Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research

"Most quantitative empirical analyses are motivated by the desire to estimate the causal effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable. Although the randomized experiment is the most powerful design for this task, in most social science research done outside of psychology, experimental designs are infeasible. (Winship & Morgan, 1999, p. 659)." This quote from earlier work by Winship and Morgan, which was instrumental in setting the groundwork for their book, captures the essence of our review of Morgan and Winship's book: It is about causality in nonexperimental settings.

Chiroptical measurement of chiral aggregates at liquid-liquid interface in centrifugal liquid membrane cell by Mueller matrix and conventional circular dichroism methods

The centrifugal liquid membrane (CLM) cell has been utilized for chiroptical studies of liquid-liquid interfaces with a conventional circular dichroism (CD) spectropolarimeter. These studies required the characterization of optical properties of the rotating cylindrical CLM glass cell, which was used under the high speed rotation. In the present study, we have measured the circular and linear dichroism (CD and LD) spectra and the circular and linear birefringence (CB and LB) spectra of the CLM cell itself as well as those of porphyrine aggregates formed at the liquid-liquid interface in the CLM cell, applying Mueller matrix measurement method. From the results, it was confirmed that the CLM-CD spectra of the interfacial porphyrin aggregates observed by a conventional CD spectropolarimeter should be correct irrespective of LD and LB signals in the CLM cell.

Deicer Scaling Resistance of Concrete Mixtures Containing Slag Cement Phase 2: Evaluation of Different Laboratory Scaling Test Methods, TPF-5(100), 2012

With the use of supplementary cementing materials (SCMs) in concrete mixtures, salt scaling tests such as ASTM C672 have been found to be overly aggressive and do correlate well with field scaling performance. The reasons for this are thought to be because at high replacement levels, SCM mixtures can take longer to set and to develop their properties: neither of these factors is taken into account in the standard laboratory finishing and curing procedures. As a result, these variables were studied as well as a modified scaling test, based on the Quebec BNQ scaling test that had shown promise in other research. The experimental research focused on the evaluation of three scaling resistance tests, including the ASTM C672 test with normal curing as well as an accelerated curing regime used by VDOT for ASTM C1202 rapid chloride permeability tests and now included as an option in ASTM C1202. As well, several variations on the proposed draft ASTM WK9367 deicer scaling resistance test, based on the Quebec Ministry of Transportation BNQ test method, were evaluated for concretes containing varying amounts of slag cement. A total of 16 concrete mixtures were studied using both high alkali cement and low alkali cement, Grade 100 slag and Grade 120 slag with 0, 20, 35 and 50 percent slag replacement by mass of total cementing materials. Vinsol resin was used as the primary air entrainer and Micro Air® was used in two replicate mixes for comparison. Based on the results of this study, a draft alternative test method to ASTM C762 is proposed.

A comparison of three methods of Mendelian randomization when the genetic instrument, the risk factor and the outcome are all binary.

The method of instrumental variable (referred to as Mendelian randomization when the instrument is a genetic variant) has been initially developed to infer on a causal effect of a risk factor on some outcome of interest in a linear model. Adapting this method to nonlinear models, however, is known to be problematic. In this paper, we consider the simple case when the genetic instrument, the risk factor, and the outcome are all binary. We compare via simulations the usual two-stages estimate of a causal odds-ratio and its adjusted version with a recently proposed estimate in the context of a clinical trial with noncompliance. In contrast to the former two, we confirm that the latter is (under some conditions) a valid estimate of a causal odds-ratio defined in the subpopulation of compliers, and we propose its use in the context of Mendelian randomization. By analogy with a clinical trial with noncompliance, compliers are those individuals for whom the presence/absence of the risk factor X is determined by the presence/absence of the genetic variant Z (i.e., for whom we would observe X = Z whatever the alleles randomly received at conception). We also recall and illustrate the huge variability of instrumental variable estimates when the instrument is weak (i.e., with a low percentage of compliers, as is typically the case with genetic instruments for which this proportion is frequently smaller than 10%) where the inter-quartile range of our simulated estimates was up to 18 times higher compared to a conventional (e.g., intention-to-treat) approach. We thus conclude that the need to find stronger instruments is probably as important as the need to develop a methodology allowing to consistently estimate a causal odds-ratio.

Using register data to assess the impact of response enhancement methods on the risk of nonresponse bias and survey costs

The pursuit of high response rates to minimise the threat of nonresponse bias continues to dominate decisions about resource allocation in survey research. Yet a growing body of research has begun to question this practice. In this study, we use previously unavailable data from a new sampling frame based on population registers to assess the value of different methods designed to increase response rates on the European Social Survey in Switzerland. Using sampling data provides information about both respondents and nonrespondents, making it possible to examine how changes in response rates resulting from the use of different fieldwork methods relate to changes in the composition and representativeness of the responding sample. We compute an R-indicator to assess representativity with respect to the sampling register variables, and find little improvement in the sample composition as response rates increase. We then examine the impact of response rate increases on the risk of nonresponse bias based on Maximal Absolute Bias (MAB), and coefficients of variation between subgroup response rates, alongside the associated costs of different types of fieldwork effort. The results show that increases in response rate help to reduce MAB, while only small but important improvements to sample representativity are gained by varying the type of effort. These findings lend further support to research that has called into question the value of extensive investment in procedures aimed at reaching response rate targets and the need for more tailored fieldwork strategies aimed both at reducing survey costs and minimising the risk of bias.

Direct in vitro comparison of six three-dimensional positive contrast methods for susceptibility marker imaging.

PURPOSE: To compare different techniques for positive contrast imaging of susceptibility markers with MRI for three-dimensional visualization. As several different techniques have been reported, the choice of the suitable method depends on its properties with regard to the amount of positive contrast and the desired background suppression, as well as other imaging constraints needed for a specific application. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Six different positive contrast techniques are investigated for their ability to image at 3 Tesla a single susceptibility marker in vitro. The white marker method (WM), susceptibility gradient mapping (SGM), inversion recovery with on-resonant water suppression (IRON), frequency selective excitation (FSX), fast low flip-angle positive contrast SSFP (FLAPS), and iterative decomposition of water and fat with echo asymmetry and least-squares estimation (IDEAL) were implemented and investigated. RESULTS: The different methods were compared with respect to the volume of positive contrast, the product of volume and signal intensity, imaging time, and the level of background suppression. Quantitative results are provided, and strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches are discussed. CONCLUSION: The appropriate choice of positive contrast imaging technique depends on the desired level of background suppression, acquisition speed, and robustness against artifacts, for which in vitro comparative data are now available.

Reactivity of silicate liming materials from Northern Europe assessed by Soil Incubation and two pH Stat methods

Selostus: Pohjois-Euroopan silikaattisten kalkitusaineiden reaktiivisuus astiakoemenetelmällä ja kahdella pH-staattisella menetelmällä arvioituna

Radiosurgery for brain metastases: specific indications for Gamma Knife in lieu of Linac in a single center using both methods

INTRODUCTION: Radiosurgery (RS) is gaining increasing acceptance in the upfront management of brain metastases (BM). It was initially used in so-called radioresistant metastases (melanoma, renal cell, sarcoma) because it allowed delivering higher dose to the tumor. Now, RS is also used for BM of other cancers. The risk of high incidence of new BM questions the need for associated whole-brain radiotherapy (WBRT). Recent evidence suggests that RS alone allows avoiding cognitive impairment related to WBRT, and the latter should be upheld for salvage therapy. Thus the increase use of RS for single and multiple BM raises new technical challenges for treatment delivery and dosimetry. We present our single institution experience focusing on the criteria that led to patients' selection for RS treatment with Gamma Knife (GK) in lieu of Linac. METHODS: Leksell Gamma Knife Perfexion (Elekta, Sweden) was installed in July 2010. Currently, the Swiss federal health care supports the costs of RS for BM with Linac but not with GK. Therefore, in our center, we always consider first the possibility to use Linac for this indication, and only select patients for GK in specific situations. All cases of BM treated with GK were retrospectively reviewed for criteria yielding to GK indication, clinical information, and treatment data. Further work in progress includes a posteriori dosimetry comparison with our Linac planning system (Brainscan V.5.3, Brainlab, Germany). RESULTS: From July 2010 to March 2012, 20 patients had RS for BM with GK (7 patients with single BM, and 13 with multiple BM). During the same period, 31 had Linac-based RS. Primary tumor was melanoma in 9, lung in 7, renal in 2, and gastrointestinal tract in 2 patients. In single BM, the reason for choosing of GK was the anatomical location close to, or in highly functional areas (1 motor cortex, 1 thalamic, 1 ventricular, 1 mesio-temporal, 3 deep cerebellar close to the brainstem), especially since most of these tumors were intended to be treated with high-dose RS (24 Gy at margin) because of their histology (3 melanomas, 1 renal cell). In multiple BM, the reason for choosing GK in relation with the anatomical location of the lesions was either technical (limitations of Linac movements, especially in lower posterior fossa locations) or closeness of multiple lesions to highly functional areas (typically, multiple posterior fossa BM close to the brainstem), precluding optimal dosimetry with Linac. Again, this was made more critical for multiple BM needing high-dose RS (6 melanoma, 2 hypernephroma). CONCLUSION: Radiosurgery for BM may represent some technical challenge in relation with the anatomical location and multiplicity of the lesions. These considerations may be accentuated for so-called radioresistant BM, when higher dose RS in needed. In our experience, Leksell Gamma Knife Perfexion proves to be useful in addressing these challenges for the treatment of BM.