Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in the Gulf of Maine: Pattern and Role of Zooplankton and Pelagic Nekton

This paper forms part of a broader overview of biodiversity of marine life in the Gulf of Maine area (GoMA), facilitated by the GoMA Census of Marine Life program. It synthesizes current data on species diversity of zooplankton and pelagic nekton, including compilation of observed species and descriptions of seasonal, regional and cross-shelf diversity patterns. Zooplankton diversity in the GoMA is characterized by spatial differences in community composition among the neritic environment, the coastal shelf, and deep offshore waters. Copepod diversity increased with depth on the Scotian Shelf. On the coastal shelf of the western Gulf of Maine, the number of higher-level taxonomic groups declined with distance from shore, reflecting more nearshore meroplankton. Copepod diversity increased in late summer, and interdecadal diversity shifts were observed, including a period of higher diversity in the 1990s. Changes in species diversity were greatest on interannual scales, intermediate on seasonal scales, and smallest across regions, in contrast to abundance patterns, suggesting that zooplankton diversity may be a more sensitive indicator of ecosystem response to interannual climate variation than zooplankton abundance. Local factors such as bathymetry, proximity of the coast, and advection probably drive zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity patterns in the GoMA, while ocean-basin-scale diversity patterns probably contribute to the increase in diversity at the Scotian Shelf break, a zone of mixing between the cold-temperate community of the shelf and the warm-water community offshore. Pressing research needs include establishment of a comprehensive system for observing change in zooplankton and pelagic nekton diversity, enhanced observations of "underknown'' but important functional components of the ecosystem, population and metapopulation studies, and development of analytical modeling tools to enhance understanding of diversity patterns and drivers. Ultimately, sustained observations and modeling analysis of biodiversity must be effectively communicated to managers and incorporated into ecosystem approaches for management of GoMA living marine resources.

Visualizing the Simulation of 3-D Underwater Sensor Networks

The majority of sensor network research deals with land-based networks, which are essentially two-dimensional, and thus the majority of simulation and animation tools also only handle such networks. Underwater sensor networks on the other hand, are essentially 3D networks because the depth at which a sensor node is located needs to be considered as well. Due to that additional dimension, specialized tools need to be used when conducting simulations for experimentation. The School of Engineering’s Underwater Sensor Network (UWSN) lab is conducting research on underwater sensor networks and requires simulation tools for 3D networks. The lab has extended NS-2, a widely used network simulator, so that it can simulate three-dimensional networks. However, NAM, a widely used network animator, currently only supports two-dimensional networks and no extensions have been implemented to give it three-dimensional capabilities. In this project, we develop a network visualization tool that functions similarly to NAM but is able to render network environments in full 3-D. It is able to take as input a NS-2 trace file (the same file taken as input by NAM), create the environment, position the sensor nodes, and animate the events of the simulation. Further, the visualization tool is easy to use, especially friendly to NAM users, as it is designed to follow the interfaces and functions similar to NAM. So far, the development has fulfilled the basic functionality. Future work includes fully functional capabilities for visualization and much improved user interfaces.

The assumptions and effects of conservative procedures in low -dose risk assessment for setting safety standards

Conservative procedures in low-dose risk assessment are used to set safety standards for known or suspected carcinogens. However, the assumptions upon which the methods are based and the effects of these methods are not well understood.^ To minimize the number of false-negatives and to reduce the cost of bioassays, animals are given very high doses of potential carcinogens. Results must then be extrapolated to much smaller doses to set safety standards for risks such as one per million. There are a number of competing methods that add a conservative safety factor into these calculations.^ A method of quantifying the conservatism of these methods was described and tested on eight procedures used in setting low-dose safety standards. The results using these procedures were compared by computer simulation and by the use of data from a large scale animal study.^ The method consisted of determining a "true safe dose" (tsd) according to an assumed underlying model. If one assumed that Y = the probability of cancer = P(d), a known mathematical function of the dose, then by setting Y to some predetermined acceptable risk, one can solve for d, the model's "true safe dose".^ Simulations were generated, assuming a binomial distribution, for an artificial bioassay. The eight procedures were then used to determine a "virtual safe dose" (vsd) that estimates the tsd, assuming a risk of one per million. A ratio R = ((tsd-vsd)/vsd) was calculated for each "experiment" (simulation). The mean R of 500 simulations and the probability R $<$ 0 was used to measure the over and under conservatism of each procedure.^ The eight procedures included Weil's method, Hoel's method, the Mantel-Byran method, the improved Mantel-Byran, Gross's method, fitting a one-hit model, Crump's procedure, and applying Rai and Van Ryzin's method to a Weibull model.^ None of the procedures performed uniformly well for all types of dose-response curves. When the data were linear, the one-hit model, Hoel's method, or the Gross-Mantel method worked reasonably well. However, when the data were non-linear, these same methods were overly conservative. Crump's procedure and the Weibull model performed better in these situations. ^

Temperature-dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae)

Temperature-dependent population growth of diamondback moth (DBM) Plutella xylostella (L.), a prolific insect pest of crucifer vegetables, was studied under six constant temperatures in the laboratory. The objective of the study was to predict the impacts of temperature changes on the population of DBM at high-resolution scales along altitudinal gradients and under climate change scenarios. Non-linear functions were fitted on the data for modeling the development, mortality, longevity and oviposition of the pest. The best-fitted functions for each life stage were compiled for estimating the life table parameters of the species by stochastic simulations. To quantify the impacts on the pest, three indices (establishment, generation and activity) were computed using the estimates of life table parameters and temperature data obtained at local scale (current scenario 2013) and downscaled climate change data (future scenario 2055) from the AFRICLIM database. To measure and represent the impacts of temperature change along the altitude on the pest; the indices were mapped along the altitudinal gradients of Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills, in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Potential impact of the changes between climate scenarios 2013 and 2055 was assessed. The data files included in this database were utilized for the above analysis to develop temperature dependent phenology of Plutella xylostella to assess current and future distribution along eastern African Afromontanes.

High-resolution in situ oxygen microprofiles, porewater and solid phase geochemistry from the Crimean shelf (Black Sea) from Maria S. Merian cruise MSM15/1

The outer western Crimean shelf of the Black Sea is a natural laboratory to investigate effects of stable oxic versus varying hypoxic conditions on seafloor biogeochemical processes and benthic community structure. Bottom-water oxygen concentrations ranged from normoxic (175 µmol O2/L) and hypoxic (< 63 µmol O2/L) or even anoxic/sulfidic conditions within a few kilometers' distance. Variations in oxygen concentrations between 160 and 10 µmol/L even occurred within hours close to the chemocline at 134 m water depth. Total oxygen uptake, including diffusive as well as fauna-mediated oxygen consumption, decreased from 15 mmol/m**2/d on average in the oxic zone, to 7 mmol/m**2/d on average in the hypoxic zone, correlating with changes in macrobenthos composition. Benthic diffusive oxygen uptake rates, comprising respiration of microorganisms and small meiofauna, were similar in oxic and hypoxic zones (on average 4.5 mmol/m**2/d), but declined to 1.3 mmol/m**2/d in bottom waters with oxygen concentrations below 20 µmol/L. Measurements and modeling of porewater profiles indicated that reoxidation of reduced compounds played only a minor role in diffusive oxygen uptake under the different oxygen conditions, leaving the major fraction to aerobic degradation of organic carbon. Remineralization efficiency decreased from nearly 100 % in the oxic zone, to 50 % in the oxic-hypoxic zone, to 10 % in the hypoxic-anoxic zone. Overall, the faunal remineralization rate was more important, but also more influenced by fluctuating oxygen concentrations, than microbial and geochemical oxidation processes.

Chemical and Sr isotopic compositions of pore fluids and marine carbonates from ODP Hole 130-807A

The 87Sr/86Sr ratios and Sr concentrations in sediment and pore fluids are used to evaluate the rates of calcite recrystallization at ODP Site 807A on the Ontong Java Plateau, an 800-meter thick section of carbonate ooze and chalk. A numerical model is used to evaluate the pore fluid chemistry and Sr isotopes in an accumulating section. The deduced calcite recrystallization rate is 2% per million years (%/Myr) near the top of the section and decreases systematically in older parts of the section such that the rate is close to 0.1/age (in years). The deduced recrystallization rates have important implications for the interpretation of Ca and Mg concentration profiles in the pore fluids. The effect of calcite recrystallization on pore fluid chemistry is described by the reaction length, L, which varies by element, and depends on the concentration in pore fluid and solid. When L is small compared to the thickness of the sedimentary section, the pore fluid concentration is controlled by equilibrium or steady-state exchange with the solid phase, except within a distance L of the sediment-water interface. When L is large relative to the thickness of sediment, the pore fluid concentration is mostly controlled by the boundary conditions and diffusion. The values of L for Ca, Sr, and Mg are of order 15, 150, and 1500 meters, respectively. L_Sr is derived from isotopic data and modeling, and allows us to infer the values of L_Ca and L_Mg. The small value for L_Ca indicates that pore fluid Ca concentrations, which gradually increase down section, must be equilibrium values that are maintained by solution-precipitation exchange with calcite and do not reflect Ca sources within or below the sediment column. The pore fluid Ca measurements and measured alkalinity allow us to calculate the in situ pH in the pore fluids, which decreases from 7.6 near the sediment-water interface to 7.1+/-0.1 at 400-800 mbsf. While the calculated pH values are in agreement with some of the values measured during ODP Leg 130, most of the measurements are artifacts. The large value for L_Mg indicates that the pore fluid Mg concentrations at 807A are not controlled by calcite-fluid equilibrium but instead are determined by the changing Mg concentration of seawater during deposition, modified by aqueous diffusion in the pore fluids. We use the pore fluid Mg concentration profile at Site 807A to retrieve a global record for seawater Mg over the past 35 Myr, which shows that seawater Mg has increased rapidly over the past 10 Myr, rather than gradually over the past 60 Myr. This observation suggests that the Cenozoic rise in seawater Mg is controlled by continental weathering inputs rather than by exchange with oceanic crust. The relationship determined between reaction rate and age in silicates and carbonates is strikingly similar, which suggests that reaction affinity is not the primary determinant of silicate dissolution rates in nature.

Sable isotope record and sediment composition of Cretaceous samples of Deremara Rise

We estimate tropical Atlantic upper ocean temperatures using oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca ratios in well-preserved planktonic foraminifera extracted from Albian through Santonian black shales recovered during Ocean Drilling Program Leg 207 (North Atlantic Demerara Rise). On the basis of a range of plausible assumptions regarding seawater composition at the time the data support temperatures between 33° and 42°C. In our low-resolution data set spanning ~84-100 Ma a local temperature maximum occurs in the late Turonian, and a possible minimum occurs in the mid to early late Cenomanian. The relation between single species foraminiferal d18O and Mg/Ca suggests that the ratio of magnesium to calcium in the Turonian-Coniacian ocean may have been lower than in the Albian-Cenomanian ocean, perhaps coincident with an ocean 87Sr/86Sr minimum. The carbon isotopic compositions of distinct marine algal biomarkers were measured in the same sediment samples. The d13C values of phytane, combined with foraminiferal d13C and inferred temperatures, were used to estimate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations through this interval. Estimates of atmospheric CO2 concentrations range between 600 and 2400 ppmv. Within the uncertainty in the various proxies, there is only a weak overall correspondence between higher (lower) tropical temperatures and more (less) atmospheric CO2. The GENESIS climate model underpredicts tropical Atlantic temperatures inferred from ODP Leg 207 foraminiferal d18O and Mg/Ca when we specify approximate CO2 concentrations estimated from the biomarker isotopes in the same samples. Possible errors in the temperature and CO2 estimates and possible deficiencies in the model are discussed. The potential for and effects of substantially higher atmospheric methane during Cretaceous anoxic events, perhaps derived from high fluxes from the oxygen minimum zone, are considered in light of recent work that shows a quadratic relation between increased methane flux and atmospheric CH4 concentrations. With 50 ppm CH4, GENESIS sea surface temperatures approximate the minimum upper ocean temperatures inferred from proxy data when CO2 concentrations specified to the model are near those inferred using the phytane d13C proxy. However, atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 3500 ppm or more are still required in the model in order to reproduce inferred maximum temperatures.

Temperature, water level and bathymetry of thermokarst lakes in the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia - Lena River Delta, Siberia

Thermokarst lakes are typical features of the northern permafrost ecosystems, and play an important role in the thermal exchange between atmosphere and subsurface. The objective of this study is to describe the main thermal processes of the lakes and to quantify the heat exchange with the underlying sediments. The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta) were investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a 3-year period (2009-2012), together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. Lakes were covered by ice up to 2 m thick that persisted for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increased at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. Prior to ice break-up, solar radiation effectively warmed the water beneath the ice cover and induced convective mixing. Ice break-up started at the beginning of June and lasted until the middle or end of June. Mixing occurred within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continued during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers, a quantitative measure of the balance between wind mixing and stratification that is important for describing the biogeochemical cycles of lakes. The lake thermal regime was modeled numerically using the FLake model. The model demonstrated good agreement with observations with regard to the mean lake temperature, with a good reproduction of the summer stratification during the ice-free period, but poor agreement during the ice-covered period. Modeled sensitivity to lake depth demonstrated that lakes in this climatic zone with mean depths > 5 m develop continuous stratification in summer for at least 1 month. The modeled vertical heat flux across the bottom sediment tends towards an annual mean of zero, with maximum downward fluxes of about 5 W/m**2 in summer and with heat released back into the water column at a rate of less than 1 W/m**2 during the ice-covered period. The lakes are shown to be efficient heat absorbers and effectively distribute the heat through mixing. Monthly bottom water temperatures during the ice-free period range up to 15 °C and are therefore higher than the associated monthly air or ground temperatures in the surrounding frozen permafrost landscape. The investigated lakes remain unfrozen at depth, with mean annual lake-bottom temperatures of between 2.7 and 4 °C.

Orbital-resolution Pliocene-Pleistocene simulations of CO2, sea level, global temperature and benthic d18O, and d11B-based proxy-CO2 data

During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.

Field measurements of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and sub-ice platelet layer at Atka Bay in 2013

Ice shelves strongly interact with coastal Antarctic sea ice and the associated ecosystem by creating conditions favourable to the formation of a sub-ice platelet layer. The close investigation of this phenomenon and its seasonal evolution remain a challenge due to logistical constraints and a lack of suitable methodology. In this study, we characterize the seasonal cycle of Antarctic fast ice adjacent to the Ekström Ice Shelf in the eastern Weddell Sea. We used a thermistor chain with the additional ability to record the temperature response induced by cyclic heating of resistors embedded in the chain. Vertical sea-ice temperature and heating profiles obtained daily between November 2012 and February 2014 were analyzed to determine sea-ice and snow evolution, and to calculate the basal energy budget. The residual heat flux translated into an ice-volume fraction in the platelet layer of 0.18 ± 0.09, which we reproduced by a independent model simulation and agrees with earlier results. Manual drillings revealed an average annual platelet-layer thickness increase of at least 4m, and an annual maximum thickness of 10m beneath second-year sea ice. The oceanic contribution dominated the total sea-ice production during the study, effectively accounting for up to 70% of second-year sea-ice growth. In summer, an oceanic heat flux of 21 W/m**2 led to a partial thinning of the platelet layer. Our results further show that the active heating method, in contrast to the acoustic sounding approach, is well suited to derive the fast-ice mass balance in regions influenced by ocean/ice-shelf interaction, as it allows sub-diurnal monitoring of the platelet-layer thickness.