1000 resultados para Simulação em Estatística
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A dynamic systems water resources simulation model was developed as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for the Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiaí River Water Basins (BH-PCJ). Different politics policy were simulated for 40-year. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as contamination load from several consumers. Six runs were performed using average precipitation value, changing water supply and demand, and different volumes diverted from BH-PCJ to BH-Alto Tietê For the Business as Usual, the Sustainability Index went from 0.41 in 2010 to 0.22 by 2050; the Water Use Index changed from 80.7% in 2010, to 125.5% by 2050; and the Falkenmark Index changed from 1,302 m 3 person -1 year -1 in 2010 to 774 m 3 P -1 year -1 by 2050. It was noticed that sanitation is one of the biggest concerns in the near future at PCJ River Basin.
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According to CONAMA Resolution No. 357, the Água Branca Creek is framed in Class 2 and along its course the characteristics should be consistent with this class. Evaluation of diffuse loads and simulation of auto-purification in the Água Branca Creek allowed evaluating the alterations in the quality of the freshwater. The major contribution of diffuse loads in the basin of the White Water Creek is related to agriculture. The QUAL2K modeling identified the autopurification zones at Água Branca Creek and indicated the necessity BDO removal of 75%.
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In São Paulo state, deforestation and agriculture activities are increasing soil losses processes, especially in areas of susceptible soils where soil conservation practices are not adopted. Environmental adequacy at property level regarding Permanent Protection Areas and Legal Reserves is considered a potential factor for reducing soil losses and it was based on this fact that we assessed soil losses of different scenarios of environmental adequacy. Simulations of erosive processes were carried out in 15 catchments of the Corumbataí river basin, with different forest restoration scenarios, as well as the current situation of land use/ land cover. The scenarios include reforestation of Permanent Preservation Areas (PPA); the reforestation hydrological sensitive areas; and two scenarios, the Legal Reserve installation in 20% of each catchment, being one of them for most critical areas in terms of erosion and the other at random. It was observed that the establishment of PPA and the reforestation of hydrological sensitive areas (HSA), offered a small contribution to the control of the erosive process, resulting in a reduction of 10% and 7.4%, respectively, while the legal reserve in critical areas has the significant reduction of 69.8%. The random scenario, in turn, resulted in a reduction of 21.4% of erosion. Results show that reforestation can reduce soil losses, but previous studies of land prioritization and planning could significantly increase its efficiency.
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Incluye Bibliografía
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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Agricultura) - FCA
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Incluye Bibliografía
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Pós-graduação em Biofísica Molecular - IBILCE
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Pós-graduação em Biofísica Molecular - IBILCE
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEIS
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Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEIS
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)