Population Trends of a Mixed-Species Colony of Humboldt and Magellanic Penguins in Southern Chile after Establishing a Protected Area

Worldwide marine protected areas (MPAs) have been designated to protect marine resources, including top predators such as seabirds. There is no conclusive information on whether protected areas can improve population trends of seabirds when these are further exploited as tourist attractions, an activity that has increased in past decades. Humboldt Penguins (Spheniscus humboldti) and Magellanic Penguins (S. magellanicus) breed sympatrically on Puñihuil Islets, two small coastal islands off the west coast of Chiloé Island (41° S) in southern Chile that are subject to exploitation for tourism. Our goal was to compare the population size of the mixed colony of Humboldt and Magellanic Penguins before and after protection from unregulated tourism and freely roaming goats in 1997. For this purpose, two censuses were conducted in 2004 and 2008, and the numbers compared with those obtained in 1997 by other authors. The proportion of occupied, unoccupied, and collapsed/flooded burrows changed between years; there were 68% and 34% fewer collapsed burrows in 2004 and 2008, respectively, than in 1997. For the total number of burrows of both species, we counted 48% and 63% more burrows in 2004 and 2008, respectively, than in 1997. We counted 13% more burrows of Humboldt Penguins in 2008 than in 1997, and for Magellanic Penguins, we estimated a 64% increase in burrows in 2008. Presumably, this was as a result of habitat improvement attributable to the exclusion of tourists and the removal of goats from the islets. Although tourist visits to the islets are prohibited, tourism activities around the colonies are prevalent and need to be taken into account to promote appropriate management.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years) and spatial (stations within stands) autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively) and Canada (9 versus 20). Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year) showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24) and Canada (20). Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower) and for Canada (1.15% per year lower) relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak). However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data?

Several global quantities are computed from the ERA40 reanalysis for the period 1958-2001 and explored for trends. These are discussed in the context of changes to the global observing system. Temperature, integrated water vapor (IWV), and kinetic energy are considered. The ERA40 global mean temperature in the lower troposphere has a trend of +0.11 K per decade over the period of 1979-2001, which is slightly higher than the MSU measurements, but within the estimated error limit. For the period 1958 2001 the warming trend is 0.14 K per decade but this is likely to be an artifact of changes in the observing system. When this is corrected for, the warming trend is reduced to 0.10 K per decade. The global trend in IWV for the period 1979-2001 is +0.36 mm per decade. This is about twice as high as the trend determined from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation assuming conservation of relative humidity. It is also larger than results from free climate model integrations driven by the same observed sea surface temperature as used in ERA40. It is suggested that the large trend in IWV does not represent a genuine climate trend but an artifact caused by changes in the global observing system such as the use of SSM/I and more satellite soundings in later years. Recent results are in good agreement with GPS measurements. The IWV trend for the period 1958-2001 is still higher but reduced to +0.16 mm per decade when corrected for changes in the observing systems. Total kinetic energy shows an increasing global trend. Results from data assimilation experiments strongly suggest that this trend is also incorrect and mainly caused by the huge changes in the global observing system in 1979. When this is corrected for, no significant change in global kinetic energy from 1958 onward can be found.

Temperature trends derived from Stratospheric Sounding Unit radiances: the effect of increasing CO2 on the weighting function

Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSU) on the NOAA operational satellites have been the main source of near global temperature trend data above the lower stratosphere. They have been used extensively for comparison with model-derived trends. The SSU senses in the 15 micron band of CO2 and hence the weighting function is sensitive to changes in CO2 concentrations. The impact of this change in weighting function has been ignored in all recent trend analyses. We show that the apparent trends in global mean brightness temperature due to the change in weighting function vary from about -0.4 K/decade to 0.4 K/decade depending on the altitude sensed by the different SSU channels. For some channels, this apparent trend is of a similar size to the trend deduced from SSU data but ignoring the change in weighting function. In the mid-stratosphere, the revised trends are now significantly more negative and in better agreement with model-calculated trends.

Seasonal trends in the stable isotopic composition of snow and meltwater runoff in a subarctic catchment at Okstindan, Norway

Seasonal variations in the stable isotopic composition of snow and meltwater were investigated in a sub-arctic, mountainous, but non-glacial, catchment at Okstindan in northern Norway based on analyses of delta(18)O and deltaD. Samples were collected during four field periods (August 1998; April 1999; June 1999 and August 1999) at three sites lying on an altitudinal transect (740-970 m a.s.l.). Snowpack data display an increase in the mean values of delta(18)O (increasing from a mean value of - 13.51 to - 11.49% between April and August), as well as a decrease in variability through the melt period. Comparison with a regional meteoric water line indicates that the slope of the delta(18)O - deltaD line for the snowpacks decreases over the same period, dropping from 7.49 to approximately 6.2. This change points to the role of evaporation in snowpack ablation and is confirmed by the vertical profile of deuterium excess. Snowpack seepage data, although limited, also suggest reduced values of deltaD, as might be associated with local evaporation during meltwater generation. In general, meltwaters were depleted in delta(18)O relative to the source snowpack at the peak of the melt (June), but later in the year (August) the difference between the two was not statistically significant. The diurnal pattern of isotopic composition indicates that the most depleted meltwaters coincide with the peak in temperature and, hence, meltwater production.

Observed trends and teleconnections of the Siberian high: A recently declining center of action

This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of -2.5 hPa decade(-1) has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP. SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

Trends in aerosol optical depth in the Russian Arctic and their links with synoptic climatology

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 degrees N and 80.6 degrees N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1930s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high A OD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or anticyclonic conditions result in high atmospheric turbidity. The frequency of this weather type has declined significantly since the early 1980s in the Kara-Laptev sector, which partly explains the decline in summer AOD values. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.