Addressing the net balances problem as a prerequisite for EU budget reform: a proposal

Conflict among member states regarding the distribution of net financial burdens has been allowed to contaminate the entire design of the EU budget with very negative consequences in terms of equity, efficiency and transparency. To get around this problem and pave the way for a substantive budget reform, we propose to decouple distributional negotiations from the rest of the budget process by linking member state net balances in a rigid manner to relative prosperity. This would be achieved through the introduction of a system of compensating horizontal transfers that would take to its logical conclusion the Commission's proposal for a generalized compensation mechanism. We discuss the impact of the proposed scheme on member states? incentives and illustrate its financial implications using revenue and expenditure projections for 2013 that are based on the current Financial Perspectives and Own Resources Decision.

IB1/JIP-1 controls JNK activation and increased during prostatic LNCaP cells neuroendocrine differentiation.

The scaffold protein Islet-Brain1/c-Jun amino-terminal kinase Interacting Protein-1 (IB1/JIP-1) is a modulator of the c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK) activity, which has been implicated in pleiotrophic cellular functions including cell differentiation, division, and death. In this study, we described the presence of IB1/JIP-1 in epithelium of the rat prostate as well as in the human prostatic LNCaP cells. We investigated the functional role of IB1/JIP-1 in LNCaP cells exposed to the proapoptotic agent N-(4-hydroxyphenyl)retinamide (4-HPR) which induced a reduction of IB1/JIP-1 content and a concomittant increase in JNK activity. Conversely, IB1/JIP-1 overexpression using a viral gene transfer prevented the JNK activation and the 4-HPR-induced apoptosis was blunted. In prostatic adenocarcinoma cells, the neuroendocrine (NE) phenotype acquisition is associated with tumor progression and androgen independence. During NE transdifferentiation of LNCaP cells, IB1/JIP-1 levels were increased. This regulated expression of IB1/JIP-1 is secondary to a loss of the neuronal transcriptional repressor neuron restrictive silencing factor (NRSF/REST) function which is known to repress IB1/JIP-1. Together, these results indicated that IB1/JIP-1 participates to the neuronal phenotype of the human LNCaP cells and is a regulator of JNK signaling pathway.

The Euler characteristic of a category

The Euler characteristic of a finite category is defined and shown to be compatible with Euler characteristics of other types of object, including orbifolds. A formula is proved for the cardinality of a colimit of sets, generalizing the classical inclusion-exclusion formula. Both rest on a generalization of Rota's Möbius inversion from posets to categories.

Ambulatory blood pressure measurement and antihypertensive therapy.

The traditional basis for assessing the effect of antihypertensive therapy is the blood pressure reading taken by a physician. However, several recent trials have been designed to evaluate the blood pressure lowering effect of various therapeutic agents during the patients' normal daytime activities, using a portable, semi-automatic blood pressure recorder. The results have shown that in a given patient, blood pressure measured at the physician's office often differs greatly from that prevailing during the rest of the day. This is true both in treated and untreated hypertensive patients. The difference between office and ambulatory recorded pressures cannot be predicted from blood pressure levels measured by the physician. Therefore, a prospective study was carried out in patients with diastolic blood pressures that were uncontrolled at the physician's office despite antihypertensive therapy. The purpose was to evaluate the response of recorded ambulatory blood pressure to treatment adjustments aimed at reducing office blood pressure below a pre-set target level. Only patients with high ambulatory blood pressures at the outset appeared to benefit from further changes in therapy. Thus, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring can be used to identify those patients who remain hypertensive only when facing the physician, despite antihypertensive therapy. Ambulatory monitoring could thus help to evaluate the efficacy of antihypertensive therapy and allow individual treatment.

Fatigue et réduction de la performance motrice chez le sportif, syndrome de surentraînement [Fatigue and reduction in motor performance in sportspeople or overtraining syndrome].

The main goal of training activities is to improve motor performance. After strenuous workouts, it is physiological to experience fatigue, which relieves within two weeks, and then induce an improvement in motor capacities. An overtraining syndrome is diagnosed when fatigue is postponed beyond two weeks, and affects mainly endurance athletes. It is a condition of chronic fatigue, underperformance and an increased vulnerability to infection leading to recurrent infections. The whole observed spectrum of symptoms is physiological, psychological, endocrinogical and immunological. All play a role in the failure to recover. Monitoring of athletes activities helps to prevent the syndrome with days with no sports. Rest, patience and empathy are the only ways of treatment options.

Devolution & Entrenched Household Poverty: Is Scotland less mobile?

The Scottish National Party led Scottish Government has identified household poverty as a key focus for its anti-poverty strategy. The government’s ‘Solidarity Target’ seeks to both increase wealth and increase the share of total income gained by these three deciles. The ability to demonstrate the advantages of policy divergence within Scotland, relative to the other parts of the United Kingdom, is central to the Government’s aim of gaining support for increased powers for the devolved government. This paper seeks to provide evidence on one aspect of the government’s anti- poverty strategy; the degree to which Scotland differs from the rest of the UK over levels of entrenched poverty. The paper demonstrates that not only does Scotland have greater entrenched poverty but that the changes in mobility since the 1990s have impacted on Scotland to a lesser degree than the rest of the UK.

The added value from adopting a CGE approach to analyse changes in environmental trade balances

The application of multi-region environmental input-output (IO) analysis to the problem of accounting for emissions generation (and/or resource use) under different accounting principles has become increasingly common in the ecological and environmental economics literature in particular, with applications at the international and interregional subnational level. However, while environmental IO analysis is invaluable in accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. Where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, extension from an IO accounting framework to a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) approach, where behavioural relationships can be modelled in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is appropriate. Our argument is illustrated by comparing the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels effect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

Measurement of 13CO2 in expired air as an index of compliance to a high carbohydrate diet naturally enriched in 13C.

The aim of this study was to determine whether breath 13CO2 measurements could be used to assess the compliance to a diet containing carbohydrates naturally enriched in 13C. The study was divided into two periods: Period 1 (baseline of 4 days) with low 13C/12C ratio carbohydrates. Period 2 (5 days) isocaloric diet with a high 13C/12C ratio (corn, cane sugar, pineapple, millet) carbohydrates. Measurements were made of respiratory gas exchange by indirect calorimetry, urinary nitrogen excretion and breath 13CO2 every morning in post-absorptive conditions, both in resting state and during a 45-min low intensity exercise (walking on a treadmill). The subjects were 10 healthy lean women (BMI 20.4 +/- 1.7 kg/m2, % body fat 24.4 +/- 1.3%), the 13C enrichment of oxidized carbohydrate and breath 13CO2 were compared to the enrichment of exogenous dietary carbohydrates. At rest the enrichment of oxidized carbohydrate increased significantly after one day of 13C carbohydrate enriched diet and reached a steady value (103 +/- 16%) similar to the enrichment of exogenous carbohydrates. During exercise, the 13C enrichment of oxidized carbohydrate remained significantly lower (68 +/- 17%) than that of dietary carbohydrates. The compliance to a diet with a high content of carbohydrates naturally enriched in 13C may be assessed from the measurement of breath 13CO2 enrichment combined with respiratory gas exchange in resting, postabsorptive conditions.

Integració d'una wiki al Campus Virtual de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

Aquest projecte presenta una sol·lució per tal d’incorporar una eina wiki al Campus Virtual de la Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Enfront de la metodologia docent clàssica, la wiki oferirà funcionalitats orientades al treball col·laboratiu i fomentarà la participació de l’alumne. L’objectiu final és tenir una eina completament integrada al Campus Virtual, que aprofiti l’aplicatiu existent i s’interrelacioni amb la resta de mòduls presents.

An interregional input-output analysis of the pollution content of trade flows and environmental trade balances between five states in the US Mid-West

In this paper we attempt an empirical application of the multi-region input-output (MRIO) method in order to enumerate the pollution content of interregional trade flows between five Mid-West regions/states in the US –Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin – and the rest of the US. This allows us to analyse some very important issues in terms of the nature and significance of interregional environmental spillovers within the US Mid-West and the existence of pollution ‘trade balances’ between states. Our results raise questions in terms of the extent to which authorities at State level can control local emissions where they are limited in the way some emissions can be controlled, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the Mid-West and US. This implies a need for policy co-ordination between national and state level authorities in the US to meet emissions reductions targets. The existence of an environmental trade balances between states also raises issues in terms of net losses/gains in terms of pollutants as a result of interregional trade within the US and whether, if certain activities can be carried out using less polluting technology in one region relative to others, it is better for the US as a whole if this type of relationship exists.

The Export Base Model with a Supply-Side Stimulus to the Export Sector

Paper delivered at the Western Regional Science Association Annual Conference, Sedona, Arizona, February, 2010.

Inter-Connectedness In The Scottish Economy, 1998-2004

The measurement of inter-connectedness in an economy using input-output tables is not new, however much of the previous literature has not had any explicit dynamic dimension. Studies have tried to estimate the degree of inter-relatedness for an economy at a given point in time using one inputoutput table, some have compared different economies at a point in time but few have looked at the question of how inter-connectedness within an economy changes over time. The publication in 2009 of a consistent series of inputoutput tables for Scotland offers the researcher the opportunity to track changes in the degree of inter-connectedness over the seven year period 1998 to 2004. The paper is in two parts. A simple measure of inter-connectedness is introduced in the first part of the paper and applied to the Scottish tables. It is shown that although the aggregate results might appear to indicate a degree of import substitution was taking place this result is not robust to industrial disaggregation. In the second part of the paper an extraction method is applied to an eleven sector disaggregation of the Scottish economy in order to estimate how interconnectedness has changed over time for each industrial sector. It is shown that for the majority of sectors the degree of interconnectedness with the rest of the Scottish economy has grown for others, in particular Financial Services and Energy and Water Supply it has not.

Exclusive Nightclubs and Lonely Hearts Columns: Nonmonotone Participation in Optional Intermediation

In many decentralised markets, the traders who benefit most from an exchange do not employ intermediaries even though they could easily afford them. At the same time, employing intermediaries is not worthwhile for traders who benefit little from trade. Together, these decisions amount to non-monotone participation choices in intermediation: only traders of middle “type” employ intermediaries, while the rest, the high and the low types, prefer to search for a trading partner directly. We provide a theoretical foundation for this, hitherto unexplained, phenomenon. We build a dynamic matching model, where a trader’s equilibrium bargaining share is a convex increasing function of her type. We also show that this is indeed a necessary condition for the existence of non-monotone equilibria.

On Identification of Bayesian DSGE Models

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a lack of identification may not be evident since the posterior of a parameter of interest may differ from its prior even if the parameter is unidentified. We show that this can even be the case even if the priors assumed on the structural parameters are independent. We suggest two Bayesian identification indicators that do not suffer from this difficulty and are relatively easy to compute. The first applies to DSGE models where the parameters can be partitioned into those that are known to be identified and the rest where it is not known whether they are identified. In such cases the marginal posterior of an unidentified parameter will equal the posterior expectation of the prior for that parameter conditional on the identified parameters. The second indicator is more generally applicable and considers the rate at which the posterior precision gets updated as the sample size (T) is increased. For identified parameters the posterior precision rises with T, whilst for an unidentified parameter its posterior precision may be updated but its rate of update will be slower than T. This result assumes that the identified parameters are pT-consistent, but similar differential rates of updates for identified and unidentified parameters can be established in the case of super consistent estimators. These results are illustrated by means of simple DSGE models.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.