Managing risk in a large rural electrification programme in India

Rural electrification projects and programmes in many countries have suffered from design, planning, implementation and operational flaws as a result of ineffective project planning and lack of systematic project risk analysis. This paper presents a hierarchical risk-management framework for effectively managing large-scale development projects. The proposed framework first identifies, with the involvement of stakeholders, the risk factors for a rural electrification programme at three different levels (national, state and site). Subsequently it develops a qualitative risk prioritising scheme through probability and severity mapping and provides mitigating measures for most vulnerable risks. The study concludes that the hierarchical risk-management approach provides an effective framework for managing large-scale rural electrification programmes. © IAIA 2007.

Real options and multinational investments : an empirical study of risk, performance and organisational awareness

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT This thesis is a cross-disciplinary study of the empirical impact of real options theory in the fields of decision sciences and performance management. Borrowing from the economics, strategy and operations research literature, the research examines the risk and performance implications of real options in firms’ strategic investments and multinational operations. An emphasis is placed on the flexibility potential and competitive advantage of multinational corporations to explore the extent to which real options analysis can be classified as best practice in management research. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques the evidence suggests that, if real options are explored and exploited appropriately, real options management can result in superior performance for multinational companies. The qualitative findings give an overview of the practical advantages and disadvantages of real options and the statistical results reveal that firms which have developed a high awareness of their real options are, as predicted by the theory, able to reduce their downside risk and increase profits through flexibility, organisational slack and multinationality. Although real options awareness does not systematically guarantee higher returns from operations, supplementary findings indicate that firms with evidence of significant investments in the acquisition of real options knowledge tend to outperform competitors which are unaware of their real options. There are three contributions of this research. First, it extends the real options and capacity planning literature to path-dependent contingent-claims analysis to underline the benefits of average type options in capacity allocation. Second, it is thought to be the first to explicitly examine the performance effects of real options on a sample of firms which have developed partial capabilities in real options analysis suggesting that real options diffusion can be key to value creation. Third, it builds a new decision-aiding framework to facilitate the use of real options in projects appraisal and strategic planning.

"Crack down on the celebrity junkies": does media coverage of celebrity drug use pose a risk to young people?

This study analysed news media content to examine the role played by celebrity drug use in young people's perceptions of drug use. We know that young people have access to discourses of drug use through music and other media which may emphasise short term gains (of pleasure or sexual success) over longer term health and social problems. This study goes beyond a simple modelling approach by using Media Framing Analysis (MFA) to take an in-depth look at the messages themselves and how they are 'framed'. New stories about Amy Winehouse's drug use were used and we conducted focus groups with young people asking them questions about drugs, celebrity and the media. Frames identified include: 'troubled genius', 'losing patience' and 'glamorization or gritty realism'. Initially, the press championed Winehouse's musical talent but soon began to tire of her recklessness; the participants tended to be unimpressed with Winehouse's drug use, characterising her as a promising artist who had 'gone off the rails'. Young people were far more critical of Winehouse than might be expected, demonstrating that concerns about the influence of celebrity drug use and its impact on future health risk behaviour among young people may have been over-simplified and exaggerated. This study illustrates the need to understand young people and their frames of reference within popular culture when designing drug awareness information relevant to them. Furthermore, it indicates that critical media skills analysis may contribute to health risk education programmes related to drug use.

Reducing the risk of sexually transmitted infections in genitourinary medicine clinic patients:A systematic review and meta-analysis of behavioural interventions

Objectives: Are behavioural interventions effective in reducing the rate of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinic patients? Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis of published articles. Data sources: Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PsychINFO, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, Cochrane Library Controlled Clinical Trials Register, National Research Register (1966 to January 2004). Review methods: Randomised controlled trials of behavioural interventions in sexual health clinic patients were included if they reported change to STI rates or self reported sexual behaviour. Trial quality was assessed using the Jadad score and results pooled using random effects meta-analyses where outcomes were consistent across studies. Results: 14 trials were included; 12 based in the United States. Experimental interventions were heterogeneous and most control interventions were more structured than typical UK care. Eight trials reported data on laboratory confirmed infections, of which four observed a greater reduction in their intervention groups (in two cases this result was statistically significant, p<0.05). Seven trials reported consistent condom use, of which six observed a greater increase among their intervention subjects. Results for other measures of sexual behaviour were inconsistent. Success in reducing STIs was related to trial quality, use of social cognition models, and formative research in the target population. However, effectiveness was not related to intervention format or length. Conclusions: While results were heterogeneous, several trials observed reductions in STI rates. The most effective interventions were developed through extensive formative research. These findings should encourage further research in the United Kingdom where new approaches to preventing STIs are urgently required.

Before and after modelling:risk knowledge management is required

Risk and knowledge are two concepts and components of business management which have so far been studied almost independently. This is especially true where risk management is conceived mainly in financial terms, as, for example, in the banking sector. The banking sector has sophisticated methodologies for managing risk, such as mathematical risk modeling. However. the methodologies for analyzing risk do not explicitly include knowledge management for risk knowledge creation and risk knowledge transfer. Banks are affected by internal and external changes with the consequent accommodation to new business models new regulations and the competition of big players around the world. Thus, banks have different levels of risk appetite and policies in risk management. This paper takes into consideration that business models are changing and that management is looking across the organization to identify the influence of strategic planning, information systems theory, risk management and knowledge management. These disciplines can handle the risks affecting banking that arise from different areas, but only if they work together. This creates a need to view them in an integrated way. This article sees enterprise risk management as a specific application of knowledge in order to control deviation from strategic objectives, shareholders' values and stakeholders' relationships. Before and after a modeling process it necessary to find insights into how the application of knowledge management processes can improve the understanding of risk and the implementation of enterprise risk management. The article presents a propose methodology to contribute to providing a guide for developing risk modeling knowledge and a reduction of knowledge silos, in order to improve the quality and quantity of solutions related to risk inquiries across the organization.

Does post-caesarean dyspareunia reflect sexual malfunction, pelvic floor and perineal dysfunction?

The aim was to define post-caesarean dyspareunia as a sexual and pelvic-perineal symptom. Post-caesarean (80 elective, 104 emergency) and 100 vaginally delivered primiparae had domiciliary interviews at 10 months postpartum. A total of 50 (28% and 27%) post-caesarean and 46 (46%) vaginally delivered, reported dyspareunia. Severely impaired general sexual health occurred in 82 (24% elective, 25% emergency, 35% vaginally delivered) as category 3 (dyspareunia with sexual symptoms) and 27 (10% elective, 7% emergency, 12% vaginally delivered) as category 4 (reduced frequency <6). The risk of dyspareunia (RR 1.14, CI 0.73, 1.77) or impaired general sexual health (RR 0.93, CI 0.32, 2.74) was similar among those with or without perineal trauma. Both caesarean and perineal scars were associated with sexual malfunction. Primiparae with new incontinence had a lower risk of dyspareunia than impaired general sexual health. Awareness of the associations of post-caesarean dyspareunia and impaired general sexual health with incontinence would facilitate appropriate obstetric decision-making. Further research is indicated. © 2011 Informa UK, Ltd.

Properties of risk capital allocation methods: Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity

In finance risk capital allocation raises important questions both from theoretical and practical points of view. How to share risk of a portfolio among its subportfolios? How to reserve capital in order to hedge existing risk and how to assign this to different business units? We use an axiomatic approach to examine risk capital allocation, that is we call for fundamental properties of the methods. Our starting point is Csóka and Pintér (2011) who show by generalizing Young (1985)'s axiomatization of the Shapley value that the requirements of Core Compatibility, Equal Treatment Property and Strong Monotonicity are irreconcilable given that risk is quantified by a coherent measure of risk. In this paper we look at these requirements using analytic and simulations tools. We examine allocation methods used in practice and also ones which are theoretically interesting. Our main result is that the problem raised by Csóka and Pintér (2011) is indeed relevant in practical applications, that is it is not only a theoretical problem. We also believe that through the characterizations of the examined methods our paper can serve as a useful guide for practitioners.

Psychosocial variables associated with the co-occurrence of risky sexual behavior with alcohol consumption among university students

This study examined the association of theoretically guided and empirically identified psychosocial variables on the co-occurrence of risky sexual behavior with alcohol consumption among university students. The study utilized event analysis to determine whether risky sex occurred during the same event in which alcohol was consumed. Relevant conceptualizations included alcohol disinhibition, self-efficacy, and social network theories. Predictor variables included negative condom attitudes, general risk taking, drinking motives, mistrust, social group membership, and gender. Factor analysis was employed to identify dimensions of drinking motives. Measured risky sex behaviors were (a) sex without a condom, (b) sex with people not known very well, (c) sex with injecting drug users (IDUs), (d) sex with people without knowing whether they had a STD, and (e) sex with using drugs. A purposive sample was used and included 222 male and female students recruited from a major urban university. Chi-square analysis was used to determine whether participants were more likely to engage in risky sex behavior in different alcohol use contexts. These contexts were only when drinking, only when not drinking, and when drinking or not. The chi-square findings did not support the hypothesis that university students who use alcohol with sex will engage in riskier sex. These results added to the literature by extending other similar findings to a university student sample. For each of the observed risky sex behaviors, discriminant analysis methodology was used to determine whether the predictor variables would differentiate the drinking contexts, or whether the behavior occurred. Results from discriminant analyses indicated that sex with people not known very well was the only behavior for which there were significant discriminant functions. Gender and enhancement drinking motives were important constructs in the classification model. Limitations of the study and implications for future research, social work practice and policy are discussed. ^

A comparative analysis of school satisfaction and dropout risk of middle school students attending programs for students with emotional handicaps, severe emotional disturbance and general education students attending center schools and satellite schools

This study evaluated school satisfaction as an indicator of dropout risk of students with Emotional Handicaps (EH) and students with Severe Emotional Disturbance (SED). The students attended two different kinds of middle schools in a largely urban school district in South Florida. One hundred eight students in grade 8 (ages 13-16) participated in this study. Participants were administered the National Dropout Prevention Assessment (NDPA). Forty participants with EH and SED attended a special center school. Thirty-one participants with EH and SED attended satellite programs in a regular middle school. Thirty-seven general education participants attended the same regular middle school. Overall school satisfaction scores were generated, as well as three primary factors (school, environment and personal) and 16 subscales (school atmosphere, future income, difficulty level of classwork, teacher relationships, peer relationships, intrinsic interest in classwork, school hours, classwork stress, general attitude towards school, family influence, perceived opportunity for career, future goals, travel distance, leisure time, self-appraisal of performance, and self-esteem).^ Comparison of students with EH and SED revealed that both groups of students were rated at "low risk" of becoming dropouts on the Environmental factor and the Difficulty of Schoolwork subscale. Students with EH were rated at "caution risk" risk on the Travel Distance subscale. Students with SED were rated at "high risk" on this subscale.^ There were no significant differences in school satisfaction and dropout risk between different program delivery models. There were also no significant differences for category of students (EH, SED) by school type (center school, satellite program). All students were rated at "low risk" of dropping out of school.^ There were significant differences between general education students and students with EH and SED attending satellite programs. Students with EH and SED were rated at "caution risk" for dropping out on the Travel Distance and the Leisure Time subscales. Discussion of results, implications for practice and recommendations for further research are included. ^

Factors predicting recommendations for civil commitment of sexually violent predators under Florida's Jimmy Ryce Act

This study investigated the factors considered by forensic examiners when evaluating sexually violent predators (SVP) for civil commitment under Florida's “Jimmy Ryce Act.” The project was funded by a pre-doctoral research grant awarded by the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers (ATSA). ^ This study proposed two specific research questions. First, what is the direct relationship between actuarial risk assessment scores and recommendations for sex offender civil commitment? Second, which other variables are likely to influence SVP commitment decisions, and to what degree? The purpose of the study was to determine if risk assessment practices are evidence-based, and whether offenders selected for commitment meet statutory criteria. ^ The purposive sample of 450 SVPs was drawn from the population of sex offenders evaluated for civil commitment in Florida between July 1, 2000 and June 30, 2001. Data were extracted from SVP evaluations provided by the Florida Department of Children and Families. Using multivariate logistic regression, this correlational research design examined the relationship between the dependent variable, commitment decision, and several sets of independent variables. The independent variables were derived from a review of the literature, and were grouped conceptually according to their degree of correlation with sex offense recidivism. Independent variables included diagnoses, actuarial risk assessment scores, empirically validated static and dynamic risk factors, consensus based risk factors, evaluator characteristics, and demographics. This study investigated the degree to which the identified variables predicted civil commitment decisions. ^ Logistic regression results revealed that the statistically significant predictors of recommendations for sex offender civil commitment were actuarial risk assessment scores, diagnoses of Pedophilia and Paraphilia NOS, psychopathy, younger age of victim, and non-minority race. Discriminant function analysis confirmed that these variables correctly predicted commitment decisions in 90% of cases. ^ It appears that civil commitment evaluators in Florida used empirically-based assessment procedures, and did not make decisions that were heavily influenced by extraneous factors. SVPs recommended for commitment consistently met the criteria set forth by the U.S. Supreme Court in Hendricks v. Kansas (1997): they suffered from a mental abnormality predisposing them to sexual violence, and risk assessment determined that they were likely to reoffend. ^

Risk factors that predict maladaptive outcomes among sexually abused girls presenting for services at a community agency

The purpose of this study was to determine which factors predicted maladaptive outcomes in sexually abused children. Key factors were aggregated into four categories: abuse characteristics risk factors, individual-level risk factors, family disruption risk factors, and social disruption risk factors. It was hypothesized that (a) individual-level risk factors (e.g., school performance, child alcohol/substance abuse) and (b) abuse characteristics risk factors (e.g., longer duration/frequency of abuse, use of force/threats of force, intrafamilial abuse) would predict higher levels of trauma symptoms. Furthermore, it was hypothesized that (a) family disruption risk factors (e.g., family alcohol/substance use, family psychopathology) and (b) social disruption risk factors (e.g., parental divorce, homelessness, witnessing homicide or violence) would moderate the impact of prior sexual abuse and predict higher levels of trauma symptoms. ^ The participants were 110 female children (5 to 18 years old) presenting for treatment for sexual abuse at a community agency (The Journey Institute) in Miami, Florida. This study conducted a retrospective analysis of an archival data set collected over a three-year period (1998–2001). The measures completed upon intake included The Journey Psychosocial Assessment and The Trauma Symptom Checklist for Children (TSCC; Briere, 1996). Using Pearson correlations and hierarchical multiple regression analysis, this study found that abuse characteristics risk factors and individual-level risk factors were predictive of maladaptive outcomes in this sample of sexually abused girls. However, no moderating effects were found for family disruption risk factors or social disruption risk factors. Therefore, the results of these analyses provided support for the contention that abuse characteristics and individual-level risk factors were appropriate targets for treatment for sexually abused girls. Moreover, limitations of this study, implications for treatment, and directions for future research were discussed. ^

Alcohol use and sexual victimization among Hispanic college women

Sexual victimization of young women typically occurs within a context of alcohol use, such that women are more likely to be victimized on days on which they consume alcohol compared to days on which no alcohol is consumed. Additionally, most research on sexual victimization of women has focused on forced sexual acts; consequently, little is known about forms sexual victimization that college women typically experience, such as brief (e.g., unwanted touching) or verbally coerced experiences (e.g., doing sexual things to prevent a partner from leaving). Finally, there is a need for more research on the processes underlying college women's drinking and the specific mechanisms through which drinking increases risk for sexual victimization. This dissertation sought to replicate recent findings of a temporal association between alcohol use and sexual victimization, and to investigate whether or not binge use increased risk for victimization, within a sample of young Hispanic college women, using repeated-measures logistic regression. This study also aimed to identify and explore typologies of victimization experiences in order to better understand types of sexual victimization common among young college women. Finally, the validity of a model of alcohol use and sexual victimization was investigated using structural equation modeling techniques. The results confirmed and extended previous research by demonstrating an increase in the conditional probability of sexual victimization on days of alcohol consumption compared with days of no alcohol consumption, and on days of binge alcohol consumption compared with days of moderate alcohol consumption. Sexual victimization experiences reported in this study were diverse, and cluster analysis was used to identify and explore specific typologies of victimization experiences, including intimate relationship victimization, brief victimization with stranger, prolonged victimization with acquaintance, and workplace victimization. The results from structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses were complex and helped to illuminate the relationships between reasons for drinking, alcohol use, childhood sexual abuse, sexual victimization, psychopathology, and acculturation-related factors among Hispanic college women. These findings have implications for the design of university-based prevention and intervention efforts aimed at reducing rates of alcohol-related sexual victimization within Hispanic populations.

The boundaries of acceptance: Do expectations for the complainant's psychological injury affect legal decisions in a sexual harassment case

Research indicates that people engaged in legal decision-making use a host of biases and preconceptions to guide their decisions about whether the evidence presented to them is reasonable. However, few theories address how such expectations affect legal decision-makers. The present study attempted to determine if social judgment theory (SJT) can explain how and when legal decision-makers rely on expectations for the complainant's psychological injury in a hostile environment sexual harassment case. Two experiments provided undergraduate participants with a written summary of a hostile work environment allegation that first manipulated participants' expectations about reasonable psychological injuries (mild v. severe), and then presented them with actual severity levels of psychological injury (ranging from minimal to extreme). Experiment 1 (N = 295) hypothesized and found that participants who expected severe injuries perceived a greater range of psychological injuries to be reasonable than participants expecting mild injury. Experiment 2 ( N = 202) used similar methodology and investigated whether perceived reasonableness for the injury allegations affected legal decisions. Experiment 2 hypothesized that participants expecting severe psychological injury should render more pro-complainant decisions than participants expecting mild psychological injury. This result should be most pronounced when participants receive a moderate injury allegation, since this allegation was perceived as reasonable by participants expecting severe injury, but unreasonable by participants expecting mild injury. Consistent with SJT, participants who received a moderate injury but expected a severe injury found more liability than participants who received a moderate injury but expected a mild injury. Inconsistent with SJT, participants' expectations did not affect their compensatory damage decisions. In fact, more severe injury allegations increased damage awards regardless of participants' expectations. Although the results provide mixed support for applying SJT to legal decisions in sexual harassment cases, they emphasize the continuing role of oft-unstudied extra-legal factors (juror's expectations and psychological injury severity) on legal decisions.

Examination of the impact of personality, social, and cognitive factors on the co-occurrence of health risk behaviors among multi-problem youth: The utility of an integrative framework

Research has identified a number of putative risk factors that places adolescents at incrementally higher risk for involvement in alcohol and other drug (AOD) use and sexual risk behaviors (SRBs). Such factors include personality characteristics such as sensation-seeking, cognitive factors such as positive expectancies and inhibition conflict as well as peer norm processes. The current study was guided by a conceptual perspective that support the notion that an integrative framework that includes multi-level factors has significant explanatory value for understanding processes associated with the co-occurrence of AOD use and sexual risk behavior outcomes. This study evaluated simultaneously the mediating role of AOD-sex related expectancies and inhibition conflict on antecedents of AOD use and SRBs including sexual sensation-seeking and peer norms for condom use.^ The sample was drawn from the Enhancing My Personal Options While Evaluating Risk (EMPOWER: Jonathan Tubman, PI), data set (N = 396; aged 12-18 years). Measures used in the study included Sexual Sensation-Seeking Scale, Inhibition Conflict for Condom Use, Risky Sex Scale. All relevant measures had well-documented psychometric properties. A global assessment of alcohol, drug use and sexual risk behaviors was used.^ Results demonstrated that AOD-sex related expectancies mediated the influence of sexual sensation-seeking on the co-occurrence of alcohol and other drug use and sexual risk behaviors. The evaluation of the integrative model also revealed that sexual sensation-seeking was positively associated with peer norms for condom use. Also, peer norms predicted inhibition conflict among this sample of multi-problem youth. ^ This dissertation research identified mechanisms of risk and protection associated with the co-occurrence of AOD use and SRBs among a multi-problem sample of adolescents receiving treatment for alcohol or drug use and related problems. This study is informative for adolescent-serving programs that address those individual and contextual characteristics that enhance treatment efficacy and effectiveness among adolescents receiving substance use and related problems services.^

Bahamian men's sexual risks for HIV infection

Heterosexual adult men have been a neglected population that is at risk for HIV infection. In an era burdened by the devastation caused by HIV, it is alarming that risky sexual behavior continues to be a problem among heterosexuals. Heterosexual sexual behavior has contributed to a growing trend of HIV transmission in the Caribbean where the average prevalence in the adult population is 5%. Despite the availability of condoms and HIV prevention efforts of many Caribbean public health departments to reduce the spread of the disease, there appears to be barriers to safer sex practices. Guided by the theory of planned behavior, a descriptive correlational design was used with 185 Bahamian men ages 18 years and older to (a) examine the relationships among select demographics, masculine ideology, condom attitudes, self-efficacy for condom use, and safer sex behaviors; and (b) identify select predictors of condom use among Bahamian men. Data were collected using four standardized instruments and a demographic questionnaire. The results of this study suggest that masculine ideology, condom attitudes, and condom use self-efficacy are important in explaining 33% variance in safer sex behaviors among Bahamian men. Income (β = −.15, p < .01), masculine ideology (β = −.24, p < .01), condom attitudes, (β = .36, p < .01), and condom use self-efficacy (β = .1, p < .01) were significantly associated with safer sex behaviors. The empirical knowledge obtained from this study will be used to provide a rationale for nurses and policy makers to design and conduct culturally sensitive interventions with an aim of achieving an increase in safer sex behaviors among Bahamian men.^