Measurement with Some Theory: a New Approach to Evaluate Business Cycle Models

We propose a method to evaluate cyclical models which does not require knowledge of the DGP and the exact empirical specification of the aggregate decision rules. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks and others to evaluate the model or contrast sub-models. The approach has good size and excellent power properties, even in small samples. We show how to examine the validity of a class of models, sort out the relevance of certain frictions, evaluate the importance of an added feature, and indirectly estimate structural parameters.

Improving social measurements: the experience of the ESS first rounds in Spain

With the two aims of monitoring social change and improving social measurement, the European Social Survey is now closing its third round. This paper shows how the accumulated experience of the two first rounds has been used to validate the questionnaire, better adapt the sampling design to the country characteristics and efficiently commit fieldwork in Spain. For example, the dynamic character of the population nowadays makes necessary to estimated design effects at each round from the data of the previous round. The paper also demonstrates how, starting with a response rate of 52% at first round, a 66% response rate is achieved at the third round thanks to an extensive quality control conducted by the polling agency and the ESS national team and based on a detailed analysis of the non-response cases and the incidences reported by the interviewed in the contact form.

Rules of origin : from analysis to reform

General Introduction This thesis can be divided into two main parts :the first one, corresponding to the first three chapters, studies Rules of Origin (RoOs) in Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs); the second part -the fourth chapter- is concerned with Anti-Dumping (AD) measures. Despite wide-ranging preferential access granted to developing countries by industrial ones under North-South Trade Agreements -whether reciprocal, like the Europe Agreements (EAs) or NAFTA, or not, such as the GSP, AGOA, or EBA-, it has been claimed that the benefits from improved market access keep falling short of the full potential benefits. RoOs are largely regarded as a primary cause of the under-utilization of improved market access of PTAs. RoOs are the rules that determine the eligibility of goods to preferential treatment. Their economic justification is to prevent trade deflection, i.e. to prevent non-preferred exporters from using the tariff preferences. However, they are complex, cost raising and cumbersome, and can be manipulated by organised special interest groups. As a result, RoOs can restrain trade beyond what it is needed to prevent trade deflection and hence restrict market access in a statistically significant and quantitatively large proportion. Part l In order to further our understanding of the effects of RoOs in PTAs, the first chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot, Celine Carrère and Pr. Jaime de Melo, describes and evaluates the RoOs governing EU and US PTAs. It draws on utilization-rate data for Mexican exports to the US in 2001 and on similar data for ACP exports to the EU in 2002. The paper makes two contributions. First, we construct an R-index of restrictiveness of RoOs along the lines first proposed by Estevadeordal (2000) for NAFTA, modifying it and extending it for the EU's single-list (SL). This synthetic R-index is then used to compare Roos under NAFTA and PANEURO. The two main findings of the chapter are as follows. First, it shows, in the case of PANEURO, that the R-index is useful to summarize how countries are differently affected by the same set of RoOs because of their different export baskets to the EU. Second, it is shown that the Rindex is a relatively reliable statistic in the sense that, subject to caveats, after controlling for the extent of tariff preference at the tariff-line level, it accounts for differences in utilization rates at the tariff line level. Finally, together with utilization rates, the index can be used to estimate total compliance costs of RoOs. The second chapter proposes a reform of preferential Roos with the aim of making them more transparent and less discriminatory. Such a reform would make preferential blocs more "cross-compatible" and would therefore facilitate cumulation. It would also contribute to move regionalism toward more openness and hence to make it more compatible with the multilateral trading system. It focuses on NAFTA, one of the most restrictive FTAs (see Estevadeordal and Suominen 2006), and proposes a way forward that is close in spirit to what the EU Commission is considering for the PANEURO system. In a nutshell, the idea is to replace the current array of RoOs by a single instrument- Maximum Foreign Content (MFC). An MFC is a conceptually clear and transparent instrument, like a tariff. Therefore changing all instruments into an MFC would bring improved transparency pretty much like the "tariffication" of NTBs. The methodology for this exercise is as follows: In step 1, I estimate the relationship between utilization rates, tariff preferences and RoOs. In step 2, I retrieve the estimates and invert the relationship to get a simulated MFC that gives, line by line, the same utilization rate as the old array of Roos. In step 3, I calculate the trade-weighted average of the simulated MFC across all lines to get an overall equivalent of the current system and explore the possibility of setting this unique instrument at a uniform rate across lines. This would have two advantages. First, like a uniform tariff, a uniform MFC would make it difficult for lobbies to manipulate the instrument at the margin. This argument is standard in the political-economy literature and has been used time and again in support of reductions in the variance of tariffs (together with standard welfare considerations). Second, uniformity across lines is the only way to eliminate the indirect source of discrimination alluded to earlier. Only if two countries face uniform RoOs and tariff preference will they face uniform incentives irrespective of their initial export structure. The result of this exercise is striking: the average simulated MFC is 25% of good value, a very low (i.e. restrictive) level, confirming Estevadeordal and Suominen's critical assessment of NAFTA's RoOs. Adopting a uniform MFC would imply a relaxation from the benchmark level for sectors like chemicals or textiles & apparel, and a stiffening for wood products, papers and base metals. Overall, however, the changes are not drastic, suggesting perhaps only moderate resistance to change from special interests. The third chapter of the thesis considers whether Europe Agreements of the EU, with the current sets of RoOs, could be the potential model for future EU-centered PTAs. First, I have studied and coded at the six-digit level of the Harmonised System (HS) .both the old RoOs -used before 1997- and the "Single list" Roos -used since 1997. Second, using a Constant Elasticity Transformation function where CEEC exporters smoothly mix sales between the EU and the rest of the world by comparing producer prices on each market, I have estimated the trade effects of the EU RoOs. The estimates suggest that much of the market access conferred by the EAs -outside sensitive sectors- was undone by the cost-raising effects of RoOs. The chapter also contains an analysis of the evolution of the CEECs' trade with the EU from post-communism to accession. Part II The last chapter of the thesis is concerned with anti-dumping, another trade-policy instrument having the effect of reducing market access. In 1995, the Uruguay Round introduced in the Anti-Dumping Agreement (ADA) a mandatory "sunset-review" clause (Article 11.3 ADA) under which anti-dumping measures should be reviewed no later than five years from their imposition and terminated unless there was a serious risk of resumption of injurious dumping. The last chapter, written with Pr. Olivier Cadot and Pr. Jaime de Melo, uses a new database on Anti-Dumping (AD) measures worldwide to assess whether the sunset-review agreement had any effect. The question we address is whether the WTO Agreement succeeded in imposing the discipline of a five-year cycle on AD measures and, ultimately, in curbing their length. Two methods are used; count data analysis and survival analysis. First, using Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions, the count of AD measures' revocations is regressed on (inter alia) the count of "initiations" lagged five years. The analysis yields a coefficient on measures' initiations lagged five years that is larger and more precisely estimated after the agreement than before, suggesting some effect. However the coefficient estimate is nowhere near the value that would give a one-for-one relationship between initiations and revocations after five years. We also find that (i) if the agreement affected EU AD practices, the effect went the wrong way, the five-year cycle being quantitatively weaker after the agreement than before; (ii) the agreement had no visible effect on the United States except for aone-time peak in 2000, suggesting a mopping-up of old cases. Second, the survival analysis of AD measures around the world suggests a shortening of their expected lifetime after the agreement, and this shortening effect (a downward shift in the survival function postagreement) was larger and more significant for measures targeted at WTO members than for those targeted at non-members (for which WTO disciplines do not bind), suggesting that compliance was de jure. A difference-in-differences Cox regression confirms this diagnosis: controlling for the countries imposing the measures, for the investigated countries and for the products' sector, we find a larger increase in the hazard rate of AD measures covered by the Agreement than for other measures.

Measurement of nurses' workload in an oncology outpatient clinic

The growing demand and the degree of patient care in oncological outpatient services, as well as the complexity of treatment have had an impact on the workload of nurses. This study aimed at measuring the workload and productivity of nurses in an oncological outpatient service. An observational study using a work sampling technique was conducted and included seven nurses working in an oncological outpatient service in the south-eastern region of Brazil. A total of 1,487 intervention or activity samples were obtained. Nurses used 43.2% of their time on indirect care, 33.2% on direct care, 11.6% on associated activities, and 12% on personal activities. Their mean productivity was 88.0%. The findings showed that nurses in this service spend most of their time in indirect care activities. Moreover, the productivity index in this study was above that recommended in the literature.

Activity assays and immunoassays for plasma Renin and prorenin: information provided and precautions necessary for accurate measurement.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of plasma renin is important for the clinical assessment of hypertensive patients. The most common methods for measuring plasma renin are the plasma renin activity (PRA) assay and the renin immunoassay. The clinical application of renin inhibitor therapy has thrown into focus the differences in information provided by activity assays and immunoassays for renin and prorenin measurement and has drawn attention to the need for precautions to ensure their accurate measurement. CONTENT: Renin activity assays and immunoassays provide related but different information. Whereas activity assays measure only active renin, immunoassays measure both active and inhibited renin. Particular care must be taken in the collection and processing of blood samples and in the performance of these assays to avoid errors in renin measurement. Both activity assays and immunoassays are susceptible to renin overestimation due to prorenin activation. In addition, activity assays performed with peptidase inhibitors may overestimate the degree of inhibition of PRA by renin inhibitor therapy. Moreover, immunoassays may overestimate the reactive increase in plasma renin concentration in response to renin inhibitor therapy, owing to the inhibitor promoting conversion of prorenin to an open conformation that is recognized by renin immunoassays. CONCLUSIONS: The successful application of renin assays to patient care requires that the clinician and the clinical chemist understand the information provided by these assays and of the precautions necessary to ensure their accuracy.

The InterPro protein families database: the classification resource after 15 years.

The InterPro database (http://www.ebi.ac.uk/interpro/) is a freely available resource that can be used to classify sequences into protein families and to predict the presence of important domains and sites. Central to the InterPro database are predictive models, known as signatures, from a range of different protein family databases that have different biological focuses and use different methodological approaches to classify protein families and domains. InterPro integrates these signatures, capitalizing on the respective strengths of the individual databases, to produce a powerful protein classification resource. Here, we report on the status of InterPro as it enters its 15th year of operation, and give an overview of new developments with the database and its associated Web interfaces and software. In particular, the new domain architecture search tool is described and the process of mapping of Gene Ontology terms to InterPro is outlined. We also discuss the challenges faced by the resource given the explosive growth in sequence data in recent years. InterPro (version 48.0) contains 36 766 member database signatures integrated into 26 238 InterPro entries, an increase of over 3993 entries (5081 signatures), since 2012.

Influence of reconstruction parameters during filtered backprojection and ordered-subset expectation maximization in the measurement of the left-ventricular volumes and function during gated SPECT.

A crucial method for investigating patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is the calculation of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). It is, consequently, imperative to precisely estimate the value of LVEF--a process that can be done with myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. Therefore, the present study aimed to establish and compare the estimation performance of the quantitative parameters of the reconstruction methods filtered backprojection (FBP) and ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM). METHODS: A beating-heart phantom with known values of end-diastolic volume, end-systolic volume, and LVEF was used. Quantitative gated SPECT/quantitative perfusion SPECT software was used to obtain these quantitative parameters in a semiautomatic mode. The Butterworth filter was used in FBP, with the cutoff frequencies between 0.2 and 0.8 cycles per pixel combined with the orders of 5, 10, 15, and 20. Sixty-three reconstructions were performed using 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, and 16 OSEM subsets, combined with several iterations: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16, 32, and 64. RESULTS: With FBP, the values of end-diastolic, end-systolic, and the stroke volumes rise as the cutoff frequency increases, whereas the value of LVEF diminishes. This same pattern is verified with the OSEM reconstruction. However, with OSEM there is a more precise estimation of the quantitative parameters, especially with the combinations 2 iterations × 10 subsets and 2 iterations × 12 subsets. CONCLUSION: The OSEM reconstruction presents better estimations of the quantitative parameters than does FBP. This study recommends the use of 2 iterations with 10 or 12 subsets for OSEM and a cutoff frequency of 0.5 cycles per pixel with the orders 5, 10, or 15 for FBP as the best estimations for the left ventricular volumes and ejection fraction quantification in myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

Mesurer l'amplitude articulaire du genou: goniométre universel ou smartphone [Measurement of the knee range of motion: standard goniometer or smartphone?].

Universal standard goniometer is an essential tool to measure articulations' range of motion (ROM). In this time of technological advances and increasing use of smartphones, new measurement's tools appear as specific smartphone applications. This article compares the iOS application "Knee Goniometer" with universal standard goniometer to assess knee ROM. To our knowledge, this is the first study that uses a goniometer application in a clinical context. The purpose of this study is to determine if this application could be used in clinical practice.

Clinical reasoning in undergraduate nursing education: a scoping review

Abstract OBJECTIVE This study aimed at analyzing the current state of knowledge on clinical reasoning in undergraduate nursing education. METHODS A systematic scoping review through a search strategy applied to the MEDLINE database, and an analysis of the material recovered by extracting data done by two independent reviewers. The extracted data were analyzed and synthesized in a narrative manner. RESULTS From the 1380 citations retrieved in the search, 23 were kept for review and their contents were summarized into five categories: 1) the experience of developing critical thinking/clinical reasoning/decision-making process; 2) teaching strategies related to the development of critical thinking/clinical reasoning/decision-making process; 3) measurement of variables related to the critical thinking/clinical reasoning/decision-making process; 4) relationship of variables involved in the critical thinking/clinical reasoning/decision-making process; and 5) theoretical development models of critical thinking/clinical reasoning/decision-making process for students. CONCLUSION The biggest challenge for developing knowledge on teaching clinical reasoning seems to be finding consistency between theoretical perspectives on the development of clinical reasoning and methodologies, methods, and procedures in research initiatives in this field.

Speech prognosis and need of pharyngeal flap for non syndromic vs syndromic Pierre Robin Sequence

BACKGROUND: The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate speech outcome and need of a pharyngeal flap in children born with nonsyndromic Pierre Robin Sequence (nsPRS) vs syndromic Pierre Robin Sequence (sPRS). METHODS: Pierre Robin Sequence was diagnosed when the triad microretrognathia, glossoptosis, and cleft palate were present. Children were classified at birth in 3 categories depending on respiratory and feeding problems. The Borel-Maisonny classification was used to score the velopharyngeal insufficiency. RESULTS: The study was based on 38 children followed from 1985 to 2006. For the 25 nsPRS, 9 (36%) pharyngeal flaps were performed with improvements of the phonatory score in the 3 categories. For the 13 sPRS, 3 (23%) pharyngeal flaps were performed with an improvement of the phonatory scores in the 3 children. There was no statistical difference between the nsPRS and sPRS groups (P = .3) even if we compared the children in the 3 categories (P = .2). CONCLUSIONS: Children born with nsPRS did not have a better prognosis of speech outcome than children born with sPRS. Respiratory and feeding problems at birth did not seem to be correlated with speech outcome. This is important when informing parents on the prognosis of long-term therapy

Resolving inconsistencies in utility measurement under risk: Tests of generalizations of expected utility

This paper explores biases in the elicitation of utilities under risk and the contribution that generalizations of expected utility can make to the resolution of these biases. We used five methods to measure utilities under risk and found clear violations of expected utility. Of the theories studies, prospect theory was most consistent with our data. The main improvement of prospect theory over expected utility was in comparisons between a riskless and a risky prospect(riskless-risk methods). We observed no improvement over expected utility in comparisons between two risky prospects (risk-risk methods). An explanation why we found no improvement of prospect theory over expected utility in risk-risk methods may be that there was less overweighting of small probabilities in our study than has commonly been observed.

A new approach to accurate measurement of uniaxial joint angles based on a combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes.

A new method of measuring joint angle using a combination of accelerometers and gyroscopes is presented. The method proposes a minimal sensor configuration with one sensor module mounted on each segment. The model is based on estimating the acceleration of the joint center of rotation by placing a pair of virtual sensors on the adjacent segments at the center of rotation. In the proposed technique, joint angles are found without the need for integration, so absolute angles can be obtained which are free from any source of drift. The model considers anatomical aspects and is personalized for each subject prior to each measurement. The method was validated by measuring knee flexion-extension angles of eight subjects, walking at three different speeds, and comparing the results with a reference motion measurement system. The results are very close to those of the reference system presenting very small errors (rms = 1.3, mean = 0.2, SD = 1.1 deg) and excellent correlation coefficients (0.997). The algorithm is able to provide joint angles in real-time, and ready for use in gait analysis. Technically, the system is portable, easily mountable, and can be used for long term monitoring without hindrance to natural activities.