915 resultados para Relative risk aversion


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Apesar de diversos estudos in vitro e em populações indicarem um efeito protetor do β-caroteno em sistemas biológicos, estudos epidemiológicos como o \"The Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study\" (ATBC) e o \"The Beta-Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial\" (CARET) mostraram um aumento na incidência de câncer pulmonar em indivíduos fumantes suplementados com β-caroteno. Essa ação contraditória tem sido chamada na literatura de \"Paradoxo do β-Caroteno\". Sabe-se que este carotenóide sob altas pressões de oxigênio ou na presença de peróxidos pode sofrer oxidação e levar a formação de compostos como aldeídos, epóxidos, etc, que são capazes de se adicionarem covalentemente ao DNA. Estudos, in vitro e in vivo têm demonstrado a possibilidade de os metabólitos do β-caroteno agirem como agentes pró-carcinogênicos. Estes agentes quando ativados quimicamente podem levar à formação de adutos de DNA. Já se sabe que alguns desses adutos encontramse em níveis aumentados em diversas situações de risco de câncer. Diversos grupos, incluindo o nosso, têm demonstrado a formação de lesões em DNA a partir de aldeídos e epóxidos exógenos ou gerados endogenamente. O presente trabalho mostra que a reação do β-caroteno e dois de seus produtos de oxidação, retinal e β-apo-8\'-carotenal, com 2\'-desoxiguanosina e DNA leva à formação de adutos. Dentre os adutos formados, foi caracterizado o aduto 1,N2eteno-2\'-desoxiguanosina (1 ,N2-εdGuo). Os níveis de outro aduto de DNA, a 8-oxo-7,8-dihidro-2\'-deoxiguanosina (8-oxodGuo), também foram monitoradas para estudo comparativo. A formação dos adutos também foi verificada em fibroblastos normais de pulmão humano (linhagem IMR-90) expostos ao β-caroteno e aos seus produtos de oxidação. Experimentos com ratos suplementados com β-caroteno e expostos à fumaça de cigarro em períodos de 7, 30 e 180 dias, mostraram níveis aumentados de 1,N2-εdGuo nos animais suplementados com o carotenóide comparado ao grupo veículo. Aumento no nível de 8-oxodGuo também foi verificado nos tratamentos de 7 e 180 dias. Um aumento significativo no nível do eteno aduto também foi verificado nos animais suplementados com β-caroteno e expostos à fumaça de cigarro, comparado ao grupo apenas exposto à fumaça após 7 e 180 dias de exposição. Nestes mesmos grupos, o aumento do 8-oxodGuo só foi observado no tratamento por 180 dias. Sabendo que estas lesões são comprovadamente mutagênicas, nossos estudos podem contribuir para o esclarecimento dos mecanismos envolvidos na formação de câncer em fumantes suplementados ou não com β-caroteno.

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A comercialização de energia elétrica de fontes renováveis, ordinariamente, constitui-se uma atividade em que as operações são estruturadas sob condições de incerteza, por exemplo, em relação ao preço \"spot\" no mercado de curto prazo e a geração de energia dos empreendimentos. Deriva desse fato a busca dos agentes pela formulação de estratégias e utilização de ferramentais para auxiliá-los em suas tomadas de decisão, visando não somente o retorno financeiro, mas também à mitigação dos riscos envolvidos. Análises de investimentos em fontes renováveis compartilham de desafios similares. Na literatura, o estudo da tomada de decisão considerada ótima sob condições de incerteza se dá por meio da aplicação de técnicas de programação estocástica, que viabiliza a modelagem de problemas com variáveis randômicas e a obtenção de soluções racionais, de interesse para o investidor. Esses modelos permitem a incorporação de métricas de risco, como por exemplo, o Conditional Value-at-Risk, a fim de se obter soluções ótimas que ponderem a expectativa de resultado financeiro e o risco associado da operação, onde a aversão ao risco do agente torna-se um condicionante fundamental. O objetivo principal da Tese - sob a ótica dos agentes geradores, consumidores e comercializadores - é: (i) desenvolver e implementar modelos de otimização em programação linear estocástica com métrica CVaR associada, customizados para cada um desses agentes; e (ii) aplicá-los na análise estratégica de operações como forma de apresentar alternativas factíveis à gestão das atividades desses agentes e contribuir com a proposição de um instrumento conceitualmente robusto e amigável ao usuário, para utilização por parte das empresas. Nesse contexto, como antes frisado, dá-se ênfase na análise do risco financeiro dessas operações por meio da aplicação do CVaR e com base na aversão ao risco do agente. Considera-se as fontes renováveis hídrica e eólica como opções de ativos de geração, de forma a estudar o efeito de complementaridade entre fontes distintas e entre sites distintos da mesma fonte, avaliando-se os rebatimentos nas operações.

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Objectives: Self-rated health (SRH) is known to be a valid indicator for the prediction of health outcomes. The aims of this study were to describe and analyse the associations between SRH and health status, socio-economic and demographic characteristics; and between SRH and mortality in a Spanish population. Study design: Longitudinal study. Methods: A sample of 5275 adults (age ≥21 years) residing in the Valencian Community (Spanish Mediterranean region) was surveyed in 2005 and followed for four years. SRH was categorized into good and poor health. The response variable was mortality (dead/alive), obtained from the local mortality register. Logistic regression models were adjusted in order to analyse the associations between SRH and health status, socio-economic and demographic characteristics; odds ratios were calculated to measure the associations. Poisson regression models were adjusted in order to analyse the associations between mortality and explanatory variables; the relative risk of death was calculated to measure the associations. Results: Poor SRH was reported by 25.9% of respondents, and the mortality rate after four years of follow-up was 3.6%. An association was found between SRH and the presence of chronic disease and disability in men and women. A perception of poor health vs good health led to a mortality risk of 3.0 in men and 2.7 in women. SRH was predictive of mortality, even after adjusting for all other variables. In men and women, the presence of disability provided additional predictive ability. Conclusions: SRH was predictive of mortality in both men and women, and acted as a mediator between socio-economic, demographic and health conditions and mortality.

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Evidence shows that financial integration in the euro area is retrenching at a quicker pace than outside the union. Home bias persists: Governments compete on funding costs by supporting ‘their’ banks with massive state aids, which distorts the playing field and feeds the risk-aversion loop. This situation intensifies friction in credit markets, thus hampering the transmission of monetary policies and, potentially, economic growth. This paper discusses the theoretical foundations of a banking union in a common currency area and the legal and economic aspects of EU responses. As a result, two remedies are proposed to deal with moral hazard in a common currency area: a common (unlimited) financial backstop to a privately funded recapitalisation/resolution fund and a blanket prohibition on state aids.

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From Introduction. The Ukrainian crisis, which deepened in February with the invasion of the Crimean peninsula by Russia, has exposed a serious poverty of strategy and leadership from Europe and the US. Such a lack of strategic vision in responding to the Ukrainian crisis, considered by Nicholas Burns among others, as one of the greatest crises in Europe since 1991, diverges between the European Union and the US. It is undeniable that the western leadership is unable to get its act together. In the US, the perpetual fratricide between the republicans and democrats over anything is affecting the development and implementation of sound foreign policies, while in the EU, there is no clear European leadership emerging, neither from the 28 Member States nor the High Representative and Presidents of the Council and Commission. The EU is once again facing its perpetual policy of risk aversion. On the one hand, the US remains conflicted in identifying its identity in this post-liberal world order, while the EU difficulty faces the inevitable limitation of its soft power. With a West in crisis, no decent strategy and/or policy to unravel, or at least contain, the Ukrainian crisis can emerge in this axiomatic moment with the making of the new world order.

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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the frequency of use of play equipment in public schools and parks in Brisbane, Australia, and to estimate an annual rate of injury per use of equipment, overall and for particular types of equipment. Methods: Injury data on all children injured from playground equipment and seeking medical attention at the emergency department of either of the two children's hospitals in the City of Brisbane were obtained for the years 1996 and 1997. Children were observed at play on five different pieces of play equipment in a random sample of 16 parks and 16 schools in the City of Brisbane. Children injured in the 16 parks and schools were counted, and rates of injury and use were calculated. Results: The ranked order for equipment use in the 16 schools was climbing equipment (3762 uses), horizontal ladders (2309 uses), and slides (856 uses). Each horizontal ladder was used 2.6 times more often than each piece of climbing equipment. Each horizontal ladder was used 7.8 times more than each piece of climbing equipment in the sample of public parks. Slides were used 4.6 times more than climbing equipment in parks and 1.2 times more in public schools. The annual injury rate for the 16 schools and 16 parks under observation was 0.59/100000 and 0.26/100000 uses of equipment, respectively. Conclusions: This study shows that annual number of injuries per standardized number of uses could be used to determine the relative risk of particular pieces of playground equipment. The low overall rate of injuries/100000 uses of equipment in this study suggests that the benefit of further reduction of injury in this community may be marginal and outweigh the economic costs in addition to reducing challenging play opportunities.

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OBJECTIVE- Diabetes, a major health problem worldwide, increases the risk of cardiovascular disease and its associated mortality. Evidence of the overall benefits of lipid modification in this area is needed. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS- The Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischemic Disease (LIPID) trial showed that cholesterol-lowering treatment with pravastatin reduced mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD) events in 9,014 patients aged 31-75 years with CHD and total cholesterol 4.0-7.0 mmol/l. We measured the effects of pravastatin therapy, 40 mg/day over 6.0 years, on the risk of CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction and other cardiovascular outcomes in 1,077 LIPID patients with diabetes and 940 patients with impaired fasting glucose (IFG). RESULTS- in patients allocated to placebo, the risk of a major CHD event was 61% higher in patients with diabetes and 23% higher in the IFG group than in patients with normal fasting glucose, and the risk of any cardiovascular event was 37% higher in the diabetic group and 19% higher in the IFG group. Pravastatin therapy reduced the risk of a major CHD event overall from 15.9 to 12.3% (relative risk reduction [RRR] 24%, P < 0.001) and from 23.4 to 19.6% in the diabetic group (19%, P = 0.11); in the diabetic group, the reduction was not significantly different from the reductions in the other groups. Pravastatin reduced the risk of any cardiovascular event from 52.7 to 45.2% (21%, P < 0.008) in patients With diabetes and from 45.7 to 37.1% (26%, P = 0.003) in the IFG group. Pravastatin reduced the risk of stroke from 9.9 to 6.3% in the diabetic group (RRR 39%, Cl 7-61%, P = 0.02) and from 5.4 to 3.4% in the IFG group (RRR 42%, Cl -9 to 69%, P = 0.09). Pravastatin did not reduce the incidence of diabetes. Over 6 years, pravastatin therapy prevented one major,CHD event (CHD death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) in 23 patients with IFG and 18 patients with diabetes. A meta-analysis of other major trials confirmed the high absolute risks of diabetes and IFG and the absolute benefits of statin therapy in these patients. CONCLUSIONS- Cholesterol-lowering treatment with pravastatin therapy prevents cardiovascular events, including stroke, in patients with diabetes or IFG and established CHD.

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Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those that are both vulnerable to threatening processes and that if lost or degraded, will result in conservation targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding the patterns of biodiversity, much less is given to determining the areas of the landscape most vulnerable to threats. We assessed the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of native forest to conversion to plantations in the ecologically significant temperate rainforest region of south central Chile. The area of the study region is 4.2 million ha and the extent of plantations is approximately 200000 ha. First, the spatial distribution of native forest conversion to plantations was determined. The variables related to the spatial distribution of this threatening process were identified through the development of a classification tree and the generation of a multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. The model of native forest conversion explained 43% of the deviance and the discrimination ability of the model was high. Predictions were made of where native forest conversion is likely to occur in the future. Due to patterns of climate, topography, soils and proximity to infrastructure and towns, remaining forest areas differ in their relative risk of being converted to plantations. Another factor that may increase the vulnerability of remaining native forest in a subset of the study region is the proposed construction of a highway. We found that 90% of the area of existing plantations within this region is within 2.5 km of roads. When the predictions of native forest conversion were recalculated accounting for the construction of this highway, it was found that: approximately 27000 ha of native forest had an increased probability of conversion. The areas of native forest identified to be vulnerable to conversion are outside of the existing reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.

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Background: Recent case-control studies suggest that, given equal smoking exposure, women may have a higher relative risk of developing lung cancer than men. Despite prospective data that conflict with this hypothesis, mechanistic studies to find a biologic basis for a sex difference continue. Methods: We addressed the hypothesis directly by analyzing prospective data from former and current smokers in two large cohorts-the Nurses' Health Study of women and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study of men. We calculated incidence rates and hazard ratios of lung cancer in women compared with men, adjusting for age, number of cigarettes smoked per day, age at start of smoking, and time since quitting, using Cox proportional hazards models. We also reviewed published results from prospective analyses. Results: From 1986 through 2000, 955 and 311 primary lung cancers were identified among 60 296 women and 25 397 men, respectively, who ranged in age from 40 to 79 years. Incidence rates per 100 000 person-years for women and men were 253 and 232, respectively, among current smokers and 81 and 73, respectively, among former smokers. The hazard ratio in women ever smokers compared with men was 1.11 (95% confidence interval = 0.95 to 1.31). Six published prospective cohort studies allowed assessment of comparative susceptibility to lung cancer by sex. None supported an excess risk of lung cancer for women. Conclusions: Women do not appear to have a greater susceptibility to lung cancer than men, given equal smoking exposure. Research should be focused on enhancing preventive interventions for all.

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Aims Fibrates or nicotinic acid are usually recommended for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in patients with low plasma levels of both low-density tipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) less than or equal to140 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.6 mmol/L) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) less than or equal to40 mg/dL (less than or equal to1.03 mmol/L). The LIPID trial, a randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 9014 patients at 87 centres in Australia and New Zealand, provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of an HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor in patients with tow LDL-C and tow HDL-C. Methods and results Participants in this post hoc substudy were 2073 patients aged 31-75 years with baseline LDL-C less than or equal to140 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.6 mmoL/L), HDL-C less than or equal to40 mg/dL (less than or equal to1.03 mmol/L), and triglyceride less than or equal to300 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.4 mmol/L). The relative risk reduction with pravastatin treatment was 27% for major coronary events (95% Cl 8-42%), 27% for coronary heart disease mortality (95% CI 0-47%), 21% for all-cause mortality (95% Cl 0-38%), and 51% for stroke (95% CI 24-69%). The number needed to treat to prevent a major coronary event over 6 years was 22. Conclusions Treatment with pravastatin in patients with both low LDL-C and low HDL-C significantly reduced major coronary events, stroke, and all-cause mortality. The level of HDL-C is crucial to the risk of recurrent CHD events and, consequently, the benefit of lowering LDL-C. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.

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A population-based study was conducted to investigate changes over time in women's well-being and health service use by socio-cconomic status and whether these varied by age. Data from 12,328 mid-age women (aged 45-50 years in 1996) and 10,430 older women (aged 70-75 years) from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health were analysed. The main outcome measures were changes in the eight dimensions of the Short Form General Health Survey (SF-36) adjusted for baseline scores, lifestyle and behavioural factors; health care utilisation at Survey 2; and rate of deaths (older cohort only). Cross-sectional analyses showed clear socioeconomic differentials in well-being for both cohorts. Differential changes in health across tertiles of socioeconomic status (SES) were more evident in the mid-age cohort than in the older cohort. For the mid-aged women in the low SES tertile, declines in physical functioning (adjusted mean change of -2.4, standard error (SE) 1.1) and general health perceptions (-1.5, SE 1.1) were larger than the high SES group (physical functioning -0.8 SE 1.1, general health perceptions -0.8 SE 1.2). In the older cohort, changes in SF-36 scores over time were similar for all SES groups but women in the high SES group had lower death rates than women in the low SES group (relative risk: 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.98). Findings suggest that SES differentials in physical health seem to widen during women's mid-adult years but narrow in older age. Nevertheless, SES remains an important predictor of health, health service use and mortality in older Australian women. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent chronic joint disorder worldwide and is associated with significant pain and disability. Objectives To assess the effects of viscosupplementation in the treatment of OA of the knee. The products were hyaluronan and hylan derivatives (Adant, Arthrum H, Artz (Artzal, Supartz), BioHy (Arthrease, Euflexxa, Nuflexxa), Durolane, Fermathron, Go-On, Hyalgan, Hylan G-F 20 (Synvisc Hylan G-F 20), Hyruan, NRD-101 (Suvenyl), Orthovisc, Ostenil, Replasyn, SLM-10, Suplasyn, Synject and Zeel compositum). Search strategy MEDLINE (up to January (week 1) 2006 for update), EMBASE, PREMEDLINE, Current Contents up to July 2003, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) were searched. Specialised journals and reference lists of identified randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and pertinent review articles up to December 2005 were handsearched. Selection criteria RCTs of viscosupplementation for the treatment of people with a diagnosis of OA of the knee were eligible. Single and double-blinded studies, placebo-based and comparative studies were eligible. At least one of the four OMERACT III core set outcome measures had to be reported (Bellamy 1997). Data collection and analysis Each trial was assessed independently by two reviewers for its methodological quality using a validated tool. All data were extracted by one reviewer and verified by a second reviewer. Continuous outcome measures were analysed as weighted mean differences (WMD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). However, where different scales were used to measure the same outcome, standardized mean differences (SMD) were used. Dichotomous outcomes were analyzed by relative risk (RR). Main results Seventy-six trials with a median quality score of 3 (range 1 to 5) were identified. Follow-up periods varied between day of last injection and eighteen months. Forty trials included comparisons of hyaluronan/hylan and placebo (saline or arthrocentesis), ten trials included comparisons of intra-articular (IA) corticosteroids, six trials included comparisons of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), three trials included comparisons of physical therapy, two trials included comparisons of exercise, two trials included comparisons of arthroscopy, two trials included comparisons of conventional treatment, and fifteen trials included comparisons of other hyaluronans/hylan. The pooled analyses of the effects of viscosupplements against 'placebo' controls generally supported the efficacy of this class of intervention. In these same analyses, differential efficacy effects were observed for different products on different variables and at different timepoints. Of note is the 5 to 13 week post injection period which showed a percent improvement from baseline of 28 to 54% for pain and 9 to 32% for function. In general, comparable efficacy was noted against NSAIDs and longer-term benefits were noted in comparisons against IA corticosteroids. In general, few adverse events were reported in the hyaluronan/hylan trials included in these analyses. Authors' conclusions Based on the aforementioned analyses, viscosupplementation is an effective treatment for OA of the knee with beneficial effects: on pain, function and patient global assessment; and at different post injection periods but especially at the 5 to 13 week post injection period. It is of note that the magnitude of the clinical effect, as expressed by the WMD and standardised mean difference (SMD) from the RevMan 4.2 output, is different for different products, comparisons, timepoints, variables and trial designs. However, there are few randomised head-to-head comparisons of different viscosupplements and readers should be cautious, therefore, in drawing conclusions regarding the relative value of different products. The clinical effect for some products, against placebo, on some variables at some timepoints is in the moderate to large effect-size range. Readers should refer to relevant tables to review specific detail given the heterogeneity in effects across the product class and some discrepancies observed between the RevMan 4.2 analyses and the original publications. Overall, the analyses performed are positive for the HA class and particularly positive for some products with respect to certain variables and timepoints, such as pain on weight bearing at 5 to 13 weeks postinjection. In general, sample-size restrictions preclude any definitive comment on the safety of the HA class of products; however, within the constraints of the trial designs employed no major safety issues were detected. In some analyses viscosupplements were comparable in efficacy to systemic forms of active intervention, with more local reactions but fewer systemic adverse events. In other analyses HA products had more prolonged effects than IA corticosteroids. Overall, the aforementioned analyses support the use of the HA class of products in the treatment of knee OA.