Estimating equations with nonignorably missing response data

Troxel, Lipsitz, and Brennan (1997, Biometrics 53, 857-869) considered parameter estimation from survey data with nonignorable nonresponse and proposed weighted estimating equations to remove the biases in the complete-case analysis that ignores missing observations. This paper suggests two alternative modifications for unbiased estimation of regression parameters when a binary outcome is potentially observed at successive time points. The weighting approach of Robins, Rotnitzky, and Zhao (1995, Journal of the American Statistical Association 90, 106-121) is also modified to obtain unbiased estimating functions. The suggested estimating functions are unbiased only when the missingness probability is correctly specified, and misspecification of the missingness model will result in biases in the estimates. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of different methods when the covariate is binary or normal. For the simulation models used, the relative efficiency of the two new methods to the weighting methods is about 3.0 for the slope parameter and about 2.0 for the intercept parameter when the covariate is continuous and the missingness probability is correctly specified. All methods produce substantial biases in the estimates when the missingness model is misspecified or underspecified. Analysis of data from a medical survey illustrates the use and possible differences of these estimating functions.

Chlorophyll fluorescence measures of seagrasses Halophila ovalis and Zostera capricorni reveal differences in response to experimental shading

In coastal waters and estuaries, seagrass meadows are often subject to light deprivation over short time scales (days to weeks) in response to increased turbidity from anthropogenic disturbances. Seagrasses may exhibit negative physiological responses to light deprivation and suffer stress, or tolerate such stresses through photo-adaptation of physiological processes allowing more efficient use of low light. Pulse Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorometery has been used to rapidly assess changes in photosynthetic responses along in situ gradients in light. In this study, however, light is experimentally manipulated in the field to examine the photosynthesis of Halophila ovalis and Zostera capricorni. We aimed to evaluate the tolerance of these seagrasses to short-term light reductions. The seagrasses were subject to four light treatments, 0, 5, 60, and 90% shading, for a period of 14 days. In both species, as shading increased the photosynthetic variables significantly (P < 0.05) decreased by up to 40% for maximum electron transport rates (ETRmax) and 70% for saturating irradiances (Ek). Photosynthetic efficiencies (a) and effective quantum yields (ΔF/Fm′ ) increased significantly (P < 0.05), in both species, for 90% shaded plants compared with 0% shaded plants. H. ovalis was more sensitive to 90% shading than Z. capricorni, showing greater reductions in ETR max, indicative of a reduced photosynthetic capacity. An increase in Ek, Fm′ and ΔF/Fm′ for H. ovalis and Z. capricorni under 90% shading suggested an increase in photochemical efficiency and a more efficient use of low-photon flux, consistent with photo-acclimation to shading. Similar responses were found along a depth gradient from 0 to10 m, where depth related changes in ETRmax and Ek in H. ovalis implied a strong difference of irradiance history between depths of 0 and 5-10 m. The results suggest that H. ovalis is more vulnerable to light deprivation than Z. capricorni and that H. ovalis, at depths of 5-10 m, would be more vulnerable to light deprivation than intertidal populations. Both species showed a strong degree of photo-adaptation to light manipulation that may enable them to tolerate and adapt to short-term reductions in light. These consistent responses to changes in light suggest that photosynthetic variables can be used to rapidly assess the status of seagrasses when subjected to sudden and prolonged periods of reduced light

Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method

In this paper we present a novel application of scenario methods to engage a diverse constituency of senior stakeholders, with limited time availability, in debate to inform planning and policy development. Our case study project explores post-carbon futures for the Latrobe Valley region of the Australian state of Victoria. Our approach involved initial deductive development of two ‘extreme scenarios’ by a multi-disciplinary research team, based upon an extensive research programme. Over four workshops with the stakeholder constituency, these initial scenarios were discussed, challenged, refined and expanded through an inductive process, whereby participants took ‘ownership’ of a final set of three scenarios. These were both comfortable and challenging to them. The outcomes of this process subsequently informed public policy development for the region. Whilst this process did not follow a single extant structured, multi-stage scenario approach, neither was it devoid of form. Here, we seek to theorise and codify elements of our process – which we term ‘scenario improvisation’ – such that others may adopt it.

Antibody response against endogenous stages of an attenuated strain of Eimeria tenella

The application of attenuated vaccines for the prevention of chicken coccidiosis has increased exponentially in recent years. In Eimeria infections, protective immunity is thought to rely on a strong cell mediated response with antibodies supposedly playing a minor role. However, under certain conditions antibodies seem to be significant in protection. Furthermore, antibodies could be useful for monitoring natural exposure of flocks to Eimeria spp. and for monitoring the infectivity of live vaccines. Our objective was to investigate the chicken antibody response to the different parasite lifecycle stages following infection with an attenuated strain of Eimeria tenella. Western blotting analysis of parasite antigens prepared from the lining of caeca infected with the attenuated strain of E. tenella revealed two dominant antigens of 32 and 34 kDa, apparently associated with trophozoites and merozoites that were present at high concentrations between 84 and 132 h post-infection. When cryosections of caeca infected with E. tenella were probed with IgY purified from immune birds the most intense reaction was observed with the asexual stages. Western blotting analysis of proteins of purified sporozoites and third generation merozoites and absorption of stage-specific antibodies from sera suggested that a large proportion of antigens is shared by the two stages. The time-courses of the antibody response to sporozoite and merozoite antigens were similar but varied depending on the inoculation regime and the degree of oocyst recirculation.

Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia.

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

Response of tropical turfgrasses to recycled water in southern Queensland

The effects of recycled water (effluent) on 8 tropical grasses growing in 100-L bags of sand were studied in Murrumba Downs, just north of Brisbane in southern Queensland (27.4°S, 153.1°E). The species used were: Axonopus compressus (broad-leaf carpetgrass), Cynodon dactylon (bermudagrass 'Winter Green') and C. dactylon x C. transvaalensis hybrid ('Tifgreen'), Digitaria didactyla (Queensland blue couch), Paspalum notatum (bahiagrass '38824'), Stenotaphrum secundatum (buffalograss 'Palmetto'), Eremochloa ophiuroides (centipedegrass 'Centec') and Zoysia japonica (zoysiagrass 'ZT-11'). From May 2002 to June 2003, control plots were irrigated with potable water and fertilised monthly. Plots irrigated with effluent received no fertiliser from May to August 2002 (deficient phase), complete fertilisers at control rates from September to December 2002 (recovery phase) and nitrogen (N) only at control rates from January to June 2003 (supplementary phase). In October 2002, the average shoot weight of plants from the effluent plots was 4% of that from potable plots, with centipedegrass less affected than the other species (relative growth of 20%). Shoot N concentrations declined by 40% in the effluent plots from May to August 2002 (1.8 ± 0.1%) along with phosphorus (P, 0.46 ± 0.02%), potassium (K, 1.6 ± 0.2%), sulfur (S, 0.28 ± 0.02%) and manganese (Mn, 19 ± 2 mg/kg) concentrations. Only the N and Mn concentrations were below the optimum for grasses. The grasses grew satisfactorily when irrigated with effluent if it was supplemented with N. Between January and June 2003 the average weight of shoots from the effluent plots was 116% of the weight of shoots from the control plots. Shoot nutrient concentrations were also similar in the 2 regimes at this time. The recycled water supplied 23% of the N required for maximum shoot growth, 80-100% of the P and K, and 500-880% of the S, calcium and magnesium. The use of recycled water represents savings in irrigation and fertiliser costs, and reductions in the discharge of N and P to local waterways. Effluent is currently about 50% of the cost of potable water with a saving of about AU$8000/ha.year for a typical sporting field.

Methodological and Empirical Advances in the Quantitative Analysis of Spontaneous Responses in Psychophysiological Time Series

The aim of the present study was to advance the methodology and use of time series analysis to quantify dynamic structures in psychophysiological processes and thereby to produce information on spontaneously coupled physiological responses and their behavioral and experiential correlates. Series of analyses using both simulated and empirical cardiac (IBI), electrodermal (EDA), and facial electromyographic (EMG) data indicated that, despite potential autocorrelated structures, smoothing increased the reliability of detecting response coupling from an interindividual distribution of intraindividual measures and that especially the measures of covariance produced accurate information on the extent of coupled responses. This methodology was applied to analyze spontaneously coupled IBI, EDA, and facial EMG responses and vagal activity in their relation to emotional experience and personality characteristics in a group of middle-aged men (n = 37) during the administration of the Rorschach testing protocol. The results revealed new characteristics in the relationship between phasic end-organ synchronization and vagal activity, on the one hand, and individual differences in emotional adjustment to novel situations on the other. Specifically, it appeared that the vagal system is intimately related to emotional and social responsivity. It was also found that the lack of spontaneously synchronized responses is related to decreased energetic arousal (e.g., depression, mood). These findings indicate that the present process analysis approach has many advantages for use in both experimental and applied research, and that it is a useful new paradigm in psychophysiological research. Keywords: Autonomic Nervous System; Emotion; Facial Electromyography; Individual Differences; Spontaneous Responses; Time Series Analysis; Vagal System

Analysis of randomly time varying systems by gaussian closure technique

The Gaussian probability closure technique is applied to study the random response of multidegree of freedom stochastically time varying systems under non-Gaussian excitations. Under the assumption that the response, the coefficient and the excitation processes are jointly Gaussian, deterministic equations are derived for the first two response moments. It is further shown that this technique leads to the best Gaussian estimate in a minimum mean square error sense. An example problem is solved which demonstrates the capability of this technique for handling non-linearity, stochastic system parameters and amplitude limited responses in a unified manner. Numerical results obtained through the Gaussian closure technique compare well with the exact solutions.

Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

To reactivate or not to reactivate : Control of KSHV lytic replication is essential for apoptosis in response to p53 restoration

Kaposi's sarcoma herpesvirus (KSHV) is an oncogenic human virus and the causative agent of three human malignancies: Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), Multicentric Castleman's Disease (MCD), and primary effusion lymphoma (PEL). In tumors, KSHV establishes latent infection during which it produces no infectious particles. Latently infected cells can enter the lytic replication cycle, and upon provision of appropriate cellular signals, produce progeny virus. PEL, commonly described in patients with AIDS, represents a diffuse large-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, with median survival time less than six months after diagnosis. As tumor suppressor gene TP53 mutations occur rarely in PEL, the aim of this thesis was to investigate whether non-genotoxic activation of the p53 pathway can eradicate malignant PEL cells. This thesis demonstrates that Nutlin-3, a small-molecule inhibitor of the p53-MDM2 interaction, efficiently restored p53 function in PEL cells, leading to cell cycle arrest and massive apoptosis. Furthermore, we found that KSHV infection activated DNA damage signaling, rendering the cells more sensitive to p53-dependent cell death. We also showed in vivo the therapeutic potential of p53 restoration that led to regression of subcutaneous and intraperitoneal PEL tumor xenografts without adversely affecting normal cells. Importantly, we demonstrated that in a small subset of intraperitoneal PEL tumors, spontaneous induction of viral reactivation dramatically impaired Nutlin-3-induced p53-mediated apoptosis. Accordingly, we found that elevated KSHV lytic transcripts correlated with PEL tumor burden in animals and that inhibition of viral reactivation in vitro restored cytotoxic activity of a small-molecule inhibitor of the p53-MDM2 interaction. Latency provides a unique opportunity for KSHV to escape host immune surveillance and to establish persistent infections. However, to maintain viral reservoirs and spread to other hosts, KSHV must be reactivated from latency and enter into the lytic growth phase. We showed that phosphorylation of nucleolar phosphoprotein nucleophosmin (NPM) by viral cyclin-CDK6 is critical for establishment and maintenance of the KSHV latency. In short, this study provides evidence that the switch between latent phase and lytic replication is a critical step that determines the outcome of viral infection and the pathogenesis of KSHV-induced malignancies. Our data may thus contribute to development of novel targeted therapies for intervention and treatment of KSHV-associated cancers.

Multi-time scale analysis applied to long time simulation of power systems

The results are presented of applying multi-time scale analysis using the singular perturbation technique for long time simulation of power system problems. A linear system represented in state-space form can be decoupled into slow and fast subsystems. These subsystems can be simulated with different time steps and then recombined to obtain the system response. Simulation results with a two-time scale analysis of a power system show a large saving in computational costs.

Thermal characterization of microheaters from the dynamic response

Thermal characterization of surface-micromachined microheaters is carried out from their dynamic response to electrothermal excitations. An electrical equivalent circuit model is developed for the thermo-mechanical system. The mechanical parameters are extracted from the frequency response obtained using a laser Doppler vibrometer. The resonant frequencies of the microheaters are measured and compared with FEM simulations. The thermal time constants are obtained from the electrical equivalent model by fitting the model response to the measured frequency response. Microheaters with an active area of 140 µm × 140 µm have been realized on two different layers (poly-1 and poly-2) with two different air gaps (2 µm and 2.75 µm). The effective time constants, combining thermal and mechanical responses, are in the range of 0.13–0.22 ms for heaters on the poly-1 layer and 1.9 µs–0.15 ms for microheaters on the poly-2 layer. The thermal time constants of the microheaters are in the range of a few microseconds, thus making them suitable for sensor applications that need a faster thermal response.

Stochastic Modeling of an Aircraft Traversing a Runway Using Time Series Analysis

Time series, from a narrow point of view, is a sequence of observations on a stochastic process made at discrete and equally spaced time intervals. Its future behavior can be predicted by identifying, fitting, and confirming a mathematical model. In this paper, time series analysis is applied to problems concerning runwayinduced vibrations of an aircraft. A simple mathematical model based on this technique is fitted to obtain the impulse response coefficients of an aircraft system considered as a whole for a particular type of operation. Using this model, the output which is the aircraft response can be obtained with lesser computation time for any runway profile as the input.

Modelling temperature, photoperiod and vernalization responses of Brunonia australis (Goodeniaceae) and Calandrinia sp (Portulacaceae) to predict flowering time

Crop models for herbaceous ornamental species typically include functions for temperature and photoperiod responses, but very few incorporate vernalization, which is a requirement of many traditional crops. This study investigated the development of floriculture crop models, which describe temperature responses, plus photoperiod or vernalization requirements, using Australian native ephemerals Brunonia australis and Calandrinia sp. A novel approach involved the use of a field crop modelling tool, DEVEL2. This optimization program estimates the parameters of selected functions within the development rate models using an iterative process that minimizes sum of squares residual between estimated and observed days for the phenological event. Parameter profiling and jack-knifing are included in DEVEL2 to remove bias from parameter estimates and introduce rigour into the parameter selection process. Development rate of B. australis from planting to first visible floral bud (VFB) was predicted using a multiplicative approach with a curvilinear function to describe temperature responses and a broken linear function to explain photoperiod responses. A similar model was used to describe the development rate of Calandrinia sp., except the photoperiod function was replaced with an exponential vernalization function, which explained a facultative cold requirement and included a coefficient for determining the vernalization ceiling temperature. Temperature was the main environmental factor influencing development rate for VFB to anthesis of both species and was predicted using a linear model. The phenology models for B. australis and Calandrinia sp. described development rate from planting to VFB and from VFB to anthesis in response to temperature and photoperiod or vernalization and may assist modelling efforts of other herbaceous ornamental plants. In addition to crop management, the vernalization function could be used to identify plant communities most at risk from predicted increases in temperature due to global warming.

Rhizoctonia solani as a potato pathogen : Variation of isolates in Finland and host response

Rhizoctonia solani is a soil inhabiting basidiomycetous fungus able to induce a wide range of symptoms in many plant species. This genetically complex species is divided to 13 anastomosis groups (AG), of which AG-3 is specialized to infect potato. However, also a few other AGs are able to infect or live in close contact with potato. On potato, R. solani infection causes two main types of diseases including stem canker observed as a dark brown lesions on developing stems and stolons, and black scurf that develops on new tubers close to the time of harvest. These disease symptoms are collectively called a ‘Rhizoctonia disease complex’. Between the growing seasons R. solani survives in soil and plant debri as sclerotia or as the sclerotia called black scurf on potato tubers which when used as seed offer the main route for dispersal of the fungus to new areas. The reasons for the dominance of AG-3 on potato seem to be attributable to its highly specialization to potato and its ability to infect and form sclerotia efficiently at low temperatures. In this study, a large nationwide survey of R. solani isolates was made in potato crops in Finland. Almost all characterized isolates belonged to AG-3. Additionally, three other AGs (AG-2-1, AG-4 and AG-5) were found associated with symptoms on potato plants but they were weaker pathogens on potato than AG-3 as less prone to form black scurf. According to phylogenetic analysis of the internal transcribed sequences (ITS) of the ribosomal RNA genes the Finnish AG-3 isolates are closely related to each other even though a wide variation of physiological features was observed between them. Detailed analysis of the ITS regions revealed single nucleotide polymorphism in 14 nucleotide positions of ITS-1 and ITS-2. Additionally, compensatory base changes on ITS-2 were detected which suggests that potato-infecting R. solani AG-3 could be considered as a separate species instead of an AG of R. solani. For the first time, molecular defence responses were studied and detected during the early phases of interaction between R. solani AG-3 and potato. Extensive systemic signalling for defence exploiting several known defence pathways was activated as soon as R. solani came into close contact with the base of a sprout. The defence response was strong enough to protect vulnerable sprout tips from new attacks by the pathogen. These results at least partly explain why potato emergence is eventually successful even under heavy infection pressure by R. solani.