Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

An assessment of criteria to evaluate the graduate education program in Brazil

This study sought to identify criteria adequate for the evaluation of graduate programs in Brazil. A survey was the means for collecting the ratings and rankings given by faculty members at selected Brazilian graduate programs. A questionnaire using Likerttype and ranking items asked the importance attributed by each respondent to each of the 109 items listed. The data analysis reported in this dissertation indicates that the most highly rated criteria and indicators were: (1) Library: current periodicals; (2) Facilities: classrooms and laboratories; (3) Library: books and monographs; (4) Academic Environment: discussion, investigation, and expression; and (5) Facilities: research space and equipment. The study presents the means and standard deviations obtained for each indicator and also includes some figures obtained for a relational analysis. This dissertation was developed to provide useful information to educational planners, policy makers, administrators, and evaluators involved in Brazilian higher education or comparative studies. It is suggested that additional investigations concentrate on more specific and in-depth analysis and interpretation of the policymaking processes, i.e., on the study of social facts or organizational and academic variables in their relationships with aspects of the educational system. The appendices section includes a facsimile of the questionnaire and additional data.

A note on Chambers's "long memory and aggregation in macroeconomic time series"

Chambers (1998) explores the interaction between long memory and aggregation. For continuous-time processes, he takes the aliasing effect into account when studying temporal aggregation. For discrete-time processes, however, he seems to fail to do so. This note gives the spectral density function of temporally aggregated long memory discrete-time processes in light of the aliasing effect. The results are different from those in Chambers (1998) and are supported by a small simulation exercise. As a result, the order of aggregation may not be invariant to temporal aggregation, specifically if d is negative and the aggregation is of the stock type.

Endogenous wage compression and aggregation boundaries in a model of hierarchical human capital

en_US

Temporal aggregation and bandwidth selection in estimating long memory

This paper reinterprets results of Ohanissian et al (2003) to show the asymptotic equivalence of temporally aggregating series and using less bandwidth in estimating long memory by Geweke and Porter-Hudak’s (1983) estimator, provided that the same number of periodogram ordinates is used in both cases. This equivalence is in the sense that their joint distribution is asymptotically normal with common mean and variance and unity correlation. Furthermore, I prove that the same applies to the estimator of Robinson (1995). Monte Carlo simulations show that this asymptotic equivalence is a good approximation in finite samples. Moreover, a real example with the daily US Dollar/French Franc exchange rate series is provided.

European business schools and global leadership: an examination of the admission criteria of the european master in management programs ranked by the Financial Times 2010

O aumento de empresas que operam internacionalmente requer o desenvolvimento de líderes mundiais para colocar as estratégias em prática. Embora este processo de desenvolvimento é importante para o mundo corporativo, muitos futuros executivos são graduados de escolas de administração de empresas que estão intimamente ligados ao mundo de negócios e, portanto, desempenhão um papel importante no processo. Esta pesquisa examina se os programas europeus “Master in Management” classificado pelo Financial Times em 2010 selecionam aqueles candidatos que são mais adequados para o desenvolvimento de liderança global. Portanto, três anteriores meta-estudos são sintetizados para produzir um perfil de competências classificadas de um líder global. Então, informações sobre os critérios de admissão dos programas de mestrado são coletadas e comparadas com este perfil. Os resultados mostram que seis competências são medidas por mais da metade dos programas: proficiência em Inglês, capacidade analítica (racionamento lógico e quantitativo), capacidade de comunicação, conhecimento do negócio global, determinação para alcançar, motivação e capacidade interpessoal. Além disso, as habilidades operacionais requerentes pelos líderes globais não são significativas no processo de admissão e o foco é sobre as habilidades analíticas. Comparação dos resultados com o perfil anteriormente desenvolvido abrangente indica que uma quantidade significativa de programas pode subestimar o significado de habilidades pessoais e características para o desenvolvimento de líderes globais.

Demand aggregation and credit risk effects in pooled procurement: evidence from the Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies

Pooled procurement has an important role in reducing acquisition prices of goods. A pool of buyers, which aggregates demand for its members, increases bargaining power and allows suppliers to achieve economies of scale and scope in the production. Such aggregation demand e ect lowers prices paid for buyers. However, when a buyer with a good reputation for paying suppliers in a timely manner is joined in the pool by a buyer with bad reputation may have its price paid increased due to the credit risk e ect on prices. This will happen because prices paid in a pooled procurement should refect the (higher) average buyers' credit risk. Using a data set on Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, we nd evidence supporting both e ects. We show that the prices paid by public bodies in Brazil are lower when they buy through pooled procurement than individually. On the other hand, federal agencies (i.e. good buyers) pay higher prices for products when they are joined by state agencies (i.e. bad buyers) in a pool. Such evidence suggests that pooled procurement should be carefully designed to avoid that prices paid increase for its members.

Is what you say what you do? Analyzing and comparing the effect of buyer-supplier relationship in the Brazilian and Chinese supplier selection criteria

Choosing properly and efficiently a supplier has been challenging practitioners and academics since 1960’s. Since then, countless studies had been performed and relevant changes in the business scenario were considered such as global sourcing, quality-orientation, just-in-time practices. It is almost consensus that quality should be the selection driver, however, some polemical findings questioned this general agreement. Therefore, one of the objectives of the study was to identify the supplier selection criteria and bring this discussion back again. Moreover, Dickson (1966) suggested existing business relationship as selection criterion, then it was reviewed the importance of business relationship for the company and noted a set of potential negative effects that could rise from it. By considering these side effects of relationship, this research aimed to investigate how the relationship could influence the supplier selection and how its harmful effects could affect the selection process. The impact of this phenomenon was investigated cross-nationally. The research strategy adopted was a controlled experiment via vignette combined with discrete choice analysis. The data collections were performed in China and Brazil. By examining the results, it could be drawn five major findings. First, when purchasers were asked to declare their supplier selection priorities, quality was stated as the most important independently of country and relationship. This result was consistent with diverse studies since 60’s. However, when purchasers were exposed to a multi-criteria trade-off situation, their actual selection priorities deviate from what they had declared. In the actual decision-making without influence of buyer-supplier relationship, Brazilian purchasers focused on price and Chinese buyers prioritized delivery then price. This observation reinforced some controversial prior studies of Verma & Pullman (1998) and Hirakubo & Kublin (1998). Second, through the introduction of the buyer-supplier relationship (operationalized via relational capital) in the supplier selection process, this research extended the existing studies and found that Brazilian buyers still focused on price. The relationship became just another criterion for supplier selection such as quality and delivery. However, from the Chinese sample, the results suggested that quality was totally discarded and the decision was majorly made through price and relationship. The third finding suggested that relational capital could legitimate the quality and sustainability of the supplier and replaces these selection criteria and made the decisional task less complex. Additionally, with the relational capital, the decision-makings were associated to few biases such as availability cognition, commitment, confirmatory and perceived biases. By analyzing the purchasers’ behavior, relational capital inducted buyers of both countries to relax in their purchasing requirements (quality, delivery and sustainability) leading to potential negative effects. In the Brazilian sample, the phenomenon of willing to pay a higher price for a lower quality offer demonstrated to be a potential counterproductive and suboptimal decision. Finally, the last finding was associated to the cultural effect on the buyers’ decisions. From the outcome, it is possible to observe that if a purchaser’s cultural background is more relation-oriented, the more he will tend to use relational capital as a decision heuristic, thus, the purchaser will be more susceptible to the potential relationship’s side effects

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

Effect of the synthetic coumarin, ethyl 2-oxo-2H-chromene-3-carboxylate, on activity of Crotalus durissus ruruima sPLA2 as well as on edema and platelet aggregation induced by this factor

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Harpalycin 2 inhibits the enzymatic and platelet aggregation activities of PrTX-III, a D49 phospholipase A(2) from Bothrops pirajai venom

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Criteria for analysis of the structure of electronic scientific journals

This paper is the result of the Masters dissertation studying the role and history of scientific communication, especially the changes that have occurred after the appearance of electronic communication and computer networks. This study showed that hypertext systems are increasingly being used in the scientific and academic world in the production of electronic journals; this makes it possible for the user to rapidly access information in their area. However, these systems need to be improved to help the user during search and access to information. Both printed journals migrating to electronic media, and the exclusively electronic journals should present the current quality indicators. The attempt was made to discover whether characteristics related to printed journals are being maintained in their electronic counterparts. For this, a prototype model was developed to analyze the structure of electronic scientific journals; it composes 14 criteria expressing aspects of quality for these journals. It includes elements of Website Information Architecture and those already in place in printed scientific journals in order to ensure that basic functions - archiving and dissemination - are maintained in electronic publishing. Each criterion consists of variables, which measure the maintenance of these functions both in the migrating printed journals and the exclusively electronic ones. This prototype model was used to analyze Ciência da Informação On-line and DataGramaZero - Revista de Ciência da Informação. Results indicate that this model is able to find out if the basic functions of archiving and dissemination are being maintained in electronic journals. Therefore, its implementation is justified in electronic journals. The model can help librarians, authors, and users of electronic journals to identify quality journals, and assist editors in developing their projects. The material from the study may be included in the preservice and inservice education of Information Science professionals and to support editors of scientific journals.

Validação de conteúdo do instrumento para consulta de enfermagem na visita domiciliar às pessoas com lesão medular: um enfoque no autocuidado

This study aimed to validate the contents of an Instrument for Nursing Consultation in the Home Visit of people with Spinal Cord Injury (INCEVDOP-LM), based on the Self-Care Deficit Theory. The methodological development study was conducted with spinal cord injured (SCI) people ascribed in the Family Health Units the city of Natal/RN/Brazil, and with the nurses of these institutions. The study was conducted from Januray 2012 to January 2013 in two phases: the first aimed to identify the need for self-care of persons with SCI, and the second to develop and validate the INCEVDOP-LM. The first phase consisted of a census study of people with SCI living in Natal/RN. In the second phase, a non-probabilistic convencience sample of subjects was selected to form two groups: First stage - Group 1 of the first stage was comprised by 73 adults with SCI diagnosed with paraplegia or tetraplegia, with cognitive function preserved and that were registered to some family health unit; Group 2 of the Second phase was composed of six experts that were nurses with doctoral formation, scientific experience in the area of technology development or assistance to persons with SCI, and with publications in periodicals Qualis A2. Data collection of the first phase was conducted through home visits of people with SCI that responded three instruments: Questionnaire I (comprised of demographic and socioeconomic variables), The Competency Rating Scale for Self-care (ASA) and the Barthel Index (an instrument for evaluation of functional capacity). The research for the second phase was conducted in two stages: I-construction of the INCEVDOP LM; II-validation of the INCEVDOP-LM. The instrument and an evaluation form were forwarded to the experts for the validation. The correlations between the responses were analyzed by the Kappa test, with accepting values of>0.75. The evaluation criteria were: organization, clarity, simplicity, readability, appropriateness of vocabulary, objectivity, accuracy, reliability and suitability and the positive responses with frequency values of≥90% were considered excellent. The chi-square test was used to investigate the differences between proportions. The study attended to the principles of Human Rights CNS Resolution 196/96. Results were reported by means of four articles derived from the study. The findings indicate that the items that showed disagreement among experts (k=0.02) were diagnoses, interventions and evaluation of the nursing features pertaining to the domains of Nutrition, Hygiene, Elimination, Physical, Social and Psychological, and of the Ability to perform work activities feature. Agreement among the experts were reported for the other items, with kappa ranging from 0.72 to 1. After removing items with disagreement, all criteria achieved excellent rates and no significant differences were observed between the proportions of responses of evaluation of experts (p>0.05). We conclude that the instrument shows validity to serve as a guide for nurses to conduct a systematic consultation during the home visit to people with spinal cord injury, with emphasis on self-care. The instrument must go through other levels of validation when applied in the clinical setting

O conhecimento e as atitudes das famílias de pacientes em tratamento em tuberculose na atenção primária à saúde

This study thus sought to examine knowledge about TB and attitudes of patients families in disease treatment in Primary Health Care in Natal- RN. To this end, a cross-sectional study was undertaken through a questionnaire with families of patients diagnosed with TB and follow up by APS from Natal. The study subjects were recruited from a non-probabilistic way, by convenience, contemplating a sample of 50 families. Among the criteria considered for inclusion of subjects, older than 18 years were considered, as well as residing with the TB patient and in Natal and availability to participate in the research. Data collection was performed by own researcher and an assistant, through a questionnaire with families of patients diagnosed with TB following the double independent digitalization of data. In the analytical phase, was initially conducted an exploratory phase and univariate data, with description of the position measurements (mean, median, mode) and dispersion (confidence interval and standard deviation). In bivariate analysis, it was conducted an intersection of dependent variables of knowledge e and changes of attitude dichotomous, with each of the independent variables, using contingency tables and calculating the chi-square test and, when appropriate, the Fisher exact test. In 2x2 tables, calculated the odds ratio (OR) with confidence intervals of 95% (95% CI). From the selected sample, 43 (86%) subjects were female, average age and median respectively of 46.64 and 46.50 years, 25 (50%) had elementary school. The knowledge expressed by family members about TB was considered satisfactory. However, the lack of interest of the family (54%) in seeking information about tuberculosis; the wrong way of reply in relation to the organism causing the disease (64%); the water content (62%) and contaminated food (54% ) as a means of spreading TB was a weakness identified in the investigation. Regarding the time of transmission, 90% of respondents indicated not know or answered wrong. From investigated independent variables, only two were associated with lack of knowledge of TB, and they did not have religion (OR: 0.146, 95% CI: 0.027 to 0.800) and income below 1, 7 minimum wages (OR: 0.155, 95% CI: 0.029 to 0.813). Thus they seem to exercise a protective effect on this outcome. As for the changes in attitude, most of the found variables had no association with statistical significance, except no internet access (OR: 0.212, 95% CI: 0,048-0, 935). Most attitudes were positive in relation to TB patient. Results have demonstrated weaknesses in TB care, which has taken on a more individual and welfare character. Data not only express health outcomes produced by health services, but also the political and social situation of the families that are affected by TB

Carbohydrate Composition and Water-Stable Aggregation of an Oxisol as Affected by Crop Sequence under No-Till

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)