Output sustainability to exogenous and endogenous shocks: evidence from emerging economies

This paper studies the impact of exogenous and endogenous shocks (exogenous shock is used interchangeably with external shock; endogenous shock is used interchangeably with domestic shock) on output fluctuations in post-communist countries during the 2000s. The first part presents the analytical framework and formulates a research hypothesis. The second part presents vector autoregressive estimation and analysis model proposed by Pesaran (2004) and Pesaran and Smith (2006) that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and spreads and accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CD) across the countries. Impulse response functions show that exogenous positive shock lead to a drop in output sustainability for 9 over 12 Central Eastern European countries and Russia, when the endogenous shock is mild and ambiguous. Moreover, the effect of exogenous shock is more significant during the crises. Variance decompositions show that exogenous shock in the aftermath of crisis had a substantial impact on economic activity of emerging economies.

Long-run restrictions and survey forecasts of output, consumption and investment

We consider the extent to which long-horizon survey forecasts of consumption, investment and output growth are consistent with theory-based steady-state values, and whether imposing these restrictions on long-horizon forecasts will enhance their accuracy. The restrictions we impose are consistent with a two-sector model in which the variables grow at different rates in steady state. The restrictions are imposed by exponential-tilting of simple auxiliary forecast densities. We show that imposing the consumption-output restriction yields modest improvements in the long-horizon output growth forecasts, and larger improvements in the forecasts of the cointegrating combination of consumption and output: the transformation of the data on which accuracy is assessed plays an important role.

Variance in male reproductive success and sexual size dimorphism in pinnipeds: testing an assumption of sexual selection theory

The theory of evolution by sexual selection for sexual size dimorphism (SSD) postulates that SSD primarily reflects the adaptation of males and females to their different reproductive roles. For example, competition among males for access to females increases male body size because larger males are better able to maintain dominant status than smaller males. Larger dominant males sire most offspring while smaller subordinate males are unsuccessful, leading to skew in reproductive success. Therefore, species with male-biased SSD are predicted to have greater variance in male reproductive success than those in which both sexes are similar in size. We tested this prediction among the Pinnipedia, a mammalian group with a great variation in SSD. From a literature review, we identified genetic estimates of male reproductive success for 10 pinniped taxa (eight unique species and two subspecies of a ninth species) that range from seals with similarly sized males and females to species in which males are more than four times as large as females. We found no support for a positive relationship between variance in reproductive success and SSD among pinnipeds after excluding the elephant seals Mirounga leonina and Mirounga angustirostris, which we discuss as distinctive cases. Several explanations for these results are presented, including the revival of one of Darwin's original ideas. Darwin proposed that natural selection may explain SSD based on differences in energetic requirements between sexes and the potential for sexual niche segregation. Males may develop larger bodies to exploit resources that remain unavailable to females due to the energetic constraints imposed on female mammals by gestation and lactation. The importance of this alternative explanation remains to be tested.

Scientific output trends in oral health in Brazil

Objective. To describe dental research trends in Brazil (especially population-based oral health) in the early Twenty-first Century. Methods. The abstracts of studies presented at meetings of the Brazilian Society for Dental Medicine Research (Sociedade Brasileira de Pesquisa Odontologica) from 2001-2006 were assessed in terms of methodological design (aggregate or population-based and individual-based studies, observational and intervention studies, cross-sectional and longitudinal studies); general type (literature review, studies with human subjects, and laboratory studies); and classification into one of the 19 specialty categories recognized by the Brazilian Federal Dentistry Council. Of the 10 406 abstracts presented in this period, 5 203 (50%) were reviewed. Results. Concerning methodological design, 87.5% of the abstracts referred to individual-based studies, whereas 12.5% were of aggregate studies. Concerning the general category, 41.7% referred to studies with human subjects. The remaining abstracts (58.3%) described in vitro (31.1%) or in vivo (23.6%) laboratory research and literature reviews (3.6%). Concerning the Council`s specialty categories, only five had a frequency higher than 10.0%: esthetic dentistry, periodontics, endodontics, pediatric dentistry, and population-based oral health. Conclusions. Brazil`s scientific output in the field of oral health for the period 2001-2006 was balanced, with increasing interest in the area of population-based oral health.

Effect of inbreeding on growth and reproductive traits of Nellore cattle in Brazil

The objective of this study was to identify and quantify the influence of F (inbreeding coefficient) on weaning weight (WW), weight gain from weaning to 18 months of age (WG345), finishing visual score (precocity) at 18 months of age, muscling visual score at 18 months of age (MUS), hip height (HH), scrotal circumference at 18 months of age (SC), heifer probability of pregnancy at 14 months of age (PP14), and stayability (STAY) in Brazilian Nellore cattle. The complete pedigree included 417,552 animals born between 1984 and 2007 on 12 farms located in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo and Bahia. Following the observation of a statistically significant effect (P<0.05) of the covariates individual inbreeding coefficient (F) and maternal inbreeding coefficient, regression analysis of each trait, adjusted for all other effects, was performed as a function of the linear and quadratic effect of F and maternal F (when significant). Inbreeding negatively affected all traits studied (P<0.05), except for muscling. A quadratic effect of individual F on WW, WG345, HH and PP14, and a quadratic effect of maternal F on WG345 and HH were observed. Levels of inbreeding higher than 7-11% affected negatively growth and reproductive performance of Nellore cattle. Therefore, inbreeding should be avoided, except for purposes of genetic breeding whose main objective is the fixation of certain alleles in the population. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stigmatic surface in the Vochysiaceae: reproductive and taxonomic implications

(Stigmatic surface, reproductive biology and taxonomy of the Vochysiaceae). The Vochysiaceae are Neotropical trees and shrubs, common in the savanna areas in Central Brazil (Cerrados). The family has been traditionally divided into two tribes: Erismeae, with three genera, and Vochysieae, with five genera. We investigated the stigmatic surface of six Vochysiaceae species, belonging to four genera of Vochysieae: Vochysia, Salvertia, Callisthene and Qualea. Flowers and buds at different developmental stages were collected. Morphological features were observed on fresh material and stigmatic receptivity was inferred based on esterasic activity. Pistils were fixed and embedded in paraplast and sectioned on a rotary microtome; the sections were stained before histological analysis. Stigmas of open flowers were also observed by scanning electron microscopy. Stigmas of all species were wet and showed esterasic activity at pre-anthesis and anthesis stages. Stigmatic surface was continuous with transmitting tissue of glandular nature. Vochysia and Salvertia stigmatic surfaces were formed by multicelular uniseriate hairs, and species of the remaining genera showed papillate surface. The exudate over mature stigmas in all species flowed without rupture of stigmatic Surface and pollen tubes grew down between hairs or papillae. Differences on the stigmatic surface agreed with a phylogenetic reconstruction that separated two clades and indicated that Vochysieae is not monophyletic. Stigmatic features could not be associated with pollination and breeding systems.

Conditional male dimorphism and alternative reproductive tactics in a Neotropical arachnid (Opiliones)

In arthropods, most cases of morphological dimorphism within males are the result of a conditional evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) with status-dependent tactics. In conditionally male-dimorphic species, the status` distributions of male morphs often overlap, and the environmentally cued threshold model (ET) states that the degree of overlap depends on the genetic variation in the distribution of the switchpoints that determine which morph is expressed in each value of status. Here we describe male dimorphism and alternative mating behaviors in the harvestman Serracutisoma proximum. Majors express elongated second legs and use them in territorial fights; minors possess short second legs and do not fight, but rather sneak into majors` territories and copulate with egg-guarding females. The static allometry of second legs reveals that major phenotype expression depends on body size (status), and that the switchpoint underlying the dimorphism presents a large amount of genetic variation in the population, which probably results from weak selective pressure on this trait. With a mark-recapture study, we show that major phenotype expression does not result in survival costs, which is consistent with our hypothesis that there is weak selection on the switchpoint. Finally, we demonstrate that switchpoint is independent of status distribution. In conclusion, our data support the ET model prediction that the genetic correlation between status and switchpoint is low, allowing the status distribution to evolve or to fluctuate seasonally, without any effect on the position of the mean switchpoint.

Reproductive biology of six Brazilian Myrtaceae: is there a syndrome associated with buzz-pollination?

The floral phenology and reproductive biology of six sympatric arboreal Myrtaceae species were studied in the coastal plain forest (Ubatuba, Brazil, 44 degrees 48`W 23 degrees 22`S), from September 1999 to April 2002. Flowering started in the transition from the driest to the most humid season (Sep/Oct) and lasted until March. The sequence with which the species flowered each year was consistently the same. However, the timing of flowering onset, peak, end, and overlap differed from one year to another. Myrtaceae species were classified as xenogamic according to the pollen:ovule ratios, but two of them seem to present some degree of self-compatibility. Flowers of all species opened at sunrise and lasted for I day. Bombus morio (Apidae: Bombini) was the most common visitor followed by Melipona rufiventris (Apidae: Meliponini). Buzz pollination in Myrtaceae was common at the study area and seems to be related to bees` behaviour and to some aspects of flowers` morphology.

Resource defense polygyny shifts to female defense polygyny over the course of the reproductive season of a Neotropical harvestman

Although studies classify the polygynous mating system of a given species into female defense polygyny (FDP) or resource defense polygyny (RDP), the boundary between these two categories is often slight. Males of some species may even shift between these two types of polygyny in response to temporal variation in social and environmental conditions. Here, we examine the mating system of the Neotropical harvestman Acutisoma proximum and, in order to assess if mate acquisition in males corresponds to FDP or RDP, we tested four contrasting predictions derived from the mating system theory. At the beginning of the reproductive season, males fight with other males for the possession of territories on the vegetation where females will later oviposit, as expected in RDP. Females present a marked preference for specific host plant species, and males establish their territories in areas where these host plants are specially abundant, which is also expected in RDP. Later in the reproductive season, males reduce their patrolling activity and focus on defending individual females that are ovipositing inside their territories, as what occurs in FDP. This is the first described case of an arachnid that exhibits a shift in mating system over the reproductive season, revealing that we should be cautious when defining the mating system of a species based on few observations concentrated in a brief period.

Reproductive ecology of dipsadine snakes, with emphasis on South American species

A relatively large amount of variation occurs in the reproductive ecology of tropical snakes, and this variation is generally regarded as being a consequence of seasonality in climate and prey availability. In some groups, even closely related species may differ in their reproductive ecology; however, in others it seems to be very conservative. Here we explore whether characters related to reproduction are phylogenetically constrained in a monophyletic group of snakes, the subfamily Dipsadinae, which ranges from Mexico to southern South America. We provide original data on reproduction for Leptodeira annulata, Imantodes cenchoa, and three species of Sibynomorphus from southern, southeastern and central Brazil, and data from literature for other species and populations of dipsadines. Follicular cycles were seasonal in Atractus reticulatus, Dipsa, albifrons, Hypsiglena torquata, Leptodeira maculata, L. punctata, Sibynomorphus spp. and Sibon sanniola from areas where climate is seasonal. In contrast, extended or continuous follicular cycles were recorded in Dipsas catesbyi, D. neivai, Imantodes cenchoa, Leptodeira annulata, and Ninia maculata from areas with seasonal and aseasonal climates. Testicular cycles also varied from seasonal (in H. torquiata) to continuous (in Dipsa,5 spp., Leptodeira annulata, L. maculata, N. maculata, and Sibynomorphus spp.). Most dipsadines are small (less than 500 rum SVL), and females attain sexual maturity with similar relative body size than males. Sexual dimorphism occurred in terms of SVL and tail length in most species, and clutch size tended to be small (less than five eggs). Combat behavior occurs in Imantodes cenchoa, which did not show sexual size dimorphism. Reproductive timing, for both females and males, varied among species but in general there were no differences between the tribes of Dipsadinae in most of the reproductive characteristics, such as mean body size, relative size at sexual maturity, sexual size and tail dimorphism, duration of vitellogenesis or egg-carrying in oviducts.