DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

Some causes of unreliability of fishery statistics on the African great lakes and possible ways of bettering the statistics

This paper is based on a two year's intensive statistical data collection survey on Lake Kyoga, observations made on Lake Victoria over the last decade occasional visits on Lake Albert (Mobutu) and Lake Malawi. World over, scientists have kept doubting the fisheries statistical figures presented by various African countries. Some countries fail to present any figures. This paper, therefore, narrates most of the causes and possible solutions to those problems.

Past and recent trends in the exploitation of the great lakes fisheries of Uganda

Uganda's fish production has shown a substantial increase from a level of 61,500 tonnes in 1961 to a total of 214,302 tonnes in 1988. During this period significant changes also occurred in species composition, fishing factors, and patterns of utilisation. This paper briefly summarises the fisheries of Uganda's great lakes and reviews past and present trends in their exploitation, as reflected in available catch and effort data collected through the Fisheries Department statistical reporting system.

On dangers to rational exploitation and development of the resources of the great lakes of Africa

The major dangers facing the resources of the Great Lakes of Africa include over exploitation, falling species diversity, accumulating pollution, and a probable decline in fishery productivity. These dangers may be viewed as accentuated by: i) Inadequate scientific knowledge on the exploited resources ii) Reluctance to apply even the limited scientific information available, by fishery administrators iii) Constant increase in the demand for fish and other aquatic resources. iv) Lack of commitment to active collaboration and co-operation by riparian states regarding development and management of the shared resources. This paper discusses the above factors in relation to the dangerous trends facing the resources of the Great Lakes of Africa. The discussion is intended to contribute to the promotion of rational and sustainable utilisation of the aquatic resources of these lakes.

The exploitation of small pelagic fishes of the great lakes of Africa with reference to the mukene (Rastrineobola argentea) fishery of the northern waters of Lake Victoria

Small pelagic fish species have ultimately become important on most of the Great Lakes of Africa, especially after the depletion of the larger, initially preferred fish species. In Lake Victoria, the small pelagic cyprinid Rastrineobola argentea is now the only abundant native species supporting a fast growing light fishery. In Pilkington Bay, off Lingira Island the artisanal light fishery is well established and in the last two years this bay has witnessed a sharp increase in the fishing effort. This has been followed by a modification of fishing method and a reduction in the mesh size of nets used. R. argentea now caught from this bay consist of mainly juveniles and this could result into localized recruitment overfishing. Drawing examples from what is happening to the fishery in Pilkington Bay, it is necessary to carry out research on the stocks, gear and suitable fishing crafts before light fishing spreads to most parts of the lake.

The Great Irish Famine in history-writing and prose fiction : "the mutual interplay of two narrative genres"

Denna tvärvetenskapliga studie kontextualiserar den skönlitterära framställningen av hungersnöden i Irland i mitten av 1800-talet i förhållande till tre olika faser av irländsk historieskrivning ‒ den nationalistiska, den revisionistiska, och den postrevisionistiska ‒ med syfte att granska i vilken mån prosafiktionen antingen återspeglar eller motsäger historikernas tolkningar. År 1845 drabbades landet av en dittills okänd potatispest som förstörde skörden helt eller delvis under de följande fem åren. Missväxten ledde till utbredd svält och epidemiska sjukdomar som dödade åtminstone en miljon människor, medan ytterligare en och en halv miljon flydde, huvudsakligen till Förenta Staterna, England, och Kanada. I sina försök att hitta en rationell förklaring till hur potatispesten kunde utvecklas till den värsta svältkatastrofen i Europa under modern tid, har historiker påvisat ett antal bidragande faktorer, till exempel överbefolkning, de fattigaste jordlösa småbrukarnas och lantarbetarnas beroende av potatisen som sitt baslivsmedel, underutveckling inom jordbruket, det rådande jordegendomssystemet, och den dåvarande brittiska regeringens misslyckande att tillhandahålla effektiv och tillräcklig nödhjälp. Historiska förklaringar är naturligtvis nödvändiga för att vi skall kunna bilda oss en uppfattning om hungersnödens orsaker och konsekvenser, men svårigheten med att skildra offrens situation i en historiografisk analys baserad på fakta är uppenbar då deras egna vittnesmål till största delen saknas i källmaterialet. Följaktligen finns det en risk att historieskrivningen förmörkar det som onekligen var centrala realiteter för de värst drabbade, nämligen svält, vräkning, sjukdom och död. Här kan skönlitteraturen bidra till att komplettera historien. Genom att fokusera på ett specifikt (fiktivt) samhälle och dess (fiktiva) individer, kan skönlitterära verk ge en inblick i hur hungersnöden inverkade på olika samhällsskikt, vad människorna gjorde för att överleva, hur nöden och fasorna påverkade deras psyke, och vad eller vem de höll ansvariga för katastrofen. Å andra sidan kan denna fokusering innebära att författaren misslyckas med att ge en helhetsbild av hungersnödens enorma omfattning och att redogöra för alla faktorer som orsakade och förlängde den. Paul Ricoeurs teori om samspelet mellan historia och fiktion (the interweaving of history and fiction) är därför ett nyckelbegrepp för att bättre förstå denna traumatiska period i Irlands historia. Avhandlingen omfattar en textanalytisk, komparativ kritik av ett antal historiska och skönlitterära verk. Genom närläsning av dessa texter granskar jag vilka aspekter av hungersnöden (politiska, ekonomiska, sociala) de olika författarna valt att behandla, och på vilket sätt, samt hur deras synvinklar har format tolkningarna i sin helhet. I detta sammanhang tar jag också upp skillnaderna mella fakta och fiktion, och speciellt de etiska problem som är förknippade med skildringen av traumatiska händelser och mänskligt lidande. Samtidigt undersöker jag, med hänvisning till Roger D. Sells kommunikationsteori, huruvida vissa författare anslår en påstridig ton i sina verk och hur detta påverkar dialogen mellan författare och läsare. Med utgångspunkt i Ricoeurs teori argumenterar jag för att historia och fiktion inte bör ses som ömsesidigt antitetiska diskurser i skildringen och tolkningen av det förflutna, och att skönlitteraturen genom fokuseringen på offren, som ofta tenderar att reduceras till statistik i historieskrivningen, kan förmedla en bättre förståelse och en djupare känsla för den mänskliga dimensionen av den tragedi som utspelades under hungeråren.

The Christians and the great commission. A brief history of the home and foreign missionary work of the Christian church, with biographical sketches of foreign missionaries

Mode of access: Internet.

[North America

Scale ca. 1:9,000,000.

A map of the United States of North America /

Shows many roads, has "Tennassee" on sheet 3, as well as the 22 line boundaries note.

Plant Migrations Impact on Potential Vegetation and Carbon Redistribution in Northern North America from Climate Change

Forests have a prominent role in carbon storage and sequestration. Anthropogenic forcing has the potential to accelerate climate change and alter the distribution of forests. How forests redistribute spatially and temporally in response to climate change can alter their carbon sequestration potential. The driving question for this research was: How does plant migration from climate change impact vegetation distribution and carbon sequestration potential over continental scales? Large-scale simulation of the equilibrium response of vegetation and carbon from future climate change has shown relatively modest net gains in sequestration potential, but studies of the transient response has been limited to the sub-continent or landscape scale. The transient response depends on fine scale processes such as competition, disturbance, landscape characteristics, dispersal, and other factors, which makes it computational prohibitive at large domain sizes. To address this, this research used an advanced mechanistic model (Ecosystem Demography Model, ED) that is individually based, but pseudo-spatial, that reduces computational intensity while maintaining the fine scale processes that drive the transient response. First, the model was validated against remote sensing data for current plant functional type distribution in northern North America with a current climatology, and then a future climatology was used to predict the potential equilibrium redistribution of vegetation and carbon from future climate change. Next, to enable transient calculations, a method was developed to simulate the spatially explicit process of dispersal in pseudo-spatial modeling frameworks. Finally, the new dispersal sub-model was implemented in the mechanistic ecosystem model, and a model experimental design was designed and completed to estimate the transient response of vegetation and carbon to climate change. The potential equilibrium forest response to future climate change was found to be large, with large gross changes in distribution of plant functional types and comparatively smaller changes in net carbon sequestration potential for the region. However, the transient response was found to be on the order of centuries, and to depend strongly on disturbance rates and dispersal distances. Future work should explore the impact of species-specific disturbance and dispersal rates, landscape fragmentation, and other processes that influence migration rates and have been simulated at the sub-continent scale, but now at continental scales, and explore a range of alternative future climate scenarios as they continue to be developed.

The North American Indian in the World War /

Relief shown by hachures.

BALD EAGLES (HALIAEETUS LEUCOCEPHALUS) AS INDICATORS OF GREAT LAKES ECOSYSTEM HEALTH

Environmental indicators have been proposed as a means to assess ecological integrity, monitoring both chemical and biological stressors. In this study, we used nestling bald eagles as indicators to quantify direct or indirect tertiary-level contaminant exposure. The spatial and temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners were evaluated in nestling plasma from 1999–2014. Two hexa-chlorinated congeners, PCB-138 and 153, were detected with the highest frequency and greatest concentrations throughout Michigan. Less-chlorinated congeners such as PCB-52 and 66 however, comprised a greater percentage of total PCB concentrations in nestlings proximate to urbanized areas, such as along the shorelines of Lake Erie. Toxic equivalents were greatest in the samples collected from nestlings located on Lake Erie, followed by the other Great Lakes spatial regions. Nestling plasma samples were also used to measure concentrations of the most heavily-used group of flame retardants, brominated diphenyl ethers (BDEs), and three groups of alternative flame retardants, non-BDE Brominated Flame Retardants (NBFRS), Dechloranes, and organophosphate esters (OPs). BDE-47, 99 and 100 contributed the greatest to total BDE concentrations. Concentrations of structurally similar NBFRs found in this study and recent atmospheric studies indicate that they are largely used as replacements to previously used BDE mixtures. A variety of Dechloranes, or derivatives of Mirex and Dechlorane Plus, were measured. Although, measured at lesser concentrations, environmental behavior of these compounds may be similar to mirex and warrant future research in aquatic species. Concentrations of OPs in nestling plasma were two to three orders of magnitude greater than all other groups of flame retardants. In addition to chemical indicators, bald eagles have also been proposed as indicators to identify ecological stressors using population measures that are tied to the fitness of individuals and populations. Using mortality as a population vitality rate, vehicle collisions were found to be the main source of mortality with a greater incidence for females during white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) hunting months and spring snow-melt. Lead poisoning was the second greatest source of mortality, with sources likely due to unretrieved hunter-killed, white-tailed deer carcasses, and possibly exacerbated by density-dependent effects due to the growing population in Michigan.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Pesky Pests of the Great Lakes State: Is Public Participation Influenced by Geographic Differences?

In Michigan, environmental issues, such as invasive species, are not geographically constrained, affecting citizens throughout the state. Regulations and management plans organized by scientists and officials are intended to address issues statewide, but these policies may not adequately tackle the threat from invasive species as it impacts different parts of the state at different times. Participation and contributions from citizens can offer insight into the impacts and changes non-native species have on the local ecosystem. However, chances to participate and contribute may be influenced by geographic location in the state. To understand if this was the case, this research studied publicly available documents and completed participant observations and semistructured interviews with participants, leaders, and officials included in invasive species management. Between the two study locations, Metro Detroit and the Western Upper Peninsula of Michigan, locational differences had some impact on opportunities to contribute to invasive species management. Population and the differences in the type of advertising used to alert citizens about events influenced access to participation opportunities. This research also revealed that this public policy issue lacks public involvement and contributions. Between the two locations, more involvement opportunities and organizations were present in Metro Detroit. However, it was the organizations themselves and their limited political involvement, and not geographic location, which had a greater impact on citizens' lack of participation in invasive species management.

Development of measurement and modeling techniques to quantify atmospheric deposition of persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals in the Great Lakes

Measurement and modeling techniques were developed to improve over-water gaseous air-water exchange measurements for persistent bioaccumulative and toxic chemicals (PBTs). Analytical methods were applied to atmospheric measurements of hexachlorobenzene (HCB), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Additionally, the sampling and analytical methods are well suited to study semivolatile organic compounds (SOCs) in air with applications related to secondary organic aerosol formation, urban, and indoor air quality. A novel gas-phase cleanup method is described for use with thermal desorption methods for analysis of atmospheric SOCs using multicapillary denuders. The cleanup selectively removed hydrogen-bonding chemicals from samples, including much of the background matrix of oxidized organic compounds in ambient air, and thereby improved precision and method detection limits for nonpolar analytes. A model is presented that predicts gas collection efficiency and particle collection artifact for SOCs in multicapillary denuders using polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) sorbent. An approach is presented to estimate the equilibrium PDMS-gas partition coefficient (Kpdms) from an Abraham solvation parameter model for any SOC. A high flow rate (300 L min-1) multicapillary denuder was designed for measurement of trace atmospheric SOCs. Overall method precision and detection limits were determined using field duplicates and compared to the conventional high-volume sampler method. The high-flow denuder is an alternative to high-volume or passive samplers when separation of gas and particle-associated SOCs upstream of a filter and short sample collection time are advantageous. A Lagrangian internal boundary layer transport exchange (IBLTE) Model is described. The model predicts the near-surface variation in several quantities with fetch in coastal, offshore flow: 1) modification in potential temperature and gas mixing ratio, 2) surface fluxes of sensible heat, water vapor, and trace gases using the NOAA COARE Bulk Algorithm and Gas Transfer Model, 3) vertical gradients in potential temperature and mixing ratio. The model was applied to interpret micrometeorological measurements of air-water exchange flux of HCB and several PCB congeners in Lake Superior. The IBLTE Model can be applied to any scalar, including water vapor, carbon dioxide, dimethyl sulfide, and other scalar quantities of interest with respect to hydrology, climate, and ecosystem science.