Structural Design under Seismic Risk Using Multiple Performance Objectives

Structural design is a decision-making process in which a wide spectrum of requirements, expectations, and concerns needs to be properly addressed. Engineering design criteria are considered together with societal and client preferences, and most of these design objectives are affected by the uncertainties surrounding a design. Therefore, realistic design frameworks must be able to handle multiple performance objectives and incorporate uncertainties from numerous sources into the process.

In this study, a multi-criteria based design framework for structural design under seismic risk is explored. The emphasis is on reliability-based performance objectives and their interaction with economic objectives. The framework has analysis, evaluation, and revision stages. In the probabilistic response analysis, seismic loading uncertainties as well as modeling uncertainties are incorporated. For evaluation, two approaches are suggested: one based on preference aggregation and the other based on socio-economics. Both implementations of the general framework are illustrated with simple but informative design examples to explore the basic features of the framework.

The first approach uses concepts similar to those found in multi-criteria decision theory, and directly combines reliability-based objectives with others. This approach is implemented in a single-stage design procedure. In the socio-economics based approach, a two-stage design procedure is recommended in which societal preferences are treated through reliability-based engineering performance measures, but emphasis is also given to economic objectives because these are especially important to the structural designer's client. A rational net asset value formulation including losses from uncertain future earthquakes is used to assess the economic performance of a design. A recently developed assembly-based vulnerability analysis is incorporated into the loss estimation.

The presented performance-based design framework allows investigation of various design issues and their impact on a structural design. It is a flexible one that readily allows incorporation of new methods and concepts in seismic hazard specification, structural analysis, and loss estimation.

Mechanisms involved in Escherichia coli and Serratia marcescens removal during activated sludge wastewater treatment

Wastewater treatment reduces environmental contamination by removing gross solids and mitigating the effects of pollution. Treatment also reduces the number of indicator organisms and pathogens. In this work, the fates of two coliform bacteria, Escherichia coli and Serratia marcescens, were analyzed in an activated sludge process to determine the main mechanisms involved in the reduction of pathogenic microorganisms during wastewater treatment. These bacteria, modified to express green fluorescent protein, were inoculated in an activated sludge unit and in batch systems containing wastewater. The results suggested that, among the different biological factors implied in bacterial removal, bacterivorous protozoa play a key role. Moreover, a representative number of bacteria persisted in the system as free-living or embedded cells, but their distribution into liquid or solid fractions varied depending on the bacterium tested, questioning the real value of bacterial indicators for the control of wastewater treatment process. Additionally, viable but nonculturable cells constituted an important part of the bacterial population adhered to solid fractions, what can be derived from the competition relationships with native bacteria, present in high densities in this environment. These facts, taken together, emphasize the need for reliable quantitative and qualitative analysis tools for the evaluation of pathogenic microbial composition in sludge, which could represent an undefined risk to public health and ecosystem functions when considering its recycling.

Investigations on wooden floating materials: the loss of buoyancy under continuous immersion in water and the rate of its redemption by drying

A wooden fishing float under immersion in water for long periods is liable to absorb water, the quantity of water absorbed possibly being dependent upon the physical factors like the specific gravity and the inherent property of the material, the time of soaking and the pressure acting on it. Consequently a wooden float is likely to become heavy and loss its original buoyancy. However, when the float is removed from water and dried, the lost buoyancy is regained on complete drying. The present paper is an attempt to elucidate these two important characteristics of some of the chief wooden floating materials used on the West Coast of India.

地震P-S波时差耦合作用的斜坡崩滑效应研究

China locates between the circum-Pacific and the Mediterranean-Himalayan seismic belt. The seismic activities in our country are very frequent and so are the collapses and slides of slope triggered by earthquakes. Many collapses and slides of slope take place mainly in the west of China with many earthquakes and mountains, especially in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces. When a strong earthquake happening, the damage especially in mountains area caused by geological hazards it triggered such as rock collapses, landslides and debris flows is heavier than that it caused directly. A conclusion which the number of lives lost caused by geological hazards triggered by a strong earthquake in mountains area often accounts for a half even more of the total one induced by the strong earthquake can be made by consulting the statistical loss of several representative earthquakes. As a result, geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes attract wide attention for their great costs. Based on field geological investigation, engineering geological exploration and material data analysis, chief conclusions have been drawn after systematic research on formation mechanism, key inducing factors, dynamic characteristics of geological hazards such as collapses and slides of slope triggered by strong earthquakes by means of engineering geomechanics comprehensive analysis, finite difference numerical simulation test, in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock, discrete element numerical simulation. Based on research on a great number of collapses and landslides triggered by Wenchuan and Xiaonanhai Earthquake, two-set methods, i.e. the method for original topography recovering based on factors such as lithology and elevation comparing and the method for reconstructing collapsing and sliding process of slope based on characteristics of seism tectonic zone, structural fissure, diameter spatial distribution of slope debris mass, propagation direction and mechanical property of seismic wave, have been gotten. What is more, types, formation mechanism and dynamic characteristics of collapses and slides of slope induced by strong earthquakes are discussed comprehensively. Firstly, collapsed and slided accumulative mass is in a state of heavily even more broken. Secondly, dynamic process of slope collapsing and sliding consists of almost four stages, i.e. broken, thrown, crushed and river blocked. Thirdly, classified according to failure forms, there are usually four types which are made up of collapsing, land sliding, land sliding-debris flowing and vibrating liquefaction. Finally, as for key inducing factors in slope collapsing and sliding, they often include characteristics of seism tectonic belts, structure and construction of rock mass, terrain and physiognomy, weathering degree of rock mass and mechanical functions of seismic waves. Based on microscopic study on initial fracturing of slope caused by seismic effect, combined with two change trends which include ratio of vertical vs. horizontal peak ground acceleration corresponding to epicentral distance and enlarging effect of peak ground acceleration along slope, key inducing factor of initial slope fracturing in various area with different epicentral distance is obtained. In near-field area, i.e. epicentral distance being less than 30 km, tensile strength of rock mass is a key intrinsic factor inducing initial fracturing of slope undergoing seismic effect whereas shear strength of rock mass is the one when epicentral distance is more than 30 km. In the latter circumstance, research by means of finite difference numerical simulation test and in-lab dynamic triaxial shear test of rock shows that initial fracture begins always in the place of slope shoulder. The fact that fracture strain and shear strength which are proportional to buried depth of rock mass in the place of slope shoulder are less than other place and peak ground acceleration is enlarged in the place causes prior failure at slope shoulder. Key extrinsic factors inducing dynamic fracture of slope at different distances to epicenter have been obtained through discrete element numerical simulation on the total process of collapsing and sliding of slope triggered by Wenchuan Earthquake. Research shows that combined action of P and S seismic waves is the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance less than 64 km to initial epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. What is more, vertical tensile action of P seismic wave plays a leading role near epicenter, whereas vertical shear action of S seismic wave plays a leading role gradually with epicentral distance increasing in this range. On the other hand, single action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor inducing collapsing and sliding of slope at a distance between 64 km and 216 km to initial epicenter. Horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave becomes the key factor gradually from combined action between vertical and horizontal tensile action of P seismic wave with epicentral distance increasing in this distance range. In addition, initial failure triggered by strong earthquakes begins almost in the place of slope shoulder. However, initial failure beginning from toe of slope relates probably with gradient and rock occurrence. Finally, starting time of initial failure in slope increases usually with epicentral distance. It is perhaps that the starting time increasing is a result of attenuating of seismic wave from epicenter along earthquake-triggering structure. It is of great theoretical and practical significance for us to construct towns and infrastructure in fragile geological environment along seism tectonic belts and conduct risk management on earthquake-triggered geological hazards by referring to above conclusions.

The effects of ageing and exercise on skeletal muscle structure and function

Musculoskeletal ageing is associated with profound morphological and functional changes that increase fall risk and disease incidence and is characterised by age-related reductions in motor unit number and atrophy of muscle fibres, particularly type II fibres. Decrements in functional strength and power are relatively modest until the 6th decade, after which the rate of loss exponentially accelerates, particularly beyond the 8th decade of life. Physical activity is a therapeutic modality that can significantly attenuate age-related decline. The underlying signature of ageing, as manifested by perturbed redox homeostasis, leads to a blunting of acute and chronic redox regulated exercise adaptations. Impaired redox regulated exercise adaptations are mechanistically related to altered exercise-induced reactive oxygen and nitrogen species generation and a resultant failure to properly activate redox regulated signaling cascades. Despite the aforementioned specific impairment in redox signaling, exercise induces a plethora of beneficial effects, irrespective of age. There is, therefore, strong evidence for promoting regular physical exercise, especially progressive resistance training as a lifelong habitual practice.

Selénio e a importância para o organismo humano

O selénio (Se) é um micronutriente essencial para o crescimento, desenvolvimento e normal metabolismo dos animais, incluindo o ser humano. É parte integrante de um conjunto de proteínas, as selenoproteínas, com ação antioxidante (protegendo as membranas celulares contra danos dos radicais livres), envolvidas no metabolismo das hormonas da tiróide, na regulação do crescimento e viabilidade celular, nas funções do sistema imune e na reprodução. É introduzido na dieta alimentar (principalmente nas formas de selenometionina e selenocisteína) através das plantas, e de produtos que delas derivam, que assimilam os compostos de selénio presentes no solo. Uma vez que a quantidade de selénio existente nos solos é muito variável, o teor nos alimentos vai depender da sua origem geográfica e, por consequência, a ingestão de selénio varia entre regiões e países. Baixos níveis de selénio estão associados a um declínio na função imune e problemas cognitivos. A deficiência de Se pode também ocasionar problemas musculares e cardiomiopatia. Concentrações reduzidas foram observadas em indíviduos com crises epiléticas e também em casos de pré-eclampsia. A deficiência de selénio pode também desenvolver-se durante a nutrição parenteral. Atualmente, a Dose Diária Recomendada (DDR) é de 55 μg/dia para homens e mulheres adultos e saudáveis. No entanto, existem evidências clínicas de que a ingestão em doses superiores (200-300 μg/dia) pode ter um papel benéfico na prevenção de alguns tipos de cancro e doenças cardiovasculares, na melhoria da resposta imunológica, como neuroprotetor e na fertilidade. O Se desempenha um papel importante na fertilidade masculina, sendo necessário na biossíntese da testosterona e na formação e normal desenvolvimento dos espermatozóides. Em mulheres grávidas o Se, ajuda a prevenir complicações antes e durante o parto e promove o normal desenvolvimento do feto. Como antioxidante o selénio vai combater os danos provocados pelos radicais livres, impedindo que estes exerçam o seu papel prejudicial no organismo. Sendo o sistema imunológico muito suscetível aos danos provocados pelo stress oxidativo, o Se vai exercer efeitos benéficos combatendo os danos por ele causados. Relativamente à capacidade viral, não é possível saber com exatidão qual a quantidade de Se necessária ou concentração ideal no plasma para evitar a ocorrência e desenvolvimento de infeções virais. No entanto, sabe-se que tem um efeito benéfico em pacientes HIV positivos e em indivíduos infetados com o vírus da hepatite (B ou C) contra a progressão para o neoplasia de fígado. Em teoria, a nível cardiovascular, este elemento pode exercer um efeito protetor, embora alguns estudos epidemiológicos não tenham mostrado uma associação clara entre o risco cardiovascular e os níveis selénio. A nível cerebral o Se vai atuar como neuroprotetor, prevenindo o aparecimento de patologias como demência e doença de Alzheimer. Apesar destes indicadores, a maioria dos países europeus, incluindo Portugal, regista uma deficiente ingestão de selénio por parte da população. A suplementação poderá constituir uma opção para garantir os níveis nutricionais recomendados e/ou ser utilizada com o objetivo de prevenir algumas doenças e o envelhecimento. No entanto o selénio pode também ser tóxico se ingerido em excesso, estando a dose máxima admissível fixada em 400 μg/dia. A intoxicação por selénio é chamada selenose e os sintomas comuns incluem: hálito a alho, distúrbios gastrointestinais, perda de cabelo, descamação das unhas, danos neurológicos e fadiga. Assim, atualmente acredita-se que enquanto indivíduos com baixo nível de Se podem obter benefícios da suplementação, esta pode ser prejudicial aqueles com valores normais ou elevados.

Anticipatory vigilance: A classic grounded theory of risk reduction and management in the perioperative setting

This research aimed to investigate the main concern facing nurses in minimising risk within the perioperative setting and to generate an explanatory substantive theory of how they resolve this through anticipatory vigilance. In the context of the perioperative setting, nurses encounter challenges in minimising risks for their patients on a continuous basis. Current explanations of minimising risk in the perioperative setting offers insights into how perioperative nurses undertake their work. Currently research in minimising risk is broadly related to dealing with errors as opposed to preventing them. To date, little is known about how perioperative nurses practice and maintain safety. This study was guided by the principles of classic grounded theory as described by Glaser (1978, 1998, 2001). Data was collected through individual unstructured interviews with thirty seven perioperative nurses (with varying lengths of experiences of working in the area) and thirty three hours of non-participant observation within eight different perioperative settings in the Republic of Ireland. Data was simultaneously collected and analysed. The theory of anticipatory vigilance emerged as the pattern of behaviour through which nurse’s deal with their main concern of minimising risk in a high risk setting. Anticipatory vigilance is enacted through orchestrating, routinising and momentary adapting within a spirit of trusting relations within the substantive area of the perioperative setting. This theory of offers an explanation on how nurses resolve their main concern of minimising risk within the perioperative setting. The theory of anticipatory vigilance will be useful to nurses in providing a comprehensive framework of explanation and understanding on how nurses deal with minimising risk in the perioperative setting. The theory links perioperative nursing, risk and vigilance together. Clinical improvements through understanding and awareness of the theory of anticipatory vigilance will result in an improved quality environment, leading to safe patient outcomes.

Risk management and the potential of cattle insurance in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

This study explores the role of livestock insurance to complement existing risk management strategies adopted by smallholder farmers. Using survey data, first, it provides insights into farmers’ risk perception of livestock farming, in terms of likelihood and severity of risk, attitude to risk and their determinants. Second, it examines farmers’ risk management strategies and their determinants. Third, it investigates farmers’ potential engagement with a hypothetical cattle insurance decision and their intensity of participation. Factor analysis is used to analyse risk sources and risk management, multiple regressions are used to identify the determinants; a Heckman model was used to investigate cattle insurance participation and intensity of participation. The findings show different groups of farmers display different risk attitude in their decision-making related to livestock farming. Production risk (especially livestock diseases) was perceived as the most likely and severe source of risk. Disease control was perceived as the best strategy to manage risk overall. Disease control and feed management were important strategies to mitigate the production risks. Disease control and participation on safety net program were found to be important to counter households’ financial risks. With regard to the hypothetical cattle insurance scheme, 94.38% of households were interested to participate in cattle insurance. Of those households that accepted cattle insurance, 77.38% of the households were willing to pay the benchmark annual premium of 4% of the animal value while for the remaining households this was not affordable. The average number of cattle that farmers were willing to insure was 2.71 at this benchmark. Results revealed that income (log income) and education levels influenced positively and significantly farmers’ participation in cattle insurance and the number of cattle to insure. The findings prompt policy makers to consider livestock insurance as a complement to existing risk management strategies to reduce poverty in the long-run.

Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Elevated C-peptide and insulin predict increased risk of colorectal adenomas in normal mucosa.

BACKGROUND: Lower concentrations of the insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1) and elevated concentrations of insulin or C-peptide have been associated with an increase in colorectal cancer risk (CRC). However few studies have evaluated IGFBP-1 and C-peptide in relation to adenomatous polyps, the only known precursor for CRC. METHODS: Between November 2001 and December 2002, we examined associations between circulating concentrations of insulin, C-peptide, IGFBP-1 and apoptosis among 190 individuals with one or more adenomatous polyps and 488 with no adenomatous polyps using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Individuals with the highest concentrations of C-peptide were more likely to have adenomas (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-4.0) than those with the lowest concentrations; associations that appeared to be stronger in men (OR = 4.4, 95% CI 1.7-10.9) than women. Individuals with high insulin concentrations also had a higher risk of adenomas (OR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.7-7.4), whereas higher levels of IGFBP-1 were associated with a reduced risk of adenomas in men only (OR = 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.7). Overweight and obese individuals with higher C-peptide levels (>1(st) Q) were at increased risk for lower apoptosis index (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 0.9-7.1), an association that remained strong in overweight and obese men (OR = 6.3, 95% CI 1.0-36.7). Higher levels of IGFBP-1 in overweight and obese individuals were associated with a reduced risk of low apoptosis (OR = 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: Associations between these peptides and the apoptosis index in overweight and obese individuals, suggest that the mechanism by which C-peptide could induce adenomas may include its anti-apoptotic properties. This study suggests that hyperinsulinemia and IGF hormones predict adenoma risk, and that outcomes associated with colorectal carcinogenesis maybe modified by gender.

Polymorphisms at the microRNA binding-site of the stem cell marker gene CD133 modify susceptibility to and survival of gastric cancer.

CD133 is one of the most common stem cell markers, and functional single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of CD133 may modulate its gene functions and thus cancer risk and patient survival. We hypothesized that potentially functional CD133 SNPs are associated with gastric cancer (GC) risk and survival. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a case-control study of 371 GC patients and 313 cancer-free controls frequency-matched by age, sex, and ethnicity. We genotyped four selected, potentially functional CD133 SNPs (rs2240688A>C, rs7686732C>G, rs10022537T>A, and rs3130C>T) and used logistic regression analysis for associations of these SNPs with GC risk and Cox hazards regression analysis for survival. We found that compared with the miRNA binding site rs2240688 AA genotype, AC + CC genotypes were associated with significantly increased GC risk (adjusted OR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.09-2.13); for another miRNA binding site rs3130C>T SNP, the TT genotype was associated with significantly reduced GC risk (adjusted OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.48-0.97), compared with CC + CT genotypes. In all patients, the risk rs3130 TT variant genotype was significantly associated with overall survival (OS) (adjusted P(trend) = 0.016 and 0.007 under additive and recessive models, respectively). These findings suggest that these two CD133 miRNA binding site variants, rs2240688 and rs3130, may be potential biomarkers for genetic susceptibility to GC and possible predictors for survival in GC patients but require further validation by larger studies.

Integrated pathway and epistasis analysis reveals interactive effect of genetic variants at TERF1 and AFAP1L2 loci on melanoma risk.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have characterized 13 loci associated with melanoma, which only account for a small part of melanoma risk. To identify new genes with too small an effect to be detected individually but which collectively influence melanoma risk and/or show interactive effects, we used a two-step analysis strategy including pathway analysis of genome-wide SNP data, in a first step, and epistasis analysis within significant pathways, in a second step. Pathway analysis, using the gene-set enrichment analysis (GSEA) approach and the gene ontology (GO) database, was applied to the outcomes of MELARISK (3,976 subjects) and MDACC (2,827 subjects) GWASs. Cross-gene SNP-SNP interaction analysis within melanoma-associated GOs was performed using the INTERSNP software. Five GO categories were significantly enriched in genes associated with melanoma (false discovery rate ≤ 5% in both studies): response to light stimulus, regulation of mitotic cell cycle, induction of programmed cell death, cytokine activity and oxidative phosphorylation. Epistasis analysis, within each of the five significant GOs, showed significant evidence for interaction for one SNP pair at TERF1 and AFAP1L2 loci (pmeta-int  = 2.0 × 10(-7) , which met both the pathway and overall multiple-testing corrected thresholds that are equal to 9.8 × 10(-7) and 2.0 × 10(-7) , respectively) and suggestive evidence for another pair involving correlated SNPs at the same loci (pmeta-int  = 3.6 × 10(-6) ). This interaction has important biological relevance given the key role of TERF1 in telomere biology and the reported physical interaction between TERF1 and AFAP1L2 proteins. This finding brings a novel piece of evidence for the emerging role of telomere dysfunction into melanoma development.

Patient beliefs and behaviors about genomic risk for type 2 diabetes: Implications for prevention

Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC 2015.Type 2 diabetes is a major health burden in the United States, and population trends suggest this burden will increase. High interest in, and increased availability of, testing for genetic risk of type 2 diabetes presents a new opportunity for reducing type 2 diabetes risk for many patients; however, to date, there is little evidence that genetic testing positively affects type 2 diabetes prevention. Genetic information may not fit patients illness representations, which may reduce the chances of risk-reducing behavior changes. The present study aimed to examine illness representations in a clinical sample who are at risk for type 2 diabetes and interested in genetic testing. The authors used the Common Sense Model to analyze survey responses of 409 patients with type 2 diabetes risk factors. Patients were interested in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes risk and believed in its importance. Most patients believed that genetic factors are important to developing type 2 diabetes (67%), that diet and exercise are effective in preventing type 2 diabetes (95%), and that lifestyle changes are more effective than drugs (86%). Belief in genetic causality was not related to poorer self-reported health behaviors. These results suggest that patients interest in genetic testing for type 2 diabetes might produce a teachable moment that clinicians can use to counsel behavior change.

Clinical utility of a Web-enabled risk-assessment and clinical decision support program.

PURPOSE: Risk-stratified guidelines can improve quality of care and cost-effectiveness, but their uptake in primary care has been limited. MeTree, a Web-based, patient-facing risk-assessment and clinical decision support tool, is designed to facilitate uptake of risk-stratified guidelines. METHODS: A hybrid implementation-effectiveness trial of three clinics (two intervention, one control). PARTICIPANTS: consentable nonadopted adults with upcoming appointments. PRIMARY OUTCOME: agreement between patient risk level and risk management for those meeting evidence-based criteria for increased-risk risk-management strategies (increased risk) and those who do not (average risk) before MeTree and after. MEASURES: chart abstraction was used to identify risk management related to colon, breast, and ovarian cancer, hereditary cancer, and thrombosis. RESULTS: Participants = 488, female = 284 (58.2%), white = 411 (85.7%), mean age = 58.7 (SD = 12.3). Agreement between risk management and risk level for all conditions for each participant, except for colon cancer, which was limited to those <50 years of age, was (i) 1.1% (N = 2/174) for the increased-risk group before MeTree and 16.1% (N = 28/174) after and (ii) 99.2% (N = 2,125/2,142) for the average-risk group before MeTree and 99.5% (N = 2,131/2,142) after. Of those receiving increased-risk risk-management strategies at baseline, 10.5% (N = 2/19) met criteria for increased risk. After MeTree, 80.7% (N = 46/57) met criteria. CONCLUSION: MeTree integration into primary care can improve uptake of risk-stratified guidelines and potentially reduce "overuse" and "underuse" of increased-risk services.Genet Med 18 10, 1020-1028.

Maternal appraisals of risk, coping and prenatal attachment among women hospitalised with pregnancy complications

One goal of pregnancy is the development of maternal emotional attachment to
the unborn baby, and this attachment has been shown to be related to later
relationships and development. There are many factors which may hinder the
development of prenatal attachment, including the presence of complications,
hospitalisation, and anxiety. However, women’s appraisals of risk may not be
congruent with medical assessments of risk. The current study sought to model
the relationships between risk (maternal perceptions and medical ratings), coping, psychological well-being, and maternal–foetal attachment among 87 women hospitalised for pregnancy-related complications. Analysis indicated that positive appraisal as a coping strategy mediates the relationship between maternal appraisals of risk and maternal–foetal attachment, and that medical ratings of risk were not predictive of maternal–foetal attachment. Awareness of the potential incongruence between patients’ and health professionals’ perceptions of risk is important within the clinical environment. The potential benefits of promoting positive appraisal in high-risk pregnancy merit further research.