Global climate change and soil carbon stocks: predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO2 to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO2 levels and accelerated lobal warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre’s coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single-pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 GtC by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 GtC decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.

The Heliospheric Imagers onboard the STEREO mission

Mounted on the sides of two widely separated spacecraft, the two Heliospheric Imager (HI) instruments onboard NASA’s STEREO mission view, for the first time, the space between the Sun and Earth. These instruments are wide-angle visible-light imagers that incorporate sufficient baffling to eliminate scattered light to the extent that the passage of solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) through the heliosphere can be detected. Each HI instrument comprises two cameras, HI-1 and HI-2, which have 20° and 70° fields of view and are off-pointed from the Sun direction by 14.0° and 53.7°, respectively, with their optical axes aligned in the ecliptic plane. This arrangement provides coverage over solar elongation angles from 4.0° to 88.7° at the viewpoints of the two spacecraft, thereby allowing the observation of Earth-directed CMEs along the Sun – Earth line to the vicinity of the Earth and beyond. Given the two separated platforms, this also presents the first opportunity to view the structure and evolution of CMEs in three dimensions. The STEREO spacecraft were launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Base in late October 2006, and the HI instruments have been performing scientific observations since early 2007. The design, development, manufacture, and calibration of these unique instruments are reviewed in this paper. Mission operations, including the initial commissioning phase and the science operations phase, are described. Data processing and analysis procedures are briefly discussed, and ground-test results and in-orbit observations are used to demonstrate that the performance of the instruments meets the original scientific requirements.

Universality of rain event size distributions

We compare rain event size distributions derived from measurements in climatically different regions, which we find to be well approximated by power laws of similar exponents over broad ranges. Differences can be seen in the large-scale cutoffs of the distributions. Event duration distributions suggest that the scale-free aspects are related to the absence of characteristic scales in the meteorological mesoscale.

Grey-box radial basis function modelling

A fundamental principle in data modelling is to incorporate available a priori information regarding the underlying data generating mechanism into the modelling process. We adopt this principle and consider grey-box radial basis function (RBF) modelling capable of incorporating prior knowledge. Specifically, we show how to explicitly incorporate the two types of prior knowledge: (i) the underlying data generating mechanism exhibits known symmetric property, and (ii) the underlying process obeys a set of given boundary value constraints. The class of efficient orthogonal least squares regression algorithms can readily be applied without any modification to construct parsimonious grey-box RBF models with enhanced generalisation capability.

Using zero-norm constraint for sparse probability density function estimation

A new sparse kernel probability density function (pdf) estimator based on zero-norm constraint is constructed using the classical Parzen window (PW) estimate as the target function. The so-called zero-norm of the parameters is used in order to achieve enhanced model sparsity, and it is suggested to minimize an approximate function of the zero-norm. It is shown that under certain condition, the kernel weights of the proposed pdf estimator based on the zero-norm approximation can be updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Farm forestry in Pakistan: an application of Theory of Planned Behaviour by probing into the measurement issues

A research has been conducted over methodological issues concerning the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) by determining an appropriate measurement (direct and indirect) of constructs and selection of a plausible scaling techniques (unipolar and bipolar) of constructs: attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control and intention that are important in explaining farm level tree planting in Pakistan. Unipolar scoring of beliefs showed higher correlation among the constructs of TPB than bipolar scaling technique. Both direct and indirect methods yielded significant results in explaining intention to perform farm forestry except the belief based measure of perceived behavioural control, which were analysed as statistically non-significant. A need to examine more carefully the scoring of perceived behavioural control (PBC) has been expressed

Equine anthelmintics: survey of the patterns of use, beliefs and attitudes among horse owners in the UK

An online survey was conducted to establish horse owners' beliefs, attitudes and practices relating to the use of anthelmintic drugs. Out of a total of 574 respondents, 89 per cent described themselves as ‘leisure riders’, most of whom took part in a variety of activities including eventing, show jumping, dressage, hunter trials, hunting, driving, endurance and showing. Overall, respondents were generally aware and concerned about the issue of anthelmintic resistance. Less than 60 per cent of all respondents were comfortable with their existing anthelmintic programme, and 25 per cent would like to reduce the use of anthelmintics in their horses. Of all the respondents, 47 per cent used livery, and 49 per cent of those reported that the livery imposed a common anthelmintic programme for horses kept on the premises; 45 per cent of these respondents were not entirely happy with the livery yard's programme. Less than 50 per cent of all respondents included ‘veterinary surgeon’ among their sources of advice on worming.

Adapting to new challenges: extension theory and practice for the 21st century

Twenty first century challenges facing agriculture include climate change, threats to food security for a growing population and downward economic pressures on rural livelihoods. Addressing these challenges will require innovation in extension theory, policy and education, at a time when the dominance of the state in the provision of knowledge and information services to farmers and rural entrepreneurs continues to decline. This paper suggests that extension theory is catching up with and helping us to understand innovative extension practice, and therefore provides a platform for improving rural development policies and strategies. Innovation is now less likely to be spoken of as something to be passed on to farmers, than as a continuing process of creativity and adaptation that can be nurtured and sustained. Innovation systems and innovation platforms are concepts that recognise the multiple factors that lead to farmers’ developing, adapting and applying new ideas and the importance of linking all actors in the value chain to ensure producers can access appropriate information and advice for decision making at all stages in the production process. Concepts of social learning, group development and solidarity, social capital, collective action and empowerment all help to explain and therefore to apply more effectively group extension approaches in building confidence and sustaining innovation. A challenge facing educators is to ensure the curricula for aspiring extension professionals in our higher education institutions are regularly reviewed and keep up with current and future developments in theory, policy and practice.