured process model. While this problem has received significant attention, there is still no full characterization of the class of unstructured process models that can be transformed into well-structured ones, nor an automated method to structure any process model that belongs to this class. This paper fills this gap in the context of acyclic process models. The paper defines a necessary and sufficient condition for an unstructured process model to have an equivalent structured model under fully concurrent bisimulation, as well as a complete structuring method.

Image-guided sampling reveals increased stroma and lower glandular complexity in mammographically dense breast tissue

Mammographic density (MD) adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) is a strong heritable breast cancer risk factor; however, its biological basis remains elusive. Previous studies assessed MD-associated histology using random sampling approaches, despite evidence that high and low MD areas exist within a breast and are negatively correlated with respect to one another. We have used an image-guided approach to sample high and low MD tissues from within individual breasts to examine the relationship between histology and degree of MD. Image-guided sampling was performed using two different methodologies on mastectomy tissues (n = 12): (1) sampling of high and low MD regions within a slice guided by bright (high MD) and dark (low MD) areas in a slice X-ray film; (2) sampling of high and low MD regions within a whole breast using a stereotactically guided vacuum-assisted core biopsy technique. Pairwise analysis accounting for potential confounders (i.e. age, BMI, menopausal status, etc.) provides appropriate power for analysis despite the small sample size. High MD tissues had higher stromal (P = 0.002) and lower fat (P = 0.002) compositions, but no evidence of difference in glandular areas (P = 0.084) compared to low MD tissues from the same breast. High MD regions had higher relative gland counts (P = 0.023), and a preponderance of Type I lobules in high MD compared to low MD regions was observed in 58% of subjects (n = 7), but did not achieve significance. These findings clarify the histologic nature of high MD tissue and support hypotheses regarding the biophysical impact of dense connective tissue on mammary malignancy. They also provide important terms of reference for ongoing analyses of the underlying genetics of MD.

A dual inverter-based supercapacitor direct integration scheme for wind energy conversion systems

Interfacing converters used in connecting energy storage systems like supercapacitors and battery banks to wind power systems introduce additional cost and power losses. This paper therefore presents a direct integration scheme for supercapacitors used in mitigating short-term power fluctuations in wind power systems. This scheme uses a dual inverter topology for both grid connection and interfacing a supercapacitor bank. The main inverter of the dual inverter system is powered by the rectified output of a wind turbine-coupled permanent-magnet synchronous generator. The auxiliary inverter is directly connected to the supercapacitor bank. With this approach, an interfacing converter is not required, and there are no associated costs and power losses incurred. The operation of the proposed system is discussed in detail. Simulation and experimental results are presented to verify the efficacy of the proposed system in suppressing short-term wind power fluctuations.

Design of a robust grid interface system for PMSG-based wind turbine generators

A robust and reliable grid power interface system for wind turbines using a permanent-magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) is proposed in this paper, where an integration of a generator-side three-switch buck-type rectifier and a grid-side Z-source inverter is employed as a bridge between the generator and the grid. The modulation strategy for the proposed topology is developed from space-vector modulation and Z-source network operation principles. Two PMSG control methods, namely, unity-power-factor control and rotor-flux-orientation control (Id = 0), are studied to establish an optimized control scheme for the generator-side three-switch buck-type rectifier. The system control scheme decouples active- and reactive-power control through voltage-oriented control and optimizes PMSG control for the grid- and generator-side converters independently. Maximum power point tracking is implemented by adjusting the shoot-through duty cycles of the Z-source network. The design considerations of the passive components are also provided. The performances and practicalities of the designed architecture have been verified by simulations and experiments.

Evaluation of resonant damping techniques for Z-source current-type inverter

For the renewable energy sources whose outputs vary continuously, a Z-source current-type inverter has been proposed as a possible buck-boost alternative for grid-interfacing. With a unique X-shaped LC network connected between its dc power source and inverter topology, Z-source current-type inverter is however expected to suffer from compounded resonant complications in addition to those associated with its second-order output filter. To improve its damping performance, this paper proposes the careful integration of Posicast or three-step compensators before the inverter pulse-width modulator for damping triggered resonant oscillations. In total, two compensators are needed for wave-shaping the inverter boost factor and modulation ratio, and they can conveniently be implemented using first-in first-out stacks and embedded timers of modern digital signal processors widely used in motion control applications. Both techniques are found to damp resonance of ac filter well, but for cases of transiting from current-buck to boost state, three-step technique is less effective due to the sudden intermediate discharging interval introduced by its non-monotonic stepping (unlike the monotonic stepping of Posicast damping). These findings have been confirmed both in simulations and experiments using an implemented laboratory prototype.

An improved gate driver for power MOSFETs using a cascode configuration

To overcome the limitations of existing gate drive topologies an improved gate drive concept is proposed to provide fast, controlled switching of power MOSFETs. The proposed topology exploits the cascode configuration with the inclusion of an active gate clamp to ensure that the driven MOSFET may be turned off under all load conditions. Key operating principles and advantages of the proposed gate drive topology are discussed. Characteristic waveforms are investigated via simulation and experimentation for the cascode driver in an inductive switching application at 375V and 10A. Experimental waveforms compared well with simulations with long gate charging delays (including the Miller plateau) being eliminated from the gate voltage waveform.

A matrix converter based Inductive Power Transfer system

Typical Inductive Power Transfer (IPT) systems employ two power conversion stages to generate a high frequency current from low frequency utility supply. This paper proposes a matrix converter based IPT system that facilitates the generation of high frequency current through a single power conversion stage. The proposed matrix converter topology transforms a 3-phase low frequency voltage system to a high frequency single phase voltage which in turn powers a series compensated IPT system. A comprehensive mathematical model is developed to investigate the behavior of the proposed IPT topology. Theoretical results are presented in comparison to simulations, which are performed in Matlab/ Simulink, to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed concept and the validity of the developed model.

Defining the spatiotemporal surveillance space for alien species’ invasions using approximate Bayesian computation

The spatiotemporal dynamics of an alien species invasion across a real landscape are typically complex. While surveillance is an essential part of a management response, planning surveillance in space and time present a difficult challenge due to this complexity. We show here a method for determining the highest probability sites for occupancy across a landscape at an arbitrary point in the future, based on occupancy data from a single slice in time. We apply to the method to the invasion of Giant Hogweed, a serious weed in the Czech republic and throughout Europe.